Canadian Election 2019

[jaichind]

Going by what took place last few election cycles it seems most polls are fairly useless until the last 2-3 weeks before the election.  Is that because Canadians are more fickle or the nature of a 3 party system  manes that votes are more likely to be tactically minded and more likely to shift how they vote up until right before the election.   

[jaichind]

Wow, I just noticed how much NDP fell in Quebec.  I guess that will shift a bunch of seats to LIB even if CON and BQ gains vote share from 2015 assuming the LIB vote from 2015 holds up.  CON will have their work cut out for them to try to overtake LIB overall.

[jaichind]

So people... what do you think the odds are on these outcomes happening?

Scenario A
LIB + NDP + GRN = greater than 50%

Scenario B
CON + B-Q = greater than 50%

And how about this:

Scenario C
LIB + NDP = almost 50% but not quite
LIB + NDP + GRN = greater than 50%
Scheer becomes Prime Minister anyway

Scenario D
CON + B-Q = greater than 50%
Trudeau becomes Prime Minister anyway

Scenario A: 80%
Scenario B: 5%
Scenario C: 25%
Scenario D: 20%

Should not A and B add up to nearly 100%  Unless you think PPC will win a bunch of seats more than the 1 it might win. 

[jaichind]

What's the likelihood of either Wilson-Raybould or Philpotts winning as an independent? I guess that might be relevant to the electoral calculus if Lib + NDP is about the same as Con.

I think, my observation, is that Wilson-Raybould has a better chance of winning then Philpott does.

Why are CON and NDP contesting those seats.  Should they not step aside to back these two to highlight their concern and anger over the Lavalin affair ?  Especially when Wilson-Raybould seat it seems neither CON nor NDP has much of a chance anyway.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/BarackObama/status/1184528998669389824

Is this not a sign that Trudeau is in trouble ?  Meaning if he is running away with it then Obama would not be doing this (or perhaps asked to do this).

[jaichind]

One thing I don't understand is why the Liberals didn't use their majority to push through ranked ballot legislation when they had the chance.  It would have set them up for almost perpetual majority governments.

And I REALLY don't understand why the Ontario Liberals didn't do it too.

But would that not allow the NDP to survive on the long run.  I would think LPC would prioritize having no viable rivals on the Left as much as winning the next or any election.  Losing to CPC would still mean next election LPC can still come back. Leaving NDP around means there is always a risk that NDP would displace LPC as the main party of the Left and wipe out LPC completely.   

[jaichind]

I think such a big gap in seats, when compared to the MOE popular vote, is Unlikely. There's just too many easy flips for team Blue, even with the Grit stranglehold on Ontario. There's also the NDP right now, in broad strokes are going to be picking up a bunch of lib/NDP seats that they lost in the 2015 wave.

However, the core theme of this election appears to be uncertainty. The Libs and Cons are going to be within the MOE of each other in votes, with the Libs having a more efficient vote spread. Nobody really likes either of them right now, but instead people are voting red to stop blue or vice versa, a fact compounded by their negative campaigns. Behind them though are the three minor parties who are all much more popular than the big two, easing their access to votes. However there are plenty of places on the map where a vote for the minors is realistically half a vote for one of the big two, depending on the circumstances. How the minors affect the big two is anyone's guess - tactical voting may be a thing, or it may not considering how detestable the big two are. So Maggi's prediction, while out there, has probably the same chance of occurring as any other prediction, this is as close to a tossup election as you can get.

There is also the issue that BQ vote share to seat translation is fairly efficient and most BQ gains would be at the expense of LPC (assuming we are already writing off most NDP seats as lost to BQ already.)

[jaichind]

When will voting end in the Atlantic Provinces? 7pm EST?

[jaichind]

Ipsos has CPC ahead LPC 33 to 31 while Abacus Data has LPC ahead of CPC 34 to 32.  I think the online pollsters are better for LPC while phone based pollsters are better for CPC.  I assume this means that higher turnout should be better for LPC as more marginal voters turn out.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/1186091782200856576

Well, we now know why this guy is calling a liberal majority. If the grits are back ahead by this much in Quebec then they get the lions share of seats - mind you EKOS is going out on a limb from the trend here. On the other hand, even with such a large lead I can still see it mostly all getting packing onto the Island and Ottawa regions. The same poll showed that higher education correlates with Lib voting, and the CAQ territory where the BQ/Lib's are fighting is mostly rural.

EDIT: I got sniped by Atlas lag.

Something seems a bit off.  I took the total 2015 vote by province and plugged in their numbers and got LPC 34.5% CPC 29.6% NDP 18.3% GPC 8.3% PPC 3.4% BQ 5.4%  So their regional breakdown seems to imply a ~5% LDP-CPC lead and not a ~4% lead.  Well, if LDP is going to win a 5% lead over CPC then it is reasonable to expect LPC to be in majority territory especially if LPC is ahead of BQ in Quebec.

[jaichind]

Are they using those electronic ballots which means a fast count ?

[jaichind]

CPC vote share in NL so far look pretty good (when compared to 2015)

[jaichind]

CPC vote share in NL so far look pretty good (when compared to 2015)

Considering LIB got 70+% in most of those areas, I find it hard to believe they would've matched or improved on their margins.

Yes, but the CPC vote share is very strong vis-a-vis NDP relative to 2015 as well

[jaichind]

In NL PPC so far have 1 vote .....

[jaichind]

So far it seems NDP have collapsed in NL

[jaichind]

CPC ahead in 8 seats already

[jaichind]

Im no Canadian election expert, but it’s probably a good thing for the Conservatives if they’re already leading in 8 ridings in a region where they won none in 2015.

Even if it holds a lot of it is reversion to the mean.  The real test will be ON

[jaichind]

GPC seems to be under-performing in the Atlantic provinces

[jaichind]

It does not seem that CPC is getting enough seats to overtake LPC.  Rooting for BQ now to block LPC majority.

[jaichind]

The Green party wins Fredericton, with the incumbent Liberal MP currently in 3rd place.

They are ahead but I do not believe they have won.

[jaichind]

CPC vote share just overtook LPC.  Might not last.  But polls were very accurate.  Given the BC vote shares I suspect CPC seat count there will grow.

[jaichind]

Jody Wilson-Raybould now leading in Vancouver Granville, but it's still a close three-way affair.

I wonder who LPC would prefer to win? CPC or JWR

[jaichind]

NDP and GPC under-performed pre-election polls.  It seems those votes went to LPC helping them to overcome CPC.

[jaichind]

Other than BQ being weaker and the CPC vote share actually beat LPC is this election not just a repeat of 2004 ?

[jaichind]

Canada is so woke they made Trudeau a minority so his blackface is acceptable.

If Obama can endorse his fellow Black Trudeau why did Warren not endorse her fellow Native American/First Nation JWR?