Canadian Election 2019

[EastAnglianLefty]

I guess a lot of the majority talk depends on who's switching and where. Is it about Con/Lib swing voters or anti-Tory voters coming home to the Liberals, and if so is that just in the swing seats or will it also hurt the Bloc or the NDP where they're competing with the Liberals.

[DL]

Nanos's final poll out today shows a bit of swing away from the Liberals and they doubled their sample size on Saturday to 800 so this is a poll of 1,600

CPC - 31.5%
Libs - 31.0%
NDP 18.8%
Greens 9.5%
BQ at 30.5% in Quebec...that is no where near majority for anyone

Leger's final poll says its 33-33-18 with the Greens dropping to 6% and again the BQ over 30% in Quebec with a big lead among francophones

[adma]

Re potential NDP over/underperformance:  I wouldn't be surprised if thanks to the Jagmeet factor, this'll be one election where there's a lot more voter enthusiasm among the young than among the old, the latter whom are likelier to abide by the media party line of the campaign being all dreary negativity and "why bother"--thus a shallower gradation btw/younger and older turnout than the norm...

[Hatman 🍁]

https://mobile.twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/1185768465623334913
https://mobile.twitter.com/voiceoffranky/status/1185768930939416577
https://mobile.twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/1185769552585596929

Fun fact: Frank's "seat model" is just me, and I doubt I'll be saying majority. Will find out what today's numbers show though.

[OSR stands with Israel]

How do poll numbers look compared to 2015

[Njall]

How do poll numbers look compared to 2015

The day before the 2015 election, Eric Grenier's poll aggregator showed the following:

Liberal: 37.2%
Conservative: 30.9%
NDP: 21.7%
Bloc: 4.9% (20.1% in Quebec)
Green: 4.4%
Other: 0.9%


Compare that to today's showing for tomorrow's election:

Liberal: 31.9%
Conservative: 31.8%
NDP: 18.0%
Bloc: 7.1% (30.6% in Quebec)
Green: 8.0%
Other: 3.2% (including PPC at 2.4%)

[Foucaulf]

(Crossposted from AAD)

I'm not gonna attempt to predict this election. Instead, here are 40 "battleground ridings" I think are worth following in detail tomorrow and on election night. Feel free to point out errors, my advantage is in BC and nowhere else.

ONTARIO
Davenport - A repeat of the 2015 matchup between the LPC and NDP candidates in one of the NDP's few pickup targets in the City of Toronto.
Brampton East - Jagmeet Singh's old provincial riding covered this area, a heavily Sikh area that could also portend a swing away from the LPC across that ethnic group.
Scarborough-Agincourt - The most Chinese riding in the country should be an early harbinger of Chinese swings, which I'm skeptical polls are getting right.
Richmond Hill - lots of Chinese and Iranians in this riding, and drama surrounding candidate selection should make this a Tory pickup, unless...
Mississauga-Lakeshore - One of the more marginal Mississauga seats, I think the Tories have put a lot of effort into this upper-income riding but could be for naught.
King-Vaughan - This "white ethnic," affluent 905 seat should be an easy pickup for the Tories if not for Doug Ford backlash; toss-up now.
York Centre - A suburban seat in demographic transition, this is the kind of seat Tories want to invest in to maintain a foothold in Toronto.
Cambridge - A marginal LPC/CPC seat in the non-GTA Tri-Cities area may not be so marginal after all if the Liberals have a decisive ON lead.
Whitby - A bedroom community on the GTA's east end is changing quickly enough for this to be marginal for the CPC.
Peterborough-Kawartha - The most famous bellwether riding in the country, voting for the governing party in all but four elections.
Orléans - Ottawa suburbs with a sizable francophone population. The question isn't whether the LPC loses it, but how much do the francophones exact revenge on Ford and the CPC.
Essex - A NDP-CPC marginal worth looking out for, as a hold here means Singh didn't alienate his party's white working class supporters after all.

QUEBEC
Beauce - Maxime Bernier's riding, where he should be facing a tough challenge from the CPC candidate regardless of provincial trends.
Berthier-Maskinogé - Ruth Ellen Brosseau's riding.
Laurier-Sainte-Marie - Gilles Duceppe's old riding, this young "bobo" community sees a three-way between the NDP, Bloc and Liberals.
Sherbrooke - Another three-way in this college town/manufacturing hub, and one a rising NDP may retain in the end.
Trois-Rivières - Yet another three-way riding, Trois-Rivières is where you want to check how Francophone "soft nationalists" split between the parties.
Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup - A very Catholic and pretty rural riding has a classic matchup between the CPC and BQ.
Gaspésie-Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine - A surprisingly swingy district covering the Gaspé peninsula's tip, where the incumbent Liberal minister has a fighting chance.
Louis-Hébert - A riding that hasn't reelected an incumbent for 30 years should be a Liberal marginal - if the opposition isn't split.
Longueuil-Saint-Hubert - A sign of whether or not the Bloc can seize Montreal's South Shore suburbs.
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot - A nationalist community that's gotta be flipping to the Bloc if the Bloc surge is at all real.

BRITISH COLUMBIA
Vancouver Granville - Jody Wilson-Reybould's seat. This seat's demographics makes it an intrinsic three-way between LPC, CPC and NDP, but JWR's run turns it into an insane four-way race.
Vancouver South - The most ethnically diverse seat in Vancouver has a repeat matchup between LPC minister Sajjan and former CPC MP/perennial candidate Wai Young.
Burnaby North-Seymour - Fiercely contested in 2015, this riding has a growing Chinese presence with a CPC candidate scandal: is that enough to make the race a Liberal hold?
Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam - A marginal NDP-Liberal area on the provincial level, this riding is a testing ground for whether the CPC can benefit from a NDP/LPC split.
Delta - A middle-class but ethnically heterogeneous riding, I kind of agree that a LPC/CPC race here will be a bellwether for the parties' performances across the province.
Surrey Centre - This slice of Punjabi suburbia is a testing ground for Jagmeet Singh's appeal, having swung towards the NDP or BC Liberals depending on the ground game.
Courtenay—Alberni - the more right-leaning section of Vancouver Island has the potential of a three-way between the CPC, NDP and Greens.
Victoria - The Greens can make a major breakthrough if they take the very NDP and very "hippie" BC capitol riding.
Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon - The one Fraser Valley riding I can think of that's competitive, though the CPC has serious problems if they can't pick it up.
Skeena-Bulkley Valley - A functional NDP should win this riding of port cities and Native communities, even if incumbent Nathan Cullen retired.

PRAIRIES
Edmonton-Strathcona - the only Alberta seat that may not go to the CPC, depending on if anti-Scheer forces rally behind the NDP candidate.
Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River - Spanning norther Saskatchewan, this is another seat the NDP should win if the party still has credibility from the Native community.
Winnipeg South - LPC/CPC marginal that's a test of whether incumbency advantages matter (current LPC MP Duguid has a good reputation)
Regina-Lewvan - The other NDP/CPC marginal in Saskatchewan, wide open after the incumbent was implicated in a sexual harassment scandal.

MARITIMES
St. John's East - Iconic and mercurial politician Jack Harris aims to take this Newfoundland seat back again for the NDP.
Fredericton - Maybe the only LPC/CPC/Green three-way this election in New Brunswick's capital.
South Shore-St. Margarets - A traditionally competitive seat that doesn't seem like it due to LPC Minister Bernadette Jordan. Check this to see if the Tories do better than expected in the Maritimes.
Fundy Royal - Anglophone and Conservative riding in NB that shouldn't be held by a Liberal. If the Tories can't pick this up, they're in serious trouble.

[jaichind]

Ipsos has CPC ahead LPC 33 to 31 while Abacus Data has LPC ahead of CPC 34 to 32.  I think the online pollsters are better for LPC while phone based pollsters are better for CPC.  I assume this means that higher turnout should be better for LPC as more marginal voters turn out.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

https://mobile.twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/1186091782200856576
https://mobile.twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/1186090404724297729

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/1186091782200856576

Well, we now know why this guy is calling a liberal majority. If the grits are back ahead by this much in Quebec then they get the lions share of seats - mind you EKOS is going out on a limb from the trend here. On the other hand, even with such a large lead I can still see it mostly all getting packing onto the Island and Ottawa regions. The same poll showed that higher education correlates with Lib voting, and the CAQ territory where the BQ/Lib's are fighting is mostly rural.

EDIT: I got sniped by Atlas lag.

[Krago]

Ipsos has CPC ahead LPC 33 to 31 while Abacus Data has LPC ahead of CPC 34 to 32.  I think the online pollsters are better for LPC while phone based pollsters are better for CPC.  I assume this means that higher turnout should be better for LPC as more marginal voters turn out.

Can anyone figure out the Ipsos regional breakdown?  I opened the 'Detailed Tables' and they didn't have any useful information.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/1186091782200856576

Well, we now know why this guy is calling a liberal majority. If the grits are back ahead by this much in Quebec then they get the lions share of seats - mind you EKOS is going out on a limb from the trend here. On the other hand, even with such a large lead I can still see it mostly all getting packing onto the Island and Ottawa regions. The same poll showed that higher education correlates with Lib voting, and the CAQ territory where the BQ/Lib's are fighting is mostly rural.

EDIT: I got sniped by Atlas lag.

Something seems a bit off.  I took the total 2015 vote by province and plugged in their numbers and got LPC 34.5% CPC 29.6% NDP 18.3% GPC 8.3% PPC 3.4% BQ 5.4%  So their regional breakdown seems to imply a ~5% LDP-CPC lead and not a ~4% lead.  Well, if LDP is going to win a 5% lead over CPC then it is reasonable to expect LPC to be in majority territory especially if LPC is ahead of BQ in Quebec.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

http://forumpoll.com/m/post/3051/fed-horserace-final/

Liberal 31.7% 140 seats
Conservatives 29.9% 111 seats
NDP 17.5% 38 seats
Bloc 9% 48 seats
Green 8.3% 1 seat
PPC 3% 0 seats
Other 0.5% 0 seats

[Pragmatic Conservative]

https://mobile.twitter.com/niknanos/status/1186107357387997184

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

What caused the Green collapse? Did May do a blackface skit singing "Ragged but Right" or something?

[Foucaulf]

What caused the Green collapse? Did May do a blackface skit singing "Ragged but Right" or something?

Nothing complicated. Elizabeth May seems sensible if you let her talk for 5 minutes and less sensible if you let her talk for 50

[rob in cal]

   Conservatives are kind of in a box because I would think most soft NDP or Green voters who are wavering, are wavering between voting for their first choice, and if not for the Liberals. Not a big universe of potential CPC voters out there, outside of the already small PPC electorate. Don't see how they get too close to a majority.

[cp]

   Conservatives are kind of in a box because I would think most soft NDP or Green voters who are wavering, are wavering between voting for their first choice, and if not for the Liberals. Not a big universe of potential CPC voters out there, outside of the already small PPC electorate. Don't see how they get too close to a majority.

Indeed. I haven't seen any polls like this lately, but for a while around 2011-2015 some pollsters published figures for a question along the lines of 'what party would you ever consider voting for?'. The Libs always managed in the 50s, the Tories could never crack 45. Add to that the fact that the 'pool' of voters who would consider voting Tory is disproportionately concentrated in the 75 or so ridings in the prairies and you've got a serious structural impediment to a Tory majority.

[Walmart_shopper]

   Conservatives are kind of in a box because I would think most soft NDP or Green voters who are wavering, are wavering between voting for their first choice, and if not for the Liberals. Not a big universe of potential CPC voters out there, outside of the already small PPC electorate. Don't see how they get too close to a majority.

The eternal quagmire of the right in Canada.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Is the Canadian Green party trying to get Yang supporters or something? Their slogan is "Not Left. Not Right. Forward Together" and they support UBI.

[adma]

EPP's final tally: 145 Lib, 120 Con, 37 Bloc, 32 NDP, 3 Green, 1 PPC.

[Podgy the Bear]

What caused the Green collapse? Did May do a blackface skit singing "Ragged but Right" or something?

Nothing complicated. Elizabeth May seems sensible if you let her talk for 5 minutes and less sensible if you let her talk for 50

That's the problem if you deal with anyone on the margins.

[T'Chenka]

What caused the Green collapse? Did May do a blackface skit singing "Ragged but Right" or something?

Unless your local Green candidate is a serious contender to win the parliamentary seat in your riding, a lot of Green voters on election day have to decide if they reallywant to "waste" their vote on Green in order to show support for the party, or if they want to have a say in who is actually going to represent them in government. It's frustrating, and I wpuld know because I go through the same thing in my riding as an NDP voter. You have to decide how important the outcome of this particular election is and vote accordingly.

[Oryxslayer]

  Conservatives are kind of in a box because I would think most soft NDP or Green voters who are wavering, are wavering between voting for their first choice, and if not for the Liberals. Not a big universe of potential CPC voters out there, outside of the already small PPC electorate. Don't see how they get too close to a majority.

Indeed. I haven't seen any polls like this lately, but for a while around 2011-2015 some pollsters published figures for a question along the lines of 'what party would you ever consider voting for?'. The Libs always managed in the 50s, the Tories could never crack 45. Add to that the fact that the 'pool' of voters who would consider voting Tory is disproportionately concentrated in the 75 or so ridings in the prairies and you've got a serious structural impediment to a Tory majority.

The 'tragic' thing (at least from a Tory perspective) is that there are voters out there that are far more reachable then the Toronto Suburbs swing types that decide every major Lib/Tory contest. The problem is these voters are all in Quebec. The CAQ win and their subsequent rise in popularity shows that their national-conservative brand and conservative identity politics has a large market in the many seats between Montreal and Quebec City. The Tories though have a horrible brand in Quebec and can't seem to access these voters because they like to ignore the national side of that equation. I suspect the Conservatives would really benefit electorally from a 'sister-party' type deal, like the German CDU/CSU, but that is not something likely in the foreseeable future.

The Tories today are closer to having a friend in Quebec than anytime previously in living memory, but they can't convert voters because they are the Tories and this is Quebec.

[DL]

The Tories today are closer to having a friend in Quebec than anytime previously in living memory, but they can't convert voters because they are the Tories and this is Quebec.

This is all a non-starter because a core principle of the Tories these days is to push through pipeline projects regardless of the views of provincial governments. This is total anathema across the political spectrum in Quebec. In addition, any hint of social conservatism on issues like abortion and gay rights are toxic even to the most conservative Quebecers.