Canadian Election 2019

[Njall]

I think it would be a mistake for Tories to rely heavily on personal attacks on Lil Justin. I understand there's something about his personality that drives the cadre nuts, but it's clear your median swing voters don't share this antipathy, finding him on balance a nice enough person. For some reason, the conservative party of Canada really likes its negative campaigning, but I don't see it working unless combined with some national recession (which of course can't be ruled out).

Weird question: can Liberals penetrate more of Calgary, given their liberal Mayor and vast expanding population?

Unless oil rebounds strongly, they will be lucky to hold the two seats they hold.  While not Trudeau's fault for lack of pipeline being built or low oil prices, being government of the day doesn't help.  That being said Calgary-Confederation is probably the lowest hanging fruit.

In terms of Tories attacks, agreed as the base hates Trudeau with a passion but amongst swing voters they don't love Trudeau but don't either hate him with a passion.

I would be very surprised if my hometown swung any more towards the Liberals in 2019. Had Hehr and Kang not both received sexual harassment allegations, they may have been able to keep their seats, but the Liberals now have pretty slim odds in both seats. That said, it's worth noting that Calgary Skyview behaves very differently than the rest of Calgary, so if the Liberals find a strong on-the-ground candidate and Kang doesn't try to run as an Indy, they could still win. Depending on candidates, Centre and Confederation will be close, but ultimately I think the Conservatives will win both.

Calgary is an interesting case because it has a growing small-l liberal streak, but still votes big-C Conservative in partisan elections overall. With a rapidly expanding, young, and highly educated population, Calgary will continue to become friendlier to progressive candidates as time goes on, but it will take time and a concentrated effort by parties and candidates to break the Conservative hold on the city.

[Njall]

I'm saddened by his loss as well. In a city like Calgary, Conservative MPs like Mr. Obhrai with such spirit and personality are a rarity, and he was a refreshing exception.

I will wait with muted anticipation to see who the party appoints to replace him.

[Njall]

When's the writ of election dropping anyway? Assuming the election is late October I would've thought the vote would be officially announced by now

The expectation is Sept. 16

[Njall]

It's important to note that the riding polls were measuring how many respondents "would be possible, likely, or certain" to vote for the PPC candidate. Results were as follows:

Nipissing-Timiskaming: 34.1%

• 11.2% certain
• 6.1% likely
• 16.9% possible

Etobicoke North: 29.9%

• 15.3% certain
• 5.2% likely
• 9.4% possible

Pickering-Uxbridge: 25.9%

• 11.2% certain
• 5.4% likely
• 9.3% possible

Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingly: 24.5%

• 10.6% certain
• 4.4% likely
• 9.5% possible

[Njall]

Mainstreet has the NDP in third in Stratchona and the Conservatives retaking Edmonton-Mill Woods.  Will there be any non-Conservative seats in AB/SK after this election?

FWIW, I work in Edmonton Strathcona and from all I can see, there's no way that the NDP are in third here. Inasmuch as lawn signs on private property are an indicator, the NDP is leading the way with the Conservatives in second and Liberals in a distant third. Linda Duncan is doing everything she can here to get Heather McPherson elected as her successor.

[Njall]

How do poll numbers look compared to 2015

The day before the 2015 election, Eric Grenier's poll aggregator showed the following:

Liberal: 37.2%
Conservative: 30.9%
NDP: 21.7%
Bloc: 4.9% (20.1% in Quebec)
Green: 4.4%
Other: 0.9%


Compare that to today's showing for tomorrow's election:

Liberal: 31.9%
Conservative: 31.8%
NDP: 18.0%
Bloc: 7.1% (30.6% in Quebec)
Green: 8.0%
Other: 3.2% (including PPC at 2.4%)

[Njall]

Krago, these maps are really great. Would you be able to do some for Calgary and Edmonton?