Canadian Election 2019

[vileplume]

Trudeau will probably win reelection this fall regardless of the scandals.

Very possible, I think a big question is while the many normally non-voters who showed in 2015 show up again.  Amongst Liberal voters in 2015, the only ones I can see switching to the Tories are those that normally vote conservative and their vote in 2015 was a one off, so simply returning to normal voting patterns and that group on its own is not large enough to get Scheer into government.  Trudeau's bigger problem is much of his win in 2015 was based less on switching voters from other parties over (although did gain a lot of NDP ones from 2011, less so from the Tories), but rather getting many non-voters to show up and vote Liberal.  With this, there is a risk many of the first time voters in 2015 might just stay home whereas the Tory vote is very motivated and you can be sure they will show up.  Otherwise I think turnout is key.  If turnout is again in the high 60s, I still like his odds, but if falls to low 60s gets more competitive and if it falls below 60% then I think the Tories have a good shot.  Actually not just in Canada, but US and UK too turnout seems to be the big factor in determining whether right or left wins as left tends to do better when turnout is high while right when low.

That is true to an extent though it's not really cut and dried. In 2017 first time voters and people who didn't vote in 2015 (mostly young, ethnically diverse, economically insecure, remain supporters) broke extremely heavily in Labour's direction and will alone have cost the Tories their majority. However on the other hand people who don't regularly vote turning out for the EU referendum (middle aged to retired people living in small town and post industrial areas) were the main reason why Leave won. If turnout falls amongst these types of people going forward it will help Labour and hurt the Tories. The Lib Dems are the party that benefits most from low turnout though as most low information/irregular voters tend to opt for the party that they want to form the government in general elections i.e. Tory or Labour.

[vileplume]

I don't think income has as big an impact on voting as it used to.  Lots of poor people nowadays vote Tory (not here by elsewhere) while many upper middle class types vote NDP (super wealthy don't, but not many of them to begin with).

And oftentime, it's not about income so much as lifestyle-sorting; that is, areas like Trinity-Bellwoods may be trending upward, but those who are opting into such neighbourhoods also tend to opt into the leftish politics thereof, however "promiscuous" their leftism may be.

Same reason why New York, London, Paris have trended leftward even as they've gentrified out of "affordability".

That's not what happened with London. The Tory collapse in London is caused by several factors:
1)Property in the wealthiest parts of London have been bought up as investments by the global super rich who can't vote. This has significantly increased the voting power of the poorer areas compared the wealthier areas.
2)Home ownership has collapsed with sky rocketing rents. One of the biggest indicators of whether someone is likely to be a Tory voter or not is if they own their own home (especially if they don't have a mortgage) because such people are more financially secure. In London though a disproportionate amount of people rent and given rents are so high many people actually have very little in the way of disposable income even if they have a good job on paper. Such people also have little to nothing in the way of savings making them very financially insecure and thus not very likely to be a Tory voter.
3)Previously respectable 'middle of the road' suburbs succumbing to urban decline. Going back several decades places like Enfield and Mitcham whilst hardly salubrious were unremarkable, bog-standard suburbia that was open to voting Conservative. However in recent decades many of the middle class/skilled working class residents left and moved to the Home Counties e.g. people from Mitcham moved to Epsom, Enfield to Cheshunt etc. Their former homes were often bought up by landlords and former family homes become rented out by room (as this is more profitable) and the areas went into sharp decline.

I don't pretend to be an expert on Toronto but I imagine the reason why your Conservatives struggle is down to similar factors i.e. the super rich buying up housing as investments leading to under-occupancy in the wealthy parts of the city, high rents and a collapse in home ownership leading to severe financial insecurity and Conservative inclined suburbanites moving to greener pastures beyond the city limits. The theory that's often trotted out of the cities moving left because the wealthy upper middle class are becoming left wing is a myth. Look at the UK's poverty statistics for example, even the stereo-typically rich parts of London have high rates of poverty even though it is more 'hidden' than it is in other parts of the country.

[vileplume]

Look what a difference it makes when a riding poll gives names of local candidates and not just party names. Ruth Ellen Brosseau of the NDP has a solid lead in her riding

https://www.lenouvelliste.ca/elections-2019/sondage-mainstreetle-nouvelliste-ruth-ellen-brosseau-en-avance-4607807cf318e4b2f98464ccb10f20fa

THIS!
When you don't provide local context, this how polling is used to sku, to mis-inform and to actually try and sway an election. Voters always vote, effectively, twice; the candidate on the ballot and the party.

Anyway, I always thought REB was "mostly safe"
I'd like to see how the other dozen or so NPD held ridings would be polled now, My hunch is the NPD could hold 4-6 mostly on the local candidate. (Caron, Boulerice, REB, PLD) I think demographically Laurier--Sainte-Marie and Hochelaga are likely to be NPD holds even without incumbents.  
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou I think the NPDs candidate has a strong chance, more then in Abitibi—Témiscamingue, but QS was elected out this way so the advantage might be the NPD there.
The rest, probably lost to the LPC or BQ, unless the NPD is lucky.  

Not necessarily, beware local polls with named candidates particularly because the kind of people likely to respond to such surveys tend to have much greater political knowledge than the electorate at large. At the end of the day most 'normal' people have a much stronger opinion on the national party leaders than they do on local candidates (often they don't even know or even care who's standing for their local district) and thus primarily vote based on which leader/party they want to be in charge of the country. In the UK in 2015 for example local constituency polls had the Lib Dems holding lots of constituencies particularly in the West Country based on the personal popularity of the incumbent. In the end virtually all of their MPs (even in seats considered safe like Yeovil) went down in flames as they were dragged down by the huge anti-Lib Dem movement of the country as a whole.

Whilst I don't claim to be an expert on Quebec, it is very unlikely that Ruth Ellen-Brosseau's riding will completely buck the movement of the province as a whole. Thus if the NDP does as appallingly in Quebec as the polls are suggesting, it's very likely she'll be dragged down by the tide regardless of any personal popularity (which is usually grossly exaggerated anyway) that she may have.

[vileplume]

One thing I don't understand is why the Liberals didn't use their majority to push through ranked ballot legislation when they had the chance.  It would have set them up for almost perpetual majority governments.

And I REALLY don't understand why the Ontario Liberals didn't do it too.

The consensus coming out of consultations was that Canadians preferred some sort of PR system. Changing the vote system to favour your party, against what the people wanted, would be an extremely risky proposition, like calling a snap election early in one's mandate.

That especially goes for Ontario. "Premier 12% Approval Rating changes electoral system to favour her party" ain't a great headline.

True, but the worst part of the headline is "Premier 12% Approval Rating".

Voters don't care a lot for the 'inside baseball' stuff, as much as we pundits might like to think.  Despite the Fair Vote folks claiming that huge majorities of Canadians favour Proportional Representation, those numbers seem to evaporate whenever a plebiscite is held.

Ranked ballots would have kept the 'electoral reform' promise without bringing in the transformative effects of PR.  Voters would still keep their local MP/MPP, and no one would get elected without majority(-ish) support of the voters.  The NDP and Greens might howl, but the Liberals would get the benefit of strategic voting without having to force people to vote against their first choice.  

And it could have the added effect of splitting the Tories into further factions.  A new SoCon party could run unabashedly against abortion and gay rights, with the assumption that their supporters would give the Conservatives their second ranking.  How well would the PPC be doing now under ranked ballots, if their voters knew they could oppose immigration without helping to re-elect Trudeau?

Frankly, I see far more upside to the Liberals if they had just plunged right through the line.

Don't the Liberals have a right flank (the blue liberals, whom are extremely prominent in some of the wealthier parts of Canada) that would almost certainly peel off under this scenario?

Whatever the (fair) electoral system you devise you will always get governments of both the left and of the right over the years. Changing the electoral system will only allow for the wide range of views that exist in society to each have their own political party and basically not force people with very different views to share a 'broad church' political party (a good thing IMO). If you think proportional representation will lead to permanent left rule (or right rule for that matter) then you are utterly delusional and clearly have no idea how people vote or how democracy works.

[vileplume]

Im no Canadian election expert, but it’s probably a good thing for the Conservatives if they’re already leading in 8 ridings in a region where they won none in 2015.

Well it was raining in NB today.

Are left wing voters allergic to water?

[vileplume]

Im no Canadian election expert, but it’s probably a good thing for the Conservatives if they’re already leading in 8 ridings in a region where they won none in 2015.

Well it was raining in NB today.

Are left wing voters allergic to water?

Yes. Yes, we are.

Hmm explains the smell...

[vileplume]

Seat flips:

Con gain from Lib (21):
-West Nova (NS)
-Fundy Royal (NB)
-New Brunswick Southwest (NB)
-Tobique-Mactaquac (NB)
-Chicoutimi-Le Fjord (QC)
-Hastings-Lennox and Addington (ON)
-Northumberland-Peterborough South (ON)
-Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill (ON)*
-Kenora (ON)
-Kildonan-St. Paul (MB)
-Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley (MB)*
-Regina-Wascana (SK)
-Calgary Centre (AB)
-Calgary Skyview (AB)
-Edmonton Mill Woods (AB)
-Edmonton Centre (AB)
-Kelowna-Lake Country (BC)
-Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon (BC)
-Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge (BC)
-Cloverdale-Langley City (BC)
-Steveston-Richmond East (BC)

Bloc gain from NDP (11):
-Rimouski-Neigette-Témiscouata-Les Basques*
-Jonquière
-Berthier-Maskinongé
-Trois-Rivières
-Drummond
-Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot
-Beloeil-Chambly
-Longueuil-Saint-Hubert
-Salaberry-Suroît
-Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou*
-Abitibi-Témiscamingue

Bloc gain from Lib (8 ):
-Avignon-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia*
-Laurentides-Labelle
-Shefford
-Saint-Jean
-La Prarie
-Montarville
-Thérèse-De Blainville
-Rivière-des-Mille-Îles

Con gain from NDP (6):
-Essex (ON)
-Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River (SK)*
-Saskatoon West (SK)
-Regina-Lewvan (SK)
-Kootenay-Columbia (BC)
-Port Moody-Coquitlam (BC)

Lib gain from NDP (5):
-Sherbrooke (QC)
-Hochelaga (QC)
-Laurier-Sainte-Marie (QC)
-Outremont (QC)
-Windsor-Tecumseh (ON)

Bloc gain from Con (3):
-Lac-Saint-Jean
-Beauport—Côte-de-Beaupré—Île d'Orléans—Charlevoix *
-Beauport—Limoilou

NDP gain from Lib (3):
-St. John's East (NL)
-Winnipeg Centre (MB)
-Nunavut (NU)

Lib gain from Con (2):
-Milton (ON)
-Kitchener-Conestoga (ON-lead)

Green gain from Lib (1):
-Fredricton (NB)

Green gain from NDP (1):
-Nanaimo-Ladysmith (BC)

Ind gain from Lib (1):
-Vancouver Granville (BC)

(*Seriously some of these names could do with being shortened)

[vileplume]

I honestly am very worried that those urban Toronto ridings like Danforth/PHP/Davenport might be becoming solid Liberal instead of ridings we have a shot in. We completely and utterly tanked in those ridings, even with strong candidates.

Well Davenport was very close and actually had the tiniest of swings to the NDP (Liberal margin went down from 2.9% to 2.8%). The others were indeed poor for the NDP though: Toronto-Danforth 14.4% Liberal margin, up from 2.2% and Parkdale-High Park 16.8% Liberal margin, up from 1.8%.

The Toronto seat the Tories were closest in was Willowdale (12.9% Liberal margin, down from 16.4%) followed by Scarborough-Agincourt (13.1% Liberal margin, down from 13.9%) and then York Centre (13.7% Liberal margin, up from 2.9%).

[vileplume]

BC might be different, also disappointing especially not picking up Burnaby North-Seymor and losing Port-Moody-Coquitlam (But only by 300 votes or so). While the Green breakthrough did not happen and the NDP saved their seats on the Island, the Greens cost them half a dozen seats in the Lower Mainland.

Half a dozen in the lower mainland of BC??! The only seats there with Green vote greater than the margin the NDP lost were aforementioned Burnaby North-Seymour and Port Moody-Coquitlam, there are no others. Plus you can't assume that all Green voters would pick the NDP as their second choice, a large number would pick the Liberals or simply not vote at all.

[vileplume]

BC and Alberta being politically aligned in the Reform/Alliance days seems so long ago...

BC is still under the present electoral arrangement a conservative province. Vancouver's growth is hampered by geography and it's votes are fragmented. As long as the non-tory vote keeps getting cut into 20-20-20 (a simplification) chunks, the Tories will  waltz to popular vote victories thanks to the interior and seat count victories via vote splits in the suburbs. They did it under Harper and they did it this week. BC though is one of those places though if you forced people to pick a loyal-left or a loyal-right, when they both have realistic shots at power unlike 2011, they will pick loyal-left. The BC liberals provincially have a distinct brand from other local provincial conservative parties which allows them to win the two-party contests with the NDP.

I don't think you can say that at all.

If you look at the Tory held seats in Greater Vancouver the equivalent areas are mostly also represented by the (centre-right) provincial Liberals. As people have said on here multiple times the federal Liberal vote is not uniformly left-wing in the slightest and in the case where people were forced to choose between a 'right block' and a 'left block' a large chunk of the current federal Liberals would choose the 'right block' (indeed a number of Liberal seats in the region e.g. Delta, Vancouver Quadra, Vancouver South etc. may well vote for this 'right block' too).

[vileplume]

1917 really was one crazy election. Conscription was the ultimate wedge issue.

Yes indeed, though - to my surprise, looking over the figures - the Tories' biggest margin in that election was 79.2% in Brandon; had expected this figure to exceed comfortably Damien Kurek's 80.4% margin of last week, but apparently it didn't. (The 89.6% of the vote won in Brandon exceeded the 85.5% in Battle River – Crowfoot, of course.)

The biggest Liberal win was in Bellechasse, where they got 97.7% of the vote to 1.6% for the Tories - a 96.1% margin of victory, that hasn't been exceeded by anybody since.

In the early days, one sometimes saw a high-profile member opposed by an independent or maybe a token Liberal/Tory, and the margins could be very lopsided. I can't be certain that those two shares of the vote weren't exceeded in one of the first few General Elections, though if they were it wouldn't have been by very much . . .

Which interestingly is now the safest Tory seat in Quebec!