Canadian Election 2019

[adma]

Abacus has a poll with 4,500 respondents.

Conservative 34
Liberal 33
NDP 17
Green 9
Bloc 4
People's 3

https://abacusdata.ca/a-tale-of-two-or-more-races/

Ontario Lib 37 CPC 33 NDP 19
Quebec Lib 35 CPC 23 BQ 18 NDP 12
BC CPC 31 Lib 29 NDP 22 Green 14   

On twitter there is data for Ontario subregions

Toronto: LPC 44 CPC 29 NDP 15
GTHA postal code L : LPC 37 CPC 35 NDP 19
East: LPC 41 CPC 24 NDP 21
SW: LPC 29, CPC 40 NDP 17
North (sample of 64): LPC 33 CPC 23 NDP 24 Green 17   

Why is Green only mentioned for the North?
Anyway, I think Angus will lose his seat to the Liberal candidate (same goes for Hughes in AMK).

At 33-23-24, the odds of the NDP getting wiped out in the North are low.  (If we're to take those numbers to heart, that is.)

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Timmins is very labour left.  Does not really fit with Singh's progressive left image.

I don't think there is 100% certainty that the NDP will win any seat in Ontario.  Even Hamilton Centre doesn't have their incumbent advantage.  Oddly, the safest seat might be a seat the NDP doesn't currently hold, Brampton East.

The NDP got 30% during the 2015 election, and Hughes won by 5% and Angus by 8%.  If the NDP is down 10% (more more), i see both of these going down.

These, I believe, are the NDP's best chances:

Brampton - East
Hamilton Centre
Brampton Centre
Brampton North
Toronto - Danforth
Parkdale - High Park
Davenport
Windsor-Tecumseh

Personally, I think you're being way too leader-centric in your assessment--it's not like the NDP's become the Sikh Party of Canada; so, *three* Brampton seats as part of the "best chances" list is IMO far-fetched.

Whether one likes it or not, the NDP's "labour left" core is, or should be, still more than willing to invest in the party even in the event of Jagmeet's failure...and perhaps as an investment in a post-Jagmeet future.  For that reason, I'd still put Timmins and maybe even Algoma ahead of the Brampton ridings--or even Toronto-Danforth and PHP; because, all politics is local.

I'd also be cautious about assuming that a takedown of Windsor West wouldn't drag Tecumseh down with it--after all, it too is more "labour left" than "progressive left".

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I honestly think a poll not naming local candidates is useless and shows the Liberal partisan lean of Quito Maggi.

Yes, in a way I do wonder how many people polled in Beloeil-Chambly were aware the Bloc leader's running there.  (Though if it weren't for him, I *could* see the seat going Liberal, as part of a "greater Montreal" effect.)

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Looks like the Cons are running a Christian conservative pro-life activist in York Centre.  Pretty sure Michael Levitt will hang on.  Knocks it off at the top of "most likely TO seats to go Conservative" list (I think it's Scarborough-Agincourt).

https://twitter.com/Carolyn_Bennett/status/1172121813977042946

Ya, that won't really work in TO... knock off a few points for the CPC. Ya, Scarborough-Agincourt the CPC pulled in 40% in the 2017 by-election. You then have to look at Etobicoke Centre and Don Valley North and Don Valley West as the next top targets I think  (probably less so Don Valley West, even though it is wealthier, I Think Oliphant is a more high profile incumbent)

What's even more boneheaded is that York Centre's recent Conservative trending has been Jewish-based; and for that particular demo, these kinds of socon antics are beside the point.

As for Etobicoke Centre and Don Valley West: those two only barely went Con in 2011, and overperformed for the provincial Libs in 2018 (albeit boosted for obvious reasons in the latter case).  Their affluence is more of a "Liberals are the new Progressive Conservatives" sort.

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With that in mind, Scheer is stuck between a rock and a hard place. It's not like the Scheer handpicked this woman for York Centre, and not signing a pro-life nomination winner's nomination papers is the sort of thing that might get socons to revolt, so I'm not sure I'd call it boneheaded.

Except for the kind of riding it is, and the kind of Conservative base (or at least, *voting* base) the riding has.

[adma]

With that in mind, Scheer is stuck between a rock and a hard place. It's not like the Scheer handpicked this woman for York Centre, and not signing a pro-life nomination winner's nomination papers is the sort of thing that might get socons to revolt, so I'm not sure I'd call it boneheaded.

Except for the kind of riding it is, and the kind of Conservative base (or at least, *voting* base) the riding has.

Certainly you're right at the riding level. I'm just saying if a pro-life candidate is fired in riding A, it might cause pro-lifers in ridings B, C, and D to consider going elsewhere.

Said tripwire circumstance sounds like the Conservative equivalent of the tug-of-war the NDP (or left/labour in general, think Corbynism in Britain) can face with *its* grassroots.

The Conservative running in Eglinton-Lawrence is a better fit for that base.

And arguably to a fault, in the sense of lacking the "reach" with the "Gentile" electorate that Joe Oliver, with his Bay Street connections, had.

[adma]

The main fault line in Scarborough politics, as adma has pointed out, is "Chinese" vs. "non-Chinese" Scarborough.  That was very evident in the provincial election where the PCs cracked 50% in Agincourt and Scarborough North but were held below 40% in the other ridings.  It'll be interesting to see if Scarborough North comes in at a clear #2 for Conservative vote in Scarborough.  It is heavily Chinese but has countervailing tendencies in its eastern half that Agincourt lacks.  

Though in a way, there's something like *three* Scarboroughs--the Con-trending Chinese in the north, the "Ford Liberal" ethnoburban middle, and the white(ish) south along Kingston Rd & the Bluffs which *once* would have been the most Conservative part, but of a "Mayor Tory" rather than Doug Ford sort.  The latter is what helped save Mitzie Hunter provincially last year, and nearly elected the NDP in Scarborough-Rouge Park as well...

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I wonder if Rachel Willson signed up a lot of Filipino community members.

Or, who knows about the west end of the riding, Downsview et al--which in 2014 mayoral terms was more "Ford" than "Tory", and where the Italo-Catholic and "Prayer Palace" ethnoburban-evangelical undercurrent might be more amenable to the socon pitch...

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Aside from the blackface, things are trending ominously at Nanos: from Sep 15 to 19, the Cons have gove from 32 to 38, the Libs still at 35, the NDP down from 17 to 12, Greens 10 to 8, Bloc stable at 4, PPC up from 2 to 3.

*If* things continue at this rate (which is far from certain), the Lib-reelection narrative (and the NDP-recovery narrative) would seem to look endangered...

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What? Singh literally made this, repeatedly, not about Trudeau unlike Scheer especially his first video response the night of. The man was genuinely almost brought to tears. Of all the leaders, Singh is trying (even if its only in appearance) to not capitalize or actively "go-after" Trudeau. He went back into campaign mode today talking about Pharmacare, Denticare and small business.

Indeed, I can see the Cons tripped up by "Justin Derangement Syndrome"--that is, so aggressively seeking blots on his record, the more blackface and whatever photos the better, that they turn more voters on than off: "enough, already"...

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Nanos was virtually unchanged, too. Liberals dropped less than a point and the Greens and NDP gained no more than a point (the Conservatives had a tiny drop in support). Those aren't even obvious enough changes to be anything other than statistical noise.

Today's Nanos is showing changes sinking in: Libs from 34.2 to 32.0, Cons from 37.4 to 36.8, NDP from 12.8 to 13.7, Bloc from 3.5 to 5.4 (!), Green from 9.3 to 9.0, PPC stable at 2.4.

So the Libs are definitely showing 2006-election-style damage (how lastingly, who knows), but the Cons aren't really benefiting (though this *could* shift them back into seat advantage), and the NDP's recovering from a downward blip that threatened to herd Nanos with the fourth-place-Dipper pollsters.  But, the Bloc--it'd seem as if the bulk of the damage was in Quebec (though I haven't seen any provincials, not being a Nanos subscriber)

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But what you’re missing is that the normal level of NDP support in Canadian elections going back to 1962 is about 17-18%. Lately the NDP was polling way lower than that largely because people kept being told that Singh was an weak leader. One thing everyone agrees on is that Singh has campaigned very well so far and that he hit the ball out of the park with how he handled Trudeau’s minstrel show pictures. A lot of people who usually vote NDP may now start to “come home” to their usual home and you could see the NDP move back to the mid to high teens. Just anecdotally, two weeks ago people I know who vote NDP were doing so despite Singh and no one wanted to talk about him. Now NDP voters are feeling proud of him and he is drawing bigger more enthusiastic crowds. The whole emotion around the NDP campaign has changed 180 degrees

But the one thing that *could* (not *will*, but *could*) wind up pushing against that in the end is beyond Singh's control; and that is the impulse to "stop Scheer".  A sort of modern-day Conservative Derangement Syndrome--that is, voters *liking* Jagmeet; but, y'know, we have to stop the forces of Trump and Ford from ruling our country and the only way to do that is to avoid splitting the vote, etc.  So, holding their nose and plumping for the Justinface Libs by default.  Particularly if they start seeing polls showing the Cons holding their 30something base while the Libs and Dippers edge closer together...uh-oh, better not have that.

Then again, the Cons are also trending downward w/Nanos' latest;  that is, *they* didn't get a bump from any of this--but it's not like they're guaranteed to head south of 30 anytime soon, either...

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Even now, you can never discount the power of the "a vote for the NDP is a vote for the Conservatives" forged narrative--even when it came to the giddy heights of the Orange Crush in 2011, that was so easily countered by "yeah, but that was also the year of the HarperCon majority".

In fact, the Liberals could always point to none other than Jagmeet Singh's first federal race as proof of that: that is, he shocked all observers by managing 33.5% and a close second in Bramalea-Gore-Malton in 2011 (where the NDP only got 12% in 2008)--but the Conservatives' Bal Gosal won by less than a point, and 2.7% down from their 2008 share!  (The Liberal incumbent was 3rd with 29.4%.)  So, there you have it: by voting for Jagmeet Singh, you elect a Conservative!  See?

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All the same, the fact that this *is* the era of Trump et al has a way of framing Scheer much more negatively by association than Harper ever had the chance to be (rationally or irrationally, it's for you to decide).  Also, if we factor out the Layton-Mulcair continuum, the basic "NDP floor" timeframe was set pre-1993, i.e. in an era when the PCs were comparatively benign and un-scary.

It's really in the aftermath of the 1988 "free trade election" that the modern "unite the left to stop the right" era began (never mind that there were other issues in 1988 besides free trade)--and then it went into overdrive once premiers like Mike Harris started to be elected, and of course Ralph Nader "thwarting" Al Gore in 2000, etc.  Up to that time, such strategic hysteria tended to be more the preserve of the stop-the-socialist-hordes *right* (cf Socred-era BC)

[adma]

So called strategic voting started long before that. The first election I was aware of was in 1974 and in that election the NDP lost half its seats because so many people were “terrified” that Stanfield would
Impose wage and price controls and switched from NDP to Liberal to stop Stanfield. Of course one year later the Trudeau Liberal brought in wage and price controls themselves but I digress

Funny thing is, 1974 and 1988 were more alike in that the scare tactics were more orthodoxly "policy-oriented", and less about "scary right-wingers" per se--then again, in those elections, Red Tories and Blue Liberals were much more a thing; they were more like what Maritime elections remain to this day...

[adma]

In any case after the publication of the pictures of Trudeau at a minstrel show - the Liberal strategy of dredging up bigoted quotes by Tory candidates form 15 years ago is now DEAD.

This is the biggest effect of the scandal IMO. The Liberal campaign had been going very well until this whole thing, and now they'll have to not only deal with some bad press (which on the face of it isn't a huge deal) but have to re-write their entire strategy in the middle of a campaign. If they lose, it'll be because either they weren't able to find a theme in time or because their new theme didn't resonate, not because of the blackface itself.

Or if they *don't* lose, it could be because of the Cons overplaying their card.

Incidentally, in today's Nanos 3-day running poll: the Cons have jolted down from 36.8 to 35.5, while the Libs bounced back from 32.0 to 32.9,  so it's inching back t/w dead-heat territory.  (NDP continue to inch ahead, from 13.7 to 14.0; Greens 9.0 to 9.5; Bloc 5.4 to 5.3; PPC 2.4 to 2.2.)

[adma]

I think the main outcome of this whole incident is to make Justin Trudeau look ridiculous.

And a man in his position can’t afford to be made to look ridiculous.

Though the only one *not* looking ridiculous in this whole aftermath is Jagmeet Singh.

And looking further into the Nanos daily tracker: over four consecutive days, the Cons went from 37.8-37.4-36.8-35.5, and the Libs went from 35.0-34.2-32.0-32.9. That is, over the timespan since the blackface controversy broke, the Cons have not only consistently lost share, they've lost more net share than the Libs.

Whatever's going on, it's defiinitely not been working on CPC's behalf.

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  Is there much discussion about what would happen if Conservatives win the most seats but not that close to a majority?

Jagmeet Singh's already expressed his unwillingness to support a Conservative minority.  And there are recent precedents like BC and NB (and abroad, NZ) of lesser parties in minority situations forming government.

Though I wonder what might happen if Lib + NDP + Green don't add up to CPC: would the Bloc be up to supporting the Cons' right to govern?

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Why should we expect the Bloc wouldn't be up to tacitly supporting the Tories now after they did it just recently in 2006-2011?

Exactly.

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And in today's Nanos: the Con swoon continues (from 35.5 to 34.3; Lib inched up from 32.9 to 33.1)

NDP also went down (14.0 to 12.; Green went up by almost as much (9.5 to 10.6); Bloc 5.3 to 5.8 and PPC 2.2 to 2.9 (highs for each party since Aug 2)

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And if they're weaker among 18-29, might it be a matter of, on behalf of *whom*?  (I can see NDP/Green overperforming w/that cohort, perhaps at the expense of the Libs)

[adma]

And today's Nanos daily tracker has the Libs jumping from 33.1 to 35.1, the Cons falling from 34.3 to 33.5.  So much for the CPC capitalizing on a blackface backlash...

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Angus Reid:
http://angusreid.org/election-2019-blackface-scandal/?fbclid=IwAR1okxdVnYb_H_Ey1NKxpkL2vHrWXMEpU7vBbsOc5aAlsOvxuwCDSFS_oxk

CPC- 35% -1
LPC - 30% -3
NDP - 15% +2
GRN - 11% +2
BQ - 6% +1
PPC - 3% -1

And Ipsos/Global is showing 36-32-15-11-4-2.  So, some pollsters are still showing CPC reaping the rewards...

[adma]

And now, the Cons have bounced back according to Nanos--from 33.5 to 35.4 (but the Libs also up, from 35.1 to 35.3).

That the big loser is Green (from 10.1 to 8. suggest sampling happenstances rearing their head.

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When we're dealing with certain polls that show CPC with the only *double digit* share in Sask, then it's like being non-NDP provincially in Edmonton in 2015, or non-Lib federally in the Maritimes in 2015.

Oh, and today's Nanos shows Lib bouncing back into the lead--and the NDP sorta-correcting itself after a week or so in the Nanos doldrums (12.7 to 14.5; the same that the Cons dropped by).  The Greens also corrected themselves after a one-day down blip, at the expense of the Bloc, so to speak (who are back below 5% after several days of blackface-boosted overachievement)