Canadian Election 2019

[King of Kensington]

I wonder how many British Columbians mocked GW Bush and voted for Stockwell Day's Canadian Alliance that same year?

[King of Kensington]

Western alienation has narrowed geographically to Alberta and Saskatchewan.  Manitoba was never as "alienated" and BC increasingly looks like Manitoba.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6084080/analysis-western-alienation-alberta-saskatchewan/

[MaxQue]

Elizabeth May resigns as Green leader, but will stay as parliamentary leader for the moment.

New leader elected on October 4, 2020. Interim leader is Jo-Ann Roberts, former journalist and defeated candidate in Halifax.

[DistingFlyer]

Nunavut's official count has finally come in, and it looks like all three recounts have been dropped.

Have updated an earlier chart illustrating safe vs. moderate vs. marginal constituencies over the years (Reply #2020, https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=305434.msg7026207#msg7026207); changed a couple figures for 2019, added acclamations columns & extended the data back to 1896.

Have also updated the 2019 maps posted earlier (Reply #2000, https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=305434.msg7025705#msg7025705) - generally just some subtle shading changes, as well as fixing two stupid mistakes I made.

Finally, have updated the set of federal & provincial electoral data files (https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1Pa-73KSfj_nmezJ0WKTKrjlDW6RFUJJR) - have added Newfoundland, BC & New Brunswick, and of course have put 2019's data into the federal file. Have not put pre-1949 data into the federal file yet, as some of the figures are still a little less certain (particularly pre-1917) than I'd like them to be, but may put those in later.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Are the official result being posted somewhere? I couldn't find them with a google search.

[DistingFlyer]

Are the official result being posted somewhere? I couldn't find them with a google search.

Use this link: http://enr.elections.ca/DownloadResults.aspx  

[Antonio the Sixth]

Are the official result being posted somewhere? I couldn't find them with a google search.

Use this link: http://enr.elections.ca/DownloadResults.aspx 

Thanks!

[DistingFlyer]

Here's a map showing the swings in each constituency:



[One note of explanation: in instances where the top two parties didn't remain the same from 2015 to 2019, I based it off of the top two parties in 2019 (for instance, a riding that went from Tory vs. Liberal to Tory vs. NDP has the Tory-NDP swing shown; one reason why some Prairie swings are a little smaller than you might expect). The only exception was if a party went from first to third - then it became a swing between 2015's winner & 2019's winner (one reason why some Bloc swings are so large, as they're NDP-to-Bloc swings in many previously-NDP ridings where the NDP plunged to third or fourth place this time).]

[DistingFlyer]

I'd spoken some time ago about the high re-election rate of Ministers this time around - the highest for a government that lost seats overall since 1953 - so here is a table illustrating how well Ministries did at each election since 1867.

There have been five instances where a sitting Prime Minister was personally defeated: 1921 (Arthur Meighen in Portage la Prairie), 1925 (Mackenzie King in York North), 1926 (Arthur Meighen in Portage la Prairie), 1945 (Mackenzie King in Prince Albert) and 1993 (Kim Campbell in Vancouver Centre).



(You'll see in the notes column that some people contested more than one constituency in an election; they only get counted once in the won/lost columns. If a person won one and lost one, then they're counted in the 'won' column.)

[toaster]

Anyone else find it interesting that the urban ridings in Ontario that tend to be further left of centre (progressive left) stayed Liberal (Parkdale-High Park, Ottawa Centre, Toronto Danforth) but the more rural/labour left regions (AMG, Timmins-James Bay, Hamilton) stayed NDP.  I would have predicted the opposite given Singh.  It's kind of bizarre to think Andrea Horwath was more popular in Toronto Centre, Beaches - East York, than Singh.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Anyone else find it interesting that the urban ridings in Ontario that tend to be further left of centre (progressive left) stayed Liberal (Parkdale-High Park, Ottawa Centre, Toronto Danforth) but the more rural/labour left regions (AMG, Timmins-James Bay, Hamilton) stayed NDP.  I would have predicted the opposite given Singh.  It's kind of bizarre to think Andrea Horwath was more popular in Toronto Centre, Beaches - East York, than Singh.

I mean I'd have to guess that's mostly a result of the NDP being a serious contender for the premiership (and ultimately becoming the Official Opposition) in the last provincial election vs. being a clear 3rd fiddle and potential spoiler federally...

[adma]

And in each of those cases, incumbency matters.  (Remember: the NDP netted no Ontario gains.)

[Hatman 🍁]

And in each of those cases, incumbency matters.  (Remember: the NDP netted no Ontario gains.)

Correct. Incumbency is the #1 reason.

Also, the NDP was short on cash, so didn't put up much of a fight in Toronto.

[adma]

Also, the NDP was short on cash, so didn't put up much of a fight in Toronto.

It should never be forgotten that at the beginning of the campaign, there looked to be a realistic possibility that the NDP was headed for a 1993-type decimation debacle--thus a lot of their "poor" and  "disappointing" results were actually improvements on what looked to be on the horizon a month or so earlier.

One case in point that comes to mind: Niagara Centre, where former MP Malcolm Allen finished 3rd with 27% of the vote--but that was 10 points higher than an earlier Mainstreet poll projected...

[mileslunn]

Anyone else find it interesting that the urban ridings in Ontario that tend to be further left of centre (progressive left) stayed Liberal (Parkdale-High Park, Ottawa Centre, Toronto Danforth) but the more rural/labour left regions (AMG, Timmins-James Bay, Hamilton) stayed NDP.  I would have predicted the opposite given Singh.  It's kind of bizarre to think Andrea Horwath was more popular in Toronto Centre, Beaches - East York, than Singh.

Downtown Toronto unlike Northern Ontario is mostly promiscous progressives who are more driven by desire to keep the Tories out of office than vote for any given party, so they tend to swing massively behind whichever progressive party is most likely to achieve that.

[mileslunn]

Maybe it was asked elsewhere, but how come Kenora was one of the few to flip to the Tories in Ontario.  If people told me they would only pick up a few seats, this would have not been on my list of top 10 most likely pick ups for them.  The two losses Milton and Kitchener-Conestoga I would have guessed as in those cases I think demographic changes as a decade ago both were fairly rural but now more suburban today is what cost the Tories there.  They didn't so much lose votes, but failed to win over those who moved into the riding which mostly broke in favour of the Liberals. 

Also for up north, Yukon was surprisingly close while surprised NDP won Nunavut, but know North is more candidate centric than Southern Canada so perhaps someone with more knowledge of that region or local candidates might be able to explain.

[Hatman 🍁]

Kenora swung to the PCs provincially too; it's not really that surprising.

[mileslunn]

Kenora swung to the PCs provincially too; it's not really that surprising.

True although I would have not put it as a top pick to flip.  Was it perhaps the carbon tax or do they just swing more in line with what Manitoba does as in Ontario as a whole Tories lost votes.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think proximity to Manitoba must explain it partially. The riding is on Central Time, and I'd imagine is in the Winnipeg media market.

[adma]

I think proximity to Manitoba must explain it partially. The riding is on Central Time, and I'd imagine is in the Winnipeg media market.

Yeah, in some ways, Kenora's become the eastern frontier of "Scheer Country".  And more subtly, while the Cons lost some ground in Ontario at large, they in fact gained ground in much of Northern Ontario--and in Kenora, they actually gained less than 5 points over 2015; it's just that it turned out to be a reprise of 2015's three-way race with the Cons on top this time.  (Surely benefiting this time from piggybacking off Greg Rickford provincially.  And maybe even, counterintuitive as it sounds, from Doug Ford's appearance in Kenora--unrelated, perhaps, except in maybe energizing local Conservative forces t/w the finish line.)

[DC Al Fine]

I think proximity to Manitoba must explain it partially. The riding is on Central Time, and I'd imagine is in the Winnipeg media market.

Yeah, in some ways, Kenora's become the eastern frontier of "Scheer Country".  And more subtly, while the Cons lost some ground in Ontario at large, they in fact gained ground in much of Northern Ontario--and in Kenora, they actually gained less than 5 points over 2015; it's just that it turned out to be a reprise of 2015's three-way race with the Cons on top this time.  (Surely benefiting this time from piggybacking off Greg Rickford provincially.  And maybe even, counterintuitive as it sounds, from Doug Ford's appearance in Kenora--unrelated, perhaps, except in maybe energizing local Conservative forces t/w the finish line.)

Yes. If the Tories treaded water in Ontario but lost ground in prosperous suburbs, they needed to make up the ground somewhere. Northern Ontario is a decent fit for a more downscale right.

[Hatman 🍁]

Northern Ontario is very "populist" or "WWC". One of my fears about having Singh as leader was that he would not appeal at all to Northerners. And on the same note, Trudeau's brand of Liberalism doesn't play well in the North either. Nonetheless, both parties held their own in terms of keeping their seats (Kenora notwithstanding), but did tread water to the Tories in most ridings. The Tories don't have much history winning seats in the North, so probably have little ground game.  I'm sure a better campaign in the Soo could've flipped it though.

[DL]

I think proximity to Manitoba must explain it partially. The riding is on Central Time, and I'd imagine is in the Winnipeg media market.

The other unspoken issue is race. The NDP almost won Kenora in 2015 running former Ontario leader Howard Hampton. But this time the NDP ran First Nation chief Turtle - and while he likely did very well on a lot of FN reserves - there is a large chunk of WWC voters in northern Ontario who will vote for white NDP candidate but will go Tory if the NDP nominates an "Injun" (sic.)

[DC Al Fine]

Northern Ontario is very "populist" or "WWC". One of my fears about having Singh as leader was that he would not appeal at all to Northerners. And on the same note, Trudeau's brand of Liberalism doesn't play well in the North either. Nonetheless, both parties held their own in terms of keeping their seats (Kenora notwithstanding), but did tread water to the Tories in most ridings. The Tories don't have much history winning seats in the North, so probably have little ground game.  I'm sure a better campaign in the Soo could've flipped it though.

What is it about the Soo that causes the Tories do so much better there than other Northern ON towns?

[mileslunn]

Northern Ontario is very "populist" or "WWC". One of my fears about having Singh as leader was that he would not appeal at all to Northerners. And on the same note, Trudeau's brand of Liberalism doesn't play well in the North either. Nonetheless, both parties held their own in terms of keeping their seats (Kenora notwithstanding), but did tread water to the Tories in most ridings. The Tories don't have much history winning seats in the North, so probably have little ground game.  I'm sure a better campaign in the Soo could've flipped it though.

What is it about the Soo that causes the Tories do so much better there than other Northern ON towns?

If you look at just polls and not ridings, generally Tories do well in areas near the southern edge of Northern Ontario, but once you get deeper north they do poorly.