Canadian Election 2019

[Pericles]

I had a look through the riding results and it seems that, on a uniform swing of just taking votes from the Liberals and adding them to the CPC (unrealistic of course but a rough guide), to become the largest party the CPC would have needed to win Peterborough-Kawartha (if they won that and all seats the Liberals beat them in by a smaller margin they'd have 137 seats to 135 for the Liberals). Peterborough-Kawartha was won by the Liberals by a margin of 4.36% (while they lost the popular vote remember), so a 5.7% popular vote win was needed by the CPC just to get a bare minority.

That's a... serious handicap, if it carries over going forward (which of course it might not, since Canada sometimes has weird provincial trends).

Yeah tbf it might not I believe the CPC had a more efficient vote than the Liberals in 2004 and then a less efficient one in 2006.

[Hatman 🍁]

Makes sense, Peterborough is a very good bellwether. Provincially, it's voted for the winning party since 1977.

How much swing would they need to get a majority?

[DistingFlyer]

Makes sense, Peterborough is a very good bellwether. Provincially, it's voted for the winning party since 1977.

How much swing would they need to get a majority?

A very tricky question to answer, but if one looks at the forty-nine ridings that the Tories came closest to winning they break down as follows: 34 Liberal, 9 New Democratic, 3 Bloc, 2 Green & 1 Independent. The forty-ninth seat is Mississauga – Lakeshore, with a Liberal margin of 11.1%.

If one looks only at the forty-nine Liberal ridings that the Tories came closest to winning, the forty-ninth is Don Valley North, with a Liberal margin of 15.0%.

Based on those two numbers, the national swing needed to produce 170 Tory MPs is somewhere between 5.6% and 7.5%; putting it another way, the Tories need a national lead of between 12.3% and 16.2% (putting them in a worse position than the Liberals ever found themselves in despite their domination of Quebec).


Now, I don't really believe that the Tories can't actually achieve a majority without a lead of that size; should they win, it will likely be to a big swing in Ontario, a moderate one in BC & the Maritimes, and probably just a small one in Quebec.

[Tintrlvr]

Makes sense, Peterborough is a very good bellwether. Provincially, it's voted for the winning party since 1977.

How much swing would they need to get a majority?

A very tricky question to answer, but if one looks at the forty-nine ridings that the Tories came closest to winning they break down as follows: 34 Liberal, 9 New Democratic, 3 Bloc, 2 Green & 1 Independent. The forty-ninth seat is Mississauga – Lakeshore, with a Liberal margin of 11.1%.

If one looks only at the forty-nine Liberal ridings that the Tories came closest to winning, the forty-ninth is Don Valley North, with a Liberal margin of 15.0%.

Based on those two numbers, the national swing needed to produce 170 Tory MPs is somewhere between 5.6% and 7.5%; putting it another way, the Tories need a national lead of between 12.3% and 16.2% (putting them in a worse position than the Liberals ever found themselves in despite their domination of Quebec).


Now, I don't really believe that the Tories can't actually achieve a majority without a lead of that size; should they win, it will likely be to a big swing in Ontario, a moderate one in BC & the Maritimes, and probably just a small one in Quebec.

It would actually be nearly impossible for the Conservatives to not win more seats than that on a uniform swing because they are already maxed out and can't go any higher in so many seats out west, so additional swings must by necessity come in the more competitive seats/seats they don't already hold.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

I had a look through the riding results and it seems that, on a uniform swing of just taking votes from the Liberals and adding them to the CPC (unrealistic of course but a rough guide), to become the largest party the CPC would have needed to win Peterborough-Kawartha (if they won that and all seats the Liberals beat them in by a smaller margin they'd have 137 seats to 135 for the Liberals). Peterborough-Kawartha was won by the Liberals by a margin of 4.36% (while they lost the popular vote remember), so a 5.7% popular vote win was needed by the CPC just to get a bare minority.

That's a... serious handicap, if it carries over going forward (which of course it might not, since Canada sometimes has weird provincial trends).

Case in point, the NDP flopping in Quebec this time, after the Orange Crush of 2011. Also, the huge Green surges in NB and PE versus the Conservative surge in NL (which ironically probably helped the NDP take St John’s East).

Here’s a vote table from Matthew Isbell

[Antonio the Sixth]

Great table, thanks!

Can I get a link to the official results, to get a detailed look for myself?

[lilTommy]

Re-count coming in Port Moody-Coquitlam

https://www.tricitynews.com/news/ndp-zarrillo-granted-vote-recount-in-port-moody-coquitlam-1.23991933?fbclid=IwAR1smWbLJAoYG71-qoPjQBnyo_ndl2Vdf_V61NApmdKgJxXISc1VOF9oZ6k

This is an NDP vs CPC seat, the CPC won by 153 votes but there seem to be some irregularities here.

[MaxQue]

Re-count coming in Port Moody-Coquitlam

https://www.tricitynews.com/news/ndp-zarrillo-granted-vote-recount-in-port-moody-coquitlam-1.23991933?fbclid=IwAR1smWbLJAoYG71-qoPjQBnyo_ndl2Vdf_V61NApmdKgJxXISc1VOF9oZ6k

This is an NDP vs CPC seat, the CPC won by 153 votes but there seem to be some irregularities here.

There is 3 recounts in fact, Bloc also asked for recounts in Québec (Liberal hold by 325 votes) and Hochelaga (Liberal gain by 328 votes).

[DC Al Fine]

Ipsos conducted an exit poll which included a question about how you would vote under straight PR. Actual poll results only added up to 95%, so I pro-rated the extra 5% by vote share. Seat change is vs actual FPTP results.

Tory: 31.6%, 107 seats (-14)
Liberal: 27.4%, 93 seats (-64)
NDP: 21.0%, 71 seats (+47)
Green: 8.4%, 28 seats (+25)
Bloc: 7.4%, 25 seats (-7)
People's: 4.2%, 14 seats (+14)

Tl;dr: PPC enters parliament (or narrowly misses out if we have a 5% threshhold), Liberals would have tremendous difficulty forming government on their own, and would need the support of the NDP + Bloc and/or Greens to pass anything. We probably see a coalition or at the very least a more formal arrangement with the NDP.

[DistingFlyer]

Re-count coming in Port Moody-Coquitlam

https://www.tricitynews.com/news/ndp-zarrillo-granted-vote-recount-in-port-moody-coquitlam-1.23991933?fbclid=IwAR1smWbLJAoYG71-qoPjQBnyo_ndl2Vdf_V61NApmdKgJxXISc1VOF9oZ6k

This is an NDP vs CPC seat, the CPC won by 153 votes but there seem to be some irregularities here.

There is 3 recounts in fact, Bloc also asked for recounts in Québec (Liberal hold by 325 votes) and Hochelaga (Liberal gain by 328 votes).

Validated results still have yet to be posted for Labrador & Nunavut; this makes five ridings outstanding for final figures.

[lilTommy]

Re-count coming in Port Moody-Coquitlam

https://www.tricitynews.com/news/ndp-zarrillo-granted-vote-recount-in-port-moody-coquitlam-1.23991933?fbclid=IwAR1smWbLJAoYG71-qoPjQBnyo_ndl2Vdf_V61NApmdKgJxXISc1VOF9oZ6k

This is an NDP vs CPC seat, the CPC won by 153 votes but there seem to be some irregularities here.

There is 3 recounts in fact, Bloc also asked for recounts in Québec (Liberal hold by 325 votes) and Hochelaga (Liberal gain by 328 votes).

Validated results still have yet to be posted for Labrador & Nunavut; this makes five ridings outstanding for final figures.

I wonder if it is due to the size and remote character of both ridings? The current vote has both the NDP in Nunavut and LPC in Labrador at 41%, so I don't expect the results to change in terms of who was elected.

But Port Moody-Coquitlam, of the 3 re-counts, could result in a new MP.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ipsos conducted an exit poll which included a question about how you would vote under straight PR. Actual poll results only added up to 95%, so I pro-rated the extra 5% by vote share. Seat change is vs actual FPTP results.

Tory: 31.6%, 107 seats (-14)
Liberal: 27.4%, 93 seats (-64)
NDP: 21.0%, 71 seats (+47)
Green: 8.4%, 28 seats (+25)
Bloc: 7.4%, 25 seats (-7)
People's: 4.2%, 14 seats (+14)

Tl;dr: PPC enters parliament (or narrowly misses out if we have a 5% threshhold), Liberals would have tremendous difficulty forming government on their own, and would need the support of the NDP + Bloc and/or Greens to pass anything. We probably see a coalition or at the very least a more formal arrangement with the NDP.

Unsurprisingly this confirms that the Singh Surge was undercut by f**king tactical voting.

[DistingFlyer]

Ipsos conducted an exit poll which included a question about how you would vote under straight PR. Actual poll results only added up to 95%, so I pro-rated the extra 5% by vote share. Seat change is vs actual FPTP results.

Tory: 31.6%, 107 seats (-14)
Liberal: 27.4%, 93 seats (-64)
NDP: 21.0%, 71 seats (+47)
Green: 8.4%, 28 seats (+25)
Bloc: 7.4%, 25 seats (-7)
People's: 4.2%, 14 seats (+14)

Tl;dr: PPC enters parliament (or narrowly misses out if we have a 5% threshhold), Liberals would have tremendous difficulty forming government on their own, and would need the support of the NDP + Bloc and/or Greens to pass anything. We probably see a coalition or at the very least a more formal arrangement with the NDP.

Unsurprisingly this confirms that the Singh Surge was undercut by f**king tactical voting.

Tory & PPC figures here add up almost exactly to their actual combined share of the vote; Liberal & NDP total figures are pretty close too; Bloc is pretty much the same; Greens about 2% different. Obviously there's a margin of error in any poll, so these figures matching so closely is a bit of a surprise.

[Krago]

Judging from the narrowed margin in Kanata-Carleton (despite controversy surrounding the Con candidate) it seems to be a generic "outer Ottawa" thing. 

Let's not forget a third Lib-swinging "bedrooming" close call in Ontario: Flamborough-Glanbrook.

Not as close a call as it seemed on election night.

https://www.flamboroughreview.com/news-story/9665766-data-entry-error-causes-1-000-vote-discrepancy-in-flamborough-glanbrook/

[DistingFlyer]

While we wait for the last few counts to be validated, here is the record vote share recorded in each province (party figures get more uncertain as one goes back farther, so there may be an instance in the very early years that ought to be here - nonetheless, this should do):

Newfoundland - 71.9% by the Liberals in 1949
Nova Scotia - 62.0% by the Liberals in 2015
New Brunswick - 59.3% by the Conservatives in 1925
Prince Edward Island - 61.3% by the Conservatives in 1958

Quebec - 72.7% by the Liberals in 1917

Ontario - 62.9% by the Conservatives in 1917

Manitoba - 79.7% by the Conservatives in 1917
Saskatchewan - 74.1% by the Conservatives in 1917
Alberta - 69.0% by the Conservatives in 2019
British Columbia - 71.6% by the Conservatives in 1891

One record broken last week (Alberta, last set in 1984), and one broken four years ago (Nova Scotia, set probably by the anti-Confederation Liberals in 1867).

[Antonio the Sixth]

1917 really was one crazy election. Conscription was the ultimate wedge issue.

[RogueBeaver]

So far anti-Scheer rebellious noises have been mostly coming from Quebec - couple of senators (Jean-Guy Dagenais and Josee Verner), publicly wobbly (Joel Godin, Jacques Gourde) or anonymously sniping MPs and to a lesser extent, Ontario. Now MacKay took a public swipe at Scheer. https://twitter.com/DonMartinCTV/status/1189637337585725440

[Hatman 🍁]

Ipsos conducted an exit poll which included a question about how you would vote under straight PR. Actual poll results only added up to 95%, so I pro-rated the extra 5% by vote share. Seat change is vs actual FPTP results.

Tory: 31.6%, 107 seats (-14)
Liberal: 27.4%, 93 seats (-64)
NDP: 21.0%, 71 seats (+47)
Green: 8.4%, 28 seats (+25)
Bloc: 7.4%, 25 seats (-7)
People's: 4.2%, 14 seats (+14)

Tl;dr: PPC enters parliament (or narrowly misses out if we have a 5% threshhold), Liberals would have tremendous difficulty forming government on their own, and would need the support of the NDP + Bloc and/or Greens to pass anything. We probably see a coalition or at the very least a more formal arrangement with the NDP.

One wonders what seats would flip if people voted their true intentions under FPTP. Obviously there are many people who "vote strategically" despite not living in a riding where it's necessary.

Of course, even under PR people would vote strategically, as a lot of people think most seats=winner. (This explains why otherwise smart people vote strategically in ridings that the Tories have no chance in).

[DistingFlyer]

1917 really was one crazy election. Conscription was the ultimate wedge issue.

Yes indeed, though - to my surprise, looking over the figures - the Tories' biggest margin in that election was 79.2% in Brandon; had expected this figure to exceed comfortably Damien Kurek's 80.4% margin of last week, but apparently it didn't. (The 89.6% of the vote won in Brandon exceeded the 85.5% in Battle River – Crowfoot, of course.)

The biggest Liberal win was in Bellechasse, where they got 97.7% of the vote to 1.6% for the Tories - a 96.1% margin of victory, that hasn't been exceeded by anybody since.

In the early days, one sometimes saw a high-profile member opposed by an independent or maybe a token Liberal/Tory, and the margins could be very lopsided. I can't be certain that those two shares of the vote weren't exceeded in one of the first few General Elections, though if they were it wouldn't have been by very much . . .

[King of Kensington]

The 1917 election was rigged so immigrants from "enemy countries" couldn't vote.  

One group that couldn't be barred from voting was the German Canadian electorate in the Waterloo region.  

https://www.tvo.org/article/a-look-at-one-of-the-ugliest-federal-election-campaigns-in-canadian-history

[DistingFlyer]

One region of the country that wasn't affected much by the huge swings nationwide was the Maritime provinces:

In Nova Scotia, the Tories went from a 2% deficit in 1911 to a 2% lead in 1917;
in New Brunswick, they went from a 2% deficit in 1911 to a 13% lead in 1917; and
in PEI, they went from a 1% lead in 1911 to a 1% deficit in 1917 (apart from Quebec, the only province to record a swing against them).

Overall, the region went from a 2% Liberal lead in 1911 to a 6% Tory one in 1917. Compare that to Ontario, where the Tories' lead swelled from 13% to 30%, and out West, where it jumped from a 4% deficit to a 44% lead. Quebec, on the other hand, saw a 2% lead plunge to a 47% deficit.

[vileplume]

1917 really was one crazy election. Conscription was the ultimate wedge issue.

Yes indeed, though - to my surprise, looking over the figures - the Tories' biggest margin in that election was 79.2% in Brandon; had expected this figure to exceed comfortably Damien Kurek's 80.4% margin of last week, but apparently it didn't. (The 89.6% of the vote won in Brandon exceeded the 85.5% in Battle River – Crowfoot, of course.)

The biggest Liberal win was in Bellechasse, where they got 97.7% of the vote to 1.6% for the Tories - a 96.1% margin of victory, that hasn't been exceeded by anybody since.

In the early days, one sometimes saw a high-profile member opposed by an independent or maybe a token Liberal/Tory, and the margins could be very lopsided. I can't be certain that those two shares of the vote weren't exceeded in one of the first few General Elections, though if they were it wouldn't have been by very much . . .

Which interestingly is now the safest Tory seat in Quebec!

[DistingFlyer]

1917 really was one crazy election. Conscription was the ultimate wedge issue.

Yes indeed, though - to my surprise, looking over the figures - the Tories' biggest margin in that election was 79.2% in Brandon; had expected this figure to exceed comfortably Damien Kurek's 80.4% margin of last week, but apparently it didn't. (The 89.6% of the vote won in Brandon exceeded the 85.5% in Battle River – Crowfoot, of course.)

The biggest Liberal win was in Bellechasse, where they got 97.7% of the vote to 1.6% for the Tories - a 96.1% margin of victory, that hasn't been exceeded by anybody since.

In the early days, one sometimes saw a high-profile member opposed by an independent or maybe a token Liberal/Tory, and the margins could be very lopsided. I can't be certain that those two shares of the vote weren't exceeded in one of the first few General Elections, though if they were it wouldn't have been by very much . . .

Which interestingly is now the safest Tory seat in Quebec!

The 1917 Liberal lead was much greater in rural Quebec than in Montreal; a reflection, I suppose, of the significant anglophone population at the time (province-wide, the ratio of French to English was 2 to 1, as opposed to the 10 to 1 that it is now).

The three Tory ridings that survived the Liberal sweep were all in Montreal: St. Anne, St. Antoine & St. Lawrence – St. George. The Montreal vote was 59% Liberal to 38% Conservative, while the rest of the province went 80% Liberal to 18% Conservative (and that's with a dozen or so Liberals winning unopposed). The 1921 election saw Montreal get closer into line with the rest of the province, as it voted Liberal 71% to 18% while the remainder went Liberal 70% to 18%.

Six years previously, Montreal had gone Conservative 49% to 37%, while the rest of the province remained Liberal 51% to 49%.

If you told a political observer a century ago that the Tories would not only become a presence in Quebec again, but that they'd do so in the rural areas, I doubt he'd have believed you.

How Quebec voted in subsequent good years for the Tories is as follows:

1930
Montreal - 54% Liberal, 43% Conservative
Remainder - 53% Liberal, 45% Conservative

1958
Montreal - 47% Conservative, 46% Liberal
Remainder - 51% Conservative, 45% Liberal

1984
Montreal - 42% Conservative, 39% Liberal
Remainder - 54% Conservative, 34% Liberal

1988
Montreal - 44% Conservative, 39% Liberal
Remainder - 57% Conservative, 26% Liberal


To run down some of the 1917 equivalents to presently-held Tory ridings, we see the following:

Beauce - Liberal unopposed
Bellechasse - Liberal wins by 96%
Chicoutimi – Saguenay - Liberal wins by 84%
Drummond – Arthabaska - Liberal unopposed
Kamouraska - Liberal wins by 90%
Levis - Liberal wins by 68%
L'Islet - Liberal unopposed
Lotbiniere - Liberal wins by 92%
Megantic - Liberal unopposed
Montmagny - Liberal wins by 28% (Tories third, 62% behind the Liberals)
Portneuf - Liberal unopposed
Quebec County - Liberal wins by 80%
Quebec West - Liberal wins by 87%
Richmond – Wolfe - Liberal wins by 60%

So not only do we see a clean Liberal sweep, but by greater margins in every riding than in the province as a whole (where they won by 47%).

[DC Al Fine]

Ipsos conducted an exit poll which included a question about how you would vote under straight PR. Actual poll results only added up to 95%, so I pro-rated the extra 5% by vote share. Seat change is vs actual FPTP results.

Tory: 31.6%, 107 seats (-14)
Liberal: 27.4%, 93 seats (-64)
NDP: 21.0%, 71 seats (+47)
Green: 8.4%, 28 seats (+25)
Bloc: 7.4%, 25 seats (-7)
People's: 4.2%, 14 seats (+14)

Tl;dr: PPC enters parliament (or narrowly misses out if we have a 5% threshhold), Liberals would have tremendous difficulty forming government on their own, and would need the support of the NDP + Bloc and/or Greens to pass anything. We probably see a coalition or at the very least a more formal arrangement with the NDP.

One wonders what seats would flip if people voted their true intentions under FPTP. Obviously there are many people who "vote strategically" despite not living in a riding where it's necessary.

Of course, even under PR people would vote strategically, as a lot of people think most seats=winner. (This explains why otherwise smart people vote strategically in ridings that the Tories have no chance in).

Interesting question. I'm annoyed Ipsos didn't provide crosstabs on that question. n was nearly 10,000 so we could've had some solid regional numbers to play with. Just eyeballing it, the Tories probably pick up most of York region and a few more Atlantic seats. NDP probably wins a few in central Toronto and that Windsor seat they lost. Come to think of it, the NDP probably lost a couple seats to the Libs because of tactical voting Greens probably win a seat or two off the NDP in Vancouver Island.

What does tactical voting look like in Quebec?

[DC Al Fine]

So far anti-Scheer rebellious noises have been mostly coming from Quebec - couple of senators (Jean-Guy Dagenais and Josee Verner), publicly wobbly (Joel Godin, Jacques Gourde) or anonymously sniping MPs and to a lesser extent, Ontario. Now MacKay took a public swipe at Scheer. https://twitter.com/DonMartinCTV/status/1189637337585725440

To paraphrase Chris Warkentin: "Strong words for a guy who wasn't on the ice"