Canadian Election 2019

[Don Vito Corleone]

In any case after the publication of the pictures of Trudeau at a minstrel show - the Liberal strategy of dredging up bigoted quotes by Tory candidates form 15 years ago is now DEAD.

This is the biggest effect of the scandal IMO. The Liberal campaign had been going very well until this whole thing, and now they'll have to not only deal with some bad press (which on the face of it isn't a huge deal) but have to re-write their entire strategy in the middle of a campaign. If they lose, it'll be because either they weren't able to find a theme in time or because their new theme didn't resonate, not because of the blackface itself.

[Pandaguineapig]

In any case after the publication of the pictures of Trudeau at a minstrel show - the Liberal strategy of dredging up bigoted quotes by Tory candidates form 15 years ago is now DEAD.

This is the biggest effect of the scandal IMO. The Liberal campaign had been going very well until this whole thing, and now they'll have to not only deal with some bad press (which on the face of it isn't a huge deal) but have to re-write their entire strategy in the middle of a campaign. If they lose, it'll be because either they weren't able to find a theme in time or because their new theme didn't resonate, not because of the blackface itself.

it's similar to the fact that governor blackface spent his election campaign smearing Ed Gillespie as a racist. It's not so much the blackface as it is the fact people on the left will use old quotes or outright smears to attack their opponents for that which they themselves are guilty of

[Don Vito Corleone]

In any case after the publication of the pictures of Trudeau at a minstrel show - the Liberal strategy of dredging up bigoted quotes by Tory candidates form 15 years ago is now DEAD.

This is the biggest effect of the scandal IMO. The Liberal campaign had been going very well until this whole thing, and now they'll have to not only deal with some bad press (which on the face of it isn't a huge deal) but have to re-write their entire strategy in the middle of a campaign. If they lose, it'll be because either they weren't able to find a theme in time or because their new theme didn't resonate, not because of the blackface itself.

it's similar to the fact that governor blackface spent his election campaign smearing Ed Gillespie as a racist. It's not so much the blackface as it is the fact people on the left will use old quotes or outright smears to attack their opponents for that which they themselves are guilty of

The Northam comparisons are a bit silly tbh, Trudeau has handled this much better than Northam did (but of course, Northam wasn't in the middle of an election campaign). Also, I find a Republican complaining about other people's hypocrisy a bit rich but I don't want this thread to turn into another American politics discussion so I'll leave it at that.

[Pandaguineapig]

In any case after the publication of the pictures of Trudeau at a minstrel show - the Liberal strategy of dredging up bigoted quotes by Tory candidates form 15 years ago is now DEAD.

This is the biggest effect of the scandal IMO. The Liberal campaign had been going very well until this whole thing, and now they'll have to not only deal with some bad press (which on the face of it isn't a huge deal) but have to re-write their entire strategy in the middle of a campaign. If they lose, it'll be because either they weren't able to find a theme in time or because their new theme didn't resonate, not because of the blackface itself.

it's similar to the fact that governor blackface spent his election campaign smearing Ed Gillespie as a racist. It's not so much the blackface as it is the fact people on the left will use old quotes or outright smears to attack their opponents for that which they themselves are guilty of

The Northam comparisons are a bit silly tbh, Trudeau has handled this much better than Northam did (but of course, Northam wasn't in the middle of an election campaign). Also, I find a Republican complaining about other people's hypocrisy a bit rich but I don't want this thread to turn into another American politics discussion so I'll leave it at that.

it's the woke-leftist equivalent of a "family values" politician having a gay affair

[King of Kensington]

It's really in the aftermath of the 1988 "free trade election" that the modern "unite the left to stop the right" era began (never mind that there were other issues in 1988 besides free trade)--and then it went into overdrive once premiers like Mike Harris started to be elected, and of course Ralph Nader "thwarting" Al Gore in 2000, etc.  Up to that time, such strategic hysteria tended to be more the preserve of the stop-the-socialist-hordes *right* (cf Socred-era BC)

Yeah, strategic voting on the center-left really began in 1988.  1984 was the year Broadbent campaigned against the "Bobsey twins of Bay St" (corporate lawyers Brian Mulroney and John Turner).  But in the free trade election, the argument fell flat.

[DL]

So called strategic voting started long before that. The first election I was aware of was in 1974 and in that election the NDP lost half its seats because so many people were “terrified” that Stanfield would
Impose wage and price controls and switched from NDP to Liberal to stop Stanfield. Of course one year later the Trudeau Liberal brought in wage and price controls themselves but I digress

[adma]

So called strategic voting started long before that. The first election I was aware of was in 1974 and in that election the NDP lost half its seats because so many people were “terrified” that Stanfield would
Impose wage and price controls and switched from NDP to Liberal to stop Stanfield. Of course one year later the Trudeau Liberal brought in wage and price controls themselves but I digress

Funny thing is, 1974 and 1988 were more alike in that the scare tactics were more orthodoxly "policy-oriented", and less about "scary right-wingers" per se--then again, in those elections, Red Tories and Blue Liberals were much more a thing; they were more like what Maritime elections remain to this day...

[adma]

In any case after the publication of the pictures of Trudeau at a minstrel show - the Liberal strategy of dredging up bigoted quotes by Tory candidates form 15 years ago is now DEAD.

This is the biggest effect of the scandal IMO. The Liberal campaign had been going very well until this whole thing, and now they'll have to not only deal with some bad press (which on the face of it isn't a huge deal) but have to re-write their entire strategy in the middle of a campaign. If they lose, it'll be because either they weren't able to find a theme in time or because their new theme didn't resonate, not because of the blackface itself.

Or if they *don't* lose, it could be because of the Cons overplaying their card.

Incidentally, in today's Nanos 3-day running poll: the Cons have jolted down from 36.8 to 35.5, while the Libs bounced back from 32.0 to 32.9,  so it's inching back t/w dead-heat territory.  (NDP continue to inch ahead, from 13.7 to 14.0; Greens 9.0 to 9.5; Bloc 5.4 to 5.3; PPC 2.4 to 2.2.)

[Krago]

I think the main outcome of this whole incident is to make Justin Trudeau look ridiculous.

And a man in his position can’t afford to be made to look ridiculous.

[adma]

I think the main outcome of this whole incident is to make Justin Trudeau look ridiculous.

And a man in his position can’t afford to be made to look ridiculous.

Though the only one *not* looking ridiculous in this whole aftermath is Jagmeet Singh.

And looking further into the Nanos daily tracker: over four consecutive days, the Cons went from 37.8-37.4-36.8-35.5, and the Libs went from 35.0-34.2-32.0-32.9. That is, over the timespan since the blackface controversy broke, the Cons have not only consistently lost share, they've lost more net share than the Libs.

Whatever's going on, it's defiinitely not been working on CPC's behalf.

[King of Kensington]

So called strategic voting started long before that. The first election I was aware of was in 1974 and in that election the NDP lost half its seats because so many people were “terrified” that Stanfield would
Impose wage and price controls and switched from NDP to Liberal to stop Stanfield. Of course one year later the Trudeau Liberal brought in wage and price controls themselves but I digress

Were there national campaigns saying defeat the Conservative in your riding?  Or was 1974 more of a situation where voters stampeded to the Liberals out of fear on their own volition?

[rob in cal]

  Is there much discussion about what would happen if Conservatives win the most seats but not that close to a majority?

[adma]

  Is there much discussion about what would happen if Conservatives win the most seats but not that close to a majority?

Jagmeet Singh's already expressed his unwillingness to support a Conservative minority.  And there are recent precedents like BC and NB (and abroad, NZ) of lesser parties in minority situations forming government.

Though I wonder what might happen if Lib + NDP + Green don't add up to CPC: would the Bloc be up to supporting the Cons' right to govern?

[Pandaguineapig]

  Is there much discussion about what would happen if Conservatives win the most seats but not that close to a majority?

Depends on how close the conservatives are to a majority, if they're barely ahead of the liberals, the liberals could give concessions to the greens and NDP to establish a government. If the Tories are just short of a majority such a thing would be hard to put together especially if they would need the BQ to join as well

[Tintrlvr]

  Is there much discussion about what would happen if Conservatives win the most seats but not that close to a majority?

Jagmeet Singh's already expressed his unwillingness to support a Conservative minority.  And there are recent precedents like BC and NB (and abroad, NZ) of lesser parties in minority situations forming government.

Though I wonder what might happen if Lib + NDP + Green don't add up to CPC: would the Bloc be up to supporting the Cons' right to govern?

Why should we expect the Bloc wouldn't be up to tacitly supporting the Tories now after they did it just recently in 2006-2011?

[adma]

Why should we expect the Bloc wouldn't be up to tacitly supporting the Tories now after they did it just recently in 2006-2011?

Exactly.

[DL]

Keep in mind that as the incumbent PM, Trudeau doesn’t need to make any formal deal with anyone. He is PM until he is not. I assume that unless the CPC wins an actual majority, Trudeau would remain PM and would present a Throne Speech and then it would be up to the NDP, Greens and BQ to either pass the Throne Speech or vote it down in which case the GG would invite Scheer to try to pass a Throne Speech. If his Throne Speech also lost them we would have to have another election!

[Don Vito Corleone]

I’m on a discord server with someone who thinks more blackface photos are going to come out. Now normally I’d dismiss this and say the damage was done, but he says he thinks the photo might be more recent, from say 2006 or later. Now, if that happened I honestly don’t know what would happen. As we’ve seen most people really don’t care about all this stuff, but if it’s that recent the dynamic is obviously a little different. I could see it leaving quite a bit of damage but also I could see it not doing anything, with the first photos having done all the damage.

[Pericles]

I’m on a discord server with someone who thinks more blackface photos are going to come out. Now normally I’d dismiss this and say the damage was done, but he says he thinks the photo might be more recent, from say 2006 or later. Now, if that happened I honestly don’t know what would happen. As we’ve seen most people really don’t care about all this stuff, but if it’s that recent the dynamic is obviously a little different. I could see it leaving quite a bit of damage but also I could see it not doing anything, with the first photos having done all the damage.

2006 would certainly make it harder for people to use the distance in time between then and now as an excuse or mitigating factor. There are lots of other details that could factor in though.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

How much power do the lesser parties have in a minority government or coalition situation?

Let's say, for example, that the Tories win the most seats, but that the NDP and Liberal caucuses together form a majority (we will assumed the Liberals won substantially more seats than the NDP). Could Singh's offer to support a Liberal-led coalition be contingent on the Liberals selecting a new leader?

[toaster]

How much power do the lesser parties have in a minority government or coalition situation?

Let's say, for example, that the Tories win the most seats, but that the NDP and Liberal caucuses together form a majority (we will assumed the Liberals won substantially more seats than the NDP). Could Singh's offer to support a Liberal-led coalition be contingent on the Liberals selecting a new leader?

Basically the Liberals will try to out-left the NDP in a minority Liberal situation (to keep the NDPs support), and so that if/when the NDP  does force an election (i.e. non-confidence motion, like a budget), the Liberals will be able to say , look the NDP voted against all this.  See the Ontario 2014 election.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/althiaraj/status/1175941652109811713

[Walmart_shopper]

https://twitter.com/althiaraj/status/1175941652109811713

It's easy to be SJW Kingh when you can eat into your rival's electorate. It's less easy when it may actually cost you votes in ridings you want to win.

But tell me more about Jagmeet's unflinching commitment to fighting discrimination and racism.

[Walmart_shopper]

I’m on a discord server with someone who thinks more blackface photos are going to come out. Now normally I’d dismiss this and say the damage was done, but he says he thinks the photo might be more recent, from say 2006 or later. Now, if that happened I honestly don’t know what would happen. As we’ve seen most people really don’t care about all this stuff, but if it’s that recent the dynamic is obviously a little different. I could see it leaving quite a bit of damage but also I could see it not doing anything, with the first photos having done all the damage.

The problem is that people begin to shrug off new photos because they view it as tacky piling on rather than a genuine problem with Trudeau. And then Trudeau goes from victimizer to victim and the whole thing backfires. It looks aa though rather than offering a coherent and popular program for government his opponents are trying to make a campaign out of photographs. The right response is probably Scheer's, which is to use the scandal to make a broader case for Trudeau's incompetence rather than making blackface the whole thing. Naturally, though, the right wing commentariate is less interested in electing Scheer than drooling over liberal hypocrisy and demanding to know why liberal people get away with so much. Hence Scheer's message gets drowned out by his own supporters.

[DC Al Fine]

Mainstreet has their full three days of post brownface polling out. (Change from pre-brownface polling in parentheses)

Conservative: 34.8% (+0.4)
Liberal: 33.9% (-3.3)
NDP: 11.4% (+1.6)
Green: 10.7% (+0.6)
Bloc 4.9% (+0.4)
People's: 3.6% (+0.3)