Canadian Election 2019

[LimoLiberal]

Libs making things interesting in Miramichi-Grand Lake. Cons retake the lead in Sydney-Victoria.

[Walmart_shopper]

To be honest, I don't think the Liberals are going to do as good as the others in this thread think. Atlantic Canada, which is typically titanium L, is showing to be a mural of not only red, but also blue, and a little green and orange. If this is how they're doing in THEIR territory, may God help them as this night goes on.

Although to be honest, the night is still very young, and anything can truly happen.

But Atlantic Canada also has some of the easier ridings to flip for the Cons. Their problem is that they aren't flipping them. While not an overwhelming result numbers-wise for the Grits so far they are winning the ridings they need to a minority or even thin majority.

[Don Vito Corleone]

To be honest, I don't think the Liberals are going to do as good as the others in this thread think. Atlantic Canada, which is typically titanium L, is showing to be a mural of not only red, but also blue, and a little green and orange. If this is how they're doing in THEIR territory, may God help them as this night goes on.

Although to be honest, the night is still very young, and anything can truly happen.

Most of the seats that flipped are basically Safe Tory, it's not a massive concern for the Grits. West Nova an exception though - anyone know what's happening there?

Strong Tory candidate (he's an MLA in the region).

[morgieb]

To be honest, I don't think the Liberals are going to do as good as the others in this thread think. Atlantic Canada, which is typically titanium L, is showing to be a mural of not only red, but also blue, and a little green and orange. If this is how they're doing in THEIR territory, may God help them as this night goes on.

Although to be honest, the night is still very young, and anything can truly happen.

Most of the seats that flipped are basically Safe Tory, it's not a massive concern for the Grits. West Nova an exception though - anyone know what's happening there?

Strong Tory candidate (he's an MLA in the region).

Makes sense. Suppose I underestimate just how elastic Canada is.

[ajc0918]

BQ barely leading in Gaspésie-Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine.

[Crumpets]

So... Quebec and at least most of Ontario have polls closed now, right?

[Walmart_shopper]

To be honest, I don't think the Liberals are going to do as good as the others in this thread think. Atlantic Canada, which is typically titanium L, is showing to be a mural of not only red, but also blue, and a little green and orange. If this is how they're doing in THEIR territory, may God help them as this night goes on.

Although to be honest, the night is still very young, and anything can truly happen.

Most of the seats that flipped are basically Safe Tory, it's not a massive concern for the Grits. West Nova an exception though - anyone know what's happening there?

The Libs will win West Nova. The early vote was pretty bad for them, though.

[super6646]

To be honest, I don't think the Liberals are going to do as good as the others in this thread think. Atlantic Canada, which is typically titanium L, is showing to be a mural of not only red, but also blue, and a little green and orange. If this is how they're doing in THEIR territory, may God help them as this night goes on.

Although to be honest, the night is still very young, and anything can truly happen.

Most of the seats that flipped are basically Safe Tory, it's not a massive concern for the Grits. West Nova an exception though - anyone know what's happening there?

The Libs will win West Nova. The early vote was pretty bad for them, though.

Ummm... its been called for the cons.

[DistingFlyer]

To be honest, I don't think the Liberals are going to do as good as the others in this thread think. Atlantic Canada, which is typically titanium L, is showing to be a mural of not only red, but also blue, and a little green and orange. If this is how they're doing in THEIR territory, may God help them as this night goes on.

Although to be honest, the night is still very young, and anything can truly happen.

Most of the seats that flipped are basically Safe Tory, it's not a massive concern for the Grits. West Nova an exception though - anyone know what's happening there?

Strong Tory candidate (he's an MLA in the region).

Same goes for Sydney - Victoria (where the Tory MLA who's running is leading by a little), Cape Breton - Canso (a Tory MLA who's losing, but not massively), and Cumberland - Colchester (an NDP-turned-Liberal is winning narrowly).

All of those ridings except the last one are pretty strong Liberal, while the last usually goes Tory. Individual candidates still count for quite a bit in NS, especially outside the Halifax area.

[LimoLiberal]

Finnigan, behind all night, takes the lead in Miramichi-Grand Lake. That would be an extremely impressive hold for the Liberals.

[skbl17]

So... Quebec and at least most of Ontario have polls closed now, right?

No, just one riding in Quebec. The rest of Quebec and all of Ontario (except for one riding that had polling times extended by an hour), Nunavut, Manitoba, the NWT, Sasketchewan, and Alberta close in 15 minutes.

[Walmart_shopper]

To be honest, I don't think the Liberals are going to do as good as the others in this thread think. Atlantic Canada, which is typically titanium L, is showing to be a mural of not only red, but also blue, and a little green and orange. If this is how they're doing in THEIR territory, may God help them as this night goes on.

Although to be honest, the night is still very young, and anything can truly happen.

Most of the seats that flipped are basically Safe Tory, it's not a massive concern for the Grits. West Nova an exception though - anyone know what's happening there?

The Libs will win West Nova. The early vote was pretty bad for them, though.

Ummm... its been called for the cons.

The CBC hasn't called it. The Tories are up by four points with a lot of the vote still out.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

PPC hasn’t been doing so hot. I would’ve expected them to perform well in New Brunswick, but the provincial performance of People’s Alliance didn’t transfer apparently.

[Bidenworth2020]

24-6 isn't great for libs, no?

[DistingFlyer]

Although regional swings can vary quite a bit, one can still draw a couple tentative conclusions so far: the Liberals & Tories are both getting a higher share of the vote than forecast, but with the Liberal lead remaining about where it was expected to be.

In terms of MPs elected, so far it looks like the Liberals are winning enough close races against the Tories, and stopping a lot of NDP challengers quite decisively (just look at my own riding of Halifax), so that their MP count is a little better than forecast, while the Tories & NDP are doing a little less well than expected.

Since incumbent governments often do a little better than polls expect them to do, all this isn't too surprising so far, but we shall have to see exactly how things pan out in Ontario: the Liberals took a number of suburban ridings off the Tories by thin margins there, so individual results will still count for a lot. So far I'd say it looks like a better-than-expected Liberal haul, but not enough to hold their majority. I'm sticking by my earlier prediction for the time being.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

24-6 isn't great for libs, no?

Expected for the libs & underwhelming for the cons

[Oryxslayer]

24-6 isn't great for libs, no?

Tories wanted closer to 9ish if they were looking at govt, but it's likely not enough for a Lib majority. So, nothing that we were  not expecting.

[Gass3268]

24-6 isn't great for libs, no?

https://twitter.com/JPTasker/status/1186438331065884672?s=20

[politicallefty]

It seems like strong Liberal minority is most likely at the moment, but obviously still crazy early.

[super6646]

Cumberland-Colchester looking close. Hope the cons can pull that out to get them to 7.

[DistingFlyer]

24-6 isn't great for libs, no?

Tories wanted closer to 9ish if they were looking at govt, but it's likely not enough for a Lib majority. So, nothing that we were  not expecting.

Agreed - if the Tories had gotten 10 or more, I'd have said they were looking like surpassing the Liberals overall. Fewer than eight and the Liberals will almost certainly be leading, with 8-10 Tories being uncertain. With only 5-7 Tories coming in, and the NDP only getting one MP here instead of 2-4, I'd say the Liberals will definitely remain in the lead. As for a majority or not, it's definitely not enough to say (Quebec, urban/suburban Ontario & BC will probably be the deciders of that, just as they were last time).

(I'd said to friends over the last couple of days that this reminded me a little of 2004, and so far it's looking like it with a stronger-than-expected Liberal result in Atlantic Canada. Fifteen years ago it was 22-7-3, so not too much different this time.)

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The Green party wins Fredericton, with the incumbent Liberal MP currently in 3rd place.

[jaichind]

It does not seem that CPC is getting enough seats to overtake LPC.  Rooting for BQ now to block LPC majority.

[jaichind]

The Green party wins Fredericton, with the incumbent Liberal MP currently in 3rd place.

They are ahead but I do not believe they have won.

[super6646]

Looks like Scheer is going to be out of a job quick... very disappointing result if he doesn't win.

Crappy candidate to run sadly.