I had a look through the riding results and it seems that, on a uniform swing of just taking votes from the Liberals and adding them to the CPC (unrealistic of course but a rough guide), to become the largest party the CPC would have needed to win Peterborough-Kawartha (if they won that and all seats the Liberals beat them in by a smaller margin they'd have 137 seats to 135 for the Liberals). Peterborough-Kawartha was won by the Liberals by a margin of 4.36% (while they lost the popular vote remember), so a 5.7% popular vote win was needed by the CPC just to get a bare minority.
That's a... serious handicap, if it carries over going forward (which of course it might not, since Canada sometimes has weird provincial trends).
Case in point, the NDP flopping in Quebec this time, after the Orange Crush of 2011. Also, the huge Green surges in NB and PE versus the Conservative surge in NL (which ironically probably helped the NDP take St John’s East).
Here’s a vote table from Matthew Isbell
