It's interesting that the right hasn't advanced as much in these areas as demographic trends in other Western democracies (US, France, UK) would suggest. Sure, you had Kenora and a few swings towards the Tories in various places, but the rural and blue-collar center-left seems oddly resistant in Ontario. Unionization perhaps? Higher indigenous populations in Northern ridings? I've wondered about this for a few years.
Should also note these regions with a tradition of class-based support for the ''labor party'' went NDP in the last provincial election and resisitedn even though Doug Ford had a strong blue collar/populist appeal.
But look at the SW. Big swings to PCs in Essex, Sarnia, Welland, etc. Basically Ontario's "midwest".
Looking at these poll by polls in inner Toronto it seems that the closet thing to an NDP "base" is in less affluent but gentrifying areas - Dufferin Grove, parts of Parkdale, Kensington Market area, Greenwood-Coxwell. The Liberals and, in relative terms, the Greens do better among the "post-partisan" professionals.
Davenport has the most of that and no big upper middle class concentrations in it so it makes sense it's the strongest riding for the NDP. There's a dropoff in the NDP vote when you hit St. Clair when "hip" Toronto gives way to a heavily Portuguese working class area but it's only a small pocket of the riding.
Parkdale-High Park, in contrast, has an affluent western side which is harder for the NDP to win, particularly without Peggy Nash's incumbency.
Interestingly Parkdale and southern Davenport were the two wards Olivia Chow won in her mayoral race. It looks like those neighbourhoods can now definitively claim to be the most progressive in the city. A lot different than things were 20-30 years ago. The NDP didn't even win Parkdale in the 1990 provincial election.
