Canadian Election 2019

[njwes]

Interesting poll of native Canadians:

Con: 26%
Lib: 21
NDP: 17
Green: 16


n= "1,024 people self-identifying as First Nations, Inuit or Métis"

https://aptnnews.ca/2019/10/02/vote2019-climate-change-and-drinking-water-top-indigenous-issues-in-federal-election/

[njwes]

Interesting poll of native Canadians:

Con: 26%
Lib: 21
NDP: 17
Green: 16


n= "1,024 people self-identifying as First Nations, Inuit or Métis"

https://aptnnews.ca/2019/10/02/vote2019-climate-change-and-drinking-water-top-indigenous-issues-in-federal-election/

This sample must be heavily non-reserve, as reserves vote monolithically 90% Liberal or NDP.

Sample:

57% Urban
27% Rural
16% Reserve

[njwes]

Hopefully the Tories win and win in a landslide,


Trudeau has been one of the worst pm's ever

If the Tories win it won't be a landslide.  One term PMs are quite rare so I think the Tories beating the Liberals in seat count is a steep, but not impossible hill to climb.  Actually winning a majority will require a lot of things falling into place as at the moment they are a long ways away from it.  Now true, if every voter who in the last provincial elections voted for centre-right parties (BC Liberals in 2017, WRP + PC in AB in 2015, Saskatchewan Party in 2016, Manitoba PCs in 2016, Ontario PCs in 2018, CAQ in 2018, NB PCs + People's Alliance in 2018, PEI PC's in 2015, NS PC's in 2017, and NL PC's in 2015) also voted Tory federally, that would be sufficient, but I am skeptical of them doing as well as their provincial counterparts in pretty much every province save Alberta as in all other provinces each one had certain things going for them the federal party lacks.

Yah I know they wont win in a landslide, all Im saying is they deserve to.


I dont think winning a majority is implausible but it depends on what type of campaign they run. If they run a milquetoast campaign and run away from Harper they will lose. They need to run an aggressive campaign

I think their challenges are regional.  Harper is still hated in Atlantic Canada so they can win there but they have to return to their Red Tory roots and that will anger a lot of their base.  Quebec is always a wild card and usually it either embraces them (like 1958, 1984, or 1988) or soundly rejects like in most elections, no in between and usually we don't get any clues until about two weeks before the election.  I think had Horwath won last June or Wynne somehow got back in, the Tories would be in great shape to make gains in Ontario, but since Ford is premier who is very polarizing and divisive, that will probably hurt them there.  Ontario has a long history of voting opposites federally and provincially so with the PCs now in control at Queen's Park, that hurts the chances for the Tories federally.  They already hold the majority of ridings in the Prairies and not enough ones they don't hold to make a big difference.  BC seems to have swung leftward of recent so that could change if the provincial NDP tanks, but at the moment things don't look good for them, at least not in the coastal areas (I live here so I would know) which is the majority of the province.

To be fair, its not all bad for the right in Canada.  Unlike in 2015, we now have four provinces with 2/3 of the population with centre-right governments and that will likely grow to six as in New Brunswick Liberals likely to be defeated on the throne speech this Friday thus making room for the PCs and Alberta will likely swing rightward next May provincially.  So in all probability you will have over 80% of Canadians living in provinces with centre-right provincial governments so having a centre-left federally sort of balances things out.

I didn't see any cross-tabs--and I imagine the MoE would make such results really unreliable--but this was the "ethnic" breakdown:

60% First Nations
36% Métis
4% Inuk/Inuit/Inuvialuit