Canadian Election 2019

[adma]

CBC is garbage. In other news, Mainstreet finds Windsor West tied between Masse and Pupatello.

Then what predictions or forecasts aren't garbage?

I think it's more like you're taking the "bad news" too much at face value without considering that the Poll Tracker's really at the mercy of whatever polls cross its windscreen at whatever particular moment.  And at this point, the 4-seat swing is too picayune to be an indicator of anything deeper or more lasting...

But if the Liberals were making gains since last few updates of CBC's forecast, and now they had stopped doing that - then you can call it "bad news". Also please note that I am relatively new to Canadian politics.

Another thing to keep in mind that there's been a bit of an "aggregator backlash" lately, with some pollsters shrinking at providing their figures to CBC on "proprietary" et al grounds.  So beyond the shifts being incremental and often momentary or by chance, it's increasingly questionable whether we'll get the full, accurate picture from such forecasts...

[DC Al Fine]

https://twitter.com/CochraneCBC/status/1163602982828728320

Seems it make to make place for "known" country singer George Canyon.

Is MacKay totally gone from politics? On the question of who has the gravitas to succeed Scheer, where I'd previously suggested O'Toole, it seems like one of the figures on the Canadian right who is best-known, if very controversial, would be MacKay. (Other Harper-era figures who would definitely be strong candidates for the leadership and might have more "presence" than Scheer that come to mind would be Ambrose or James Moore).

Ambrose might return if Scheer loses. Moore has a disabled child, which is part of why he quit back in 2015. I doubt we'll see him in politics again.

[gottsu]

CBC is garbage. In other news, Mainstreet finds Windsor West tied between Masse and Pupatello.

Then what predictions or forecasts aren't garbage?

I think it's more like you're taking the "bad news" too much at face value without considering that the Poll Tracker's really at the mercy of whatever polls cross its windscreen at whatever particular moment.  And at this point, the 4-seat swing is too picayune to be an indicator of anything deeper or more lasting...

But if the Liberals were making gains since last few updates of CBC's forecast, and now they had stopped doing that - then you can call it "bad news". Also please note that I am relatively new to Canadian politics.

Another thing to keep in mind that there's been a bit of an "aggregator backlash" lately, with some pollsters shrinking at providing their figures to CBC on "proprietary" et al grounds.  So beyond the shifts being incremental and often momentary or by chance, it's increasingly questionable whether we'll get the full, accurate picture from such forecasts...

But this is the best we can get here. I trust CBC's predictions, but I am willing to look for other ones to compare.

[mileslunn]

Tories just landed a star candidate.  Former gold medal olympic synchronized swimmer Sylvie Frechette plans to run under the Tory banner in Riviere du Nord.  While a big catch, this is not exactly friendly Tory turf.  It did go CAQ provincially, but unless there a blue wave in Quebec, doubt she will win it.  Still attracting high profile names does look good in terms of it shows some think the Tories have a chance.

[mileslunn]

Nanos is out and some interesting results, particularly Ontario and PPC #'s so for subscribers worth checking out.  Power party index and best PM are still publicly available and both show a slight tightening but well within margin of error.  On vote consider, both Tories and Liberals are on lower end of the 12 month high and 12 month low and ditto NDP, while only Green going up here.

Innovative Research has an interesting report out and shows except Greens and Elizabeth May, all three main leaders have negative approval ratings and each of the three main parties have negative ratings.  While all within margin of error, Scheer is least negative, followed closely by Singh, and then Trudeau but range is -12 to -15.  On Parties Tories do worse, NDP best but all fall in the -9 to -15 range so quite close.  PPC does the worst, but so no surprise.

[gottsu]

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

Does Scheer speech about same sex marriages in 2005 had impact on latest CBC forecasts?

[DC Al Fine]

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

Does Scheer speech about same sex marriages in 2005 had impact on latest CBC forecasts?

Not yet. Canadians don't pay much attention to politics in the summer. I see exactly one poll since the Liberals attacked him on SSM and it shows no change. That's not to say it won't have an effect, but I wouldn't expect to see it until September.

[Hatman 🍁]

CBC is garbage. In other news, Mainstreet finds Windsor West tied between Masse and Pupatello.

Then what predictions or forecasts aren't garbage?

I think it's more like you're taking the "bad news" too much at face value without considering that the Poll Tracker's really at the mercy of whatever polls cross its windscreen at whatever particular moment.  And at this point, the 4-seat swing is too picayune to be an indicator of anything deeper or more lasting...

But if the Liberals were making gains since last few updates of CBC's forecast, and now they had stopped doing that - then you can call it "bad news". Also please note that I am relatively new to Canadian politics.

CBC is garbage. In other news, Mainstreet finds Windsor West tied between Masse and Pupatello.

Then what predictions or forecasts aren't garbage?

Mine

So post them here I am interested in federal predictions, if you're creating them.

Unfortunately as I am a pollster with paying clients, I can't divulge this until election day. :/

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/ipoliticsca/status/1167478382839382018

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/CBCKatie/status/1167541440840372225

[Poirot]

So Saint-Léonard Saint-Michel might still get their Italian of origin MP   

[Poirot]

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

Does Scheer speech about same sex marriages in 2005 had impact on latest CBC forecasts?

Not yet. Canadians don't pay much attention to politics in the summer. I see exactly one poll since the Liberals attacked him on SSM and it shows no change. That's not to say it won't have an effect, but I wouldn't expect to see it until September.

Might be the abortion position that hurts more. Conservative Party usually have to deal with fears of social conservative agenda.

The extra month of official campaign we had in 2015 looks to me this time as the government party campaigning before the others. There have been a lot of announcements, distributing money for projects. It gives the government positive visibility while the opposition parties are much less covered. 

[DC Al Fine]

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

Does Scheer speech about same sex marriages in 2005 had impact on latest CBC forecasts?

Not yet. Canadians don't pay much attention to politics in the summer. I see exactly one poll since the Liberals attacked him on SSM and it shows no change. That's not to say it won't have an effect, but I wouldn't expect to see it until September.

Might be the abortion position that hurts more. Conservative Party usually have to deal with fears of social conservative agenda.

Scheer is in an awkward spot on that front. The religious right is small and unpopular enough that he needs to attract and reassure social liberals to win, but a big enough part of his coalition that he can't afford to alienate them entirely. The People's Party further complicates things, as they present a plausible alternative to the Tories, unlike the Harper era, when no alternative existed. It's a tough needle to thread.

[136or142]

https://twitter.com/CBCKatie/status/1167541440840372225

It seems if you criticize Israel, Canadian Jewish groups will call you Antisemitic, and now, if you criticize Jewish groups for being obsessed with Israel, you'll also be called Antisemitic.  As a Jew, these groups do not speak for me.

[CumbrianLefty]

Hmmm, sounds rather familiar somehow......

[super6646]

Totally forgot this board existed lol. Already posted this on the international discussion board, but it’s relevant here as well:

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

Intersting the Cons continue to hold a narrow lead in the PV (about 2%) while the Libs hold a slight edge in the seat count. If this happens, it would be the first time since 1979 (I believe) that the party that won the PV did not become the leading party in parliament.

Collapse in Ontario has absolutely been killing the Cons though. I can't see them gaining too many additional seats in the west at this point, so a breakthrough is going to have to occur at some point if a win is feasible. There are only two candidates over the last 40 years that have won when losing the PV vote in Ontario (Harper 06 and Mulroney in 88), and only one candidate has lost the seat count in that province and still won the election (Harper again in 2006). Odds are stacked against Scheer at this point in time.

[MaxQue]

Hmmm, sounds rather familiar somehow......

Nothing to do with Corbyn scandals. Bnai Brith is a Jewish supremacist organisation that consider any critisism of Israel as anti-semitism.

[super6646]

A few updates on polls and so far it seems any impact for ethics commissioner report has not materialized at least not yet and may not at all.  Numbers still a bit over the place, but some interesting pictures emerge.

Advanced Symbolics which tries to use AI to predict results (I am bit skeptical of this, but only NDP numbers seem high, others seem about right) has Liberals 147 seats, Conservatives 139 seats, NDP 31 seats, BQ 17 seats, Green party 3 seats, PPC 1 seat.

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

CBC predictions are different, but they were not updated since 5 days, so maybe there were some changes due to SNC-Lavalin affair last days.

So we are looking at a Liberal Minority or Liberals needs NDP to have a working majority? I don't know much about how the Canadians actually run their parliament. I know that Harper basically ran a Conservative minority government even though a clear majority of MPs were left-of-center between 2011 and 2015. I
 even remember that in the aftermath of 2011, many commentators were saying that Liberals were becoming a centrist third party and that the Conservatives would be elected again, again, and again until the NDP, the new "main opposition", could maybe eventually win one but it could be decades before that happened, if ever.

I think if the election were to happen right now then you’d likely be looking at a Small Liberal Majority. With the Conservatives making gains and the NDP struggling badly.

I don’t know a ton about different ridings but it seems like Conservatives concentrate votes in areas where they crush everyone else with big majorities. Meanwhile in the marginals Liberals consistently get just enough votes to take the seats.That’s why current CBC polls show Conservatives ahead in the polls (slightly) but Liberals to land more seats

Late reply to this, but this generally seems pretty correct. With the exception of BC (cons are ahead slightly, but their support is more spread out while the libs are running up the score in Vancouver), the  cons are generally running up the score a lot in Alberta and the other prairie provinces. Meanwhile, they’ve lost a lot of support in Ontario (Id presume especially in some of the battleground ridings in southern Ontario (if anyone could remind me what the specific region is called that would be great)), which means even though they can win the popular vote off of their gains in the west (and the cons are much stronger pretty much everywhere in this region compared to last time), it’s not enough to offset their losses. Already had a post about how important Ontario is to the cons, but I can’t see a path for a con win without them approaching at least within 2-3 points of the liberals at this time.

[Poirot]

(if anyone could remind me what the specific region is called that would be great)

Do you mean the 905 area code

[super6646]

(if anyone could remind me what the specific region is called that would be great)

Do you mean the 905 area code

Yes, thank you.

[Poirot]

Full data of the weekend's Léger poll.

34% Lib, 33% CPC, 12% NDP, 12% Green, 5% Bloc, 3% PPC

https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Federal-Politics-August-31-2019.pdf

The two main parties have more male support than female. I thought Trudeau and Liberals would be higer among female. Maybe it's just this one poll. The Green support is more female than male, so is the NDP.

In Ontario, Léger has the Liberals ahead 39% to 32% CPC with NDP 15% and Green 11%.

By age group, the Greens are pretty even among the three age groups. I thought it would skew younger. The NDP does much better among under 35 than other two groups. The Bloc does much worse among the younger group.

They have other questions...

Party you would never vote for: Lib 23% CPC 20%, PPC 16%, NDP 10%

35% say it's possible they vote Green, 48% out of the question

37% are very or somehat satisfied with the government, 57% on the dissatisfied side

Government's track record is rather positive for 21%, 28% neither positive or negative, 46% rather negative

Best PM: Trudeau 26%, Scheer 19, May 8, Singh 6, Bernier 4 (Trudeau numbers up, Scheer down)

Liberals deserve a second mandate: yes 31%, no 48%, Not sure don't know 21%

34% believe the Conservatives are ready to form government, 45% No, 22% don't know

Leaders debates important in making decision: 46% yes, 43 No

Should Maxime Bernier participate in debates: Yes 52%, No 24%, Don't know 24

For Quebec sample, best positioned to defend's Quebec interests: Bloc 31%, Lib 20%, CPC, 11%, PPC 5, Green 3, NDP 2, No answer 18   

[DC Al Fine]

NDP at 7% in Quebec. Oof. That won't be good for the Tories or Bloc either. Might save the Liberal's bacon too, depending on the final national result.

[Poirot]

Léger's poll had a sample of a thousand in Quebec so big enough to look at regional numbers with respectable margin of error.

Quebec numbers
Lib 34%, Con 23%, Bloc 20, Green 11, NDP 7, PPC 4

Conservative vote is much more male (28% among male, 18% female)
Green is much more female (8% male, 14% female)

By age the Liberals do best among over 55. Conservative vote is even by age group. Bloc does poorly among under 35, placing 5th while second among over 55.
Green and NDP do best among the young.
   
By language:

Francos
Lib 28%, Bloc 25%, Cons 23%, Green 13%, NDP 6%, PPC 4%
Non Francos
Lib 54%, Cons 24%, NDP 9%, Green 6%, Bloc 3%, PPC 3%

By region:

Montreal census Metro area: Lib 39, Bloc 20, Cons 18, Green 13, NDP 7, PPC 2

Quebec City census Metro area: Cons 35, Lib 28, Bloc 15, Green 11, PPC 7, NDP 3

Rest of Quebec: Lib 29, Cons 26, Bloc 22, Green 10, NDP 8, PPC 5

The Conservatives don't seem to be totally dominating Quebec City, it could be because of PPC support. NDP vote would have to be very concentrated to win more than a couple seats. Bloc's focus on environment isn't attracting young voters.   

[King of Kensington]

On the NDP's "save the furniture" campaign:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-low-budget-high-stakes-ndp-hopes-singhs-campaign-shift-isnt-too/

[Poirot]

On the NDP's "save the furniture" campaign:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-low-budget-high-stakes-ndp-hopes-singhs-campaign-shift-isnt-too/

The end of public financing for parties increases the difference in financial resources between the two main parties and the others.

The article talks about an NDP spot coming. Is this a tv ad. Currently I see a Conservative ad running, they had others in the Spring. Liberals also ran a couple of months ago. I was reading an article on the camapign plans of the different parties this weekend and the Bloc was saying they don't have more money than last time, will focus on social media, with little videos and they have to make choices and it means they won't have tv ads. Not sure I understood well. No tv ads when the other main parties will probably saturate voters with their message on tv.