Canadian Election 2019

[King of Kensington]

I'm getting the sense that Toronto's suburbs are looking more like the Vancouver ones, in terms of ethnic voting trends. Chinese communities leaning more conservative while the South Asian community leaning more progressive (Liberal and or NDP)

Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto, Winnipeg and Vancouver all voted rather similarly in 2015.

[136or142]

Also, Leaders debate, my take:

Scheer -> calm, but bland and boringly so. Spoke well and hit his points, but got caught a numbers of times in fights he just couldn't handle and effectively said he'd prioritize cuts over balanced budgets (not a big surprise but still). Didn't "win" or gain anything, but also didn't lose anything.

May -> loaded with info, a fountain of facts, but she came across and condescending at times and arrogant others. But also very knowledgeable and spoke clearly to points. But outright lied when caught by Singh around recent revelations about the Greens (abortion, sovereignty, propping CPC up, she said "that's a lie", but they aren't). Solid performance, but not a win. 

Singh -> cool and calm, spoke to people and about people, the most personable. But should have delved deeper into policies, I felt he was lacking on some detail. Went right after Scheer and Trudeau, even May, but nailed Scheer with a few jabs he was not expecting (around Trump in particular). Moderators were all united here, this was Singh's to claim as a win, and performed better then expected.

Trudeau -> didn't even show, so be default he was defined by how everyone else painted him, honestly the clear loser here. But, he does have one advantage, he just saw a bit of his competition and likely took notes.

Of Note, arguably in 2015 the Macleans debate was where Trudeau's performance helped turn the momentum towards him. I can see some of that going to both Singh and Scheer even.

Just to add, the main takeaway for those who didn't watch the debate are those photos of the empty podium where Trudeau was supposed to be, and the one of May pretending to shake MIA Trudeau's hand. Could help May and hurt Trudeau.

Impossible to know, of course. However, outside of the hyper partisans, voters usually don't care about these sorts of things, especially since Trudeau will be taking part in the 2 'official' debates (as well as another French language debate.)

All Brian Pallister agreed to was a single 50 minute debate in Manitoba, and he just got comfortably reelected.

[adma]

With that in mind, Scheer is stuck between a rock and a hard place. It's not like the Scheer handpicked this woman for York Centre, and not signing a pro-life nomination winner's nomination papers is the sort of thing that might get socons to revolt, so I'm not sure I'd call it boneheaded.

Except for the kind of riding it is, and the kind of Conservative base (or at least, *voting* base) the riding has.

[King of Kensington]

The Conservative running in Eglinton-Lawrence is a better fit for that base. 

[DC Al Fine]

With that in mind, Scheer is stuck between a rock and a hard place. It's not like the Scheer handpicked this woman for York Centre, and not signing a pro-life nomination winner's nomination papers is the sort of thing that might get socons to revolt, so I'm not sure I'd call it boneheaded.

Except for the kind of riding it is, and the kind of Conservative base (or at least, *voting* base) the riding has.

Certainly you're right at the riding level. I'm just saying if a pro-life candidate is fired in riding A, it might cause pro-lifers in ridings B, C, and D to consider going elsewhere.

[adma]

With that in mind, Scheer is stuck between a rock and a hard place. It's not like the Scheer handpicked this woman for York Centre, and not signing a pro-life nomination winner's nomination papers is the sort of thing that might get socons to revolt, so I'm not sure I'd call it boneheaded.

Except for the kind of riding it is, and the kind of Conservative base (or at least, *voting* base) the riding has.

Certainly you're right at the riding level. I'm just saying if a pro-life candidate is fired in riding A, it might cause pro-lifers in ridings B, C, and D to consider going elsewhere.

Said tripwire circumstance sounds like the Conservative equivalent of the tug-of-war the NDP (or left/labour in general, think Corbynism in Britain) can face with *its* grassroots.

The Conservative running in Eglinton-Lawrence is a better fit for that base.

And arguably to a fault, in the sense of lacking the "reach" with the "Gentile" electorate that Joe Oliver, with his Bay Street connections, had.

[adma]

The main fault line in Scarborough politics, as adma has pointed out, is "Chinese" vs. "non-Chinese" Scarborough.  That was very evident in the provincial election where the PCs cracked 50% in Agincourt and Scarborough North but were held below 40% in the other ridings.  It'll be interesting to see if Scarborough North comes in at a clear #2 for Conservative vote in Scarborough.  It is heavily Chinese but has countervailing tendencies in its eastern half that Agincourt lacks.  

Though in a way, there's something like *three* Scarboroughs--the Con-trending Chinese in the north, the "Ford Liberal" ethnoburban middle, and the white(ish) south along Kingston Rd & the Bluffs which *once* would have been the most Conservative part, but of a "Mayor Tory" rather than Doug Ford sort.  The latter is what helped save Mitzie Hunter provincially last year, and nearly elected the NDP in Scarborough-Rouge Park as well...

[King of Kensington]

I wonder if Rachel Willson signed up a lot of Filipino community members.

[adma]

I wonder if Rachel Willson signed up a lot of Filipino community members.

Or, who knows about the west end of the riding, Downsview et al--which in 2014 mayoral terms was more "Ford" than "Tory", and where the Italo-Catholic and "Prayer Palace" ethnoburban-evangelical undercurrent might be more amenable to the socon pitch...

[King of Kensington]

York Centre is basically Eglinton-Lawrence minus North Toronto. 

[Poirot]

Mainstreet's new poll done September 11 to 13 has the PLC and CPC tied at 36% because of difference in Quebec numbers. Don't see a report on the pollster's website but Quebec numbers are in Le Soleil. The LPC had a lead of 19% in Quebec but 8,2% in this one.

LPC 33%, CPC 24,8%, BQ 18,6%, Green 9,5%, NDP 7,9%.

https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/politique/la-laicite-fait-mal-aux-liberaux-au-quebec-selon-un-sondage-mainstreet-1403d1a58a79e92e698dffff188b5565
Pollster thinks the issue of federal intervention in court challenge of Quebec's bill 21 (secular / religious symbol) is hurting Liberal support. This was Mainstreet last poll numbers:    

Mainstreet 6-8 September, 1876 people, margin 2.3%

LPC⁩ 37.5%
⁦CPC⁩ 34%
⁦Green⁩ 10.8%
⁦NDP⁩ 8.4%
PPC⁩ 4.6%
⁦Bloc⁩ 3.6%

Some partial regional numbers found in Le Soleil newspaper so public.
https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/politique/sondage-mainstreet-legere-avance-liberale-0c5a16de8d2878b84871813a4a537e60⁦

Ontario: PLC 45% CPC 30% Green 10.1 NDP 7.5 PPC 5.4
Quebec: LPC 40% CPC 21% Bloc 16% Green 9.6 NDP 8.8 PPC 4.1
BC: CPC 37% LPC 25% Green 18% NDP 13% PPC 5.1

So in Quebec LPC down 7%, CPC up about 4 and Bloc up about 3. Let's see if other pollsters find the same thing to know if there is movement. Mainstreet showed a larger lead compared to others, so could also be getting more near the average or a temporary thing.

[DC Al Fine]

Green's are releasing their platform today. Obviously they aren't implementing it in toto, but it might give a clue about what the price of their support will be in a minority parliament.

[lilTommy]

Nanos tracking 9/16 ->
CPC 34.4%,
LPC 34%,
NDP 16.4%,
Greens 7.8%,
PPC 2.3%. 
*BQ was at 20.0% in Quebec

https://myemail.constantcontact.com/CTV-News-Globe-and-Mail-Nanos-Nightly-Tracking---BALLOT---CPC-34-4--LPC-34-0--NDP-16-4--GP-7-8--PPC-2-3---three-nights-ending-Se.html?soid=1101375804867&aid=r0aU2uQmT0k

Nanos 9/14&15th ->
LPC 35%,
CPC 32%,
NDP 17%,
Green 10%

https://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/2019-1445-CTV-Globe-ELXN-Ballot-Ending-September-14-2019.pdf

[lilTommy]

And the NDP candidate in Longueuil-Saint-Hubert is...

Eric Ferland, former leader of the Quebec Green Party

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1302108/npd-elections-candidat-parti-vert-longueuil-nantel?fbclid=IwAR1wCaATAXY4AZW3-pHIJ-9nxHYa3DO4fua4YDpE2-amdUVUL0LW9phCeG8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SeH4zd360uY&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR1vZKgP6Bl9GprbquIAcjD1079C5dq5reGoNZyRL1njxrWxf6sbwVL_Cvs


SO... the NDP candidate is a former Green, the Green candidate is a former NDP, the Liberal is a former PQ

[DL]

Nanos tracking 9/16 ->
CPC 34.4%,
LPC 34%,
NDP 16.4%,
Greens 7.8%,
PPC 2.3%. 
*BQ was at 20.0% in Quebec

https://myemail.constantcontact.com/CTV-News-Globe-and-Mail-Nanos-Nightly-Tracking---BALLOT---CPC-34-4--LPC-34-0--NDP-16-4--GP-7-8--PPC-2-3---three-nights-ending-Se.html?soid=1101375804867&aid=r0aU2uQmT0k

Nanos 9/14&15th ->
LPC 35%,
CPC 32%,
NDP 17%,
Green 10%

https://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/2019-1445-CTV-Globe-ELXN-Ballot-Ending-September-14-2019.pdf

The Greens must have really dropped like a stone over the weekend to lose almost two points in one day...at this rate they will be back at their usual 5-6% and when all the dust settles they may end up with just 2 seats and people will refer to them as the most overrated story of the election

[RogueBeaver]

Bernier will be in the official debates.

[DC Al Fine]

Bernier will be in the official debates.

Wonder what seat(s) besides Beauce they thought the PPC had a reasonable chance of winning.

[mileslunn]

Bernier will be in the official debates.

Wonder what seat(s) besides Beauce they thought the PPC had a reasonable chance of winning.

No idea, but even Beauce I doubt they will win.

As per impact, could hurt the Tories but most on right hate Trudeau with a passion and will vote for whomever is most likely to defeat him so impact at most minor.  Also it will make Scheer look moderate when compared to Bernier although I suspect by that point in the campaign opinions will be pretty baked in.  French debate probably more likely to have impact as Quebec is known for large late swings whereas other provinces much less so.

[King of Kensington]

Tories attack Harper-appointed GG David Johnston as a Liberal stooge:

https://twitter.com/CBCKatie/status/1173670456882339846

[DC Al Fine]

It occurs to me that the Bloc will be in the English debate. How is Blanchet's English compared to Duceppe's?

[Hatman 🍁]

Bernier will be in the official debates.

Wonder what seat(s) besides Beauce they thought the PPC had a reasonable chance of winning.

No idea, but even Beauce I doubt they will win.

As per impact, could hurt the Tories but most on right hate Trudeau with a passion and will vote for whomever is most likely to defeat him so impact at most minor.  Also it will make Scheer look moderate when compared to Bernier although I suspect by that point in the campaign opinions will be pretty baked in.  French debate probably more likely to have impact as Quebec is known for large late swings whereas other provinces much less so.

I wrote the report to the Debate commission on behalf of EKOS, providing our two cents based on the polling we did for them. All the data is on their site, but the top two ridings were Nipissing-Timiskaming and Etobicoke North.

Amusing that Andrew Scheer is blasting us as a "Liberal" polling firm, but I certainly am no Liberal!

[mileslunn]

Bernier will be in the official debates.

Wonder what seat(s) besides Beauce they thought the PPC had a reasonable chance of winning.

No idea, but even Beauce I doubt they will win.

As per impact, could hurt the Tories but most on right hate Trudeau with a passion and will vote for whomever is most likely to defeat him so impact at most minor.  Also it will make Scheer look moderate when compared to Bernier although I suspect by that point in the campaign opinions will be pretty baked in.  French debate probably more likely to have impact as Quebec is known for large late swings whereas other provinces much less so.

I wrote the report to the Debate commission on behalf of EKOS, providing our two cents based on the polling we did for them. All the data is on their site, but the top two ridings were Nipissing-Timiskaming and Etobicoke North.

Amusing that Andrew Scheer is blasting us as a "Liberal" polling firm, but I certainly am no Liberal!

Not surprised about Etobicoke North, but why Nipissing-Timiskaming?  Is the PPC candidate some well known person there?

[DC Al Fine]

Bernier will be in the official debates.

Wonder what seat(s) besides Beauce they thought the PPC had a reasonable chance of winning.

No idea, but even Beauce I doubt they will win.

As per impact, could hurt the Tories but most on right hate Trudeau with a passion and will vote for whomever is most likely to defeat him so impact at most minor.  Also it will make Scheer look moderate when compared to Bernier although I suspect by that point in the campaign opinions will be pretty baked in.  French debate probably more likely to have impact as Quebec is known for large late swings whereas other provinces much less so.

I wrote the report to the Debate commission on behalf of EKOS, providing our two cents based on the polling we did for them. All the data is on their site, but the top two ridings were Nipissing-Timiskaming and Etobicoke North.

Amusing that Andrew Scheer is blasting us as a "Liberal" polling firm, but I certainly am no Liberal!

Not surprised about Etobicoke North, but why Nipissing-Timiskaming?  Is the PPC candidate some well known person there?

They're running a city councilor in that riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

I was surprised too, but Bernier had it on his list. Their candidate is a North Bay city councillor who was originally the Conservative candidate but was delisted.

[DC Al Fine]

Maxime Bernier appears to have finally left Beauce, and will be touring around Anglo New Brunswick the next few days. Trying to go after the People's Alliance vote presumably.