Canadian Election 2019

[MillennialModerate]

A few updates on polls and so far it seems any impact for ethics commissioner report has not materialized at least not yet and may not at all.  Numbers still a bit over the place, but some interesting pictures emerge.

Advanced Symbolics which tries to use AI to predict results (I am bit skeptical of this, but only NDP numbers seem high, others seem about right) has Liberals 147 seats, Conservatives 139 seats, NDP 31 seats, BQ 17 seats, Green party 3 seats, PPC 1 seat.

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

CBC predictions are different, but they were not updated since 5 days, so maybe there were some changes due to SNC-Lavalin affair last days.

So we are looking at a Liberal Minority or Liberals needs NDP to have a working majority? I don't know much about how the Canadians actually run their parliament. I know that Harper basically ran a Conservative minority government even though a clear majority of MPs were left-of-center between 2011 and 2015. I
 even remember that in the aftermath of 2011, many commentators were saying that Liberals were becoming a centrist third party and that the Conservatives would be elected again, again, and again until the NDP, the new "main opposition", could maybe eventually win one but it could be decades before that happened, if ever.

I think if the election were to happen right now then you’d likely be looking at a Small Liberal Majority. With the Conservatives making gains and the NDP struggling badly.

I don’t know a ton about different ridings but it seems like Conservatives concentrate votes in areas where they crush everyone else with big majorities. Meanwhile in the marginals Liberals consistently get just enough votes to take the seats.That’s why current CBC polls show Conservatives ahead in the polls (slightly) but Liberals to land more seats

[Person Man]

A few updates on polls and so far it seems any impact for ethics commissioner report has not materialized at least not yet and may not at all.  Numbers still a bit over the place, but some interesting pictures emerge.

Advanced Symbolics which tries to use AI to predict results (I am bit skeptical of this, but only NDP numbers seem high, others seem about right) has Liberals 147 seats, Conservatives 139 seats, NDP 31 seats, BQ 17 seats, Green party 3 seats, PPC 1 seat.

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

CBC predictions are different, but they were not updated since 5 days, so maybe there were some changes due to SNC-Lavalin affair last days.

So we are looking at a Liberal Minority or Liberals needs NDP to have a working majority? I don't know much about how the Canadians actually run their parliament. I know that Harper basically ran a Conservative minority government even though a clear majority of MPs were left-of-center between 2011 and 2015. I
 even remember that in the aftermath of 2011, many commentators were saying that Liberals were becoming a centrist third party and that the Conservatives would be elected again, again, and again until the NDP, the new "main opposition", could maybe eventually win one but it could be decades before that happened, if ever.

I think if the election were to happen right now then you’d likely be looking at a Small Liberal Majority. With the Conservatives making gains and the NDP struggling badly.

I don’t know a ton about different ridings but it seems like Conservatives concentrate votes in areas where they crush everyone else with big majorities. Meanwhile in the marginals Liberals consistently get just enough votes to take the seats.That’s why current CBC polls show Conservatives ahead in the polls (slightly) but Liberals to land more seats

So its basically the exact opposite of American political culture where there is "Republican" rule  by the left-of-center and hence why basically Canadian policy right now reads like  a left-of-center politician's wish list.

[cp]

A few updates on polls and so far it seems any impact for ethics commissioner report has not materialized at least not yet and may not at all.  Numbers still a bit over the place, but some interesting pictures emerge.

Advanced Symbolics which tries to use AI to predict results (I am bit skeptical of this, but only NDP numbers seem high, others seem about right) has Liberals 147 seats, Conservatives 139 seats, NDP 31 seats, BQ 17 seats, Green party 3 seats, PPC 1 seat.

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

CBC predictions are different, but they were not updated since 5 days, so maybe there were some changes due to SNC-Lavalin affair last days.

So we are looking at a Liberal Minority or Liberals needs NDP to have a working majority? I don't know much about how the Canadians actually run their parliament. I know that Harper basically ran a Conservative minority government even though a clear majority of MPs were left-of-center between 2011 and 2015.
I even remember that in the aftermath of 2011, many commentators were saying that Liberals were becoming a centrist third party and that the Conservatives would be elected again, again, and again. This would happen until the NDP, the new "main opposition", could maybe eventually win one but it could be decades before that happened, if ever.
Have no ideas what Canada would be like after 4 or 5 consecutive Conservative government. Would it not much change? Would it be more or less shift from Bernie Sander's America into Biden's America? Would it become what America is now more or less or would it become a generically right-wing country where abortion is illegal and the only people who can see a doctor or get proper treatment for chronic conditions and grave illness are those who can afford it? FWIW, my understanding of Canadian immigration or even Canadian tourism law is that its already pretty Trumpy.

The Tories led minority governments from 2006-2011, not 2011-2015. I'm also not quite sure it's accurate to say there was a clear majority of 'left-of-centre' MPs during those years. There were, and still are, plenty of centrist Liberals further to the 'right' than some Tories, at least on specific issues. Meanwhile, the BQ had a contingent of pro-business and small town MPs who wouldn't fit any description of left wing.

There were a good number of commentators predicting a realignment as you described; this view was especially prominent among Conservative circles, as it portended much more durable electoral success for that party. Truth be told it was always a little pie-eyed as analysis goes, and it ended pretty quickly as soon as Trudeau took the helm of the Liberals and shot back to first place in the polls.

[DL]

The Tories led minority governments from 2006-2011, not 2011-2015. I'm also not quite sure it's accurate to say there was a clear majority of 'left-of-centre' MPs during those years.

The thing that was different in that period was that the BQ had 50 seats and after the 2006 election they made it clear that there was no way in a million years that they would ever back another Liberal government under Paul Martin what with the sponsorship scandal. If the Liberals+NDP had had a majority between them, you can be sure Harper would never have formed a government. After the 2008 election there was an attempt at a Liberal-NDP minority government with BQ support, but because the Liberals had already allowed a Throne speech to pass, Harper was able to go to the GG and demand a prorogation.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/natnewswatch/status/1163904553437151233

[DL]

There are zero remotely winnable seats for the NDP in New Brunswick so why would the party waste time and money there?

[MaxQue]

https://twitter.com/CochraneCBC/status/1163602982828728320

Seems it make to make place for "known" country singer George Canyon.

[Hatman 🍁]

https://twitter.com/natnewswatch/status/1163904553437151233

I'm sure Godin is welcome to run if he wants. It would've also been nice if he had entered provincial politics.

[DC Al Fine]

https://twitter.com/natnewswatch/status/1163904553437151233

I'm sure Godin is welcome to run if he wants. It would've also been nice if he had entered provincial politics.

Yeah. Parties have limited resources and they ought to spend them on

a) Marginal seats
b) Investing in seats that might trend your way for whatever reason (e.g. IIRC the Tories spent a lot of $$$ in Quebec City in 2004 and 2006).

I can't think of anywhere in New Brunswick that fits those categories for the NDP.

[adma]

https://twitter.com/natnewswatch/status/1163904553437151233

I'm sure Godin is welcome to run if he wants. It would've also been nice if he had entered provincial politics.

Yeah. Parties have limited resources and they ought to spend them on

a) Marginal seats
b) Investing in seats that might trend your way for whatever reason (e.g. IIRC the Tories spent a lot of $$$ in Quebec City in 2004 and 2006).

I can't think of anywhere in New Brunswick that fits those categories for the NDP.

Well, strictly building on 2015, Acadie-Bathurst (where the replacement for Yvan Godin got 39.4%) and Madawaska-Restigouche (NDP 2nd at 26%, almost 10 points ahead of PC incumbent Bernard Valcourt)  That is, *strictly* building.  But it sounds like they're not even trying.  (And oddly enough, NB's a place where the federal NDP in recent elections has noticeably overperformed what they "should" be doing given their dismal provincial record--in both 2008 and more predictably 2011, all their NB candidates got over 15%)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Right, and to not even have candidates in place for an ordinarily scheduled election in two months?

[DC Al Fine]

Right, and to not even have candidates in place for an ordinarily scheduled election in two months?

That's not really that unusual for the NDP though. They're notoriously slow at nominating candidates, even in seats that could be considered targets. Scrolling through Wikipedia, there are still a few seats that the NDP that could reasonably win, that have nominations scheduled for right before the writ drops.

[DC Al Fine]

https://twitter.com/natnewswatch/status/1163904553437151233

I'm sure Godin is welcome to run if he wants. It would've also been nice if he had entered provincial politics.

Yeah. Parties have limited resources and they ought to spend them on

a) Marginal seats
b) Investing in seats that might trend your way for whatever reason (e.g. IIRC the Tories spent a lot of $$$ in Quebec City in 2004 and 2006).

I can't think of anywhere in New Brunswick that fits those categories for the NDP.

Well, strictly building on 2015, Acadie-Bathurst (where the replacement for Yvan Godin got 39.4%) and Madawaska-Restigouche (NDP 2nd at 26%, almost 10 points ahead of PC incumbent Bernard Valcourt)  That is, *strictly* building.  But it sounds like they're not even trying.  (And oddly enough, NB's a place where the federal NDP in recent elections has noticeably overperformed what they "should" be doing given their dismal provincial record--in both 2008 and more predictably 2011, all their NB candidates got over 15%)

Peesonally, I think the NDP's 'Maritime moment' is over outside of a few urban centres, based on the direction the party is going, but fair point. They aren't ridiculously behind in those seats, and should at least have candidates lined up, especially in Godin's old seat.

[Hatman 🍁]

Technically Jagmeet isn't even nominated yet.

The NDP has a rather rigorous vetting process. If they had a the same process as the PPC, they'd have a full slate by now.

Suprisingly, there are some ridings where there is a lot of candidates running for the nomination, some of them are not targets. There's 5 or 6 in Oshawa and 5 in NDG, 3 in Griesbach, and even 2 in Papineau, Renfrew and Egmont(!)

[gottsu]

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

Bad news for Grits this time, they lost 4 seats in latest CBC's forecast - while Tories gain also 4 and they have expanded their lead a little bit in the popular vote poll - in which liberals also were making gains at present.

[RogueBeaver]

CBC is garbage. In other news, Mainstreet finds Windsor West tied between Masse and Pupatello.

[gottsu]

CBC is garbage. In other news, Mainstreet finds Windsor West tied between Masse and Pupatello.

Then what predictions or forecasts aren't garbage?

[Holmes]

Oh, Pulatello's running in Windsor West? Hm.

[Hatman 🍁]

CBC is garbage. In other news, Mainstreet finds Windsor West tied between Masse and Pupatello.

Then what predictions or forecasts aren't garbage?

Mine

[adma]

CBC is garbage. In other news, Mainstreet finds Windsor West tied between Masse and Pupatello.

Then what predictions or forecasts aren't garbage?

I think it's more like you're taking the "bad news" too much at face value without considering that the Poll Tracker's really at the mercy of whatever polls cross its windscreen at whatever particular moment.  And at this point, the 4-seat swing is too picayune to be an indicator of anything deeper or more lasting...

[LabourJersey]

When's the writ of election dropping anyway? Assuming the election is late October I would've thought the vote would be officially announced by now

[DL]

Normally the official campaign period is 35 days

[Njall]

When's the writ of election dropping anyway? Assuming the election is late October I would've thought the vote would be officially announced by now

The expectation is Sept. 16

[gottsu]

CBC is garbage. In other news, Mainstreet finds Windsor West tied between Masse and Pupatello.

Then what predictions or forecasts aren't garbage?

I think it's more like you're taking the "bad news" too much at face value without considering that the Poll Tracker's really at the mercy of whatever polls cross its windscreen at whatever particular moment.  And at this point, the 4-seat swing is too picayune to be an indicator of anything deeper or more lasting...

But if the Liberals were making gains since last few updates of CBC's forecast, and now they had stopped doing that - then you can call it "bad news". Also please note that I am relatively new to Canadian politics.

CBC is garbage. In other news, Mainstreet finds Windsor West tied between Masse and Pupatello.

Then what predictions or forecasts aren't garbage?

Mine

So post them here I am interested in federal predictions, if you're creating them.

[Vosem]

https://twitter.com/CochraneCBC/status/1163602982828728320

Seems it make to make place for "known" country singer George Canyon.

Is MacKay totally gone from politics? On the question of who has the gravitas to succeed Scheer, where I'd previously suggested O'Toole, it seems like one of the figures on the Canadian right who is best-known, if very controversial, would be MacKay. (Other Harper-era figures who would definitely be strong candidates for the leadership and might have more "presence" than Scheer that come to mind would be Ambrose or James Moore).