Canadian Election 2019

[Tintrlvr]

Yes, the East-West divide is sharp in Canada in a way American observers may not be able to comprehend (we have no "Midwest" equivalent).  Also the Great Plains isn't a cultural region in the US but the Prairies very much is one in Canada.

I thought Manitoba and Northern Ontario were your Midwest.

Ew, I refuse to believe I’m from the Canadian equivalent of the Midwest.

To be honest, all of Ontario is the Midwest. Toronto is Chicago. Windsor, Hamilton, London, Niagara, Oshawa -- all very Midwestern. Sorry.

[Oryxslayer]

 

Yes, the East-West divide is sharp in Canada in a way American observers may not be able to comprehend (we have no "Midwest" equivalent).  Also the Great Plains isn't a cultural region in the US but the Prairies very much is one in Canada.

I thought Manitoba and Northern Ontario were your Midwest.

Ew, I refuse to believe I’m from the Canadian equivalent of the Midwest.

To be honest, all of Ontario is the Midwest. Toronto is Chicago. Windsor, Hamilton, London, Niagara, Oshawa -- all very Midwestern. Sorry.

Ontario simplified is just a mixture of Illinois and New York. The province as  a whole is very similar structurally to Illinois, except the GTA and Ottawa are far similar to Albany and NYC in their cultural impact/growth/influence (etc) rather than Chicago. Ontario also lacks much of the American midwestern culture and rightly so has their own thing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Appearances can be deceptive. There is nowhere in the United States that is that like Ontario. New England and Upstate New York would have been had they been blessed with better soil, perhaps, and had the lure of, well, the Middle West not existed from the mid 19th century.

[politicallefty]

I think it's interesting how divergent the traditional grouping of Manitoba and Saskatchewan has become. For future elections, it probably makes more sense to group SK with AB or at least poll SK and MB separately. Winnipeg clearly is a larger influence in MB than any city by itself in either SK or AB, with the Winnipeg region electing 8/14 ridings. Only 5 ridings in MB are truly rural small-c conservative, compared with 8 in SK (not to mention Regina and Saskatoon combined aren't even close to Winnipeg). Each province has a northern riding which I think can have very strange politics. With that said, I'm still surprised Ralph Goodale lost by the margin that he did and that the NDP couldn't salvage anything out of SK.

I guess it shouldn't be too surprising the Liberals in Alberta all faced defeat, but Calgary really went back to its roots (pretty sure all majority Conservative wins). I would've predicted at least a hold in Edmonton Centre. It shows how much of a one-off 2015 was for the left in Alberta: NDP provincial majority and the Liberals holding 2 seats in each of Edmonton and Calgary (not to mention the NDP in Edmonton Strathcona).

Also, I'm almost certain Battle River-Crowfoot and Foothills are the first ridings in Canadian history with a winning majority of over 50,000 votes (Calgary Shepard looks to be 30 votes shy of that margin, although I'm not sure if there are any uncounted votes remaining).

[DistingFlyer]

I think it's interesting how divergent the traditional grouping of Manitoba and Saskatchewan has become. For future elections, it probably makes more sense to group SK with AB or at least poll SK and MB separately. Winnipeg clearly is a larger influence in MB than any city by itself in either SK or AB, with the Winnipeg region electing 8/14 ridings. Only 5 ridings in MB are truly rural small-c conservative, compared with 8 in SK (not to mention Regina and Saskatoon combined aren't even close to Winnipeg). Each province has a northern riding which I think can have very strange politics. With that said, I'm still surprised Ralph Goodale lost by the margin that he did and that the NDP couldn't salvage anything out of SK.

I guess it shouldn't be too surprising the Liberals in Alberta all faced defeat, but Calgary really went back to its roots (pretty sure all majority Conservative wins). I would've predicted at least a hold in Edmonton Centre. It shows how much of a one-off 2015 was for the left in Alberta: NDP provincial majority and the Liberals holding 2 seats in each of Edmonton and Calgary (not to mention the NDP in Edmonton Strathcona).

Also, I'm almost certain Battle River-Crowfoot and Foothills are the first ridings in Canadian history with a winning majority of over 50,000 votes (Calgary Shepard looks to be 30 votes shy of that margin, although I'm not sure if there are any uncounted votes remaining).

A majority of fifty thousand has been obtained before, but only once (Maurizio Bevilacqua in 1993). It's now been done four times.

Earlier in this thread I'd listed all the occasions where an MP had won by more than forty thousand; here is an updated list that includes winners from 2019 in bold (there's still one riding on the list that hasn't produced an official count, so I'll amend that number when it comes in).

52544 - Mike Lake (Cons) in Edmonton – Wetaskiwin (2019)
51389 - Maurizio Bevilacqua (Lib) in York North (1993)
50124 - Damien Kurek (Cons) in Battle River – Crowfoot (2019)
50016 - John Barlow (Cons) in Foothills (2019)
49970 - Tom Kmiec (Cons) in Calgary Shepard (2019)
49819 - Earl Dreeshen (Cons) in Red Deer – Mountain View (2019)
47831 - Blaine Calkins (Cons) in Red Deer – Lacombe (2019)
47763 - Bobbie Sparrow (PC) in Calgary South (1984)
47079 - Blake Richards (Cons) in Banff – Airdrie (2019)
46953 - Chris Warkentin (Cons) in Grande Prairie – Mackenzie (2019)
46295 - Dane Lloyd (Cons) in Sturgeon River – Parkland (2019)
44733 - Garnett Genuis (Cons) in Sherwood Park – Fort Saskatchewan (2019)
44586 - Shannon Stubbs (Cons) in Lakeland (2019)
43106 - Martin Shields (Cons) in Bow River (2019)
43052 - Stephanie Kusie (Cons) in Calgary Midnapore (2019)
42928 - Benoit Sauvageau (BQ) in Terrebonne (1993)
42047 - Kevin Sorenson (Cons) in Battle River – Crowfoot (2015)
41691 - Jason Kenney (Cons) in Calgary Southeast (2011)
41425 - Gerald Soroka (Cons) in Yellowhead (2019) (PRELIMINARY ONLY)
40480 - Monique Begin (Lib) in Saint-Leonard – Anjou (1979)
40189 - Don Boudria (Lib) in Glengarry – Prescott – Russell (1993)

From seven times (three in 1993, one apiece in 1979, 1984, 2011 & 2015; three Liberals, three Tories & one Bloquiste) to twenty-one now. Two-thirds of the people on the list are Alberta Tories from this year's election.

Additionally, with the official result for Battle River – Crowfoot in, one can confirm the 85.5% of the vote and 80.4% margin won by Damien Kurek. While not the largest-ever Tory margin (probably the all-time records for both Tories & Liberals will remain in 1917), it is the biggest in a century, breaking the 75.2% margin won by Kevin Sorenson in Crowfoot in 2006. It's also the biggest margin of any candidate for any party in half a century - you have to go back to Pierre Trudeau's 86% majority in Mount Royal in 1968 to find a bigger one.

Although Alberta has been solidly for the Tories (or the Reformers or Socreds) for many years, it's only recently that the kinds of huge, Quebec-Liberal-style margins that we're seeing this time have become a regular fixture there. To wit, the biggest majority in a General Election - no matter what the overall outcome was - was usually a Quebec or Newfoundland Liberal (for decades rural NL was even better Liberal territory than Quebec). The average Liberal margin of victory was also generally larger than the average Tory margin.

However, from 2004 to the present the biggest majority has always been a Tory one. The exception was 2015, when Judy Foote just barely edged out Kevin Sorenson, 71.7% to 71.5%, and the average Tory margin has been bigger than the average Liberal one from 2004 to now without exception. This could be a sign that the Tories will need to get appreciably more votes than the Liberals to win government on a regular basis (just as the opposite was the case for many years due to Liberal dominance in Quebec).

Overall, twenty-five ridings still have not produced official counts. Most are large rural constituencies where you'd expect them to take a while; exceptions are the seats of two party leaders (Beloeil – Chambly & Papineau) as well as Vancouver Centre & Victoria.

[DC Al Fine]

Kind of weird to think that until this week, the largest margin of victory was in Vaughan. Goes to show how much of a difference trends and demographic changes can make over time.

[DistingFlyer]

Additionally, here are all the times from 1921 to the present that a candidate has gotten 85% of the vote or more; this will show the longtime Liberal dominance of Quebec & rural Newfoundland in a proper way, as the only Tory on the list is the freshly-elected Mr. Kurek:

93.5% - Joseph Demers (Lib) in St. Johns – Iberville (1921)
92.3% - Ches Carter (Lib) in Burin – Burgeo (1949)
90.8% - Pierre Trudeau (Lib) in Mount Royal (1968)
90.0% - Henri Severin Beland (Lib) in Beauce (1921)
89.6% - Edouard-Charles St.-Pere (Lib) in Hochelaga (1921)
89.2% - William Kent (Lib) in Humber – St. George's (1949)
89.0% - Edouard Lacroix (Lib) in Beauce (1935)
88.5% - Peter Bercovitch (Lib) in Cartier (1940)
88.2% - Ches Carter (Lib) in Burin – Burgeo (1953)
87.8% - Alcide Cote (Lib) in Saint-Jean – Iberville – Napierville (1953)
87.6% - Joseph Fontaine (Lib) in Saint-Hyacinthe – Bagot (1949)
87.6% - Fernand Rinfret (Lib) in St. James (1921)
87.4% - Martial Rheaume (Lib) in St. Johns – Iberville – Napierville (1935)
87.3% - Frederick Bradley (Lib) in Bonavista – Twillingate (1949)
87.2% - Jack Pickersgill (Lib) in Bonavista – Twillingate (1957)
86.7% - Thomas Ashbourne (Lib) in Grand Falls – White Bay (1949)
86.3% - Ernest Lapointe (Lib) in Quebec East (1921)
85.9% - Henri Bourassa (Ind) in Labelle (1926)
85.5% - Damien Kurek (Cons) in Battle River – Crowfoot (2019)
85.3% - Fernand Rinfret (Lib) in St. James (1926)
85.2% - Pierre Trudeau (Lib) in Mount Royal (1979)

[DistingFlyer]

Kind of weird to think that until this week, the largest margin of victory was in Vaughan. Goes to show how much of a difference trends and demographic changes can make over time.

It was more a reflection of how large & rapidly the riding had grown - 113,000 votes were cast there, up from the already-oversized 88,000 in 1988. In percentage terms, that 51,000-majority ranked only 39th among Liberal margins for 1993 (though a still-impressive 45.5%). It was also a big improvement personally for Mr. Bevilacqua over 1988, when his 77-vote margin was overturned and a by-election was ordered (though it was in 1990, when the Tory government had hit the depths of unpopularity, so he won very easily). He never had much difficulty in the years since - winning by 47.8% in 1997, 50.1% in 2000, 39.3% in 2004, 33.7% in 2006 & 14.8% in 2008. He was always quite popular locally, though as he was on the right wing of the Liberal Party, he didn't advance much under Jean Chretien. Once he retired, the seat became competitive again (as evidenced by the subsequent Tory by-election victory).

York – Scarborough had a similar rapid growth throughout its existence (1953 through 1965): 34,000 votes cast in 1953, 75,000 in 1957 (the winning Tory got more votes, 42,000, than had been cast in total in 1953), 88,000 in 1958 (his majority of 35,000 was the first to break 30,000), 122,000 in 1962, 131,000 in 1963 and 148,000 in 1965 (an all-time record; the third-place New Democrat got 33,000 votes - almost as many as were cast in total in 1953).

[ottermax]

Globally it appears that populist or right-leaning parties have gained ground in rural areas, while more liberal, centrist, or left-wing parties have lost ground in rural areas while making gains in urban areas. However in Canada the Liberals who epitomize liberalism and centrism have held strongly onto rural areas of Atlantic Canada, while completely being removed from the picture in the rural prairies. This is not the first time this has happened I believe, but what drives this?

For example if you hop over the border to Maine or even Upstate New York we saw huge swing to Trump in 2016. Why aren't these trends playing out in Canada?

[King of Kensington]

Scheer really isn't a Trump-type firebrand or populist.  He's a very stiff social conservative and someone who champions the regional grievances of the Prairies.

[King of Kensington]

It's also strange that the CPC ran a Christian conservative anti-abortion activist in York Centre and non-Italians in both Vaughan ridings.  Scheer was a terrible fit for the GTA. 

[Oryxslayer]

Globally it appears that populist or right-leaning parties have gained ground in rural areas, while more liberal, centrist, or left-wing parties have lost ground in rural areas while making gains in urban areas. However in Canada the Liberals who epitomize liberalism and centrism have held strongly onto rural areas of Atlantic Canada, while completely being removed from the picture in the rural prairies. This is not the first time this has happened I believe, but what drives this?

For example if you hop over the border to Maine or even Upstate New York we saw huge swing to Trump in 2016. Why aren't these trends playing out in Canada?

If you want to see rural/urban divides, look to the provincial elections where various conservative parties hold almost every govt thanks in most cases to sweeping the places one would expect them to sweep. It's been remarked elsewhere that this election felt like UK 2005 or US 2012 where personality and candidate quality shoved aside the underlying trends (both unique and global) aside for a period of time This is especially meaningful when voter look more seriously at the other options (more than usual) thanks to the leaders lack of desirability.

[King of Kensington]

Big swing to the Tories in Cape Breton.

[DistingFlyer]

Big swing to the Tories in Cape Breton.

Both ridings were contested by two provincial MLAs, both of whom were quite popular locally; given the federal history of those seats it was still unlikely that they'd win, although they'd probably do much better than the Tory normal there. That both Liberal MPs weren't running again would also help them. I'd expected Alfie MacLeod to come closest to winning, given the rural riding & the fact that he'd been around much longer than Eddie Orrell had, but the narrow Liberal win in Sydney is probably down to the controversy surrounding their candidate there.

Incidentally, Chris d'Entremont is another MLA who ran in West Nova (marginal, but usually Liberal); he won, but the narrow margin is indicative of the poor Tory showing provincewide. Lenore Zann, the NDP-MLA-turned-Liberal-MP in Cumberland, also narrowly pulled out a victory in a normally Tory riding.

I've often said that the individual candidate matters a great deal in Nova Scotia (generally more so than elsewhere in the country), and all four of these results are indicative of that.

[King of Kensington]

In Alberta and Saskatchewan there were only 5 ridings the Conservatives received less than 50% of the vote: Edmonton-Strathcona (37.3% - went NDP), Edmonton Centre (41.7%), Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River (41.7%), Saskatoon West (48.3%) and Regina-Wascana (49.6%).

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Globally it appears that populist or right-leaning parties have gained ground in rural areas, while more liberal, centrist, or left-wing parties have lost ground in rural areas while making gains in urban areas. However in Canada the Liberals who epitomize liberalism and centrism have held strongly onto rural areas of Atlantic Canada, while completely being removed from the picture in the rural prairies. This is not the first time this has happened I believe, but what drives this?

For example if you hop over the border to Maine or even Upstate New York we saw huge swing to Trump in 2016. Why aren't these trends playing out in Canada?

You're misunderstanding what occurred! There were gargantuan swings towards the Conservatives in Regina, Saskatoon, Calgary and Edmonton. There was basically no such swing in most of rural Ontario.  Canada isn't a country where one can easily discuss "trends" by urban/rural patterns because farmers in Saskatchewan or Alberta share nothing in common with rural residents of New Brunswick, many of whom speak French (!) or who, at the very least, are very exposed to the French language and are the 10th generation descendants of Anglo settlers. Meanwhile, in Saskatchewan, immigrant heritage is of fairly recent vintage.

[DistingFlyer]

Here are maps for the 2019 election; the first indicates the winners' % margin of victory and the second the winners' % of the vote.

(There are still twenty-five constituencies that have yet to post official counts; as they probably won't do so before Monday, I've gone with their preliminary tallies for the moment. Will adjust the colors for those ridings later if necessary.) (EDIT: Finally completed!)






To compare, here are maps for 2015:

[King of Kensington]

You're misunderstanding what occurred! There were gargantuan swings towards the Conservatives in Regina, Saskatoon, Calgary and Edmonton. There was basically no such swing in most of rural Ontario.  Canada isn't a country where one can easily discuss "trends" by urban/rural patterns because farmers in Saskatchewan or Alberta share nothing in common with rural residents of New Brunswick, many of whom speak French (!) or who, at the very least, are very exposed to the French language and are the 10th generation descendants of Anglo settlers. Meanwhile, in Saskatchewan, immigrant heritage is of fairly recent vintage.

Unlike in the US, region trumps demographics in voting patterns.  Scheer is in effect Moe and Kenney's puppet on the federal scene.

[King of Kensington]

Let's put it this way: What is the "Calgary" of the USA?

[cinyc]

Let's put it this way: What is the "Calgary" of the USA?

Houston, probably.

[politicallefty]

A majority of fifty thousand has been obtained before, but only once (Maurizio Bevilacqua in 1993). It's now been done four times.

Earlier in this thread I'd listed all the occasions where an MP had won by more than forty thousand; here is an updated list that includes winners from 2019 in bold (there's still one riding on the list that hasn't produced an official count, so I'll amend that number when it comes in).

52544 - Mike Lake (Cons) in Edmonton – Wetaskiwin (2019)
51389 - Maurizio Bevilacqua (Lib) in York North (1993)
50124 - Damien Kurek (Cons) in Battle River – Crowfoot (2019)
50016 - John Barlow (Cons) in Foothills (2019)
49970 - Tom Kmiec (Cons) in Calgary Shepard (2019)
49819 - Earl Dreeshen (Cons) in Red Deer – Mountain View (2019)
47831 - Blaine Calkins (Cons) in Red Deer – Lacombe (2019)
47763 - Bobbie Sparrow (PC) in Calgary South (1984)
47079 - Blake Richards (Cons) in Banff – Airdrie (2019)
46953 - Chris Warkentin (Cons) in Grande Prairie – Mackenzie (2019)
46295 - Dane Lloyd (Cons) in Sturgeon River – Parkland (2019)
44733 - Garnett Genuis (Cons) in Sherwood Park – Fort Saskatchewan (2019)
44586 - Shannon Stubbs (Cons) in Lakeland (2019)
43106 - Martin Shields (Cons) in Bow River (2019)
43052 - Stephanie Kusie (Cons) in Calgary Midnapore (2019)
42928 - Benoit Sauvageau (BQ) in Terrebonne (1993)
42047 - Kevin Sorenson (Cons) in Battle River – Crowfoot (2015)
41691 - Jason Kenney (Cons) in Calgary Southeast (2011)
41425 - Gerald Soroka (Cons) in Yellowhead (2019) (PRELIMINARY ONLY)
40480 - Monique Begin (Lib) in Saint-Leonard – Anjou (1979)
40189 - Don Boudria (Lib) in Glengarry – Prescott – Russell (1993)

From seven times (three in 1993, one apiece in 1979, 1984, 2011 & 2015; three Liberals, three Tories & one Bloquiste) to twenty-one now. Two-thirds of the people on the list are Alberta Tories from this year's election.

Additionally, with the official result for Battle River – Crowfoot in, one can confirm the 85.5% of the vote and 80.4% margin won by Damien Kurek. While not the largest-ever Tory margin (probably the all-time records for both Tories & Liberals will remain in 1917), it is the biggest in a century, breaking the 75.2% margin won by Kevin Sorenson in Crowfoot in 2006. It's also the biggest margin of any candidate for any party in half a century - you have to go back to Pierre Trudeau's 86% majority in Mount Royal in 1968 to find a bigger one.

Although Alberta has been solidly for the Tories (or the Reformers or Socreds) for many years, it's only recently that the kinds of huge, Quebec-Liberal-style margins that we're seeing this time have become a regular fixture there. To wit, the biggest majority in a General Election - no matter what the overall outcome was - was usually a Quebec or Newfoundland Liberal (for decades rural NL was even better Liberal territory than Quebec). The average Liberal margin of victory was also generally larger than the average Tory margin.

However, from 2004 to the present the biggest majority has always been a Tory one. The exception was 2015, when Judy Foote just barely edged out Kevin Sorenson, 71.7% to 71.5%, and the average Tory margin has been bigger than the average Liberal one from 2004 to now without exception. This could be a sign that the Tories will need to get appreciably more votes than the Liberals to win government on a regular basis (just as the opposite was the case for many years due to Liberal dominance in Quebec).

Overall, twenty-five ridings still have not produced official counts. Most are large rural constituencies where you'd expect them to take a while; exceptions are the seats of two party leaders (Beloeil – Chambly & Papineau) as well as Vancouver Centre & Victoria.

I'm sort of surprised I missed Edmonton-Wetaskiwin, either a larger electorate or just significantly higher turnout (I'm assuming the latter as I'm assuming it's a more suburban riding). I'm very surprised the previous record was in 1993. I figured percentage margins haven't been broken this year, but some of those rural Alberta seats are really pushing it and that's with the PPC shaving a 2-3% off the Conservative margins.

I could be wrong, but I'm fairly certain the overall Conservative vote percentages in AB and SK are records (at least for the modern era). SK hasn't historically been strongly Conservative, but getting over 69% in AB even exceeds Mulroney's win in 1984.

In Alberta and Saskatchewan there were only 5 ridings the Conservatives received less than 50% of the vote: Edmonton-Strathcona (37.3% - went NDP), Edmonton Centre (41.7%), Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River (41.7%), Saskatoon West (48.3%) and Regina-Wascana (49.6%).

And all were pickups for the Tories.

Let's put it this way: What is the "Calgary" of the USA?

Houston, probably.

Maybe DFW up until very recently?

[DistingFlyer]

I figured percentage margins haven't been broken this year, but some of those rural Alberta seats are really pushing it and that's with the PPC shaving a 2-3% off the Conservative margins.

I could be wrong, but I'm fairly certain the overall Conservative vote percentages in AB and SK are records (at least for the modern era). SK hasn't historically been strongly Conservative, but getting over 69% in AB even exceeds Mulroney's win in 1984.

The vote share in Alberta is an all-time record, while the Saskatchewan result is bested only by 1917 (when the Tories got 74%). The Tory vote of 64% on the Prairies is also a record since then (when they got 72%).

The 1917 election set a number of records - nationwide vote (57%), vote share in Ontario (62%), vote share in Quebec (73%), vote share in the West (71%) and even vote share in Toronto (72%), not to mention record constituency shares - that will probably never be broken.

The 85.5% racked up in Battle River – Crowfoot isn't an all-time record, nor even a record since 1917, but it is the best Conservative result since the time of Borden (in both percentage of the vote and percentage majority).

[politicallefty]

Looking over some of the more apparently anomalous results, what's with the big Conservative wins in Thornhill and Richmond Centre? Obviously very different reasons I'm assuming apart from perhaps incumbent popularity. I'm assuming Richmond Centre has a fairly large Chinese population and I know the Tories have historically done well with Chinese voters, but I'm sure there have to be a number of other heavily Chinese seats that didn't go their way. Also, the lone NDP seat in Montreal was held by a pretty substantial margin as well.

[DistingFlyer]

Looking over some of the more apparently anomalous results, what's with the big Conservative wins in Thornhill and Richmond Centre? Obviously very different reasons I'm assuming apart from perhaps incumbent popularity. I'm assuming Richmond Centre has a fairly large Chinese population and I know the Tories have historically done well with Chinese voters, but I'm sure there have to be a number of other heavily Chinese seats that didn't go their way. Also, the lone NDP seat in Montreal was held by a pretty substantial margin as well.

Conservative success (since 2008) in Thornhill has generally been attributed to the big Jewish population there (the largest of any riding), given that that demographic has been very good to the Tories for the last decade. It also helps to explain the strong Tory showing in Mount Royal four years ago.

[King of Kensington]

Robert Brym, a University of Toronto sociologist and co-author the 2018 Survey of Jews in Canada, said he’s not surprised that Canadian Jews appear to have tilted toward the Liberals.

The survey “suggested that a Liberal bias exists in Canada’s Jewish community, not just in term of party preference, but in terms of attitudes toward income redistribution, same-sex relationships and Israeli settlement policy,” Brym told The CJN.

The Orthodox community, he went on, tends to lean more toward the Conservatives, in terms of party preference and attitudes, so “it is not a shock that Thornhill, with its substantial Orthodox population, tilted Conservative,” he added.

https://www.cjnews.com/news/canada/how-the-jewish-vote-will-shape-canadas-43rd-parliament