Canadian Election 2019

[King of Kensington]

NDP could be facing a 1993-type catastrophe.  I guess Elizabeth May is the more successful Mel Hurtig in this scenario.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP saved face in 1993 by having a popular government in Saskatchewan. None of the seats they won in that election are "safe NDP" seats nowadays, and most of them weren't even won by the party in 2011. The NDP didn't even win Vancouver East in 1993.

While the provincial NDP is popular in BC, they could get outflanked by the Greens there. Things could be very bad indeed.

[adma]

The NDP saved face in 1993 by having a popular government in Saskatchewan. None of the seats they won in that election are "safe NDP" seats nowadays, and most of them weren't even won by the party in 2011. The NDP didn't even win Vancouver East in 1993.

While the provincial NDP is popular in BC, they could get outflanked by the Greens there. Things could be very bad indeed.

Actually, the interesting thing about 2019 as opposed to 1993 is how the present crisis in the federal NDP seems entirely self-inflicted, and there isn't some massive provincial spectre a la Bob Rae further weighing down party fortunes--in fact, for the most part the provincial parties (or reasonable quasi-proxies a la QS) seem in reasonable enough shape; or it's the feds pushing *them* down as opposed to vice versa.  The biggest black hole (not counting the provincial NPD in Quebec) is New Brunswick--but compared to the Rae government in '93, that ought to be nothing, the optics of the present defection aside.

So, let's see, 1993 vs 2019 provincially...

BC: the Horgan gov'ts less beleaguered than Harcourt's was at that juncture.  So things are up.
Alta: Notley lost in '19, but with the integrity of a decent opposition caucus--by comparison, in King Ralph's first election, the NDP was wiped out completely.  So things are up.

Sask: Things obviously down from Romanow days; but presently in a treading-water way--what's more relevant is the provincial-federal schism over Erin Weir et al.

Man:  Sort of "up" relative to par in both elections--Doer faring well in opposition then, Kinew faring well in the provincial election so far.

Ont: Definitely up from Rae--even if not *really* capitalizing on OO status the way they might.  Jagmeet doldrums might be weighing them down; but it certainly isn't Andrea doldrums weighing Jagmeet down.

QC: up by default, particularly if one counts QS.  But post-Orange Crush circumstances and the so-far embarrassing attempts to set up a provincial NPD offer a "deflationary" tableau, anyway--it only looks good compared to the 1.5% in 1993.

NB: down; but then, they had a provincial caucus-of-one in '93,  so it's not like they're going down from a lot.  The Green symbolism's what's important here.

PEI: down due to same Green symbolism; but for them, it was *zilch* in '93.

NS: sorta-down: they were small-but-chipper provincially then under Alexa, whereas they're larger-but-deflationary now (Zann's federal party jump; losing Timberlea, which had been one of the seats they *held* in '93, in a byelection)

Newf: up against a down grain, i.e. outperforming the lack of a full slate.

[Poirot]

Abacus has a poll with 4,500 respondents.

Conservative 34
Liberal 33
NDP 17
Green 9
Bloc 4
People's 3

https://abacusdata.ca/a-tale-of-two-or-more-races/

Ontario Lib 37 CPC 33 NDP 19
Quebec Lib 35 CPC 23 BQ 18 NDP 12
BC CPC 31 Lib 29 NDP 22 Green 14   

[Poirot]

Slogans of political parties

CPC: It's time for you to get ahead / Plus. Pour vous. Dès maintenant.

LPC: Choose forward / Choisir d’avancer

NDP: In it for you / On se bat pour vous

Green: Not Left. Not Right. Forward Together / Ni à droite ni à gauche. Vers l’avant ensemble

BQ: Le Québec, c'est nous

PPC: Strong and free / Fort et libre

[Former President tack50]

No French slogan for PPC? Considering the only seat they can win is in Quebec that seems like an odd choice.

[lilTommy]

Slogans of political parties

CPC: It's time for you to get ahead / Plus. Pour vous. Dès maintenant.

LPC: Choose forward / Choisir d’avancer

NDP: In it for you / On se bat pour vous

Green: Not Left. Not Right. Forward Together / Ni à droite ni à gauche. Vers l’avant ensemble

BQ: Le Québec, c'est nous

PPC: Strong and free

Interesting the NDP, CPC french slogans are not the same as the English ones, while the GPC and LPC are more literal translations

CPC translates to "More. For you. Right now"
NDP translates to "We fight for you"

both are more, straight forward, even aggressive or intense then the English slogans. The NDP french ad is also more forceful and bold. For Singh to have his hair out, turban off is very personal and intimate of a message.

[lilTommy]

OK so this New Brunswick issue is just messy:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/ndp-greens-defectors-non-defectors-1.5271235

- Claim was that 14 former NDP prov.candidates would defect to the Greens, who they claim had a better shot a winning (arguable here).
- NOW only 7 are actually going to the Greens AND the primary reason is Jagmeet's race and religion, the defectors claiming that it will be a problem for them...to what, be decent human beings? and be able to defend a non-white, non-christian?
- at least 5 who were named all say they were surprised to see their names on that list and all continue to support the NDP

NDP - well it can't look anything but "not good" to have people leave, but with the revelations of lies (or at best mistakes or misrepresentation) has generated sympathy and some grassroots motivation to help the party (I've seen a number of progressive non-ndp members speak about supporting the party now)

Greens - what once looks like a real win, looks again "fairly not great"; gaining members due to racist reasoning can't make one look good. And to then double down saying the NDP strong armed them back? It's the Pierre Nantel bigoted hypocrisy all over again (he said he can't support a leader with overt religious symbols... as he stood with May who was wearing visibly a Cross).

** note, I personally take these stories hard, as a member of an equity community, all my life I've heard these types of things as someone in the LGBT community

[DC Al Fine]

New Vancouver Granville poll

JWR: 37%
Lib: 27%
Con: 15%
Green: 12%
NDP: 7%

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Mainstreet Research is doing their daily tracker poll again this year. Looks like you get some access to riding polls and some other news items from iPolitics as well. Pricing seems rather steep at $220 plus HST for September and October coverage or $150 for just October. Not sure  whether official party is just for candidates/party organizers or if it's open to anyone that is a member of a registered political party; but that category is only $46 a month.

https://ipolitics.ca/premium-election-coverage/

[Poirot]

No French slogan for PPC? Considering the only seat they can win is in Quebec that seems like an odd choice.

I've edited the post. I wasn't sure if it was their election slogan. I've read an article on slogan that said it's Strong and Free. It's on their merchandise. Their French line is Frort et libre.

Same thing with the Greens. Maybe the slogan is a party identification pn the website and not the electoral slogan. It's a bit long. I think the Greens are classified as progressives but the party says it's not left or right. They may want wider appeal, all the non ideological people. The article mentioned the slogan so I wrote it.

All the other parties have had announcements reported by media about their slogans for the election.

[Poirot]

Mainstreet Research is doing their daily tracker poll again this year. Looks like you get some access to riding polls and some other news items from iPolitics as well. Pricing seems rather steep at $220 plus HST for September and October coverage or $150 for just October. Not sure  whether official party is just for candidates/party organizers or if it's open to anyone that is a member of a registered political party; but that category is only $46 a month.

https://ipolitics.ca/premium-election-coverage/

Looks like there will be two weeks of campaign in Septemeber and three in October. The Quebec riding polls are usually released in public through their association with regional newspapers.

Mainstreet says they have riding polls coming during next week. The have four in Quebec: Sherbrooke, Trois-Rivières, Louis-Hébert (in Quebec City) and Beloeil-Chambly. 

[Poirot]

both are more, straight forward, even aggressive or intense then the English slogans. The NDP french ad is also more forceful and bold. For Singh to have his hair out, turban off is very personal and intimate of a message.

General opinion on the French ad finds it a good ad but questions if it will change things much. With the ad and a Montreal town hall and meeting the mayor of Quebec City, Singh is having some coverage.

[Poirot]

TVA network will have a debate in French October 2 with four leaders. May and Bernier were not invited. Doesn't seem like Trudeau will go to Maclean's or Munk debates.   

At the moment the schedule and attendees looks like this

September 12 Maclean's and Citytv
Scheer, Singh, May

Munk debate on foreign policy October 1
Scheer, Singh, May

TVA October 2
Trudeau, Scheer, Singh, Blanchet

Leaders' debates commission (English) October 7
Trudeau, Scheer, Singh, Blanchet, May

Leaders' debates commission (French) October 10
Trudeau, Scheer, Singh, Blanchet, May

[xelas81]

TVA network will have a debate in French October 2 with four leaders. May and Bernier were not invited. Doesn't seem like Trudeau will go to Maclean's or Munk debates.   

At the moment the schedule and attendees looks like this

September 12 Maclean's and Citytv
Scheer, Singh, May

Munk debate on foreign policy October 1
Scheer, Singh, May

TVA October 2
Trudeau, Scheer, Singh, Blanchet

Leaders' debates commission (English) October 7
Trudeau, Scheer, Singh, Blanchet, May

Leaders' debates commission (French) October 10
Trudeau, Scheer, Singh, Blanchet, May

Who is Blanchet?

[Poirot]

Yves-François Blanchet is the Bloc Québécois leader.

The party is running canddiates only in Quebec. The party's goal should be to get at least 12 seats to have official status in Parliament, They haven't had that status in the last eigh years.   

[cinyc]

Yves-François Blanchet is the Bloc Québécois leader.

The party is running canddiates only in Quebec. The party's goal should be to get at least 12 seats to have official status in Parliament, They haven't had that status in the last eigh years.   

Did the Bloc ever run candidates outside of Quebec?

[Poirot]

Yves-François Blanchet is the Bloc Québécois leader.

The party is running canddiates only in Quebec. The party's goal should be to get at least 12 seats to have official status in Parliament, They haven't had that status in the last eigh years.   

Did the Bloc ever run candidates outside of Quebec?

No,

[Poirot]

Abacus has a poll with 4,500 respondents.

Conservative 34
Liberal 33
NDP 17
Green 9
Bloc 4
People's 3

https://abacusdata.ca/a-tale-of-two-or-more-races/

Ontario Lib 37 CPC 33 NDP 19 Green 9
Quebec Lib 35 CPC 23 BQ 18 NDP 12
BC CPC 31 Lib 29 NDP 22 Green 14  

On twitter there is data for Ontario subregions

Toronto: LPC 44 CPC 29 NDP 15 Green 8
GTHA postal code L : LPC 37 CPC 35 NDP 19 Green 7
East: LPC 41 CPC 24 NDP 21 Green 8
SW: LPC 29, CPC 40 NDP 17 Green 11
North (sample of 64): LPC 33 CPC 23 NDP 24 Green 17  

[Continential]

Yves-François Blanchet is the Bloc Québécois leader.

The party is running canddiates only in Quebec. The party's goal should be to get at least 12 seats to have official status in Parliament, They haven't had that status in the last eigh years.   

Did the Bloc ever run candidates outside of Quebec?

No,

Why don't they run candidates in New Brunswick? They have a sizable french minority in there.

[adma]

Why don't they run candidates in New Brunswick? They have a sizable french minority in there.

Simple answer--it's the Bloc Quebecois, not the Bloc Francophone.

[Pandaguineapig]

Yves-François Blanchet is the Bloc Québécois leader.

The party is running canddiates only in Quebec. The party's goal should be to get at least 12 seats to have official status in Parliament, They haven't had that status in the last eigh years.   

Did the Bloc ever run candidates outside of Quebec?

No,

Why don't they run candidates in New Brunswick? They have a sizable french minority in there.

They're an explicitly Quebec Nationalistic party, it would be like the SNP running candidates in England or Wales

[King of Kensington]

On twitter there is data for Ontario subregions

Toronto: LPC 44 CPC 29 NDP 15
GTHA postal code L : LPC 37 CPC 35 NDP 19
East: LPC 41 CPC 24 NDP 21
SW: LPC 29, CPC 40 NDP 17
North (sample of 64): LPC 33 CPC 23 NDP 24 Green 17   

Does anyone have City of Toronto popular vote for 2015?

[toaster]

Abacus has a poll with 4,500 respondents.

Conservative 34
Liberal 33
NDP 17
Green 9
Bloc 4
People's 3

https://abacusdata.ca/a-tale-of-two-or-more-races/

Ontario Lib 37 CPC 33 NDP 19
Quebec Lib 35 CPC 23 BQ 18 NDP 12
BC CPC 31 Lib 29 NDP 22 Green 14   

On twitter there is data for Ontario subregions

Toronto: LPC 44 CPC 29 NDP 15
GTHA postal code L : LPC 37 CPC 35 NDP 19
East: LPC 41 CPC 24 NDP 21
SW: LPC 29, CPC 40 NDP 17
North (sample of 64): LPC 33 CPC 23 NDP 24 Green 17   

Why is Green only mentioned for the North?
Anyway, I think Angus will lose his seat to the Liberal candidate (same goes for Hughes in AMK).

[DabbingSanta]

I love watching the 338Canada site and their forecasts. They are currently predicting a Trudeau majority (48% odds) despite the close polling. They actually have the Conservatives ahead by 0.7% in the popular vote total. I can't recall any instances of that happening in my lifetime*. We shall see.

Edit: It last happened in 1979, with Joe Clark forming a minority gov't