Canadian Election 2019

[DistingFlyer]

Here's a breakdown of ridings by party & marginality. For the purposes of this table, 'Safe' means a margin of 25% or more, 'Marginal' means winning by under 10%, and 'Moderate' is between the two.



Overall, the distribution of ridings within the three categories isn't much different from usual, though within parties (specifically government vs. opposition) we see some notable differences.

Firstly, just over a quarter of Liberal ridings were won by 25% or more - the lowest share for a Liberal government in the last century, and the lowest for any Government since 1962. Conversely, about 45% of Tory ridings were won by such margins - the highest share for them when they haven't won power in the last century, and the highest for a Liberal or Tory Official Opposition (the 1993 Bloc & 2000 Alliance had more) since 1979 (coincidentally, the last time the Liberals lost while still dominating Quebec).

The comparison between this week's Tory dominance of the Prairies (particularly Alberta & Saskatchewan) doesn't stop there if you look at the number of ridings won by 50% or more ('Ultra-Safe'): thirty-two this time, all by Tories (once more, say it with me now: the most in a century). The Liberals exceeded this number in 1980 (the last time they dominated Quebec, with 68% of the vote), and nearly matched it in 1921 & 1979 (albeit in a smaller Commons). The lack of any Liberal margins above this threshold is also a first for a winning party.

[DistingFlyer]

With all the talk of votes vs seat pluralities, it's interesting how when it comes to Student Vote Canada, the third place party in votes got the most seats, and the party with the most votes was third place in seats.  (And nobody got more than 25.1% of the vote.)
 https://studentvote.ca/canada/results/

Interesting to see it broken down by province; the low Bloc total in Quebec (both votes and ridings) is encouraging.

We have known for a while that separatism is a dead issue among the younger generations, with the exception being the 'radical-on-everything' types that are lockstep with the QS. Those born recently only have memory of the Bloc as a separatist party, so even their movement away on that issue might not help with the youth. There are different battles to be fought, so why bother picking up the banner left by your parents when the Bloc doesn't own your issues the best. Additionally rural Quebec has that rural problem where the youth are heading for the Liberal/NDP cities and not staying in communities more tied to the Bloc.

Agreed on all points - just having same confirmed by the figures was very nice to see.

Though young people being young people, I do notice your typical upticks in what might be called the trollish "Bart vote" (wherever there were Communist, Marxist-Leninist, Rhinoceros, Marijuana candidates running) and the more earnest "Lisa vote" (not just NDP/Green, but Animal Alliance and Stop Climate Change).

And perhaps, some might say in a scarier echo/reflection of the far right's young-male social-media outreach, the People's vote is also above par (though never in winning contention; almost like it's all confined to the scary-incel lunch room table)

Could be, though I'd wager that most of their supporters belong with what you call the 'trollish "Bart vote"' than anything else.

[DistingFlyer]

Here's a further breakdown by party of the average majority & average vote share of winners this time:

Liberal
Average Margin (%): 18.0% (lowest for a winning party since 1962)
Average Margin (votes): 9315 (lowest for a winning party since 2004)
Largest Margin (%): 49.4% in Saint-Léonard – Saint-Michel (lowest for a winning party since 1957)
Largest Margin (votes): 25539 in Lac-Saint-Louis (lowest for a winning party since 1962)
Average Vote: 46.6% (lowest for a winning party since 1962)
Largest Vote (%): 62.2% in Scarborough – Rouge Park (lowest ever for a winning party)
Candidates with >50% of the Vote: 54 (34% of MPs)

Conservative
Average Margin (%): 31.1% (highest for Conservatives since at least 1917, and highest for anyone since 1980)
Average Margin (votes): 17518 (highest ever)
Largest Margin (%): 80.4% in Battle River – Crowfoot (highest for Conservatives since 1917, highest for a losing party since 1917, & highest for anyone since 1968)
Largest Margin (votes): 52544 in Edmonton – Wetaskiwin (highest ever)
Average Vote: 54.8% (highest for small-c conservatives since Alliance in 2000, & capital-c Conservatives since 1958; highest for anyone since 2004)
Largest Vote: 85.5% in Battle River – Crowfoot (highest for Conservatives since 1917, highest for a losing party since 1957, & highest for anyone since 1968)
Candidates with >50% of the Vote: 57 (47% of MPs)

New Democratic
Average Margin (%): 12.7% (better than 2015, but less than 2006-2011)
Average Margin (votes): 6079 (see above remarks)
Largest Margin (%): 34.4% in Vancouver East (see above remarks again)
Largest Margin (votes): 19151 in Vancouver East (better than 2015, but less than 2008-2011)
Average Vote: 41.1% (better than 2015, but less than 2000-2011)
Largest Vote: 52.6% in Vancouver East (see above remarks)
Candidates with >50% of the Vote: 1 (4% of MPs)

Bloc
Average Margin (%): 16.9% (much better than 2011-2015, but less than 2004-2008)
Average Margin (votes): 9443 (see above remarks)
Largest Margin (%): 38.8% in Bécanour – Nicolet – Saurel (much better than 2011-2015, but less than 1993-2008)
Largest Margin (votes): 20595 in Joliette (better than 2011-2015, but less than 2004-2008)
Average Vote: 45.1% (better than 2011-2015, but less than 1993-2008)
Largest Vote: 58.2% in Joliette (better than 2008-2015, but less than 1993-2006)
Candidates with >50% of the Vote: 11 (34% of MPs)


Overall
Average Margin (%): 22.1% (highest since 2008)
Average Margin (votes): 12015 (highest since 1993)
Largest Margin (%): 80.4% in Battle River – Crowfoot (highest since 1968)
Largest Margin (votes): 52544 in Edmonton – Wetaskiwin (highest ever)
Average Vote: 48.9% (higher than 2015, but lower than 2011)
Largest Vote: 85.5% in Battle River – Crowfoot (highest since 1968)
Candidates with >50% of the Vote: 123 (36% of MPs) (lowest as a percentage of the House since 1997; 2000 was the last time a majority of MPs were elected with a majority of the vote)

[DistingFlyer]

Popular vote, City of Toronto:

Liberals  681,551  54%  +1.3
Conservatives  291,776  -4.0
NDP  207,666  16.5%  -2.3

Yes, the Liberals saw their vote increase in the GTA as well as Montreal. To wit:

Metro Toronto
Liberals - 25 MPs & 54.0% (+2%)
Conservatives - 23.0% (-3%)
New Democrats - 16.5% (-2%)
Greens - 4.7% (+2%)

GTA (including Metro Toronto)
Liberals - 49 MPs & 49.5% (+0%)
Conservatives - 6 MPs & 30.2% (-4%)
New Democrats - 13.8% (-0%)
Greens - 4.4% (+2%)

Montreal & Laval
Liberals - 20 MPs & 48.7% (+3 MPs & +2%)
Bloquistes - 1 MP & 19.7% (+6%)
New Democrats - 1 MP & 14.2% (-3 MPs & -10%)
Conservatives - 10.1% (-2%)
Greens - 5.6% (+3%)


Additionally, while the Liberal vote declined fairly sharply in what one might call the Greater Vancouver area their number of MPs remained strong:

Liberals - 11 MPs & 33.7% (-3 MPs & -10%)
Conservatives - 6 MPs & 29.8% (+3 MPs & +1%)
New Democrats - 4 MPs & 24.3% (-1 MP & +1%)
Greens - 8.7% (+4%)
Others - 1 MP (Jody Wilson-Raybould)

[DistingFlyer]

Looks like the Greens cut significantly into the Liberal vote in BC. 

Could be. Here's how things looked in the rest of the province:

Conservatives - 11 MPs & 37.8% (+4 MPs & +6%)
New Democrats - 7 MPs & 24.6% (-2 MPs & -4%)
Greens - 2 MPs & 15.9% (+1 MP & +4%)
Liberals - 19.3% (-3 MPs & -8%)


Here's how the rest of Quebec voted:

Bloquistes: 31 MPs & 37.0% (+22 MPs & +16%)
Liberals - 15 MPs & 29.1% (-8 MPs & -3%)
Conservatives - 10 MPs & 18.1% (-2 MPs & -0%)
New Democrats - 9.6% (-12 MPs & -16%)
Greens - 4.1% (+2%)


And here's how the rest of Ontario voted:

Liberals - 30 MPs & 35.5% (-1 MP & -6%)
Conservatives - 30 MPs & 35.2% (+3 MPs & -1%)
New Democrats - 6 MPs & 19.1% (-2 MPs & +1%)
Greens - 7.6% (+4%)

Both big parties dropped in Ontario (the Tories probably because of their provincial counterparts, and the Liberals probably because of themselves); the Liberals fell by 7% in the East & North, and 4% in the West. The Tories fell 2% in the West, held steady in the East & rose 3% in the North. Once final figures are in for the last three Ontario seats I'll put up figures for those regions (they're all in Northern Ontario, and since the preliminary figures all appear to be missing some polling stations the final figures may alter the overall total a little bit as there are only ten ridings in total up there).

[DistingFlyer]

One further item: thirty-two of thirty-four Ministers running for re-election were successful. That's one of the better success rates for a Ministry (in the top third), as well as the best result for a Government that lost seats overall since 1953 (1958, 1974 & 2008 saw fewer losses than this time, but in all three cases the Government was returned with an improved position). The last time an election saw no Ministers defeated at all was 1958.

[DistingFlyer]

I'd spoken earlier about the Prairies vs. the GTA, and how when the Tories bregan to do well in the former they did poorly in the latter.

Lacking maps from the period I want to describe (except ones of 1953-65 that omit the West), I'll have to make do with figures. I'll cover 1921 to 1965:


1921 - GTA (15 MPs)
Conservatives - 12 MPs, 47.9%
Liberals - 2 MPs, 31.7%
Progressives - 1 MPs, 12.4%
Labour - 4.4%

1921 - Prairies (43 MPs)
Progressives - 38 MPs, 54.5%
Liberals - 2 MPs, 16.3%
Labour - 2 MPs, 4.1%
Conservatives - 20.1%


1925 - GTA (16 MPs)
Conservatives - 16 MPs, 67.2%
Liberals - 29.7%
Labour - 0.5%

1925 - Prairies (54 MPs)
Progressives - 22 MPs, 30.2%
Liberals - 20 MPs, 30.1%
Conservatives - 10 MPs, 32.5%
Labour - 2 MPs


1926 - GTA (16 MPs)
Conservatives - 16 MPs, 62.4%
Liberals - 29.0%
Labour - 1.0%

1926 - Prairies (54 MPs)
Liberals - 32 MPs, 42.1%
Progressives - 18 MPs, 20.2%
Labour - 3 MPs, 4.0%
Conservatives - 1 MP, 33.4%


1930 - GTA (16 MPs)
Conservatives - 14 MPs, 61.8%
Liberals - 2 MPs, 37.7%
Labour - 0.3%

1930 - Prairies (54 MPs)
Conservatives - 23 MPs, 39.7%
Liberals - 18 MPs, 39.4%
Progressives - 11 MPs, 14.5%
Labour - 2 MPs, 3.4%


With the Depression having dragged on for nearly six years, three new parties arrive and the Prairies get a big political shakeup:

1935 - GTA (19 MPs)
Conservatives - 12 MPs, 38.1%
Liberals - 7 MPs, 33.9%
CCF - 13.3%
Reconstructionists - 13.3%

1935 - Prairies (55 MPs)
Liberals - 31 MPs, 35.3%
Socreds - 17 MPs, 20.7%
CCF - 4 MPs, 18.4%
Conservatives - 3 MPs, 20.9%
Reconstructionists - 2.6%


1940 - GTA (19 MPs)
Conservatives - 12 MPs, 48.7%
Liberals - 7 MPs, 45.7%
CCF - 4.8%

1940 - Prairies (55 MPs)
Liberals - 34 MPs, 43.1%
Socreds - 10 MPs, 11.6%
CCF - 6 MPs, 21.2%
Conservatives - 3 MPs, 17.7%
Others - 2 (both communist affiliates)


The CCF's 1944 victory in Saskatchewan and their 1943 near-victory in Ontario make themselves felt:

1945 - GTA (19 MPs)
Conservatives - 15 MPs, 43.4%
Liberals - 4 MPs, 34.5%
CCF - 17.1%
Socreds - 0.2%

1945 - Prairies (55 MPs)
CCF - 23 MPs, 32.3%
Liberals - 14 MPs, 30.0%
Socreds - 13 MPs, 13.4%
Conservatives - 5 MPs, 20.7%


The Liberals' big nationwide victory (still their best peacetime result) sees them edge ahead of the Tories in Toronto for the first time, but this doesn't last; Louis Saint-Laurent also presides over the last two Liberal victories on the Prairies:

1949 - GTA (19 MPs)
Liberals - 11 MPs, 40.2%
Conservatives - 7 MPs, 37.2%
CCF - 1 MP, 21.5%

1949 - Prairies (53 MPs)
Liberals - 31 MPs, 41.9%
Socreds - 10 MPs, 12.6%
CCF - 8 MPs, 25.9%
Conservatives - 4 MPs, 17.6%


1953 - GTA (22 MPs)
Conservatives - 11 MPs, 40.4%
Liberals - 10 MPs, 40.1%
CCF - 1 MP, 17.5%
Socreds - 0.2%

1953 - Prairies (48 MPs)
Liberals - 17 MPs, 37.5%
CCF - 14 MPs, 25.3%
Socreds - 11 MPs, 18.1%
Conservatives - 6 MPs, 17.0%


With Prairie boy John Diefenbaker now leading the Tories, the realignment slowly begins:

1957 - GTA (22 MPs)
Conservatives - 21 MPs, 51.5%
Liberals - 1 MP, 29.8%
CCF - 16.8%
Socreds - 1.6%

1957 - Prairies (48 MPs)
CCF - 15 MPs, 21.4%
Conservatives - 14 MPs, 28.6%
Socreds - 13 MPs, 21.3%
Liberals - 6 MPs, 28.2%


At this point, the two lines intersect and the Tories sweep both regions for the first (and last) time since 1917:

1958 - GTA (22 MPs)
Conservatives - 22 MPs, 58.9%
Liberals - 27.0%
CCF - 13.3%
Socreds - 0.4%

1958 - Prairies (48 MPs)
Conservatives - 47 MPs, 56.2%
CCF - 1 MP, 16.9%
Liberals - 18.1%
Socreds - 8.6%


Now things begin to look more like the modern day, as the Tories remain strong on the Prairies but plunge way down in favor of both the Liberals and New Democrats in Toronto:

1962 - GTA (22 MPs)
Liberals - 15 MPs, 38.6%
Conservatives - 4 MPs, 36.8%
New Democrats - 3 MPs, 23.4%
Socreds - 1.1%

1962 - Prairies (48 MPs)
Conservatives - 42 MPs, 44.9%
Liberals - 2 MPs, 24.0%
New Democrats - 2 MPs, 16.1%
Socreds - 2 MPs, 14.7%


1963 - GTA (22 MPs)
Liberals - 19 MPs, 47.7%
New Democrats - 2 MPs, 22.7%
Conservatives - 1 MP. 28.8%
Socreds - 0.6%

1963 - Prairies (48 MPs)
Conservatives - 41 MPs, 47.0%
Liberals - 3 MPs, 26.1%
Socreds - 2 MPs, 13.6%
New Democrats - 2 MPs, 13.1%


1965 - GTA (22 MPs)
Liberals - 17 MPs, 42.9%
New Democrats - 4 MPs, 27.0%
Conservatives - 1 MP, 29.7%
Socreds - 0.1%

1965 - Prairies (48 MPs)
Conservatives - 42 MPs, 45.3%
New Democrats - 3 MPs, 18.2%
Socreds - 2 MPs, 10.9%
Liberals - 1 MP, 25.4%


. . . and you can essentially fast-forward to the present day. The Tories do a little better in the GTA now, and the NDP a little worse, but that's mostly due to the increased population of the areas surrounding Metro Toronto itself (Mississauga, Brampton, Oakville, Markham, etc.), where the Tories tend to do better (both then and now) relative to the actual City. They've sometimes surpassed the Liberals in the years since (1979, 1984, 1988 & 2011), but only when they've won majorities (or near-majorities) nationwide. As for the Prairies, even with the increased urbanization there the Tories' dominance remains. The realignment that took place from the late 1950s to the early 1960s is arguably one of the most significant in our political history, yet one doesn't hear it mentioned that often now.

[DistingFlyer]

I find the "counterintuitiveness" of the final Conservative tally interesting--that is, I know about the "wasted vote in the West" arguments; but usually (and contrary to uniform-swing arguments), when the share increases into a vote plurality as it did, it increases more in the lower-tier seats than in the maxed-out strongholds.  Instead, there was no ceiling to how maxed-out the Western vote could get, while Ontario and Quebec basically went flat.  (Maybe the closest hint of what "could have happened" was in the Maritimes, particularly w/the NB seat gains and the Newf/Cape Breton share increases--even if in the latter case, translating those increases into gains proved to be a bridge too far.)

Yes, the biggest Tory swings tended to be in places where they did the least good: either on the Prairies, where they held most of the ridings already, or in ultra-secure Liberal areas in Atlantic Canada like Cape Breton or rural Newfoundland where it would take a huge shift for the ridings to turn over. The Liberals held up rather well in marginals - not only in Ontario but in Atlantic Canada too.

[DistingFlyer]

Earlier someone suggested that maybe Northern Ontario was starting to align itself with the Prairies as opposed to the rest of its own province. Obviously one can't yet say if that's happening, but the results there are rather curious:

Until the Depression, the Conservatives did well in the north, winning that region in every election from 1908 through 1930 (albeit by much smaller margins than they got provincewide). The 1935 election saw a huge Liberal lead, and the Tories lost some seats they have yet to win back.

The CCF pulled into second place in 1945, probably on the coattails of their successes there in 1943 at the provincial level; this didn't last, however, as the Tories surpassed them again in 1949 (though the Liberals still remained way ahead of both - this was by far their best region within Ontario throughout this period). Even the big Tory wins provincewide in 1957 & 1958 couldn't see them beat the Liberals here, and the Liberal lead became very large once again in 1962.

The 1965 election saw the NDP advance strongly, pulling ahead of the Tories into second place; this ranking of parties remained the same (the big Tory victory in 1984 excepted, when they jumped from third to first) until 1993, when the Rae government's unpopularity saw the NDP slip behind the Reformers and just barely ahead of the PCs. The NDP edged back into second place in 1997, but fell behind the Alliance again in 2000.

The Tory reunification in 2003 didn't do them any favors in this region, as the NDP leaped back into a strong second six months later. The 2008 election, which saw a Tory lead provincewide, saw them come second (taking Kenora for the first time since 1917), the NDP win, and the Liberals drop to third here. That order of parties remained the same in 2011.

The 2015 election saw the region revert to its usual form, with the Liberals winning and the Tories dropping to third place. If one wanted to sum up the region's tendencies in a single pithy phrase, it could be something like Northern Ontario still votes today the way the Prairies voted in the 1950s - that is, largely Liberals vs NDP.

This most recent election had the NDP fall to third and the Tories come second (winning Kenora again and coming second in six of eight ridings that they didn't take).

For the Tories to place higher than third here is rather surprising when you consider that they've only done so since the 1960s under the following circumstances: a nationwide (and provincewide) lead, and a very weak NDP at the provincial and federal levels, none of which apply in this case.

Additionally, it's the only region of Ontario that saw a notable increase in Tory support; they rose about 3% (by the most recent tally), while they flatlined in the East, dropped 2% in the West and dropped 4% in the GTA. In fact, the Liberal lead over the Tories in the GTA now exceeds their lead in the North, as does their lead provincewide (something that hasn't happened in a century, if ever).

As I said at the beginning, one can't even come close to saying that there's a long-term shift going on there, but the results are anomalous enough to make me very interested to see what happens in that region next time.

[DistingFlyer]

As I said at the beginning, one can't even come close to saying that there's a long-term shift going on there, but the results are anomalous enough to make me very interested to see what happens in that region next time.

And perhaps a leapfrog hint of that is in how Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke--probably the most "Northern/Rural-Prairie-esque" of the Southern Ontario ridings, demographically and economically--went from being a Liberal holdout in 1984 to a Cheryl Gallant Conservative stronghold in this century.  (Though the NDP's never really been a factor there, though there were hints of that provincially as recently as the 1970s)

Yes, and John Yakabuski was able to do the same thing at the provincial level: he made it the only riding to switch from Liberal to Tory in 2003, and turned it into the safest Conservative seat in the province in 2011 (as well as the safest seat for any party in 2011 & 2018). Personal popularity has a lot to do with both members' successes, I'm sure, but it could also be a hint of something more. Certainly the more populist tone of the post-reunion Tories (and their Alliance predecessors) seemed to do reasonably well in these areas, though curiously the Prairie-based populism of Diefenbaker did not work its charms here six decades ago.

[DistingFlyer]

Makes sense, Peterborough is a very good bellwether. Provincially, it's voted for the winning party since 1977.

How much swing would they need to get a majority?

A very tricky question to answer, but if one looks at the forty-nine ridings that the Tories came closest to winning they break down as follows: 34 Liberal, 9 New Democratic, 3 Bloc, 2 Green & 1 Independent. The forty-ninth seat is Mississauga – Lakeshore, with a Liberal margin of 11.1%.

If one looks only at the forty-nine Liberal ridings that the Tories came closest to winning, the forty-ninth is Don Valley North, with a Liberal margin of 15.0%.

Based on those two numbers, the national swing needed to produce 170 Tory MPs is somewhere between 5.6% and 7.5%; putting it another way, the Tories need a national lead of between 12.3% and 16.2% (putting them in a worse position than the Liberals ever found themselves in despite their domination of Quebec).


Now, I don't really believe that the Tories can't actually achieve a majority without a lead of that size; should they win, it will likely be to a big swing in Ontario, a moderate one in BC & the Maritimes, and probably just a small one in Quebec.

[DistingFlyer]

Re-count coming in Port Moody-Coquitlam

https://www.tricitynews.com/news/ndp-zarrillo-granted-vote-recount-in-port-moody-coquitlam-1.23991933?fbclid=IwAR1smWbLJAoYG71-qoPjQBnyo_ndl2Vdf_V61NApmdKgJxXISc1VOF9oZ6k

This is an NDP vs CPC seat, the CPC won by 153 votes but there seem to be some irregularities here.

There is 3 recounts in fact, Bloc also asked for recounts in Québec (Liberal hold by 325 votes) and Hochelaga (Liberal gain by 328 votes).

Validated results still have yet to be posted for Labrador & Nunavut; this makes five ridings outstanding for final figures.

[DistingFlyer]

Ipsos conducted an exit poll which included a question about how you would vote under straight PR. Actual poll results only added up to 95%, so I pro-rated the extra 5% by vote share. Seat change is vs actual FPTP results.

Tory: 31.6%, 107 seats (-14)
Liberal: 27.4%, 93 seats (-64)
NDP: 21.0%, 71 seats (+47)
Green: 8.4%, 28 seats (+25)
Bloc: 7.4%, 25 seats (-7)
People's: 4.2%, 14 seats (+14)

Tl;dr: PPC enters parliament (or narrowly misses out if we have a 5% threshhold), Liberals would have tremendous difficulty forming government on their own, and would need the support of the NDP + Bloc and/or Greens to pass anything. We probably see a coalition or at the very least a more formal arrangement with the NDP.

Unsurprisingly this confirms that the Singh Surge was undercut by f**king tactical voting.

Tory & PPC figures here add up almost exactly to their actual combined share of the vote; Liberal & NDP total figures are pretty close too; Bloc is pretty much the same; Greens about 2% different. Obviously there's a margin of error in any poll, so these figures matching so closely is a bit of a surprise.

[DistingFlyer]

While we wait for the last few counts to be validated, here is the record vote share recorded in each province (party figures get more uncertain as one goes back farther, so there may be an instance in the very early years that ought to be here - nonetheless, this should do):

Newfoundland - 71.9% by the Liberals in 1949
Nova Scotia - 62.0% by the Liberals in 2015
New Brunswick - 59.3% by the Conservatives in 1925
Prince Edward Island - 61.3% by the Conservatives in 1958

Quebec - 72.7% by the Liberals in 1917

Ontario - 62.9% by the Conservatives in 1917

Manitoba - 79.7% by the Conservatives in 1917
Saskatchewan - 74.1% by the Conservatives in 1917
Alberta - 69.0% by the Conservatives in 2019
British Columbia - 71.6% by the Conservatives in 1891

One record broken last week (Alberta, last set in 1984), and one broken four years ago (Nova Scotia, set probably by the anti-Confederation Liberals in 1867).

[DistingFlyer]

1917 really was one crazy election. Conscription was the ultimate wedge issue.

Yes indeed, though - to my surprise, looking over the figures - the Tories' biggest margin in that election was 79.2% in Brandon; had expected this figure to exceed comfortably Damien Kurek's 80.4% margin of last week, but apparently it didn't. (The 89.6% of the vote won in Brandon exceeded the 85.5% in Battle River – Crowfoot, of course.)

The biggest Liberal win was in Bellechasse, where they got 97.7% of the vote to 1.6% for the Tories - a 96.1% margin of victory, that hasn't been exceeded by anybody since.

In the early days, one sometimes saw a high-profile member opposed by an independent or maybe a token Liberal/Tory, and the margins could be very lopsided. I can't be certain that those two shares of the vote weren't exceeded in one of the first few General Elections, though if they were it wouldn't have been by very much . . .

[DistingFlyer]

One region of the country that wasn't affected much by the huge swings nationwide was the Maritime provinces:

In Nova Scotia, the Tories went from a 2% deficit in 1911 to a 2% lead in 1917;
in New Brunswick, they went from a 2% deficit in 1911 to a 13% lead in 1917; and
in PEI, they went from a 1% lead in 1911 to a 1% deficit in 1917 (apart from Quebec, the only province to record a swing against them).

Overall, the region went from a 2% Liberal lead in 1911 to a 6% Tory one in 1917. Compare that to Ontario, where the Tories' lead swelled from 13% to 30%, and out West, where it jumped from a 4% deficit to a 44% lead. Quebec, on the other hand, saw a 2% lead plunge to a 47% deficit.

[DistingFlyer]

1917 really was one crazy election. Conscription was the ultimate wedge issue.

Yes indeed, though - to my surprise, looking over the figures - the Tories' biggest margin in that election was 79.2% in Brandon; had expected this figure to exceed comfortably Damien Kurek's 80.4% margin of last week, but apparently it didn't. (The 89.6% of the vote won in Brandon exceeded the 85.5% in Battle River – Crowfoot, of course.)

The biggest Liberal win was in Bellechasse, where they got 97.7% of the vote to 1.6% for the Tories - a 96.1% margin of victory, that hasn't been exceeded by anybody since.

In the early days, one sometimes saw a high-profile member opposed by an independent or maybe a token Liberal/Tory, and the margins could be very lopsided. I can't be certain that those two shares of the vote weren't exceeded in one of the first few General Elections, though if they were it wouldn't have been by very much . . .

Which interestingly is now the safest Tory seat in Quebec!

The 1917 Liberal lead was much greater in rural Quebec than in Montreal; a reflection, I suppose, of the significant anglophone population at the time (province-wide, the ratio of French to English was 2 to 1, as opposed to the 10 to 1 that it is now).

The three Tory ridings that survived the Liberal sweep were all in Montreal: St. Anne, St. Antoine & St. Lawrence – St. George. The Montreal vote was 59% Liberal to 38% Conservative, while the rest of the province went 80% Liberal to 18% Conservative (and that's with a dozen or so Liberals winning unopposed). The 1921 election saw Montreal get closer into line with the rest of the province, as it voted Liberal 71% to 18% while the remainder went Liberal 70% to 18%.

Six years previously, Montreal had gone Conservative 49% to 37%, while the rest of the province remained Liberal 51% to 49%.

If you told a political observer a century ago that the Tories would not only become a presence in Quebec again, but that they'd do so in the rural areas, I doubt he'd have believed you.

How Quebec voted in subsequent good years for the Tories is as follows:

1930
Montreal - 54% Liberal, 43% Conservative
Remainder - 53% Liberal, 45% Conservative

1958
Montreal - 47% Conservative, 46% Liberal
Remainder - 51% Conservative, 45% Liberal

1984
Montreal - 42% Conservative, 39% Liberal
Remainder - 54% Conservative, 34% Liberal

1988
Montreal - 44% Conservative, 39% Liberal
Remainder - 57% Conservative, 26% Liberal


To run down some of the 1917 equivalents to presently-held Tory ridings, we see the following:

Beauce - Liberal unopposed
Bellechasse - Liberal wins by 96%
Chicoutimi – Saguenay - Liberal wins by 84%
Drummond – Arthabaska - Liberal unopposed
Kamouraska - Liberal wins by 90%
Levis - Liberal wins by 68%
L'Islet - Liberal unopposed
Lotbiniere - Liberal wins by 92%
Megantic - Liberal unopposed
Montmagny - Liberal wins by 28% (Tories third, 62% behind the Liberals)
Portneuf - Liberal unopposed
Quebec County - Liberal wins by 80%
Quebec West - Liberal wins by 87%
Richmond – Wolfe - Liberal wins by 60%

So not only do we see a clean Liberal sweep, but by greater margins in every riding than in the province as a whole (where they won by 47%).

[DistingFlyer]

Maybe I'm missing something here, but I'm still surprised by Edmonton's reversion to the Tories (Calgary wasn't surprising, but I figured there was a chance in the more urban core ridings). At the provincial level (and yes, I'm well-aware of the differences between federal and provincial politics), Edmonton was still very much a fortress for the NDP. Vote splitting can certainly not be blamed for the Liberals losing Edmonton Centre considering the NDP vote share dropped by almost 4% from 2015. What explains the divergence between federal and provincial politics in Edmonton? I suppose more specifically, what does a federal Conservative/provincial NDP voter look like (particularly in Edmonton)? And we're talking about elections only 6 months apart, so not exactly far apart.

The Conservatives are the "party of Alberta." Also provincial conservative austerity hurts Alberta more than federal Conservative austerity would.  The right-wing polls about 10 points behind the federal Conservatives.

In general, the federal NDP does much less well in the four Western provinces than its provincial wings:

British Columbia - highest provincial vote: 45% (1979); highest federal vote: 37% (1988)
Alberta - highest provincial vote: 41% (2015); highest federal vote: 17% (1988)
Saskatchewan - highest provincial vote: 55% (1971); highest federal vote: 44% (1945)
Manitoba - highest provincial vote: 49% (2003); highest federal vote: 34% (1980)


Lots of different reasons for this, of course, but two main ones come to mind:

Firstly, and probably most importantly, the provincial parties are much more moderate than the federal (or Ontario) NDP is. Rachel Notley's recent support for pipelines is one example, as is Roy Romanow's heavy deficit-cutting in the 1990s and Gary Doer's government in the 2000s. The BC party is a bit more left-leaning than the ones on the Prairies, but still less than the federal party is.

Secondly, ever since Diefenbaker there's been a strong strain of Prairie populism in the Tories that's allowed them to do very well out West; one started to see, especially in Saskatchewan, many people who voted CCF/NDP provincially & PC federally. Since the reunification of the conservative parties in 2003, this appeal has been even stronger, allowing the Tories to have their two best (peacetime) Prairie results (62% & 64%) in recent years (2011 & 2019) - even better than under the Diefenbaker & Mulroney sweeps.


(One curious instance of provincial & federal trends briefly paralleling and then diverging is Winnipeg: in 1988, the provincial NDP government was heavily defeated and fell to third, while the Liberals took a strong second and dominated the capital. The federal election eight months later saw a similar change, as the Liberals jumped to second place in the province and did extremely well in Winnipeg. However, while at the provincial level the Liberals quickly fell back again and haven't elected more than three MLAs in a general election for the last quarter-century, at the federal level they've remained strong in Winnipeg, generally placing first or second in most ridings there.)

[DistingFlyer]

Nunavut is still the lone holdout for official counts; the recounts are still ongoing too.

While we wait, here are the best individual results (in terms of percentage majority) for the two big parties since 1896:

Liberals
1896 - Wilfrid Laurier wins Quebec East by 2191 (52.0%)
1900 - Wilfrid Laurier wins Quebec East by 2772 (62.7%)
1904 - Charles Fitzpatrick wins Quebec County by 2174 (80.0%)
1908 - Henri Severin Beland wins Beauce by 3899 (91.4%)
1911 - Joseph Demers wins St. Johns & Iberville by 1909 (56.7%)
1917 - Charles Fournier wins Bellechasse by 3692 (96.1%)
1921 - Joseph Demers wins St. Johns – Iberville by 6158 (87.0%)
1925 - Paul Mercier wins St. Henri by 8990 (61.3%)
1926 - Edouard-Charles St.-Pere wins Hochelaga by 13809 (71.3%)
1930 - Sam Jacobs wins Cartier by 6303 (52.6%)
1935 - Edouard Lacroix wins Beauce by 13367 (77.9%)
1940 - Peter Bercovitch wins Cartier by 15837 (77.1%)
1945 - Jean-Francois Pouliot wins Temiscouata by 8418 (63.1%)
1949 - Ches Carter wins Burin – Burgeo by 11537 (84.6%)
1953 - Alcide Cote wins Saint-Jean – Iberville – Napierville by 14087 (76.9%)
1957 - Jack Pickersgill wins Bonavista – Twillingate by 7811 (74.4%)
1958 - Jack Pickersgill wins Bonavista – Twillingate by 9347 (51.9%)
1962 - Ches Carter wins Burin – Burgeo by 9370 (59.7%)
1963 - Ches Carter wins Burin – Burgeo by 9728 (66.6%)
1965 - Ches Carter wins Burin – Burgeo by 7990 (52.7%)
1968 - Pierre Trudeau wins Mount Royal by 35437 (86.0%)
1972 - Pierre Trudeau wins Mount Royal by 32429 (70.9%)
1974 - Don Jamieson wins Burin – Burgeo by 11276 (68.3%)
1979 - Pierre Trudeau wins Mount Royal by 39542 (78.0%)
1980 - Monique Begin wins Saint-Leonard – Anjou by 38487 (73.9%)
1984 - Charles Caccia wins Davenport by 7700 (31.2%)
1988 - Don Boudria wins Glengarry – Prescott – Russell by 25763 (51.7%)
1993 - Sheila Finestone wins Mount Royal by 36274 (76.0%)
1997 - Sergio Marchi wins York West by 18401 (63.7%)
2000 - Irwin Cotler wins Mount Royal by 30629 (75.1%)
2004 - Irwin Cotler wins Mount Royal by 25399 (67.0%)
2006 - Irwin Cotler wins Mount Royal by 17627 (47.7%)
2008 - Scott Simms wins Bonavista – Gander – Grand Falls – Windsor by 15735 (55.0%)
2011 - Gerry Byrne wins Humber – St. Barbe – Baie Verte by 9560 (31.9%)
2015 - Judy Foote wins Bonavista – Burin – Trinity by 25170 (71.7%)
2019 - Patricia Lattanzio wins Saint-Leonard – Saint-Michel by 22443 (49.4%)

Conservatives
1896 - Clarke Wallace wins York West by 4068 (60.6%)
1900 - Edward Kidd wins Carleton by 727 (29.1%)
1904 - John Barr wins Dufferin by 1286 (44.1%)
1908 - John Barr wins Dufferin by 1443 (47.5%)
1911 - William Maclean wins York South by 5293 (58.2%)
1917 - Howard Whidden wins Brandon by 10136 (79.2%)
1921 - Joseph Harris wins York East by 6538 (35.4%)
1925 - Charles Bell wins Hamilton West by 11224 (67.9%)
1926 - Joseph Harris wins Toronto – Scarborough by 11382 (61.5%)
1930 - Robert White wins Mount Royal by 13449 (50.9%)
1935 - Robert White wins St. Antoine – Westmount by 5683 (25.9%)
1940 - Denton Massey wins Greenwood by 7313 (28.6%)
1945 - Arthur Ross wins Souris by 3537 (33.2%)
1949 - Clair Casselman wins Grenville – Dundas by 3348 (23.8%)
1953 - William Blair wins Lanark by 4713 (29.8%)
1957 - Howard Green wins Vancouver Quadra by 16296 (48.0%)
1958 - Douglas Harkness wins Calgary North by 25446 (59.2%)
1962 - John Diefenbaker wins Prince Albert by 14103 (54.6%)
1963 - John Diefenbaker wins Prince Albert by 14451 (57.9%)
1965 - Frank Fane wins Vegreville by 10012 (57.4%)
1968 - Jack Horner wins Crowfoot by 11725 (52.2%)
1972 - Jack Horner wins Crowfoot by 16076 (65.1%)
1974 - Jack Horner wins Crowfoot by 14571 (61.0%)
1979 - Don Mazankowski wins Vegreville by 22600 (67.5%)
1980 - Don Mazankowski wins Vegreville by 21309 (62.1%)
1984 - Don Mazankowski wins Vegreville by 28687 (70.8%)
1988 - Brian Mulroney wins Charlevoix by 27736 (65.8%)
1993 - Jean Charest wins Sherbrooke by 8210 (14.4%); Bob Mills wins Red Deer by 23870 (48.5%)
1997 - Elsie Wayne wins Saint John by 16615 (47.2%); Jack Ramsay wins Crowfoot by 23910 (55.5%)
2000 - Norm Doyle wins St. John's East by 9771 (22.0%); Monte Solberg wins Medicine Hat by 26742 (63.8%)
2004 - Kevin Sorenson wins Crowfoot by 34034 (72.5%)
2006 - Kevin Sorenson wins Crowfoot by 39335 (75.2%)
2008 - Kevin Sorenson wins Crowfoot by 35559 (74.1%)
2011 - Kevin Sorenson wins Crowfoot by 39310 (74.8%)
2015 - Kevin Sorenson wins Battle River – Crowfoot by 42047 (71.5%)
2019 - Damien Kurek wins Battle River – Crowfoot by 50124 (80.4%)

Quebec was the Liberal fortress from 1896, almost single-handedly putting native son Wilfrid Laurier in office and providing some huge personal majorities for Grit MPs. Once Newfoundland joined Canada a half-century later, the rural part of the province also supplied some very big wins as well. Even with Liberal weakening in rural Quebec, Montreal has remained very strong, and Toronto has gradually become so in the last few decades.

As for the Tories, Macdonald's National Policy turned Ontario from an even-to-Liberal province in the early days to a Conservative bastion for many decades, keeping the Liberals in a minority there for nearly sixty years (1878 to 1935). Only unusual circumstances (the war issue in 1917 & a populist Prairie leader in 1945) prevented the safest Tory riding from being in Ontario (or wealthy Anglo areas of Montreal - 1930 & 1935). Another Prairie populist, Diefenbaker, had a more lasting effect, as the best Conservative results since then have been in that part of the country. Only the intervention of the Reformers, starting in 1988 where they elected nobody but shaved down some Tory majorities (and handed four seats to the NDP) and ending in 2004 with the party merger, saw anything different.

[DistingFlyer]

I don't think it's entirely fair to compare federal and provincial results. The Western provinces are basically a 2-party system now, very different from the federal multi-party system. I wasn't just comparing the provincial NDP to federal NDP results. I was looking at the collapse of the Liberals as well. Like I said before, I would've figured the Liberals could've at least held Edmonton Centre.

I suppose it makes some sense that if college-educated women are the primary swing voters that someone like Rachel Notley would be a very strong leader for the NDP (not just for the fact of becoming the first left-of-centre government in Alberta in generations) and as evidenced by keeping her on as leader even in defeat. But to be fair though, isn't almost everyone in Alberta pro-oil and pro-pipeline? I read that the new NDP MP for Edmonton Strathcona is willing to work with the Liberals (although apparently not willing to join the Cabinet) and she's not really in line with the federal NDP on those specific issues.

Also, just curious, but is there any precedent in Canada for a government to have an opposition MP in Cabinet?

There's Borden's Unionist Government, where he brought a few pro-conscription Liberals alongside (and saw them subsequently run under the Unionist rather than Liberal banner in 1917), but otherwise no.

[DistingFlyer]

(One curious instance of provincial & federal trends briefly paralleling and then diverging is Winnipeg: in 1988, the provincial NDP government was heavily defeated and fell to third, while the Liberals took a strong second and dominated the capital. The federal election eight months later saw a similar change, as the Liberals jumped to second place in the province and did extremely well in Winnipeg. However, while at the provincial level the Liberals quickly fell back again and haven't elected more than three MLAs in a general election for the last quarter-century, at the federal level they've remained strong in Winnipeg, generally placing first or second in most ridings there.)

Countering that, the federal NDP's 1980 best result in Manitoba happened when there was an unpopular provincial PC government--ditto with Sask and (using the Socred proxy) BC in 1988...

Yes, that's true; provincial governments' popularity getting reflected in federal results is especially strong in BC, where the NDP does well (at the federal level) only when they're not in power provincially. In addition to Saskatchewan in 1988, you can see it in 1984 as well: in spite of a big nationwide victory for Brian Mulroney, in Saskatchewan the Tories only made small gains (and actually did less well than in 1979, which was pre-Devine).

In the 1990s, one saw this happen across a couple provinces: the NDP governments of BC & Ontario were extremely unpopular (though the BC party managed to squeak in a second term anyway), and the federal party was nearly destroyed in those two provinces. The Romanow government in Saskatchewan, however, while it did some controversial things, remained popular enough to win another decade in power and keep a respectable total of MPs during that time.

Popularity of a recently-elected government can also be a boost federally: their best-ever showing in Saskatchewan was in 1945 (just edging out 1988), which I'm sure had to do with Douglas' provincial victory a year earlier. The NDP's modest gains in BC in 1972 were also probably a reflection of Dave Barrett's win two months before. Obviously Alberta in 2015 is an exception to this, as the federal party did very poorly at year's end, as in Manitoba throughout the Doer years (particularly 2000).

[DistingFlyer]

Looking at long winning streaks in particular provinces/regions, here is how things compare:

Conservatives in Ontario beat the Liberals in fourteen consecutive federal elections (1878 to 1930).

The Liberal streak in Quebec comes with an asterisk or two, as in 1891 & 1911 the Tories outpolled them while electing fewer members. If you go by MPs only, then the Liberal run lasted from 1891 to 1957 - seventeen consecutive elections. If you remove 1891 & 1911 from this period, then it lasts from 1917 to 1957 - a still-impressive eleven-election streak, and one with generally bigger margins than the Tories enjoyed in Ontario (one reason why Liberal governments became the norm after 1896).

As for the West (or the Prairies), it gets a bit more complicated: multi-party races became normal much earlier than elsewhere, sometimes with informal pacts (like the Liberals & Progressives in the 1920s) making vote shares tricky. Other times, like 1957, you have a party coming fourth in votes (the CCF, at 22%) electing the largest number of MPs (22). The Tory split in the 1990s also complicates things.

If the criteria are getting both the largest number of votes and electing the largest number of MPs, the Conservative (or conservative) streak on the Prairies begins in 1958 rather than 1957, and lasts to the present day if you include the Reform & Alliance victories during the Chretien years. That's a run of twenty consecutive elections (so far). If you don't include the Reformers, then the run lasts from 1958 to 1988, a still-high tally of eleven elections.

If one includes BC and looks at the entire Western region, the conservative run begins in 1972 and lasts until the present - fifteen elections with probably more to come. If one doesn't include the Reformers and just goes by capital-C Conservatives, then the run is only six elections (1972 to 1988 and 2004 to 2019).

Finally, my own region of Atlantic Canada. Although it has generally tended Liberal since Confederation (and especially since Newfoundland's admittance), it's also been quite willing to go Tory, sometimes even against the grain of a Liberal government (as in 1896, 1925, 1926, 1968, 1972 & 1997, and to a degree 1965 & 1974). For that reason, the longest streak of victories for any party is five (Conservatives from 1878 to 1896 and Liberals from 1935 to 1953).

[DistingFlyer]

Popularity of a recently-elected government can also be a boost federally: their best-ever showing in Saskatchewan was in 1945 (just edging out 1988), which I'm sure had to do with Douglas' provincial victory a year earlier. The NDP's modest gains in BC in 1972 were also probably a reflection of Dave Barrett's win two months before. Obviously Alberta in 2015 is an exception to this, as the federal party did very poorly at year's end, as is Manitoba throughout the Doer years (particularly 2000).

Re Manitoba, any "particularly" in 2000 probably had more to do with federal than provincial patterns (it being a sloppy-seconds election for Alexa and all); but they held all of their seats, and a lot of the shifts (much as in Saskatchewan) had more to do with the broader federal ReformAllianceConservative shifts that have brought us to this monolithic-blue-bloc day.  In fact, I'd argue that Doer's steady hand at the official-opposition tiller actually made, in a reverse from 1988, the NDP *overperform* in Manitoba relative to the federal pattern in 1993 (even if said pattern was so dismal, it was only good enough to save Bill Blaikie's seat), and turned that into four seats in 1997, which was double the 1988 tally...

Agreed - I was just illustrating some instances where a popular NDP provincial government (or unpopular non-NDP one) didn't translate into much of an improvement at the federal level, while in other instances it did. Certainly the NDP's weak state during this time made such a thing very hard to do, especially with the Reformers taking up the Prairie populist banner so effectively; this also helps to explain the party's poor Alberta showing in 2015. It also ties back to a point made earlier about those provincial parties being far more moderate than the federal one: many voters there who support leaders like Rachel Notley, Roy Romanow or Gary Doer may be more inclined to vote Liberal (or even Tory) at the national level than NDP.

[DistingFlyer]

Nunavut's official count has finally come in, and it looks like all three recounts have been dropped.

Have updated an earlier chart illustrating safe vs. moderate vs. marginal constituencies over the years (Reply #2020, https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=305434.msg7026207#msg7026207); changed a couple figures for 2019, added acclamations columns & extended the data back to 1896.

Have also updated the 2019 maps posted earlier (Reply #2000, https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=305434.msg7025705#msg7025705) - generally just some subtle shading changes, as well as fixing two stupid mistakes I made.

Finally, have updated the set of federal & provincial electoral data files (https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1Pa-73KSfj_nmezJ0WKTKrjlDW6RFUJJR) - have added Newfoundland, BC & New Brunswick, and of course have put 2019's data into the federal file. Have not put pre-1949 data into the federal file yet, as some of the figures are still a little less certain (particularly pre-1917) than I'd like them to be, but may put those in later.

[DistingFlyer]

Are the official result being posted somewhere? I couldn't find them with a google search.

Use this link: http://enr.elections.ca/DownloadResults.aspx