Canadian Election 2019
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Author Topic: Canadian Election 2019  (Read 189249 times)
Don Vito Corleone
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« Reply #1150 on: October 06, 2019, 08:45:02 PM »

Probably a relief to Scheer as while may not help him, a strike almost certainly would have hurt him and with his horrible showing in the French debate, Quebec is lost for the Tories, so they can ill afford to perform poorly in Ontario as well.
How much would a strike really have hurt him?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #1151 on: October 06, 2019, 09:01:55 PM »

Probably a relief to Scheer as while may not help him, a strike almost certainly would have hurt him and with his horrible showing in the French debate, Quebec is lost for the Tories, so they can ill afford to perform poorly in Ontario as well.
How much would a strike really have hurt him?

By bringing attention on Doug Ford, which the Conservatives want people to forget, given his low popularity.
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Holmes
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« Reply #1152 on: October 06, 2019, 09:56:44 PM »

The English debate will be at 7 pm on Monday, the exact same time that the Leafs will be playing. I am so annoyed. I will probably watch the Leafs game live, and watch the debate tomorrow on YouTube.

Imagine unironically wanting to watch a Leafs game.
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Krago
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« Reply #1153 on: October 06, 2019, 09:57:44 PM »

The English debate will be at 7 pm on Monday, the exact same time that the Leafs will be playing. I am so annoyed. I will probably watch the Leafs game live, and watch the debate tomorrow on YouTube.

It's being live-streamed at the Cineplex theatre just down the road from my house.  The only other live-streamed event I've ever seen there was WrestleMania a few years ago.

I will compare and contrast the two audiences.
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Poirot
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« Reply #1154 on: October 06, 2019, 10:07:39 PM »

The English debate will be at 7 pm on Monday, the exact same time that the Leafs will be playing. I am so annoyed. I will probably watch the Leafs game live, and watch the debate tomorrow on YouTube.

I think the second debate in French is scheduled at the same time as the Montreal Canadiens home game.
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136or142
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« Reply #1155 on: October 07, 2019, 01:19:02 AM »

Big news in Ontario, CUPE and Ontario government have reached a deal so that means no strike on Monday.  Probably a relief to Scheer as while may not help him, a strike almost certainly would have hurt him and with his horrible showing in the French debate, Quebec is lost for the Tories, so they can ill afford to perform poorly in Ontario as well.

The Conservatives should win most of Quebec City and area.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1156 on: October 07, 2019, 08:39:59 AM »

Candidate count (by myself, may contain mistakes):
Liberal 338
Conservative 338
NDP 338
Green 338
PPC 315
Independents 125
Bloc Québécois 78
Christian Heritage 51
Marxist Leninist 50
Rhinoceros 39
Communist 30
Veterans Coalition 25
Libertarian 24
Animal Protection 17
Parti pour l’indépendance du Québec 13
Fourth Front 7
Marijuana 4
United 4
National Citizens Alliance 4
Progressive 3
Nationalist Party 3
Stop Climate Change 2

Ridings with the most candidates (11):
Papineau
Ottawa Centre

Ridings with the least candidates (4):
Avalon
Bonavista-Burin-Trinity
Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame
Labrador
St John's East
Egmont
Malpeque
Halifax West
Acadie-Bathurst
Madawaska-Restigouche
York Centre
Nunavut

Hmm I wonder what happened to the Libertarians. They had the largest fringe slate last time. Christian Heritage seems to have recovered from their worst ever candidate figures in 2015.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1157 on: October 07, 2019, 08:42:54 AM »

After the bidding war of campaign promises reached, to me, an absurd level of unreality, I'm seriously thinking of spoiling my ballot.  Anybody else considering doing that?

Just as a couple examples

Elizabeth May 'The Liberals say they'll plant 2 billion trees, we'll plant 10 billion trees!'

According to economist Kevin Milligan's calculations, the Conservatives total campaign spending promises and tax cuts amount to only $4 billion less per year for the term than the Liberal campaign spending promises and tax cuts.  So, that's roughly $70 billion in new spending compared to the Liberals $80 billion.  

However, the Conservatives also promises to balance the budget in the '5th year.'  Other than cutting foreign aid by 25% which is a drop in the bucket on $70 billion, the Conservatives have not stated what they'll cut.  They are implicitly running on Doug Ford's 'no problem finding efficiencies' lie.  (Or they're lying that they can balance the budget in 'the 5th year.')

The NDP meanwhile is making easy promises of solving problems knowing it will not get elected and have to actually do that.  And especially the sleazy rage filled Charlie Angus is calling out the Liberals for not living up to the false easy promises the NDP are making.

And Justin Trudeau is simply insane.  

I think this is easily the worst Canadian election in my lifetime.  Expressing a vote of no confidence in this campaign and in the leaders by spoiling my ballot is making more and more sense to me.

Vote for a fringe candidate?

I'm toying with the idea of spoiling my ballot, but I like my local Tory candidate, so I suspect I'll wind up voting for him in the end.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #1158 on: October 07, 2019, 09:42:14 AM »

Big news in Ontario, CUPE and Ontario government have reached a deal so that means no strike on Monday.  Probably a relief to Scheer as while may not help him, a strike almost certainly would have hurt him and with his horrible showing in the French debate, Quebec is lost for the Tories, so they can ill afford to perform poorly in Ontario as well.

The Conservatives should win most of Quebec City and area.

Sure, but that's 0 net gains, as they already hold most those seats. Only Beauce, Québec and Louis-Hébert are not Conservative held, and I doubt they would gain those anyways (Beauce is probably the most likely of them).
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DL
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« Reply #1159 on: October 07, 2019, 09:45:49 AM »

In 2011 Harper showed that it was just barely possible for the Tories to get a majority with minimal (5) seats in Quebec, but that required the Tories to win Ontario by 19 points (45% CPC, 26% NDP, 25% Liberal) and capture 80-odd seats...that is clearly no where near to happening again. Most polls have the Liberals ahead in Ontario or have it as a tie.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #1160 on: October 07, 2019, 10:05:50 AM »

Candidate count (by myself, may contain mistakes):
Liberal 338
Conservative 338
NDP 338
Green 338
PPC 315
Independents 125
Bloc Québécois 78
Christian Heritage 51
Marxist Leninist 50
Rhinoceros 39
Communist 30
Veterans Coalition 25
Libertarian 24
Animal Protection 17
Parti pour l’indépendance du Québec 13
Fourth Front 7
Marijuana 4
United 4
National Citizens Alliance 4
Progressive 3
Nationalist Party 3
Stop Climate Change 2

Ridings with the most candidates (11):
Papineau
Ottawa Centre

Ridings with the least candidates (4):
Avalon
Bonavista-Burin-Trinity
Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame
Labrador
St John's East
Egmont
Malpeque
Halifax West
Acadie-Bathurst
Madawaska-Restigouche
York Centre
Nunavut

Hmm I wonder what happened to the Libertarians. They had the largest fringe slate last time. Christian Heritage seems to have recovered from their worst ever candidate figures in 2015.

I'd imagine most Libertarians are supporting Bernier now.
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the506
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« Reply #1161 on: October 07, 2019, 01:43:23 PM »

I'd imagine most Libertarians are supporting Bernier now.

They are. The ones that are left don't like the racism basically.
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Continential
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« Reply #1162 on: October 07, 2019, 06:34:00 PM »

Politico is having a live analysis on the debate
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Continential
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« Reply #1163 on: October 07, 2019, 06:51:04 PM »

Blanchet attacked Scheer as anti-Quebec.
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Don Vito Corleone
bruhgmger2
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« Reply #1164 on: October 07, 2019, 06:52:19 PM »

This debate is such a clusterf!ck.
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T'Chenka
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« Reply #1165 on: October 07, 2019, 11:42:57 PM »

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #1166 on: October 07, 2019, 11:48:45 PM »

Scheer had a great performance  and was the winner tonight
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Pericles
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« Reply #1167 on: October 08, 2019, 12:59:00 AM »

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.
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T'Chenka
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« Reply #1168 on: October 08, 2019, 01:14:52 AM »

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.
My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.
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T'Chenka
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« Reply #1169 on: October 08, 2019, 01:21:30 AM »

Scheer had a great performance  and was the winner tonight
He looked good but not great IMO. His climate policy is trash and he didn't give enough specifics on how he would help lower and middle class Canadians. A lot of us up here know that Conservatives saying "we're going to put money in your pocket" means that our services will be cut, and we will be spending that money AND more to get the services we were getting already via taxes before the Conservatives got into power.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #1170 on: October 08, 2019, 01:31:30 AM »

Singh has actually been the most disciplined and on-message leader in this election, IMO. I still think he'll be out in two weeks though. Does anyone think there's a possibility he'll find a way to stay on...?
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T'Chenka
King TChenka
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« Reply #1171 on: October 08, 2019, 02:28:24 AM »

Singh has actually been the most disciplined and on-message leader in this election, IMO. I still think he'll be out in two weeks though. Does anyone think there's a possibility he'll find a way to stay on...?
If he has another good debate on Thursday and the NDP get a good number of seats in parliament, I could see it for sure. Polls indicate that Canadians like him now that they're more familiar with him. I could see the NDP lookimg at that and thinking that they can have a head-start with the public in the next election by sticking with Jagmeet.

He's closer to Jack Layton than he is to Mulcair in my eyes. I would prefer to stick with him.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #1172 on: October 08, 2019, 05:04:34 AM »

But what’s “a good number of seats?” It’s almost inevitable that they’re going to have a worse performance than 2015, which pretty much never looks good for a party leader.
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DL
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« Reply #1173 on: October 08, 2019, 06:08:21 AM »

Singh has actually been the most disciplined and on-message leader in this election, IMO. I still think he'll be out in two weeks though. Does anyone think there's a possibility he'll find a way to stay on...?

I would say he is guaranteed to stay on as NDP leader unless he loses his own seat and the party is reduced to a single digit seat count (unlikely). My impression is that the party members love him now and the feeling is that he is a good campaigner with long term prospects. It’s a total contrast to Mulcair who campaigned badly, kept going off message and was never personally liked at all.
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« Reply #1174 on: October 08, 2019, 06:12:06 AM »

I think the important thing in regards to Singh's survival is that you can sort of ignore Quebec? If the NDP caucus holds up in the rest of Canada, even if it's masked by a total blowout in Francophone ridings, that would be a healthy sign.
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