Canadian Election 2019
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Author Topic: Canadian Election 2019  (Read 189242 times)
parochial boy
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« Reply #1075 on: September 29, 2019, 06:10:54 AM »
« edited: September 29, 2019, 09:03:27 AM by parochial boy »

This may be a little bit off topic, but I'd like to ask a question: why is the area around Québec City so c/Conservative? I've heard people saying it's because of radio poubelle, which would be understandable, but do radio stations really have such a huge impact on politics? And if they do, why aren't they popular in other parts of the province?

Plus, a somewhat related question: why is Beauce so right-wing and federalist, despite being lily-white Franco? Is Maurice Duplessis still alive there?

Hash once wrote an amazing post about it, which I couldn't find, but iirc the main jist of it is that both Quebec City and the Beauce are very overwhelmingly francophone, which inherently means there isn't the "anglophone economic elite" as in Montréal that factors into separatist sentiment.

Add to that, the Beauce is old, white, rural and lowly educated yet relatively prosperous. And those last two factors tend to correlate to a strong right wing vote wherever you look (I may be wrong, but it also lacks, say the mining industry that you get in Abitibi-Témiscamingue or fishing like in Gaspésie; and those are industries that tend to encourage left wing voting, historically).

With Quebec city, as Miles mentioned, there is the second city dymanic. But it also has a slightly different class dynamic, as resentment tends to be directed toward the overpaid fonctionnaire, rather than the (anglophone) capitalist and cultural elite. Plus, unlike Montréal, it has relatively little immigration - and population growth has tended to be made up of people moving in from the already conservative Beauce.
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Estrella
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« Reply #1076 on: September 29, 2019, 07:24:27 AM »

Thanks guys, really good answers! Smiley
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1077 on: September 29, 2019, 04:38:56 PM »

Two big news stories today:

Liberals: Release platform and big on spending and also taxing the rich more.  Helped them in 2015, but didn't work out so well for Wynne and also still big holes so Tories do have opportunity to portray themselves as fiscally responsible party, but it will mean no big spending promises.

Conservatives: Looks like Andrew Scheer never was an insurance broker.  Worked as an assistant for one, but to be one you need to have a licence which he did not.  I suspect this will be slightly negative for Tories, but probably not fatal although does show he has limited private sector experience.
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DL
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« Reply #1078 on: September 29, 2019, 08:08:28 PM »

Its very ironic that the Tories are quick to denounce people as "career politicians" or to say that anyone working in the public sector are all parasites sucking on the public "teat"...but then you see people like Jason Kenney or Stephen Harper or Andrew Scheer who have never had a private sector job in their entire lives and who have been political junkies since they were children. Scheer has either been an assistant to an MP or been an Mp or been speaker since he was in his early 20s. He has no "profession" outside of politics.

Trudeau has also basically been in politics since he was born and never really had much of a career outside politics...just a few stints as a snowboard instructor and teaching drama part-time. in Contrast Jagmeet Singh and Elizabeth May are both lawyers and both had real careers before politics
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #1079 on: September 30, 2019, 12:15:43 AM »

Two big news stories today:

Liberals: Release platform and big on spending and also taxing the rich more.  Helped them in 2015, but didn't work out so well for Wynne and also still big holes so Tories do have opportunity to portray themselves as fiscally responsible party, but it will mean no big spending promises.

Conservatives: Looks like Andrew Scheer never was an insurance broker.  Worked as an assistant for one, but to be one you need to have a licence which he did not.  I suspect this will be slightly negative for Tories, but probably not fatal although does show he has limited private sector experience.

I would love to meet the guy who wakes up on election day and thinks to himself, you know, I was going to vote for the Tories today, but knowing that Andrew Scheer was only an assistant insurance broker instead of a full-membership insurance broker makes me rethink everything I thought about politics.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #1080 on: September 30, 2019, 12:18:30 AM »

Its very ironic that the Tories are quick to denounce people as "career politicians" or to say that anyone working in the public sector are all parasites sucking on the public "teat"...but then you see people like Jason Kenney or Stephen Harper or Andrew Scheer who have never had a private sector job in their entire lives and who have been political junkies since they were children. Scheer has either been an assistant to an MP or been an Mp or been speaker since he was in his early 20s. He has no "profession" outside of politics.

Trudeau has also basically been in politics since he was born and never really had much of a career outside politics...just a few stints as a snowboard instructor and teaching drama part-time. in Contrast Jagmeet Singh and Elizabeth May are both lawyers and both had real careers before politics

I do think there's a reason politicians whose only job experience is in being a lawyer tend not to highlight the fact that their only job experience is in being a lawyer, though.
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jaymichaud
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« Reply #1081 on: September 30, 2019, 03:30:54 PM »

May, Blanchet and Trudaeu are at the climate march in Montreal. Greta Thunberg is there also. It is expected to be big. Singh is at a march in Victoria.

....What is Trudeau marching for? He does know they're marching for him to make an impact, right?
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Krago
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« Reply #1082 on: September 30, 2019, 03:36:21 PM »

Every afternoon, Nanos publishes their three-day tracking poll of 'Preferred Prime Minster'.

In the past five days, Justin Trudeau's numbers have dropped from:

34.5%  -->  33.1%  -->  32.4%  -->  29.6%  -->  28.3%
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Poirot
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« Reply #1083 on: September 30, 2019, 08:30:34 PM »

May, Blanchet and Trudaeu are at the climate march in Montreal. Greta Thunberg is there also. It is expected to be big. Singh is at a march in Victoria.

....What is Trudeau marching for? He does know they're marching for him to make an impact, right?

Probably for the photo op and show he cares about the environment.
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Poirot
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« Reply #1084 on: September 30, 2019, 08:41:08 PM »

Every afternoon, Nanos publishes their three-day tracking poll of 'Preferred Prime Minster'.

In the past five days, Justin Trudeau's numbers have dropped from:

34.5%  -->  33.1%  -->  32.4%  -->  29.6%  -->  28.3%

It seems the cause is mostly young voters. Could be the climate day and young voters turning to more serious parties on this issue.
https://election.ctvnews.ca/the-greta-effect-nanos-survey-suggests-young-voters-turning-on-trudeau-1.4616701
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Poirot
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« Reply #1085 on: September 30, 2019, 09:04:55 PM »

The Munk debate on foreign policy was cancelled due to Trudeau not participating.

October 2 at 8pm on TVA and LCN there is a debate in French with Trudeau, Scheer, Singh and Blanchet. The three big topics are: economy and environment, governance and Quebec's place in Canada, immigration and social policy.

The leaders debate in English is on October 7. The five themes are: affordability and economic insecurity, environment and energy, Indigenous issues, national and global leadership, and polarization, human rights and immigration.

The big consortium debate in French is October 10. The five themes are: economy and finances, environment and energy, foreign policy and immigration, identity, ethics and governance, and services to citizens.

   
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adma
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« Reply #1086 on: October 01, 2019, 06:03:10 AM »

Every afternoon, Nanos publishes their three-day tracking poll of 'Preferred Prime Minster'.

In the past five days, Justin Trudeau's numbers have dropped from:

34.5%  -->  33.1%  -->  32.4%  -->  29.6%  -->  28.3%

It seems the cause is mostly young voters. Could be the climate day and young voters turning to more serious parties on this issue.
https://election.ctvnews.ca/the-greta-effect-nanos-survey-suggests-young-voters-turning-on-trudeau-1.4616701

And today, Scheer's jumped ahead of Trudeau (the latter static, the former 28.9)

And it's leaving more of an impact on party preferences: today's Nanos has the Cons up by half a point, the Libs down by half a point--which looks more dramatic rounded-off, as it turns a 34-33 race into a 35-32 race (in fact, it's 34.5 vs 32.2).

And with the "Greta bump" now in past tense when it comes to 3-day tracking, the Greens have fallen from 12.6 to 11.1.  (And the NDP back up from 13.2 to 14.3.)
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DL
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« Reply #1087 on: October 01, 2019, 06:43:53 AM »

The Greens must have had a real outlier of a good night on Friday since they jumped two points on Saturday morning...which is a huge bump from a three day roll and then they lost almost all of that today when the Friday night results were dropped
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DL
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« Reply #1088 on: October 01, 2019, 09:02:20 PM »


A big Manitoba poll by Probe show the Liberals plummeting in Winnipeg largely to the benefit of the NDP

https://www.winnipegfreepress.com/special/federal-election/ndp-makes-gains-in-winnipeg-at-liberals-expense-poll-561908582.html
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adma
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« Reply #1089 on: October 02, 2019, 06:12:03 AM »

Further post-Greta attrition for Greens thru Nanos (11.1 to 10.2; shifted to NDP 14.3 to 15.2); Libs jump 2 points back into the lead--and Justin 4 points back into the leadership-preference lead...
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lilTommy
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« Reply #1090 on: October 02, 2019, 06:30:54 AM »


I believe the NDP bump has been slowly happening in Winnipeg for a few months, probably thanks to the provincial election as well.
I still see the NDP likely holding Elmwood-Transcona, and Winnipeg Centre is looking more and more like a potential pick-up. But not much else I think. Enough though to maybe cost the LPC seats to the CPC.
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Krago
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« Reply #1091 on: October 02, 2019, 11:46:13 AM »

Further post-Greta attrition for Greens thru Nanos (11.1 to 10.2; shifted to NDP 14.3 to 15.2); Libs jump 2 points back into the lead--and Justin 4 points back into the leadership-preference lead...

The Liberals don't have to make their "Sorry, Not sorry" ad just yet.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ybRSFZjs0R8
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DL
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« Reply #1092 on: October 02, 2019, 12:39:26 PM »
« Edited: October 02, 2019, 12:43:00 PM by DL »


I believe the NDP bump has been slowly happening in Winnipeg for a few months, probably thanks to the provincial election as well.
I still see the NDP likely holding Elmwood-Transcona, and Winnipeg Centre is looking more and more like a potential pick-up. But not much else I think. Enough though to maybe cost the LPC seats to the CPC.

IMHO, regardless of the Liberals shedding support to the NDP, the Tories are almost guaranteed to pick up Kildonan-St. Paul and Assiniboia-Charleswood-Headingley. Those are usually safe Tory seats that went narrowly Liberal in the sweep of 2015. I expect the Liberals to easily hold Winnipeg South Centre and St. Boniface. Winnipeg South could be a close race. Of course were it not for the inexplicably popular Kevin Lamoureux, Winnipeg North would almost certainly go NDP as well. But for some bizarre reason anyone with the last name Lamoureux seems to be unbeatable in North Winnipeg.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1093 on: October 02, 2019, 02:39:05 PM »


I believe the NDP bump has been slowly happening in Winnipeg for a few months, probably thanks to the provincial election as well.
I still see the NDP likely holding Elmwood-Transcona, and Winnipeg Centre is looking more and more like a potential pick-up. But not much else I think. Enough though to maybe cost the LPC seats to the CPC.

IMHO, regardless of the Liberals shedding support to the NDP, the Tories are almost guaranteed to pick up Kildonan-St. Paul and Assiniboia-Charleswood-Headingley. Those are usually safe Tory seats that went narrowly Liberal in the sweep of 2015. I expect the Liberals to easily hold Winnipeg South Centre and St. Boniface. Winnipeg South could be a close race. Of course were it not for the inexplicably popular Kevin Lamoureux, Winnipeg North would almost certainly go NDP as well. But for some bizarre reason anyone with the last name Lamoureux seems to be unbeatable in North Winnipeg.

Charleswood-St. James-Assinboia-Headingly might stay Liberal as former Conservative MP Stephen Fletcher is running under PPC banner so a lot depends on how well PPC does.  If PPC does poorly, then it should flip back to Tories, but if PPC gets in double digits, might split votes enough on right for Liberals to come up the middle, otherwise sort of like 2000 when Canadian Alliance + PCs got over 50% there, but Liberals held it due to split on right.
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njwes
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« Reply #1094 on: October 03, 2019, 10:43:25 AM »

Interesting poll of native Canadians:

Con: 26%
Lib: 21
NDP: 17
Green: 16


n= "1,024 people self-identifying as First Nations, Inuit or Métis"

https://aptnnews.ca/2019/10/02/vote2019-climate-change-and-drinking-water-top-indigenous-issues-in-federal-election/
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #1095 on: October 03, 2019, 10:52:13 AM »

Interesting poll of native Canadians:

Con: 26%
Lib: 21
NDP: 17
Green: 16


n= "1,024 people self-identifying as First Nations, Inuit or Métis"

https://aptnnews.ca/2019/10/02/vote2019-climate-change-and-drinking-water-top-indigenous-issues-in-federal-election/
Are indigenous voters a bellwether bloc in Canada?
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cp
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« Reply #1096 on: October 03, 2019, 11:43:35 AM »

Interesting poll of native Canadians:

Con: 26%
Lib: 21
NDP: 17
Green: 16


n= "1,024 people self-identifying as First Nations, Inuit or Métis"

https://aptnnews.ca/2019/10/02/vote2019-climate-change-and-drinking-water-top-indigenous-issues-in-federal-election/
Are indigenous voters a bellwether bloc in Canada?


No. Inuit and Metis voters are concentrated in about 10 ridings in Manitoba and the high north and their votes respond more to local issues and/or the personalities of the people running. First Nations indigenous people are more spread out, though many of them live on reservations or in the downtowns of cities like Montreal, Halifax, and Toronto. In both cases they tend to be somewhat segregated from the non-indigenous population, and so tend to have different sets of political priorities.

Also, indigenous people make up about 5% of the total population and tend to vote in lower numbers than settler/immigrant groups.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1097 on: October 03, 2019, 12:06:58 PM »

Interesting poll of native Canadians:

Con: 26%
Lib: 21
NDP: 17
Green: 16


n= "1,024 people self-identifying as First Nations, Inuit or Métis"

https://aptnnews.ca/2019/10/02/vote2019-climate-change-and-drinking-water-top-indigenous-issues-in-federal-election/
Are indigenous voters a bellwether bloc in Canada?


Not even close, but Tories at 26% a bit surprising as usually they tend to vote heavily for left wing parties.  Last time around in predominately First Nation communities, Tory support was generally in the single digits so Tory support amongst them somewhat akin to GOP support amongst African-Americans.  That being said Tories do somewhat better amongst Metis.  Nevertheless largest concentration of First Nations is in Western Canada where the Liberals are struggling to begin with.  East of Manitoba/Ontario border, I can only think of three to four ridings where aboriginal population is large enough to make a big difference.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #1098 on: October 03, 2019, 12:08:27 PM »

Interesting poll of native Canadians:

Con: 26%
Lib: 21
NDP: 17
Green: 16


n= "1,024 people self-identifying as First Nations, Inuit or Métis"

https://aptnnews.ca/2019/10/02/vote2019-climate-change-and-drinking-water-top-indigenous-issues-in-federal-election/
Are indigenous voters a bellwether bloc in Canada?


No. Inuit and Metis voters are concentrated in about 10 ridings in Manitoba and the high north and their votes respond more to local issues and/or the personalities of the people running. First Nations indigenous people are more spread out, though many of them live on reservations or in the downtowns of cities like Montreal, Halifax, and Toronto. In both cases they tend to be somewhat segregated from the non-indigenous population, and so tend to have different sets of political priorities.

Also, indigenous people make up about 5% of the total population and tend to vote in lower numbers than settler/immigrant groups.

All from 2016 stats. The provinces of Manitoba and Saskatchewan have the highest % of peoples who are indigenous, 18% and 16%, outside of the Territories where Yukon (23%) is about a quarter and NWT (50.7%) and Nunavut (85%) have pluralities.

Winnipeg (92,000) and Edmonton (76,000) have the largest number of Indigenous peoples, whom make up 12% and 6% respectively. But Price Albert SK has the highest % of their cities population being indigenous, 39%. Thunder Bay (12%), Saskatoon (10%), Sudbury (9.7%) and Regina(9.3) round that out.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #1099 on: October 03, 2019, 12:24:43 PM »

Interesting poll of native Canadians:

Con: 26%
Lib: 21
NDP: 17
Green: 16


n= "1,024 people self-identifying as First Nations, Inuit or Métis"

https://aptnnews.ca/2019/10/02/vote2019-climate-change-and-drinking-water-top-indigenous-issues-in-federal-election/

This sample must be heavily non-reserve, as reserves vote monolithically 90% Liberal or NDP.
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