Canadian Election 2019

[Hatman 🍁]

Fordnation support is like Trump's, there is an absolute floor, and nothing he does or says will drop that support below that number. There is a reason why he's not the least popular premier in the country (only second least!).

[DL]

Fordnation support is like Trump's, there is an absolute floor, and nothing he does or says will drop that support below that number. There is a reason why he's not the least popular premier in the country (only second least!).

Yes, there is a floor, but it is lower than you think with some polls showing his approval rating as low as 20%

[Hatman 🍁]

Fordnation support is like Trump's, there is an absolute floor, and nothing he does or says will drop that support below that number. There is a reason why he's not the least popular premier in the country (only second least!).

Yes, there is a floor, but it is lower than you think with some polls showing his approval rating as low as 20%

Well, he's not his brother, whose approvals were in the 30s when he was mayor.

[mileslunn]

Fordnation support is like Trump's, there is an absolute floor, and nothing he does or says will drop that support below that number. There is a reason why he's not the least popular premier in the country (only second least!).

Yes, there is a floor, but it is lower than you think with some polls showing his approval rating as low as 20%

Yeah and approval in low 20s is pretty disastrous.  Only reason second least popular is McNeil's are in the teens but Ford's approval ratings are low enough basically Scheer needs to hope Ford doesn't feature too prominently in the election or he is toast while Trudeau needs to hope Ford does play a promote role as that is his ticket to a second term.

[mileslunn]

Fordnation support is like Trump's, there is an absolute floor, and nothing he does or says will drop that support below that number. There is a reason why he's not the least popular premier in the country (only second least!).

Yes, there is a floor, but it is lower than you think with some polls showing his approval rating as low as 20%

Well, he's not his brother, whose approvals were in the 30s when he was mayor.

His brother had more personal problems than he does, but had a certain level of likeability Doug Ford lacks and also his brother was good at responding to constituency concerns whereas Doug mostly just rides of his coattails.  Also the kind of austerity Ford is introducing provincially would be tough to do municipally as you don't have political parties municipally so cannot whip votes thus much tougher to adopt policies as unpopular.  Nonetheless I think its a combination of cuts and his personality causing low approval ratings.  Even without cuts his approval rating would likely be in only the 30s and likewise if it were someone more likeable doing the cuts, their approval rating would be negative for sure, but not quite as bad.

[beesley]

Another riding poll, this time in Whitby, ON. An open liberal seat (technically indy) won by 3% last time.

CPC 38
Lib 35
Green 8
NDP 4
PPC 3
Undecided 12

[mileslunn]

Another riding poll, this time in Whitby, ON. An open liberal seat (technically indy) won by 3% last time.

CPC 38
Lib 35
Green 8
NDP 4
PPC 3
Undecided 12

Looking at Mainstreet's two polls which are Niagara Centre and Whitby, my thoughts are as follows off course considering their history of riding polling is not great.

Liberals: Good numbers and if they can hold those will likely be re-elected, question is just do they win another majority or only minority.

Tories: Not ideal for forming government, but not terrible either as a 5 point jump would be enough to a minimum give a strong minority or even majority.  After all Doug Ford last year got 5 and 7% better in those ridings respectively.

NDP: Disastrous numbers although Niagara Centre is only one they've ever won, Whitby unlike Oshawa is not one I would expect them to win, even in a good election.  Still Liberals will hope the NDP stays where they are whereas Tories probably hope they rebound a bit.

Just for comparisons of past elections:

For Niagara Centre, Liberals haven't gotten as high as 43% since 2000 and haven't provincially for at least 40 years.  In Whitby, 39% is below what they got last time, 2004, and only 1% above what they got in 2006 when they lost, mind you that was at the height of the sponsorship scandal so even if English Canada votes same way as in 2006, Liberals will win due to much better showing in Quebec.  It's also well above what they got in 2008, 2011 and recent provincial elections

For Tories, 30% for Niagara Centre is actually not that bad.  Well below the 39% they got in 2011 and below Ford's 37%, but only 2% below what they got in 2008 which was a strong minority, and 1% above what they got in both 2015 and 2006.  In Whitby, 41% is slightly below 2015 at 42%, but also only 2% below what they got in 2006, but 9% below 2008 and 18% below 2011.  Provincially also only 5% less than they got last year thus if they stay there don't form government, but jump 5%, they win big in Ontario and likely form government thus why a 5% swing in Ontario makes a huge difference in seats whereas in Alberta wouldn't matter much.  I also think when Jim Flaherty and Christine Elliott were running, you have to consider personal appeal as I suspect both got some personal votes and with a generic Tory candidate probably would have not done quite as well.

[Poirot]

The July Mainstreet national poll has the NDP at 10% (11.5% in Ontario). If Mainstreet's riding polls are coherent with those numbers, I expect they will never be kind to the NDP.

[adma]

Re the Cons: remember, of course, that NC is basically an Obama/Trump type of riding, so at this point it's not *too* surprising if they've absorbed a bit of the "populist" end of NDP support.

And re the NDP in Whitby: remember that the *provincial* party somewhat surprisingly came within 10 points of winning last year.

Libs: to be only barely behind in Whitby after everything *is* a good sign for them.  And in the end, I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes a "stealth retain" for the Libs...

[mileslunn]

Ekos has some interesting #'s out.  Quite a shift, especially in Ontario for one week, but could be statistical noise.  It is summer and I've found in summer polls tend to be a little over the map, probably due to lower response rate as many are on vacation.

Nationally

Decided Federal vote intention

Weighted Total:992
Total:995
Liberal Party30.6%

Conservative Party36.0%

New Democratic Party9.9%

Green Party12.9%

People's Party3.8%

Bloc Quebecois4.6%

Another party not listed here2.2%

Ontario

390
402
33.8% LPC
+
35.8%CPC

9.5% NDP

13.2% GP 

4.5% PPC
----
3.2% Other
+

4.89

Quebec

232
156
36.7%LPC
++
24.3%CPC
----
6.9%NDP

10.2%GP

2.1%PPC

19.7% BQ
++++
0.0%
--

7.85 MOE

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Who will succeed Singh?

Sven Robinson is outspoken and probably could get media attention and visibility.

Excellent idea, if the idea is to actually kill off the NDP for real this time.

[adma]

Who will succeed Singh?

Sven Robinson is outspoken and probably could get media attention and visibility.

Excellent idea, if the idea is to actually kill off the NDP for real this time.

Not that it's *good* or anything, but I suppose one can *very* inexactly compare him to Corbyn (i.e. hard-left senior citizen figurehead)

[136or142]

Lenore Zann won the Liberal nomination.

[Hatman 🍁]

Svend Robinson won't win his seat, so it's a moot point. If the NDP does indeed have a bad election, the leader in waiting will be Charlie Angus, assuming he wins his seat. The NDP won't have very many (if any) seats left in Quebec, so there'll be less importance on having a leader who is completely fluent in French. Of course, if anyone does survive in Quebec (Boulerice? Brousseau?), there'll will be immediate front runners as well.

[mileslunn]

Svend Robinson won't win his seat, so it's a moot point. If the NDP does indeed have a bad election, the leader in waiting will be Charlie Angus, assuming he wins his seat. The NDP won't have very many (if any) seats left in Quebec, so there'll be less importance on having a leader who is completely fluent in French. Of course, if anyone does survive in Quebec (Boulerice? Brousseau?), there'll will be immediate front runners as well.

Exactly although Robinson running probably improves chances of Tories winning it due to stronger splits on the progressive side, but still would give Liberals edge.  He is from Burnaby and when he was MP his riding was only on the Burnaby side, didn't include North Shore which outside Lonsdale area is hostile territory for NDP and always goes Liberal or Conservative.  For starters if this riding existed provincially, the BC Liberals would have won it in 2017 and I cannot see NDP winning anything in BC that would have gone BC Liberals provincially.

[mileslunn]

Forum is out with a July poll and while last year's numbers were suspect, these seem more in line with others.

CPC 34%
Lib 31%
GPC 12%
NDP 12%
PPC5%
BQ 5%

On regionals, Tories have big lead in Alberta, Liberals ahead in Quebec by 11 points, Liberals lead by 5 in Ontario, by four in Atlantic Canada, while Tories ahead in BC thanks to strong splits on left.  Interesting tidbit is leadership approval ratings.

Trudeau is 34% approve vs. 55% disapprove so normally leaders with these numbers lose.  But Scheer's are no better at 27% approve and 48% disapprove thus its really about who do you dislike less not who do you like more.  Elizabeth May once again only one with positive approval ratings.

Nanos has an interactive map like Forum based on a sample of 73,000 since April

https://www.nanos.co/nanostimemap/

It shows seat wise, Tories have 103 seats they are ahead by over 7 points, Liberals 109 seats, NDP 11 seats, BQ 5 seats, Greens 3 seats, while 28 seats are within 2 points and 79 seats within 2-7 points.  One interesting thing is they show Liberals leading in Prince George-Peace River-Northern Rockies which considering history of the riding and general trends I find that hard to believe.  Sure Bob Zimmer is a bit nutty, he is the guy who wants to make the weapon most often used in mass shootings, AR15 non-restricted, but I doubt many pay too much attention to that.  Atlantic Canada interesting as New Brunswick largely painted blue, while Nova Scotia solidly red even rural areas.

EDIT: the Map is from April so a bit dated but at least a good starting point.  If you are willing to pay over a $1,000 you can get a detailed one, but I just subscribed to the weekly numbers.  Note you can still get party power, best PM, approval, and vote consider for free and those are often good indicators in themselves.

[RogueBeaver]

Luc Fortin revealed some Tory internals on local radio today. Grits lead in 3 Dipper QC ridings unsurprisingly, but specifically, REB is at 9% in Berthier-Maskinongé, Grits lead a 4-way race in Jonquière and bigly in Longueil-Saint Hubert, with Nantel at 5%.

[mileslunn]

Luc Fortin revealed some Tory internals on local radio today. Grits lead in 3 Dipper QC ridings unsurprisingly, but specifically, REB is at 9% in Berthier-Maskinongé, Grits lead a 4-way race in Jonquière and bigly in Longueil-Saint Hubert, with Nantel at 5%.

What were Tory and BQ numbers like in those ridings?  Yes surprising how low  REB is mind you this area went solidly CAQ provincially so not exactly favourable NDP terrain.  Their best hopes are in areas QS did well.

[Poirot]

I listened to two of his radio interviews and wrote down numbers he gave. Don't know if numbers for all parties are published somehwre.

Longueuil-Saint-Hubert

1- Lib 40.4
2- BQ 28.6
3- Con ?
4. Green ?
5- NDP 6.4

Undecided 18% (party numbers seem to be excluding undecided)


Berthier-Maskinongé

1- Lib 30.5
2- Con 27.6
3- BQ 22.6
4- NPD 9.32

People party near 5%. 26% undecided

Jonquière

1- Lib 28.7
2- Con 24
3- NPD 21.5
4- BQ 21

No clue on the sample size or margin of error. He said it was fairly recent. I don't know if Conservatives have their own polling or could use Mainstreet. Luc Fortin is associated with Mainstreet and that firm loves reporting decimals.   

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

What do you think is causing this weird sudden Conservative surge the last week or so? It seemed like the Liberals were slowly gaining for the last 4-5 weeks or so, as the SNC Lavalin scandal faded from memory. Is it a polling error due to people being away on vacation?

[Hatman 🍁]

Surprised to see the NDP doing (comparatively) well in Jonquiere, but absolutely tanking in REB's riding.

[Philly D.]

Internal polling at this stage needs to be taken with a grain of salt the size of Canada...

[beesley]

Internal polling at this stage needs to be taken with a grain of salt the size of Canada...

Indeed.

Boulerice is the only Dipper who I see winning in Quebec. Don't give me any of the Brosseau/Caron/Dusseault strong incumbent stuff. That won't save them now (although obviously if Boulerice wasn't a strong incumbent, it could easily be 0)

[adma]

Internal polling at this stage needs to be taken with a grain of salt the size of Canada...

Indeed.

Boulerice is the only Dipper who I see winning in Quebec. Don't give me any of the Brosseau/Caron/Dusseault strong incumbent stuff. That won't save them now (although obviously if Boulerice wasn't a strong incumbent, it could easily be 0)

And with that in mind, I still feel there might be a particularly sharp "Montreal vs ROQ" divide re what's left of NDP support; so even in open seats like Hochelaga and LSM, the Dippers could be poised to far outpoll Brosseau, or just generally hold their base better.  In the midst of urban cosmopolitanism, they're not as hung up about turbans.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/fordnation/status/1157681059376578563