Canadian Election 2019

[adma]

Abacus has a poll with 4,500 respondents.

Conservative 34
Liberal 33
NDP 17
Green 9
Bloc 4
People's 3

https://abacusdata.ca/a-tale-of-two-or-more-races/

Ontario Lib 37 CPC 33 NDP 19
Quebec Lib 35 CPC 23 BQ 18 NDP 12
BC CPC 31 Lib 29 NDP 22 Green 14   

On twitter there is data for Ontario subregions

Toronto: LPC 44 CPC 29 NDP 15
GTHA postal code L : LPC 37 CPC 35 NDP 19
East: LPC 41 CPC 24 NDP 21
SW: LPC 29, CPC 40 NDP 17
North (sample of 64): LPC 33 CPC 23 NDP 24 Green 17   

Why is Green only mentioned for the North?
Anyway, I think Angus will lose his seat to the Liberal candidate (same goes for Hughes in AMK).

At 33-23-24, the odds of the NDP getting wiped out in the North are low.  (If we're to take those numbers to heart, that is.)

[King of Kensington]

Anyway, I think Angus will lose his seat to the Liberal candidate (same goes for Hughes in AMK).

It is possible.  What seats do you think they will hold?

[DC Al Fine]

Anyway, I think Angus will lose his seat to the Liberal candidate (same goes for Hughes in AMK).

It is possible.  What seats do you think they will hold?

While the NDP have close to zero safe seats, I think many incumbents will hold on but it's tough to say which ones. Some guesses for NDP holds I'm confident in:

Vancouver East (probably their safest seat right now)
Skeena-Bulkley Valley
Timmins-James Bay (not exactly "safe", but close to it)
Windsor-Tecumseh

Again, I think they will hold a lot more than those seats, I'm just not sure which ones.

[King of Kensington]

What's the likelihood that the NDP vote share in Brampton East is higher than second tier TO ridings like Beaches-East York and University-Rosedale?

[toaster]

Timmins is very labour left.  Does not really fit with Singh's progressive left image.

I don't think there is 100% certainty that the NDP will win any seat in Ontario.  Even Hamilton Centre doesn't have their incumbent advantage.  Oddly, the safest seat might be a seat the NDP doesn't currently hold, Brampton East.

The NDP got 30% during the 2015 election, and Hughes won by 5% and Angus by 8%.  If the NDP is down 10% (more more), i see both of these going down.

These, I believe, are the NDP's best chances:

Brampton - East
Hamilton Centre
Brampton Centre
Brampton North
Toronto - Danforth
Parkdale - High Park
Davenport
Windsor-Tecumseh

[King of Kensington]

If Singh is struggling with the traditional labor left, the NDP is also facing some challenges with their professional middle class electorate too:  the rise of the Greens who compete for the anti-Liberal "progressive" vote and strategic voting.

[Poirot]

Abacus has a poll with 4,500 respondents.

Conservative 34
Liberal 33
NDP 17
Green 9
Bloc 4
People's 3

https://abacusdata.ca/a-tale-of-two-or-more-races/

Ontario Lib 37 CPC 33 NDP 19
Quebec Lib 35 CPC 23 BQ 18 NDP 12
BC CPC 31 Lib 29 NDP 22 Green 14  

On twitter there is data for Ontario subregions

Toronto: LPC 44 CPC 29 NDP 15
GTHA postal code L : LPC 37 CPC 35 NDP 19
East: LPC 41 CPC 24 NDP 21
SW: LPC 29, CPC 40 NDP 17
North (sample of 64): LPC 33 CPC 23 NDP 24 Green 17  

Why is Green only mentioned for the North?
Anyway, I think Angus will lose his seat to the Liberal candidate (same goes for Hughes in AMK).

Because when I tries to copy the image from twitter it seemed big on the post. I was afraid it would cause trouble in format for some. So I decided to enter the numbers myself and was lazy, wanted to save some transcript by skipping the Green since it was around 10% everywhere but the North. I will edit and put the Green numbers in my original post. I will try to include the original twitter post here: (I'll remove it if it causes formatting trouble for people)

[adma]

Timmins is very labour left.  Does not really fit with Singh's progressive left image.

I don't think there is 100% certainty that the NDP will win any seat in Ontario.  Even Hamilton Centre doesn't have their incumbent advantage.  Oddly, the safest seat might be a seat the NDP doesn't currently hold, Brampton East.

The NDP got 30% during the 2015 election, and Hughes won by 5% and Angus by 8%.  If the NDP is down 10% (more more), i see both of these going down.

These, I believe, are the NDP's best chances:

Brampton - East
Hamilton Centre
Brampton Centre
Brampton North
Toronto - Danforth
Parkdale - High Park
Davenport
Windsor-Tecumseh

Personally, I think you're being way too leader-centric in your assessment--it's not like the NDP's become the Sikh Party of Canada; so, *three* Brampton seats as part of the "best chances" list is IMO far-fetched.

Whether one likes it or not, the NDP's "labour left" core is, or should be, still more than willing to invest in the party even in the event of Jagmeet's failure...and perhaps as an investment in a post-Jagmeet future.  For that reason, I'd still put Timmins and maybe even Algoma ahead of the Brampton ridings--or even Toronto-Danforth and PHP; because, all politics is local.

I'd also be cautious about assuming that a takedown of Windsor West wouldn't drag Tecumseh down with it--after all, it too is more "labour left" than "progressive left".

[lilTommy]

Timmins is very labour left.  Does not really fit with Singh's progressive left image.

I don't think there is 100% certainty that the NDP will win any seat in Ontario.  Even Hamilton Centre doesn't have their incumbent advantage.  Oddly, the safest seat might be a seat the NDP doesn't currently hold, Brampton East.

The NDP got 30% during the 2015 election, and Hughes won by 5% and Angus by 8%.  If the NDP is down 10% (more more), i see both of these going down.

These, I believe, are the NDP's best chances:

Brampton - East
Hamilton Centre
Brampton Centre
Brampton North
Toronto - Danforth
Parkdale - High Park
Davenport
Windsor-Tecumseh

Timmins-James Bay is more then just the City of Timmins; Charlie Angus will hold the riding on his own I would say.
I'm trying to see where Singh isn't a Labour Left candidate? He was the ONLY candidate to present worker policies on labour day such as banning scabs, federal minimum wage, contract worker benefits, etc. He's been endorsed by the USW (steelworkers) in a TV spot which I haven't seen before.
Unifor, once again is going anti-Tory; expect the public sector unions to support the NDP

Not sure if you mean specifically Northern Ontario? But the NDP won 30% in 2011 nationally, in 2015 the NDP won 19% nationally, so sitting at 17% is not that far off.

For Toronto:
Toronto-Danforth (the NDP had a campaign launch there last night)
Parkdale-High Park
Davenport
... for any other riding the NDP would have to be above 25% I'd say, unless there are some surprises based on candidates like Humber River-Black Creek where long time City Councillor Maria Augimeri is running.

Hamilton Centre, while Christopherson is retiring, high profile City Councillor Matthew Green is running. Of any Hamilton seat, this is not one I see the NDP losing.

Brampton - There is too much un-known right now; there is lots of NDP feet on the ground, but this is battle ground Peel. East and North would be my top two picks for the NDP, realistically though only East is winnable right now.

[King of Kensington]

The NDP is split between its "labor-left" and "metropolitan left" wings.  It doesn't mean the latter is anti-union and not every NDP pol neatly fits into either box, but Singh is clearly from the latter group.

[mileslunn]

Abacus has a poll with 4,500 respondents.

Conservative 34
Liberal 33
NDP 17
Green 9
Bloc 4
People's 3

https://abacusdata.ca/a-tale-of-two-or-more-races/

Ontario Lib 37 CPC 33 NDP 19
Quebec Lib 35 CPC 23 BQ 18 NDP 12
BC CPC 31 Lib 29 NDP 22 Green 14  

On twitter there is data for Ontario subregions

Toronto: LPC 44 CPC 29 NDP 15
GTHA postal code L : LPC 37 CPC 35 NDP 19
East: LPC 41 CPC 24 NDP 21
SW: LPC 29, CPC 40 NDP 17
North (sample of 64): LPC 33 CPC 23 NDP 24 Green 17  

Why is Green only mentioned for the North?
Anyway, I think Angus will lose his seat to the Liberal candidate (same goes for Hughes in AMK).

Because when I tries to copy the image from twitter it seemed big on the post. I was afraid it would cause trouble in format for some. So I decided to enter the numbers myself and was lazy, wanted to save some transcript by skipping the Green since it was around 10% everywhere but the North. I will edit and put the Green numbers in my original post. I will try to include the original twitter post here: (I'll remove it if it causes formatting trouble for people)

Toronto #'s no surprise and with those would probably be hard pressed to win a single seat, but might be competitive in a few in the suburbs.  905 belt numbers suggest a close race there with narrow advantage Liberal, but campaign matters.  I have a tough time believing Tories are only at 24% in Eastern Ontario.  Maybe in Ottawa, but Eastern Ontario includes a lot of the most conservative ridings in the province, many where Tories regularly top 50% or even 60%.  Southwestern Ontario sounds about right while Northern Ontario too small to say much.  I think Charlie Angus as a possible successor will hold his seat as in Northern seats local candidate plays a much bigger role.

Provincially its why Thunder Bay ridings were close even though with a generic Liberal I suspect NDP would have taken both in a landslide.  Likewise its why the PCs picked up Kenora-Rainy River which I think would have gone NDP with a generic candidate and why Nipissing usually goes Liberal federally even in bad electiosn and PCs provincially even in bad.

[King of Kensington]

Davenport is the NDP's best bet for a seat in Toronto.  It's arguably the most left-wing seat in Toronto now.  Andrew Cash is running again and he's been working since December.

[Krago]

Here are the Ontario regional breakdowns from the 2015 Federal Election.

Area Codes	LIB	CONS	NDP	GRN	OTH
416/647/437	53%	26%	18%	2%	1%
519/226/548	37%	38%	20%	4%	1%
613/343	49%	34%	12%	3%	1%
705/249/807	41%	32%	22%	4%	0%
905/289/365	45%	39%	13%	2%	1%
Ontario	45%	35%	17%	3%	1%

Postal Code	LIB	CONS	NDP	GRN	OTH
K	48%	35%	13%	3%	1%
L	44%	40%	13%	3%	1%
M	53%	26%	18%	2%	1%
N	37%	38%	21%	3%	1%
P	43%	24%	28%	4%	0%
Ontario	45%	35%	17%	3%	1%

For those who don't speak fluent Ontarian:

Eastern - 613 - K
GTA+Horseshoe - 905 - L
City of Toronto - 416 - M
Southwestern - 519 - N
Northern - 705/807 - P


Exceptions:

Barrie/Orillia/Simcoe County - 705 - L
Peterborough/Lindsay - 705 - K
Cobourg - 905 - K
Dunnville - 905 - N
Orangeville - 519 - L

[toaster]

Mainstreet is out today and has the NDP at only 8.4% federally.

[lilTommy]

Davenport is the NDP's best bet for a seat in Toronto.  It's arguably the most left-wing seat in Toronto now.  Andrew Cash is running again and he's been working since December.

I can see that, mostly. Davenport does not have (from what I know) a wealthier enclave like some other seats that are arguably also very left-wing. But North of Davenport Road or St. Clair this is more Liberal then progressive/NDP (this is where the LPC won polls in the 2011 NDP sweep)

Parkdale-High Park -> If High Park was no within this riding, Parkdale would be already an NDP riding i'd argue, and is arguably one of the most leftist areas of the city. (LPC won polls in High Park during 2011)

Toronto-Danforth -> overall I'd argue the most progressive, generally an NDP riding, but swings to the LPC with large swings. It's made up of more, but smaller wealthier areas BUT still socially liberal/progressive, less Liberal. (LPC won 0 polls in 2011; to give you perspective, in 2011 the NDP won 60%, in 2015 the LPC won 42% during big swings for both parties. Of note, Jack Layton then NDP leader won Toronto-Danforth) But if you look provincially, in 2014 the ONDPs TO crush, the NDP still hung on here with 44%.

I do think the NDP will win one, if not all three of these... depending on how the campaign goes.

[DL]

Mainstreet is out today and has the NDP at only 8.4% federally.

Nanos today has NDP support at 16.6% - go figure

[lilTommy]

It seems that pollsters can't get the NDP/Green numbers down, we are all over the map. While the LPC and CPC numbers fluctuate by 1-2 percentage points from different pollsters, we are seeing that for the NDP and Greens we could have 8 point differences?

What is, for example, Nanos and Mainstreet doing different where one has the NDP at about 17% and the other has the NDP at 8%

[King of Kensington]

Davenport is the NDP's best bet for a seat in Toronto.  It's arguably the most left-wing seat in Toronto now.  Andrew Cash is running again and he's been working since December.

I can see that, mostly. Davenport does not have (from what I know) a wealthier enclave like some other seats that are arguably also very left-wing. But North of Davenport Road or St. Clair this is more Liberal then progressive/NDP (this is where the LPC won polls in the 2011 NDP sweep)

Parkdale-High Park -> If High Park was no within this riding, Parkdale would be already an NDP riding i'd argue, and is arguably one of the most leftist areas of the city. (LPC won polls in High Park during 2011)

Toronto-Danforth -> overall I'd argue the most progressive, generally an NDP riding, but swings to the LPC with large swings. It's made up of more, but smaller wealthier areas BUT still socially liberal/progressive, less Liberal. (LPC won 0 polls in 2011; to give you perspective, in 2011 the NDP won 60%, in 2015 the LPC won 42% during big swings for both parties. Of note, Jack Layton then NDP leader won Toronto-Danforth) But if you look provincially, in 2014 the ONDPs TO crush, the NDP still hung on here with 44%.

I do think the NDP will win one, if not all three of these... depending on how the campaign goes.

Danforth kind of reverted to post-Layton "normalcy" in 2015 (though Tabuns' incumbency gave him a boost in 2018 that put it at the top for popular vote) , but is not as progressive municipally as the west end wards.

Davenport, meanwhile, is kind of looking like Trinity-Spadina in the 1980s and 1990s.

[RogueBeaver]

Dissolution tomorrow.

[Lord Halifax]

Dissolution tomorrow.

Which of the big parties is likely to end up with the most seats?

[lilTommy]

Davenport is the NDP's best bet for a seat in Toronto.  It's arguably the most left-wing seat in Toronto now.  Andrew Cash is running again and he's been working since December.

I can see that, mostly. Davenport does not have (from what I know) a wealthier enclave like some other seats that are arguably also very left-wing. But North of Davenport Road or St. Clair this is more Liberal then progressive/NDP (this is where the LPC won polls in the 2011 NDP sweep)

Parkdale-High Park -> If High Park was no within this riding, Parkdale would be already an NDP riding i'd argue, and is arguably one of the most leftist areas of the city. (LPC won polls in High Park during 2011)

Toronto-Danforth -> overall I'd argue the most progressive, generally an NDP riding, but swings to the LPC with large swings. It's made up of more, but smaller wealthier areas BUT still socially liberal/progressive, less Liberal. (LPC won 0 polls in 2011; to give you perspective, in 2011 the NDP won 60%, in 2015 the LPC won 42% during big swings for both parties. Of note, Jack Layton then NDP leader won Toronto-Danforth) But if you look provincially, in 2014 the ONDPs TO crush, the NDP still hung on here with 44%.

I do think the NDP will win one, if not all three of these... depending on how the campaign goes.

Danforth kind of reverted to post-Layton "normalcy" in 2015 (though Tabuns' incumbency gave him a boost in 2018 that put it at the top for popular vote) , but is not as progressive municipally as the west end wards.

Davenport, meanwhile, is kind of looking like Trinity-Spadina in the 1980s and 1990s.

I think they are two different progressives. My view of it at least

Toronto Danforth has had a left-wing progressive on council, in the South end since forever, well before amalgamation. Remember this area, Riverdale, has had a NDP MPP since 67, continuously. Federally Broadview-Greenwood had a NDP MP from 65-88.
The area is much less a working-class progressive but middle-upper class intelligentsia progressive. Used to be where your leftist artists would move to, now they have been mostly gentrified out into the west end, or farther north (Out of Leslieville to Gerrard or East on the Danforth)

Davenport is the new kid to side with the NDP; used to be solid Liberal because of the immigrant community, mostly Portuguese or Italian. Still very working class, middle class, still very ethnically diverse, but much less Liberal backing. The NDP has done a really good job of building a grassroots base as a progressive option. Your students, young workers, artists, lower income people can still afford to live/work here. As mentioned before, particularly south of Davenport Rd. You can see the spill over into Parkdale (or vice versa).  

[DC Al Fine]

Dissolution tomorrow.

Which of the big parties is likely to end up with the most seats?

Probably the Liberals.

[mileslunn]

Dissolution tomorrow.

Which of the big parties is likely to end up with the most seats?

Probably the Liberals.

Would agree, due to voter efficiency, Tories need about a 2-3 point lead to win more seats as they are piling up the margins in Alberta and Saskatchewan.  Tories could win most seats, but right now my money is on the Liberals and I say that as someone who badly wants Trudeau to lose, but I still think he is favoured to get back in.

[cp]

Dissolution tomorrow.

Which of the big parties is likely to end up with the most seats?

Probably the Liberals.

Agreed. I'd go so far as to say they're being underestimated in the conventional wisdom right now, i.e. that they'll end up with another majority, albeit reduced, rather than within spitting distance of whomever comes second place.

[King of Kensington]

Yeah, I feel a Liberal majority coming.