Canadian Election 2019

[King of Kensington]

Two Saskatchewan ridings crossed the 80% threshold:  Souris-Moose Mountain (84.4%) and Cypress Hills-Grasslands (81.1%).  Hard to believe the Liberals (!) eked out a victory in the former in 1993 but the riding after that became a Reform/Alliance/Con stronghold (though Grant Devine's indy run made things interesting in 2004).

[King of Kensington]

Popular vote, City of Toronto:

Liberals  681,551  54%  +1.3
Conservatives  291,776 23.1% -4.0
NDP  207,666  16.5%  -2.3

[King of Kensington]

Looks like the Greens cut significantly into the Liberal vote in BC. 

[King of Kensington]

Ottawa

Liberals  261,475  47.5%
Conservatives  155,132  28.2%
NDP  90,587  16.4%

Winnipeg

Liberals  123,168  35.9%
Conservatives  116,051  33.8%
NDP  80,734  23.5%

Edmonton and environs

Conservatives  347,157  57.9%
Liberals  115,463  19.3% 
NDP  109,515  18.3%

Calgary

Conservatives  404,262  65.9%
Liberals  110,769  18%
NDP  60,630  9.9%

[King of Kensington]

Fairly similar levels of Conservative support in GTA, Metro Van, Ottawa, Winnipeg.

[King of Kensington]

Since 2015 the NoVA-ization of Ottawa is very much evident.

[King of Kensington]

Since 2015, the Conservative vote share has been lower in Ottawa than in the GTA.

[King of Kensington]

What were totals from Metro Vancouver

See post #2028

[King of Kensington]

The 1917 election was rigged so immigrants from "enemy countries" couldn't vote.  

One group that couldn't be barred from voting was the German Canadian electorate in the Waterloo region.  

https://www.tvo.org/article/a-look-at-one-of-the-ugliest-federal-election-campaigns-in-canadian-history

[King of Kensington]

In Davenport Cash was likely done in by strategic voting, I'm not buying it for PHP and Danforth though.

[King of Kensington]

Maybe I'm missing something here, but I'm still surprised by Edmonton's reversion to the Tories (Calgary wasn't surprising, but I figured there was a chance in the more urban core ridings). At the provincial level (and yes, I'm well-aware of the differences between federal and provincial politics), Edmonton was still very much a fortress for the NDP. Vote splitting can certainly not be blamed for the Liberals losing Edmonton Centre considering the NDP vote share dropped by almost 4% from 2015. What explains the divergence between federal and provincial politics in Edmonton? I suppose more specifically, what does a federal Conservative/provincial NDP voter look like (particularly in Edmonton)? And we're talking about elections only 6 months apart, so not exactly far apart.

The Conservatives are the "party of Alberta." Also provincial conservative austerity hurts Alberta more than federal Conservative austerity would.  The right-wing polls about 10 points behind the federal Conservatives.

[King of Kensington]

The NDP is the main center-left party in provincial politics in Western Canada.

[King of Kensington]

Also, just curious, but is there any precedent in Canada for a government to have an opposition MP in Cabinet?

Pierre Trudeau approached Ed Broadbent of the NDP after the 1980 election about bringing in the NDP into a coalition in order to have more Western representation in the government.

[King of Kensington]

I wonder how many British Columbians mocked GW Bush and voted for Stockwell Day's Canadian Alliance that same year?

[King of Kensington]

Western alienation has narrowed geographically to Alberta and Saskatchewan.  Manitoba was never as "alienated" and BC increasingly looks like Manitoba.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6084080/analysis-western-alienation-alberta-saskatchewan/

[King of Kensington]

Sault Ste. Marie seems like the kind of place that would have had a big Obama to Trump swing if it were in the US (WWC and heavily Italian).

[King of Kensington]

The other unspoken issue is race. The NDP almost won Kenora in 2015 running former Ontario leader Howard Hampton. But this time the NDP ran First Nation chief Turtle - and while he likely did very well on a lot of FN reserves - there is a large chunk of WWC voters in northern Ontario who will vote for white NDP candidate but will go Tory if the NDP nominates an "Injun" (sic.)

Tania Cameron, who has led FN GOTV efforts in the last two elections, also did quite poorly in Kenora in 2011.

[King of Kensington]

I guess one can start crunching county/census division data.

In Ontario I'm guessing the Tories got over 50% in Dundas, Stormont and Glengarry, Renfrew, Lanark and Elgin and were in the 40s in most nonmetropolitan counties.  Cochrane and Timiskaming districts were probably the only CDs where the NDP won the popular vote.

[King of Kensington]

And now it's pretty easy to know where the biggest Orthodox Jewish concentrations are precisely.  Going up Bathurst St., it's pretty clear that they dominate the area between Briar Hill and Lawrence (Eglinton-Lawrence) and York Hill Blvd to Centre (Thornhill).  Two contiguous areas of polls with E day turnout below 25%.

[King of Kensington]

Did the Conservatives a plurality of the vote among any minority group?  Might have taken the Chinese Canadian vote, though the Liberals were also competitive with them.

[King of Kensington]

NDP are taking a tumble.

Just under half of their seats in BC. 

[King of Kensington]

Orthodox Jews for sure, pretty sure Canadian Jews as a whole went Liberal.

[King of Kensington]

Other than the natural post-Mulcair Quebec attrition and other places where they no longer had incumbent advantage (like downtown Toronto), they treaded water more than they took a tumble.  All in all, 2015 was the more critical "tumble" than 2019.

Yes, it was a a two-stage tumble for the NDP.

[King of Kensington]

Is the Korean Canadian vote more or less Tory than Chinese Canadian vote?

Very difficult to isolate the Korean Canadian vote - they are small in numbers and pretty dispersed.

[King of Kensington]

Evidence of the swing away from the Tories in very Jewish neighborhoods. 

Hampstead E day and advance polls (Mount Royal)

Liberal  1,925  53.4%
Conservative  1,002  27.8%
NDP  265  7.4%
Green  194  5.4%

Cedarvale E day (St. Paul's) 

Liberal  555  45%
Conservative  437  35.4%
NDP  145  11.8%
Green  77  6.2%


The town of Hampstead is the most Jewish municipality in Canada.  Cedarvale is home to Toronto's most prestigious Conservative and Reform synagogues.