Canadian Election 2019
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Author Topic: Canadian Election 2019  (Read 189146 times)
Poirot
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« Reply #50 on: December 25, 2018, 04:20:19 PM »

Abacus federal poll

LPC 35%
CPC 34%
NDP 17%
Green 7%
Bloc 4%

This firm measured accessible voter pools. 53% would consider voting Liberal, 48% Conservative and 43% NDP, 36% Green and 18% for People's Party.

In BC the accessible voter pool is 54% Liberal, 48% Conservative, 47% NDP
Ontario 59% Liberal, 52% Conservative, 52% NDP
Quebec 50% Liberal, 37% NDP, 33% Conservative, 29% Bloc

They also show to which party voters would go if they changed thir mind.
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http://abacusdata.ca/canadas-political-mood-as-2018-comes-to-an-end/
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Thomas D
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« Reply #51 on: January 05, 2019, 11:13:23 AM »

About how many points would all of you say the LPC has to win by to keep their Majority?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #52 on: January 05, 2019, 05:59:22 PM »

About how many points would all of you say the LPC has to win by to keep their Majority?

I would say with current regional breakdowns Liberals need a 3 to 4 point lead so actually only a few points more to retain their majority.  Tories need about a 10 point lead so still a long ways from a majority.  In fact I figure the Tories need a 2 point lead in the polls just to beat the Liberals in seats.  The reason for this is voter efficiency.  Tories have the same problem Hillary Clinton had, win big in areas they are already strong in so lots of wasted votes (that would be Alberta and Saskatchewan) while Liberals win in a lot more areas but where they win it tends to be by much narrower margins.  The Liberals will likely get below 20% and 10% in far more ridings than the Tories so fewer wasted in votes in no hope areas, while unlike 2015, I suspect there will be few Liberal ridings over 60% and few or any of 70% and probably none over 80% while with the anger at the Liberals in Alberta and Saskatchewan, I think you will see a lot of over 60%, over 70% and even a few over 80% for the Tories.  Rural Alberta is the Tories' strongest area and there is no place where the Liberals are likely to win as big. 
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adma
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« Reply #53 on: January 05, 2019, 06:43:56 PM »

It also depends on the opposition--that is, if worst case scenarios re Jagmeet Singh's NDP leadership come to pass, we could conceivably see the most "binary" Canadian election in eons, not unlike the 2017 UK election.  In which case, even a modest share difference might not stand in the way of a majority in either direction...
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #54 on: January 05, 2019, 06:47:53 PM »

About how many points would all of you say the LPC has to win by to keep their Majority?

I would say with current regional breakdowns Liberals need a 3 to 4 point lead so actually only a few points more to retain their majority.  Tories need about a 10 point lead so still a long ways from a majority.  In fact I figure the Tories need a 2 point lead in the polls just to beat the Liberals in seats.  The reason for this is voter efficiency.  Tories have the same problem Hillary Clinton had, win big in areas they are already strong in so lots of wasted votes (that would be Alberta and Saskatchewan) while Liberals win in a lot more areas but where they win it tends to be by much narrower margins.  The Liberals will likely get below 20% and 10% in far more ridings than the Tories so fewer wasted in votes in no hope areas, while unlike 2015, I suspect there will be few Liberal ridings over 60% and few or any of 70% and probably none over 80% while with the anger at the Liberals in Alberta and Saskatchewan, I think you will see a lot of over 60%, over 70% and even a few over 80% for the Tories.  Rural Alberta is the Tories' strongest area and there is no place where the Liberals are likely to win as big.  

Depends how totally the NDP collapses. A lot of the Liberals' vote efficiency is because there are a number of seats where they would have enormous margins in a straight LPC-CPC fight but the LPC numbers are brought down by sizeable NDP votes. If the NDP does really poorly (<10 seats) at the next election, which doesn't seem implausible, the Liberals probably don't have a vote concentration advantage because they'll be approaching 70%+ in a lot of urban ridings.
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adma
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« Reply #55 on: January 06, 2019, 03:34:57 PM »

Depends how totally the NDP collapses. A lot of the Liberals' vote efficiency is because there are a number of seats where they would have enormous margins in a straight LPC-CPC fight but the LPC numbers are brought down by sizeable NDP votes. If the NDP does really poorly (<10 seats) at the next election, which doesn't seem implausible, the Liberals probably don't have a vote concentration advantage because they'll be approaching 70%+ in a lot of urban ridings.

Let's remember that the Libs were disadvantaged in 1979 because *they* had the overly-plumped-vote circumstance--Quebec was for them then what Alberta/Prairies is for CPC presently.

A lot, too, might depend on whether Bernier's PPC has any discernable ballot-box traction, whether as winner or as spoiler...
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mileslunn
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« Reply #56 on: January 06, 2019, 06:50:35 PM »

Depends how totally the NDP collapses. A lot of the Liberals' vote efficiency is because there are a number of seats where they would have enormous margins in a straight LPC-CPC fight but the LPC numbers are brought down by sizeable NDP votes. If the NDP does really poorly (<10 seats) at the next election, which doesn't seem implausible, the Liberals probably don't have a vote concentration advantage because they'll be approaching 70%+ in a lot of urban ridings.

Let's remember that the Libs were disadvantaged in 1979 because *they* had the overly-plumped-vote circumstance--Quebec was for them then what Alberta/Prairies is for CPC presently.

A lot, too, might depend on whether Bernier's PPC has any discernable ballot-box traction, whether as winner or as spoiler...


Ironically it is Alberta not Quebec where Bernier is most popular so if he does gain any traction, probably will be mostly in Conservative strongholds thus reducing their margins but not costing them the seats so more vote efficient.  That being said unless he somehow gets into the debates, I suspect his party will go nowhere.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #57 on: January 06, 2019, 07:25:52 PM »

Depends how totally the NDP collapses. A lot of the Liberals' vote efficiency is because there are a number of seats where they would have enormous margins in a straight LPC-CPC fight but the LPC numbers are brought down by sizeable NDP votes. If the NDP does really poorly (<10 seats) at the next election, which doesn't seem implausible, the Liberals probably don't have a vote concentration advantage because they'll be approaching 70%+ in a lot of urban ridings.

Let's remember that the Libs were disadvantaged in 1979 because *they* had the overly-plumped-vote circumstance--Quebec was for them then what Alberta/Prairies is for CPC presently.

A lot, too, might depend on whether Bernier's PPC has any discernable ballot-box traction, whether as winner or as spoiler...


Ironically it is Alberta not Quebec where Bernier is most popular so if he does gain any traction, probably will be mostly in Conservative strongholds thus reducing their margins but not costing them the seats so more vote efficient.  That being said unless he somehow gets into the debates, I suspect his party will go nowhere.

If Bernier's party gets back their deposit anywhere besides Beauce, Yellowhead and Calgary Heritage wouldn't be the worst places to do it.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #58 on: January 06, 2019, 08:28:00 PM »

Will Bernier win his own seat to begin with? Also, how much do you need to get back a deposit in Canada?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #59 on: January 06, 2019, 09:23:38 PM »

Will Bernier win his own seat to begin with? Also, how much do you need to get back a deposit in Canada?

Deposits were abolished by a judge in 2017.
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Jeppe
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« Reply #60 on: January 06, 2019, 11:21:18 PM »

Will Bernier win his own seat to begin with? Also, how much do you need to get back a deposit in Canada?

Mainstreet found a tight race between Bernier and the new CPC candidate, who seems to be a star recruit in his own right.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #61 on: January 07, 2019, 01:20:18 AM »

Will Bernier win his own seat to begin with? Also, how much do you need to get back a deposit in Canada?

To get deposit back is 10% and outside his own riding and rural Alberta I suspect there will be few of those.  He will probably lose his own riding the question is to whom.  Will it go Tory as it is a fairly conservative area or will the splits be strong enough to allow the Liberals to come up the middle, hard to say.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #62 on: January 07, 2019, 05:37:05 AM »

Will Bernier win his own seat to begin with? Also, how much do you need to get back a deposit in Canada?

To get deposit back is 10% and outside his own riding and rural Alberta I suspect there will be few of those.  He will probably lose his own riding the question is to whom.  Will it go Tory as it is a fairly conservative area or will the splits be strong enough to allow the Liberals to come up the middle, hard to say.

Jeppe just posted about that Mainstreet poll. Bernier and the Tories are tied at about 35% in Beauce. Everyone else is around 10%
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UWS
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« Reply #63 on: January 07, 2019, 08:56:12 AM »

Will Bernier win his own seat to begin with? Also, how much do you need to get back a deposit in Canada?

To get deposit back is 10% and outside his own riding and rural Alberta I suspect there will be few of those.  He will probably lose his own riding the question is to whom.  Will it go Tory as it is a fairly conservative area or will the splits be strong enough to allow the Liberals to come up the middle, hard to say.

Jeppe just posted about that Mainstreet poll. Bernier and the Tories are tied at about 35% in Beauce. Everyone else is around 10%

If the PLC took 22 % of the vote in Beauce in the last election, maybe Beauce could be winnable for Trudeau.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #64 on: January 08, 2019, 10:14:26 AM »

Will Bernier win his own seat to begin with? Also, how much do you need to get back a deposit in Canada?

To get deposit back is 10% and outside his own riding and rural Alberta I suspect there will be few of those.  He will probably lose his own riding the question is to whom.  Will it go Tory as it is a fairly conservative area or will the splits be strong enough to allow the Liberals to come up the middle, hard to say.

Jeppe just posted about that Mainstreet poll. Bernier and the Tories are tied at about 35% in Beauce. Everyone else is around 10%

If the PLC took 22 % of the vote in Beauce in the last election, maybe Beauce could be winnable for Trudeau.

I'm pretty skeptical on that.

The Liberals are more or less matching their 2015 Quebec result. If we re ran the 2015 election and split the 2015 Tory vote equally in two, the Liberal candidate would still be down by 7%. The Tories are actually up in Quebec as well. The only way the Liberals win this seat is the Tory/People's vote spluts perfectly and there's a substanstial trend towards Trudeau in rural Quebec. That riding poll indicates that if there's a trend, it's in the wrong direction for the Grits.
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PSOL
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« Reply #65 on: January 08, 2019, 04:13:09 PM »

Since a few natives got arrested last night for protesting, I’m curious to see how they vote. Is it split between NDP and the Liberals? Will the recent pipeline controversy lead to a changing voting pattern?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #66 on: January 08, 2019, 04:34:33 PM »

Since a few natives got arrested last night for protesting, I’m curious to see how they vote. Is it split between NDP and the Liberals? Will the recent pipeline controversy lead to a changing voting pattern?

It depends on which band/tribe but usually I find they tend to vote massively behind one, rarely split within any band/tribe but is split overall as one band might go massively NDP another massively Liberal.  Add to the fact turnout amongst First Nations tends to be very low in fact many deliberately refuse to vote as they feel it legitimizes being colonized.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #67 on: January 08, 2019, 09:20:02 PM »

Since a few natives got arrested last night for protesting, I’m curious to see how they vote. Is it split between NDP and the Liberals? Will the recent pipeline controversy lead to a changing voting pattern?

To add to what Miles said, there's a weird southernesque racial voting pattern in northern Mantoba and Sasketchewan.

If you look at poll maps for thos ridings on

http://www.election-atlas.ca

In those areas the white areas will vote 80%+ or the Tories, and the reservations will vote NDP/Liberal by similar margins.
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adma
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« Reply #68 on: January 09, 2019, 07:21:49 PM »

To add to what Miles said, there's a weird southernesque racial voting pattern in northern Mantoba and Sasketchewan.

If you look at poll maps for thos ridings on

http://www.election-atlas.ca

In those areas the white areas will vote 80%+ or the Tories, and the reservations will vote NDP/Liberal by similar margins.

That even goes for southern ManSask ridings: other than major urban centres, the patches of non-blue tend to be reserves.  (Or to a limited extent and depending on the election and place, Metis.)
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mileslunn
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« Reply #69 on: January 10, 2019, 12:13:00 PM »

Scott Brison is not running for re-election.  Since this was a Tory stronghold before he crossed the floor, this would normally make this a target for the Tories, but with how badly they were damaged in 2015, I suspect the Liberals should be able to hold this even if not quite the same blowout as in 2015.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #70 on: January 10, 2019, 12:28:43 PM »

Scott Brison is not running for re-election.  Since this was a Tory stronghold before he crossed the floor, this would normally make this a target for the Tories, but with how badly they were damaged in 2015, I suspect the Liberals should be able to hold this even if not quite the same blowout as in 2015.

Preface: I still think the Liberals win Kings-Hants rather comfortably.

The Tories have recovered quite a bit in Atlantic Canada, and rural Anglo ridings are the sort of place where I would expect the recovery to disproportionately occur. Also, local politics matter a lot more out east, so Brison's departure will hurt the Liberals more than a typical popular cabinet retirement. The Tories could scrape out a victory if everything goes right.

My actual prediction for a surprise Tory win is Cumberland-Colchester.
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adma
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« Reply #71 on: January 10, 2019, 07:52:51 PM »

Scott Brison is not running for re-election.  Since this was a Tory stronghold before he crossed the floor, this would normally make this a target for the Tories, but with how badly they were damaged in 2015, I suspect the Liberals should be able to hold this even if not quite the same blowout as in 2015.

Preface: I still think the Liberals win Kings-Hants rather comfortably.

The Tories have recovered quite a bit in Atlantic Canada, and rural Anglo ridings are the sort of place where I would expect the recovery to disproportionately occur. Also, local politics matter a lot more out east, so Brison's departure will hurt the Liberals more than a typical popular cabinet retirement. The Tories could scrape out a victory if everything goes right.

My actual prediction for a surprise Tory win is Cumberland-Colchester.

I wouldn't call it that much of a "surprise"; Bill Casey's about the only thing in the way of its becoming the likeliest Tory pickup in Nova Scotia--probably because it's the least "Celtic fringe" of NS's rural-based seats (i.e. more of a synergy w/Anglo New Brunswick)
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #72 on: January 22, 2019, 08:50:43 AM »

Candidate update:

The Tories are running several former MP's in Atlantic Canada: Scott Armstrong (Cumberland-Colchester),  Rob Moore (Fundy-Royal), and John Williamson (New Brunswick Southwest). All three have a decent chance at reclaiming their seats.

They have also have a possible star candidate; Chris d'Entremont in West Nova. d'Entremont is the Tory MLA for Argyle-Barrington and is a former cabinet minister. West Nova should still go Liberal but d'Entremont could make it interesting.

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MaxQue
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« Reply #73 on: January 22, 2019, 09:17:44 AM »

Also, for Conservatives, they have Robert Coutu, mayor of Montréal-Est in La-Pointe-de-l'Île running against former Bloc leader Mario Beaulieu.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #74 on: January 22, 2019, 09:32:04 AM »

Candidate update:

The Tories are running several former MP's in Atlantic Canada: Scott Armstrong (Cumberland-Colchester),  Rob Moore (Fundy-Royal), and John Williamson (New Brunswick Southwest). All three have a decent chance at reclaiming their seats.

They have also have a possible star candidate; Chris d'Entremont in West Nova. d'Entremont is the Tory MLA for Argyle-Barrington and is a former cabinet minister. West Nova should still go Liberal but d'Entremont could make it interesting.


Interesting, so is the NDP:

Andrew Cash in Davenport (defeated in 2015, a good fighting chance, still lean-LPC, but that's a strong candidate for the NDP)

Svend Robinson in Burnaby North-Seymour (did not run again in 2004, a good chance as well in a three way race)

I expect some of the class of 2011, who were defeated in 2015 in Quebec might run again as well
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