Canadian Election 2019

[VPH]

Christine Moore, NDP MP for Abitibi-Témiscamingue will not run again. She can be added to the list of incumbents not running.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election#Incumbents_not_running_for_reelection

She had a lot of bad press recently and was never offered a senior role by Mulcair or Singh this Parliament.

Very likely Liberal gain.

I find that Northern Ontario's remaining strength for Liberals and the NDP contradicts the seeming worldwide trend of rural extractive areas moving rightward. Even in BC, the Kootenays are drifting rightward.

[VPH]

Comprehensive pharmacare by 2020 is ambitious to say the least

[VPH]

Very saddened by Deepak Obhrai's loss. I had the pleasure of meeting him at a small campaign event in Montreal when he ran for leader. He entertained us all with stories of defeating the political establishment. What a great guy and somebody dedicated to all Canadians.

[VPH]

It seems in the possibility of winning seats, the plural is important. I don't know if the criteria is two or it's more.

The commission has consulted available opinion polls, riding projection sites and independent pollsters. None of these sources project, at this time, that the People's Party of Canada has a legitimate chance to elect more than one candidate," Johnston said.

Johnston said the decision to exclude Bernier could be reversed if the party submits a list of three to five ridings where the party believes it is most likely to elect a candidate — and then, Johnston said, the debate commission would conduct independent polling of its own in those ridings to verify that Bernier's chosen candidate has a reasonable chance of winning that seat.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/leaders-debate-commission-maxime-bernier-out-1.5244287

I wonder what seats Bernier sees as the most winnable for the PPC. Maybe some of the former Tory MPs? I don't think anybody else has a chance at winning aside from Bernier, but maybe some can hit 10% of the vote, which would be doubtful for debate qualification.

[VPH]

  Quebec question.  Would there be a lot of potential tory voters who might vote tactically for the Bloc as a good way to defeat either a Liberal or NDP candidate, with the idea that a Bloc MP would be a potential vote for toleration of a minority Scheer government?

No. First of all very very few voters are that "strategic" and especially not in Quebec. There has been zero discussion of how the BQ would act in a minority situation and in fact if there was much discussion of the BQ being willing to tolerate a Scheer government - it would likely harm the BQ since a lot of their voters are very anti-Conservative. In any case the number of "core" Tory voters is very small in Quebec and any votes they get beyond the 15% mark are largely "non-of the-above" votes from people who might have voted NDP or BQ in the past..

Really depends on what part of Quebec we're talking though. There is definitely a large Tory "core" vote in the Quebec City suburbs and exurbs.

[VPH]

The data shows that the Orange Wave in Quebec was propelled largely by soft-nationalist voters who had an (at times uncomfortable) home in the Bloc voting for the NDP instead. As others correctly note, this represents a return of the soft nationalists to the Bloc Quebecois. Blanchet is effectively running the sort of campaign that puts Quebec interests first as opposed to a declining hardline secession. Those who pronounced the death of the Bloc with the disappearance of their seeming driving issue forgot that the nationalism underpinning separatist demands hasn't gone away even if their policy end has become unpopular.

[VPH]

Other than BQ being weaker and the CPC vote share actually beat LPC is this election not just a repeat of 2004 ?

tbh the map even kind of looks similar

[VPH]

My question is whether any of the losing Tory leadership contenders (or O'Leary) would have done better than Scheer. I'm inclined to think that Lisa Raitt wouldn't have alienated as any moderates as Scheer did and probably would have won. Same goes for somebody like Peter MacKay, who of course did not run. Erin O'Toole and some of the others, maybe.

O'Leary or Bernier would have been real wildcards. I don't think Bernier would have stood much of a chance at victory as Tory leader.

[VPH]

Seat composition in three regional pockets with a history of industrial trade unionism and working class social democracy.

Windsor-Essex

2019  NDP 1, Liberals 1, Conservatives 1
2015 NDP 3
2011 NDP 2, Conservatives 1
2008 NDP 2, Conservatives 1
2006 NDP 2, Conservatives 1

Hamilton-Niagara

2019 Liberals 4, Conservatives 3, NDP 2
2015 Liberals 4, Conservatives 3, NDP 2
2011 NDP 4, Conservatives 4
2008 NDP 4, Conservatives 4
2006 Conservatives 4, NDP 3, Liberals 1

Northern Ontario

2019 Liberals 6, NDP 2, Conservatives 1
2015 Liberals 7, NDP 2
2011 NDP 6, Conservatives 3
2008 NDP 7, Conservatives 2, Liberals 1
2006 Liberals 7, NDP 2

It's interesting that the right hasn't advanced as much in these areas as demographic trends in other Western democracies (US, France, UK) would suggest. Sure, you had Kenora and a few swings towards the Tories in various places, but the rural and blue-collar center-left seems oddly resistant in Ontario. Unionization perhaps? Higher indigenous populations in Northern ridings? I've wondered about this for a few years.

[VPH]

It's interesting that the right hasn't advanced as much in these areas as demographic trends in other Western democracies (US, France, UK) would suggest. Sure, you had Kenora and a few swings towards the Tories in various places, but the rural and blue-collar center-left seems oddly resistant in Ontario. Unionization perhaps? Higher indigenous populations in Northern ridings? I've wondered about this for a few years.

Should also note these regions with a tradition of class-based support for the ''labor party'' went NDP in the last provincial election and resisitedn even though Doug Ford had a strong blue collar/populist appeal.

Right--Ford made much stronger inroads into diverse working and middle-class suburban ridings. Even in 1995, Mike Harris, a populist, didn't do well at all in Northern Ontario.