Canadian Election 2019

[King of Kensington]

Scheer's response is too opportunistic, Singh has shined in the past few days.  He looks like a serious player, rather than desperately fighting with the Greens for third place.

[King of Kensington]

South Asian and Black Canadians are (were?) probably the loyalest Trudeau demographics in the country. 

[super6646]

Scheer's response is too opportunistic, Singh has shined in the past few days.  He looks like a serious player, rather than desperately fighting with the Greens for third place.

Singh capturing the spotlight is good for Scheer as well though. If Singh can siphon some of the Lib vote, it may give the Cons enough of a push in Ontario to drive them to victory.

[King of Kensington]

True, Scheer gains by subtraction from the Liberal tally.

[libertpaulian]

I can't wait for the post-Facegate polling.

[toaster]

It really is something seeing SJW types defending Trudeau.  You now are left with a choice of two white straight men who have said/done homophobic/racist things, and you have a woman and a racialized man who have not, yet you are still supporting the white straight men. This is the argument they would be making if it was anyone but Trudeau, but for some reason it doesn't apply for him.  I thought initially that slogan from there Conservative's was just a dumb slogan, but I'm buying into it now.  It kind of is true.  Anyway, I'll probably vote Green now.  I think it's a free for all on the progressive side.

[cp]

I can't wait for the post-Facegate polling.

Rather early, and just a daily tracking poll, but still

Libs: 36.8
Cons: 34.2
NDP: 10.1
Green: 9.8
Bloc: 4.7

Changes from the previous poll were all under 0.5 in every case.

[Diouf]

Now that the Woke King has been caught in a blackface, one can only similarly hope that the biggest betrayer of fair electoral systems in history will lose thanks to an unfair electoral system.

[Walmart_shopper]

I can't wait for the post-Facegate polling.

Rather early, and just a daily tracking poll, but still

Libs: 36.8
Cons: 34.2
NDP: 10.1
Green: 9.8
Bloc: 4.7

Changes from the previous poll were all under 0.5 in every case.

Nanos was virtually unchanged, too. Liberals dropped less than a point and the Greens and NDP gained no more than a point (the Conservatives had a tiny drop in support). Those aren't even obvious enough changes to be anything other than statistical noise.

The problem for the (mostly NDP and Conservative) cheerleaders of the longevity and gravity of the blackface scandal is that nobody has an argument for why it would hurt the Liberals. There are principally two groups digging into this with glee. First, those who resent the Woke King's wokeness and hope this will temper his SJW credibility. These people are Conservative voters, anyway. The other group is the (white, western provincial, progressive) people watching the Singh video with tears rolling down their faces. These people are NDP voters. But none of this actually moves the needle away from the liberals. What Grit voter sees Trudeau acting insensitively on camera suddenly decides that, no, I am so woke that I want to punish Trudeau by voting for or helping elect the people who represent and legislate everything contrary to my political and social values? Where this could hurt the Liberals is among marginal Harper-Trudeau voters who have had enough already. But these are likely Scheer supporters already.

[cp]

I think that's a good analysis. The blackface story isn't an issue that has a lot of swaying power, at least on its own. If it comes to light that Trudeau had said or done (previously unrevealed) things that were similarly racist/sexist/homophobic/etc., especially if they were more recent than 20 years ago, then it will create a much more plausible narrative about Trudeau's hypocrisy, insincerity, and judgment. However, unless those things happen the blackface story is much easier to interpret as a one off event. Consequently, it probably doesn't factor very heavily into the deliberations of voters when they think about who will be best placed to manage the budget, foreign affairs, interprovincial relations, unity, etc. for the next 4 years.

[adma]

Nanos was virtually unchanged, too. Liberals dropped less than a point and the Greens and NDP gained no more than a point (the Conservatives had a tiny drop in support). Those aren't even obvious enough changes to be anything other than statistical noise.

Today's Nanos is showing changes sinking in: Libs from 34.2 to 32.0, Cons from 37.4 to 36.8, NDP from 12.8 to 13.7, Bloc from 3.5 to 5.4 (!), Green from 9.3 to 9.0, PPC stable at 2.4.

So the Libs are definitely showing 2006-election-style damage (how lastingly, who knows), but the Cons aren't really benefiting (though this *could* shift them back into seat advantage), and the NDP's recovering from a downward blip that threatened to herd Nanos with the fourth-place-Dipper pollsters.  But, the Bloc--it'd seem as if the bulk of the damage was in Quebec (though I haven't seen any provincials, not being a Nanos subscriber)

[DC Al Fine]

Nanos was virtually unchanged, too. Liberals dropped less than a point and the Greens and NDP gained no more than a point (the Conservatives had a tiny drop in support). Those aren't even obvious enough changes to be anything other than statistical noise.

Today's Nanos is showing changes sinking in: Libs from 34.2 to 32.0, Cons from 37.4 to 36.8, NDP from 12.8 to 13.7, Bloc from 3.5 to 5.4 (!), Green from 9.3 to 9.0, PPC stable at 2.4.

So the Libs are definitely showing 2006-election-style damage (how lastingly, who knows), but the Cons aren't really benefiting (though this *could* shift them back into seat advantage), and the NDP's recovering from a downward blip that threatened to herd Nanos with the fourth-place-Dipper pollsters.  But, the Bloc--it'd seem as if the bulk of the damage was in Quebec (though I haven't seen any provincials, not being a Nanos subscriber)

To add to what Adma said, Nanos' daily tracking poll is actually a three day rolling sample, so

a) That 2.2% drop day to day is indicative a larger daily drop

b) We still only have a 2/3 of a proper post blackface poll

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/2closetocall/status/1175431097015947264

[ProgressiveCanadian]

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1175379851018158081?s=19

[DL]

I can't wait for the post-Facegate polling.

Rather early, and just a daily tracking poll, but still

Libs: 36.8
Cons: 34.2
NDP: 10.1
Green: 9.8
Bloc: 4.7

Changes from the previous poll were all under 0.5 in every case.

Nanos was virtually unchanged, too. Liberals dropped less than a point and the Greens and NDP gained no more than a point (the Conservatives had a tiny drop in support). Those aren't even obvious enough changes to be anything other than statistical noise.

The problem for the (mostly NDP and Conservative) cheerleaders of the longevity and gravity of the blackface scandal is that nobody has an argument for why it would hurt the Liberals. There are principally two groups digging into this with glee. First, those who resent the Woke King's wokeness and hope this will temper his SJW credibility. These people are Conservative voters, anyway. The other group is the (white, western provincial, progressive) people watching the Singh video with tears rolling down their faces. These people are NDP voters. But none of this actually moves the needle away from the liberals. What Grit voter sees Trudeau acting insensitively on camera suddenly decides that, no, I am so woke that I want to punish Trudeau by voting for or helping elect the people who represent and legislate everything contrary to my political and social values? Where this could hurt the Liberals is among marginal Harper-Trudeau voters who have had enough already. But these are likely Scheer supporters already.

But what you’re missing is that the normal level of NDP support in Canadian elections going back to 1962 is about 17-18%. Lately the NDP was polling way lower than that largely because people kept being told that Singh was an weak leader. One thing everyone agrees on is that Singh has campaigned very well so far and that he hit the ball out of the park with how he handled Trudeau’s minstrel show pictures. A lot of people who usually vote NDP may now start to “come home” to their usual home and you could see the NDP move back to the mid to high teens. Just anecdotally, two weeks ago people I know who vote NDP were doing so despite Singh and no one wanted to talk about him. Now NDP voters are feeling proud of him and he is drawing bigger more enthusiastic crowds. The whole emotion around the NDP campaign has changed 180 degrees

[adma]

But what you’re missing is that the normal level of NDP support in Canadian elections going back to 1962 is about 17-18%. Lately the NDP was polling way lower than that largely because people kept being told that Singh was an weak leader. One thing everyone agrees on is that Singh has campaigned very well so far and that he hit the ball out of the park with how he handled Trudeau’s minstrel show pictures. A lot of people who usually vote NDP may now start to “come home” to their usual home and you could see the NDP move back to the mid to high teens. Just anecdotally, two weeks ago people I know who vote NDP were doing so despite Singh and no one wanted to talk about him. Now NDP voters are feeling proud of him and he is drawing bigger more enthusiastic crowds. The whole emotion around the NDP campaign has changed 180 degrees

But the one thing that *could* (not *will*, but *could*) wind up pushing against that in the end is beyond Singh's control; and that is the impulse to "stop Scheer".  A sort of modern-day Conservative Derangement Syndrome--that is, voters *liking* Jagmeet; but, y'know, we have to stop the forces of Trump and Ford from ruling our country and the only way to do that is to avoid splitting the vote, etc.  So, holding their nose and plumping for the Justinface Libs by default.  Particularly if they start seeing polls showing the Cons holding their 30something base while the Libs and Dippers edge closer together...uh-oh, better not have that.

Then again, the Cons are also trending downward w/Nanos' latest;  that is, *they* didn't get a bump from any of this--but it's not like they're guaranteed to head south of 30 anytime soon, either...

[jaymichaud]

I can't wait for the post-Facegate polling.

Not too much of an impact, it seems. We'll see in a week probably.

[adma]

Even now, you can never discount the power of the "a vote for the NDP is a vote for the Conservatives" forged narrative--even when it came to the giddy heights of the Orange Crush in 2011, that was so easily countered by "yeah, but that was also the year of the HarperCon majority".

In fact, the Liberals could always point to none other than Jagmeet Singh's first federal race as proof of that: that is, he shocked all observers by managing 33.5% and a close second in Bramalea-Gore-Malton in 2011 (where the NDP only got 12% in 2008)--but the Conservatives' Bal Gosal won by less than a point, and 2.7% down from their 2008 share!  (The Liberal incumbent was 3rd with 29.4%.)  So, there you have it: by voting for Jagmeet Singh, you elect a Conservative!  See?

[DC Al Fine]

But what you’re missing is that the normal level of NDP support in Canadian elections going back to 1962 is about 17-18%. Lately the NDP was polling way lower than that largely because people kept being told that Singh was an weak leader. One thing everyone agrees on is that Singh has campaigned very well so far and that he hit the ball out of the park with how he handled Trudeau’s minstrel show pictures. A lot of people who usually vote NDP may now start to “come home” to their usual home and you could see the NDP move back to the mid to high teens. Just anecdotally, two weeks ago people I know who vote NDP were doing so despite Singh and no one wanted to talk about him. Now NDP voters are feeling proud of him and he is drawing bigger more enthusiastic crowds. The whole emotion around the NDP campaign has changed 180 degrees

But the one thing that *could* (not *will*, but *could*) wind up pushing against that in the end is beyond Singh's control; and that is the impulse to "stop Scheer".  A sort of modern-day Conservative Derangement Syndrome--that is, voters *liking* Jagmeet; but, y'know, we have to stop the forces of Trump and Ford from ruling our country and the only way to do that is to avoid splitting the vote, etc.  So, holding their nose and plumping for the Justinface Libs by default.  Particularly if they start seeing polls showing the Cons holding their 30something base while the Libs and Dippers edge closer together...uh-oh, better not have that.

Then again, the Cons are also trending downward w/Nanos' latest;  that is, *they* didn't get a bump from any of this--but it's not like they're guaranteed to head south of 30 anytime soon, either...

Either outcome could hurt the Greens badly. Many (most?) of their supporters have never voted for them before, so I imagine their vote is quite soft. They could jump ship to the NDP because of Singh's response to the scandal or to the Liberals to stop Scheer.

I feel like Green losses due to the blackface scandal are an underrated part of this campaign, especially now that the Greens are getting more scrutiny than they usually do.

[DL]

Yes yes yes, the Liberals always play the strategic voting card to stop the “scary Conservatives”. They have done that in every single election I have been aware of. They played that card in 2004, 2006, 2008, 2011 and 2015. Of course it works with some people but that is a strategy that typically is the difference between the NDP getting 21% of the national popular vote or getting 18%. Usually the NDP floor is about 16% never 10%. And Harper was by any objective standards much “scarier” than Scheer is. To the average voter Scheer is too much of a flaccid nerd to be “scary”. The other thing is that the people who are that terrified of Scheer are mostly a few academics who live in the downtown core. In the other 90% of Canada people just don’t see it that way and there are a lot of people who are pissed off with Trudeau who are asking themselves “should I vote Tory or NDP”.

As much as the Liberals try to demonize Scheer, I just don't think its all that effective. I can't stand the guy myself, but he is NOT some Canadian version of Trump or Boris Johnson. He is also not a federal version of Doug Ford. To me he is sort of a somewhat rightwing version of Joe Clark... Seriously though what exactly would Scheer do that the average swing voter is supposed to find TERRIFYING? is it the pledge to restore the tax credit for children's sports and activities? Is it the pledge to balance the budget 5 years from now (one year faster than the Liberals)? Sure there is a lot of fear mongering about abortion and gay marriage but seriously, does ANYONE think Scheer would pass a law banning same sex marriage or abortion? Harper was PM for 10 years and never touched those issues and he was more of a social conservative personally and attended some evangelical church. The Supreme Court has already rules that equal marriage and abortion rights are protected under the Charter. Keep in mind that even if Scheer won a majority (still very unlikely), all legislation would have to get through the Senate and the Senate is now overwhelmingly composed of "independent" small "l" liberal senators who would vote down almost anything the Tories tried to do. In any case after the publication of the pictures of Trudeau at a minstrel show - the Liberal strategy of dredging up bigoted quotes by Tory candidates form 15 years ago is now DEAD.

Don't get me wrong, I loath Scheer and I really don't want him to win, but I just think that the Liberal attempt to depict him as some sort of existential threat to humanity is just not going to work.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/1175557429595189251

[the506]

Yes yes yes, the Liberals always play the strategic voting card to stop the “scary Conservatives”. They have done that in every single election I have been aware of. They played that card in 2004, 2006, 2008, 2011 and 2015. Of course it works with some people but that is a strategy that typically is the difference between the NDP getting 21% of the national popular vote or getting 18%.

And the hypocritical thing is that Liberal supporters absolutely do not reciprocate when the shoe is on the other foot...see 2011 or Ontario last year.

[the506]

I feel like Green losses due to the blackface scandal are an underrated part of this campaign, especially now that the Greens are getting more scrutiny than they usually do.

I'm not so sure, it may work that way on a national pop-vote level but the Green vote is very highly concentrated in Vancouver Island, NB, PEI and a few random ON/QC ridings. In all but the first, the NDP vote is going to be significantly depressed. I don't think it will hurt Green chances at winning seats in any of them.

[mileslunn]

Yes yes yes, the Liberals always play the strategic voting card to stop the “scary Conservatives”. They have done that in every single election I have been aware of. They played that card in 2004, 2006, 2008, 2011 and 2015. Of course it works with some people but that is a strategy that typically is the difference between the NDP getting 21% of the national popular vote or getting 18%. Usually the NDP floor is about 16% never 10%. And Harper was by any objective standards much “scarier” than Scheer is. To the average voter Scheer is too much of a flaccid nerd to be “scary”. The other thing is that the people who are that terrified of Scheer are mostly a few academics who live in the downtown core. In the other 90% of Canada people just don’t see it that way and there are a lot of people who are pissed off with Trudeau who are asking themselves “should I vote Tory or NDP”.

As much as the Liberals try to demonize Scheer, I just don't think its all that effective. I can't stand the guy myself, but he is NOT some Canadian version of Trump or Boris Johnson. He is also not a federal version of Doug Ford. To me he is sort of a somewhat rightwing version of Joe Clark... Seriously though what exactly would Scheer do that the average swing voter is supposed to find TERRIFYING? is it the pledge to restore the tax credit for children's sports and activities? Is it the pledge to balance the budget 5 years from now (one year faster than the Liberals)? Sure there is a lot of fear mongering about abortion and gay marriage but seriously, does ANYONE think Scheer would pass a law banning same sex marriage or abortion? Harper was PM for 10 years and never touched those issues and he was more of a social conservative personally and attended some evangelical church. The Supreme Court has already rules that equal marriage and abortion rights are protected under the Charter. Keep in mind that even if Scheer won a majority (still very unlikely), all legislation would have to get through the Senate and the Senate is now overwhelmingly composed of "independent" small "l" liberal senators who would vote down almost anything the Tories tried to do. In any case after the publication of the pictures of Trudeau at a minstrel show - the Liberal strategy of dredging up bigoted quotes by Tory candidates form 15 years ago is now DEAD.

Don't get me wrong, I loath Scheer and I really don't want him to win, but I just think that the Liberal attempt to depict him as some sort of existential threat to humanity is just not going to work.

Of provincial premiers, Scheer is probably more like Pallister and Higgs.  Both conservative but not radical and both dull and boring not particularly exciting.  Still both have been reasonably successful so far.  If comparing to overseas, he is far more like Theresa May than BoJo although somewaht more right wing than May.  Actually of European leaders, I would say Mark Rutte of Netherlands probably closest to Scheer philosophically and in style.  Likewise somewhat like Malcolm Turnbull in Australia or Bill English in New Zealand.

[adma]

All the same, the fact that this *is* the era of Trump et al has a way of framing Scheer much more negatively by association than Harper ever had the chance to be (rationally or irrationally, it's for you to decide).  Also, if we factor out the Layton-Mulcair continuum, the basic "NDP floor" timeframe was set pre-1993, i.e. in an era when the PCs were comparatively benign and un-scary.

It's really in the aftermath of the 1988 "free trade election" that the modern "unite the left to stop the right" era began (never mind that there were other issues in 1988 besides free trade)--and then it went into overdrive once premiers like Mike Harris started to be elected, and of course Ralph Nader "thwarting" Al Gore in 2000, etc.  Up to that time, such strategic hysteria tended to be more the preserve of the stop-the-socialist-hordes *right* (cf Socred-era BC)