Canadian Election 2019
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Author Topic: Canadian Election 2019  (Read 189178 times)
beesley
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #625 on: August 03, 2019, 12:23:03 PM »



I did not know about this at all. He was certainly one of the most personable Conservative MPs, and I suspect people will praise how he stuck up for immigrants to Canada when his party would not.




The comments say it all.
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VPH
vivaportugalhabs
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« Reply #626 on: August 03, 2019, 02:24:58 PM »

Very saddened by Deepak Obhrai's loss. I had the pleasure of meeting him at a small campaign event in Montreal when he ran for leader. He entertained us all with stories of defeating the political establishment. What a great guy and somebody dedicated to all Canadians.
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Njall
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« Reply #627 on: August 03, 2019, 10:51:39 PM »

I'm saddened by his loss as well. In a city like Calgary, Conservative MPs like Mr. Obhrai with such spirit and personality are a rarity, and he was a refreshing exception.

I will wait with muted anticipation to see who the party appoints to replace him.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #628 on: August 04, 2019, 08:32:32 AM »

Grit Denis Paradis isn't running again in Brome-Missisquoi.
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beesley
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #629 on: August 04, 2019, 10:09:38 AM »


Why did he only decide now? Once Simms and Dhillon were nominated, I was sure everyone who was planning to retire had done so.

Safe Liberal.
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Poirot
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« Reply #630 on: August 04, 2019, 10:32:00 PM »

Former cycling athlete Lyne Bessette is seeking the Lieral nomination in Brome-Missisquoi.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/sports/1246084/lyne-bessette-candidate-investiture-liberale-brome-missisquoi

So doesn't look like Paradis just made the decision. She was recruited. It's managing the annoucement.
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beesley
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #631 on: August 05, 2019, 01:17:25 AM »

Former cycling athlete Lyne Bessette is seeking the Lieral nomination in Brome-Missisquoi.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/sports/1246084/lyne-bessette-candidate-investiture-liberale-brome-missisquoi

So doesn't look like Paradis just made the decision. She was recruited. It's managing the annoucement.

What's this obsession with getting sportspeople to run these days?
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beesley
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #632 on: August 05, 2019, 01:20:31 AM »

New riding poll in Quebec (Mainstreet again - these are the toplines):

Liberal (incumbent cabinet minister Duclos) - 30
Con - 23.4
Bloc (former MP Christine Gagnon running) - 20
NPD - 7
Green - 6.9
PPC - 2.7
Undecided - 8.4

Not a bad result for Duclos given his tally last time. Cons hoping to take this and neighbouring Louis-Hebert.
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mileslunn
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #633 on: August 06, 2019, 02:25:31 PM »

New riding poll in Quebec (Mainstreet again - these are the toplines):

Liberal (incumbent cabinet minister Duclos) - 30
Con - 23.4
Bloc (former MP Christine Gagnon running) - 20
NPD - 7
Green - 6.9
PPC - 2.7
Undecided - 8.4

Not a bad result for Duclos given his tally last time. Cons hoping to take this and neighbouring Louis-Hebert.

Not a total surprise.  While Tories tend to do well in Quebec City region, this riding has always been a struggle for centre-right parties, even provincially it went QS, not CAQ so a Tory pickup here was always a longshot.  Has lots of civil servants, people in tourism industry, and students, all groups that tend to generally lean left.  The other Quebec City ridings are more suburban thus more favourable for parties on the right.
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beesley
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #634 on: August 07, 2019, 02:25:57 PM »

Two interesting candidacies:

The first, and probably the slightly more consequential: Former MLA for Calgary Bow and BC Liberal candidate in Nanaimo-North Cowichan has been nominated for the CPC in Alistair MacGregor's riding of Cowichan-Malahat-Langford. Both 338 and EPP have it going Green.

The second: Actor Jesse Lipscombe is putting himself forward for the Liberal nomination in true blue St Albert-Edmonton.
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gottsu
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« Reply #635 on: August 07, 2019, 02:46:18 PM »

If Liberals will fail to get 170 seats in House of Commons, does NDP and/or Greens would be willing to support Trudeau's minority govt or even participate in coalition govt?

Canadian politics newbie is asking.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #636 on: August 07, 2019, 03:22:20 PM »

If Liberals will fail to get 170 seats in House of Commons, does NDP and/or Greens would be willing to support Trudeau's minority govt or even participate in coalition govt?

Canadian politics newbie is asking.

Support yes, coalition no.
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gottsu
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« Reply #637 on: August 07, 2019, 04:28:05 PM »

If Liberals will fail to get 170 seats in House of Commons, does NDP and/or Greens would be willing to support Trudeau's minority govt or even participate in coalition govt?

Canadian politics newbie is asking.

Support yes, coalition no.

There is no tradition of coalition goverments in Canada? Why?
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mileslunn
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #638 on: August 07, 2019, 05:11:55 PM »

If Liberals will fail to get 170 seats in House of Commons, does NDP and/or Greens would be willing to support Trudeau's minority govt or even participate in coalition govt?

Canadian politics newbie is asking.

Support yes, coalition no.

There is no tradition of coalition goverments in Canada? Why?

With FTFP, most of the time the winning party wins a majority so no incentive for a coalition, their goal is introduce popular policies while a minority and dare opposition to vote them down and use that as a springboard for an early election to gain a majority.
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beesley
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #639 on: August 08, 2019, 12:43:36 PM »
« Edited: August 08, 2019, 12:47:38 PM by beesley »

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=1132



Since Kyle Hutton did one, and I had some time, here's mine for today.

I have

160 for the Liberals with 92 safe, 31 likely, 21 leaning and 16 tilting
141 for the Conservatives with 88 safe, 26 likely, 18 leaning and 9 tilting
15 for the New Democrats with 4 safe, 6 likely, 2 leaning and 3 tilting
16 for the Bloc Quebecois with 5 safe, 5 likely, 4 leaning and 2 tilting
6 for the Greens with 4 safe, 1 leaning and 1 tilting.
None for the PPC, Christian Heritage, Wilson-Raybould, Philpott, or anyone else.
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mileslunn
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #640 on: August 08, 2019, 12:56:11 PM »
« Edited: August 08, 2019, 01:52:21 PM by mileslunn »

MQO reserach is doing polls for each province in Atlantic Canada.  In Newfoundland, Liberals are ahead, but the shift since 2015 is pretty massive, mind you Liberal numbers there were so high reversion to the mean was probably expected.

Liberal 46%
Conservative 38%
NDP 11%
Green 2%
PPC 2%
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DL
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« Reply #641 on: August 08, 2019, 01:26:58 PM »

MQO reserach is doing polls for each province in Atlantic Canada.  In Newfoundland, Liberals are ahead, but the shift since 2015 is pretty massive, mind you Liberal numbers there were so high reversion to the mean was probably expected.

Liberal 46%
Conservative 38%
NDP 11%
Green 2%
PPC 2%

Regardless of what any poll says - the NDP is almost certain to pick up St. John's East where they are running Jack Harris. He will win on the strength of his personal brand
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beesley
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #642 on: August 08, 2019, 01:36:33 PM »

MQO reserach is doing polls for each province in Atlantic Canada.  In Newfoundland, Liberals are ahead, but the shift since 2015 is pretty massive, mind you Liberal numbers there were so high reversion to the mean was probably expected.

Liberal 46%
Conservative 38%
NDP 11%
Green 2%
PPC 2%

Regardless of what any poll says - the NDP is almost certain to pick up St. John's East where they are running Jack Harris. He will win on the strength of his personal brand

Could well be the only pickup for the NDP anywhere.
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mileslunn
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #643 on: August 08, 2019, 01:53:42 PM »

The one good news for Trudeau is on best PM, he is at 48%, while Scheer only 30% and that has sort of been the trend as while Scheer was competitive on best PM earlier this year, as people get to know him, the response largely seems to be negative. Off course that could change in the campaign.  Both Hudak in 2014 and Harper in 2006 started with similar numbers, while Hudak just re-enforced the negative image thus his poor showing while Harper improved it dramatically thus won.
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Poirot
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« Reply #644 on: August 08, 2019, 04:14:29 PM »

Internal polling at this stage needs to be taken with a grain of salt the size of Canada...

Indeed.

Boulerice is the only Dipper who I see winning in Quebec. Don't give me any of the Brosseau/Caron/Dusseault strong incumbent stuff. That won't save them now (although obviously if Boulerice wasn't a strong incumbent, it could easily be 0)

And with that in mind, I still feel there might be a particularly sharp "Montreal vs ROQ" divide re what's left of NDP support; so even in open seats like Hochelaga and LSM, the Dippers could be poised to far outpoll Brosseau, or just generally hold their base better.  In the midst of urban cosmopolitanism, they're not as hung up about turbans.

Forum has a Quebec poll big enough to have regional segmentation. NDP is at 9% (it has Lib 30%, Conservative 28%, Bloc 15%, Green 10%). By region, NDP has 13% in Montreal, and 7% in Quebec City and Rest of Québec. It does better among non-francophones.

The correlation with the Québec Solidaire vote doesn't look strong enough for the NDP to have a chance to win the corresponding seats.  By provincial vote QS voters (sample is small with just over a hundred vote) go Lib 28%, NDP 24%, Green 22%, Conservative  12%, Bloc 7%.

Abacus had also a twitter post at the end of July of federal vote by 2018 Quebec vote. I imagine the sample was small but it was 35% Liberal, 27% NDP, 22% Conservative, 12% Green, 1% Bloc. 
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adma
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« Reply #645 on: August 08, 2019, 06:49:28 PM »

  Both Hudak in 2014 and Harper in 2006 started with similar numbers, while Hudak just re-enforced the negative image thus his poor showing while Harper improved it dramatically thus won.

I don't know if Harper improved it dramatically so much as the Paul Martin Liberals' negatives exploded mid-campaign through sponsorship scandal revelations.  (Except, maybe, as regards the CPC's breakthrough in Quebec that year)
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Krago
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« Reply #646 on: August 08, 2019, 07:32:03 PM »

  Both Hudak in 2014 and Harper in 2006 started with similar numbers, while Hudak just re-enforced the negative image thus his poor showing while Harper improved it dramatically thus won.

I don't know if Harper improved it dramatically so much as the Paul Martin Liberals' negatives exploded mid-campaign through sponsorship scandal revelations.  (Except, maybe, as regards the CPC's breakthrough in Quebec that year)

Soldiers with guns. In our cities. In Canada.

https://youtu.be/uMsqEph7a8I
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mileslunn
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #647 on: August 08, 2019, 09:22:16 PM »

  Both Hudak in 2014 and Harper in 2006 started with similar numbers, while Hudak just re-enforced the negative image thus his poor showing while Harper improved it dramatically thus won.

I don't know if Harper improved it dramatically so much as the Paul Martin Liberals' negatives exploded mid-campaign through sponsorship scandal revelations.  (Except, maybe, as regards the CPC's breakthrough in Quebec that year)

Actually Harper was damaged fairly badly by bozo eruptions and hidden agenda in 2004 so he started with fairly negative numbers.  His 5 promises in many ways helped him as well as the Liberals also did almost nothing before Christmas assuming no one would pay attention while Harper was active.  On Nanos poll tracker in December, Liberals maintained lead, but on best PM Harper pulled ahead before his party did.  Off course Martin ran a disastrous campaign too so it was a combination of both.  I think if Liberals won an okay campaign they could have barely held on and Tories likewise if a medicore would have lost.
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gottsu
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« Reply #648 on: August 09, 2019, 06:18:22 AM »

I don't think Scheer would be a good PM, I simply don't see him in that role, he lacks gravitas to me. Justin isn't better by a large margin, but he has good PR at least. Stephen Harper, the last Conservative PM was dignified, proud and strong to me, while Scheer is not.
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adma
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« Reply #649 on: August 09, 2019, 06:49:40 AM »

  Both Hudak in 2014 and Harper in 2006 started with similar numbers, while Hudak just re-enforced the negative image thus his poor showing while Harper improved it dramatically thus won.

I don't know if Harper improved it dramatically so much as the Paul Martin Liberals' negatives exploded mid-campaign through sponsorship scandal revelations.  (Except, maybe, as regards the CPC's breakthrough in Quebec that year)

Actually Harper was damaged fairly badly by bozo eruptions and hidden agenda in 2004 so he started with fairly negative numbers.  His 5 promises in many ways helped him as well as the Liberals also did almost nothing before Christmas assuming no one would pay attention while Harper was active.  On Nanos poll tracker in December, Liberals maintained lead, but on best PM Harper pulled ahead before his party did.  Off course Martin ran a disastrous campaign too so it was a combination of both.  I think if Liberals won an okay campaign they could have barely held on and Tories likewise if a medicore would have lost.

But "hidden agenda" matters still dogged Harper in '06, to the point where it continued to hold back gains in places like the GTA--at that point, national support for the Cons was more "probationary" than anything.
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