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Author Topic: Canadian Election 2019  (Read 189258 times)
adma
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« Reply #50 on: June 26, 2019, 07:04:43 AM »

The Greens could focus on Halifax - but it would probably have a similar result, just with lower vote totals for the Grits and NDP. Fredericton is far and away their best target in the Atlantics as a whole so I'd be interested to see a poll of that.

How about Charlottetown?
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adma
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« Reply #51 on: June 26, 2019, 07:06:19 AM »

In Regina-Lewvan, NDP is planning to nominate Jigar Patel, a local grocery store owner. Probably paves the way for a Liberal surge in the riding, they have a good candidate in Winter Fedyk, a prominent public servant in the city.

I'd be surprised.  The Liberals haven't had deep roots in Saskatchewan since at least 'Trudeaumania' in 1968.  Even when they won 5 seats in 1993 it was mostly due to the split on the right and the decline of the NDP in Saskatchewan, even as the NDP held 5 of their ten seats there in that election.

The Liberals were only behind the Tories and the NDP by 8% in 2015. With a weak NDP candidate, the Liberals could pick up a good chunk of the folks who voted for the NDP in the past.

As somebody who lives in SK and is an NDP supporter, I can't see Patel doing nearly as well as Weir did in 2015, and even the NDP riding association president basically said that she couldn't see the NDP keeping the seat. In Regina-Lewvan, I anticipate a lot of NDP -> Liberal swing voters this year, as the NDP has basically given up on the seat itself.

Though the "local factor" of Scheer's leadership could just as well boost the Cons, instead.
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adma
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« Reply #52 on: June 26, 2019, 09:31:49 PM »

I wonder if Ralph Goodale can hold on Regina.

If he could survive the Iggy bust, he could survive the Scheer bump.  (Then again, Jim Bradley in Ontario was thought indestructable...until last year.)
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adma
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« Reply #53 on: July 13, 2019, 07:45:14 PM »

Rosemont is the only seat they can hold (it's probably their best shot in Quebec and the one seat they're favoured in) but they'll lose the other two, probably both to the Bloc.

With Steven Guilbeault running for the Libs in Laurier-Ste Marie, I wouldn't assume "probably both to the Bloc"--and in general, I don't know how well positioned the Bloc is these days as an "urban left" proxy option, particularly given how provincially, QS has swallowed up the PQ's urban-left base.  (And because of the QS factor, I'd probably also expect an echo of the Outremont byelection's NDP overperformance-in-defeat.  Overperformance relative to the conventional wisdom that the NDP's reverted to a single-digit-oblivion Quebec status quo, that is.)
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adma
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« Reply #54 on: July 15, 2019, 06:19:36 PM »

The Bloc vote in Laurier Ste. Marie was very inflated in 2011 and 2015 because Gilles Duceppe was the candidate. It’s actually a very cosmopolitan socially liberal bohemian riding that went massively Quebec Solidaire provincially. With the NDP running the wife of the very popular Qs MNA. I suspect that it will be very much an NDP/Liberal contest and the BQ won’t be much of a factor.

Oh? I thought it was more working class, like Beaulieu's riding.

Beaulieu’s riding would be sort of a Montreal equivalent of Scarborough Southwest. Laurier Ste. Marie more like A Montreal version of Davenport

I think Boulerice's Rosemont is more Davenport-y.  Laurier-Ste Marie *might* be a bit more like Toronto Centre, complete with gay village, a Regent Park/St James Town-esque element in Jeanne-Mance, and a Ryerson/George Brown element in UQAM (and I feel safer saying that now that Suze Morrison's been elected provincially).

The thing to remember about Duceppe is that he was byelected in the first place as a sort of pre-Bloc independent-nationalist NDP/social-democrat proxy.  And he electorally sustained himself within his constituency by being on the Bloc's left, until he was "out-lefted" by the Orange Crush.

It's all an echo of how the Franco-cultural-class urban left used to be the heart and soul of the provincial PQ, but have these days decamped for QS.  And as for the Bloc, its current "base" is probably more about so-called suburban disgruntlement than urban progressivism--and in some ways, I'd even suggest that La Pointe-de-l'Île relative to Beaulieu probably has more in common with Etobicoke North relative to Doug Ford.

(Then there's the remaining NDP seat, Hochelaga--if Beaulieu's seat is SSW, Hochelaga's Beaches-East York.  At least, if one blew out the Beaches on behalf of a gigantic Olympic stadium or something)
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adma
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« Reply #55 on: July 19, 2019, 09:12:41 PM »

https://t.co/x89C1D93Sa

First riding poll of the campaign is from Mainstreet in Niagara Centre. Liberal Vance Badawey (39%) leads Con April Jeffs by 11 (incl. undecideds), former NDP MP Malcolm Allen who was believed to be the favourite came third on 17%. Last time, Badawey unseated Allen by 4.

While he's running again, given how his party's polling and how he no longer has incumbent advantage, I think it's jumping the gun to say Allen was believed to be the favourite (even if leftish social media a la Babble would like to think so)
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adma
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« Reply #56 on: July 20, 2019, 10:21:50 AM »

https://t.co/x89C1D93Sa

First riding poll of the campaign is from Mainstreet in Niagara Centre. Liberal Vance Badawey (39%) leads Con April Jeffs by 11 (incl. undecideds), former NDP MP Malcolm Allen who was believed to be the favourite came third on 17%. Last time, Badawey unseated Allen by 4.

While he's running again, given how his party's polling and how he no longer has incumbent advantage, I think it's jumping the gun to say Allen was believed to be the favourite (even if leftish social media a la Babble would like to think so)

There are a lot of those people who still think the NDP will have net gains. But in fairness, a lot of people on EPP didn't expect this either (I thought Allen was able to win)

People think that? That's optimistic. The NDP are in a really rough spot electorally right now.

I don't see how it can happen really. It would either involve the NDP winning back seats like Ottawa Centre, Halifax or Northwest Territories, all of which should stay Liberal, or the NDP regaining their position against the Conservatives and holding up in the West, assuming they don't recover in Quebec. None of those look possible or likely.

Never doubt hyper partisans ability to talk up their chances though. If you listened to them you could expect Liberal wins in Lethbridge and Louis Saint Laurent and Conservative wins in Lac Saint Louis and Victoria.

I think some of the "net gains" wishful-think argument might involve stuff like "Singhburbia" or wherever Horwathmania reaped Ontario rewards in 2018.

Incidentally, it's worth noting that in Niagara Centre (or Welland, as it was then known), Allen forced Liberal incumbent John Maloney into 3rd place in 2008--and then in the 2011 rematch, the Iggy disaster relegated Maloney to a *really* distant 14% as both NDP and CPC were 40%+.  So maybe a bit of deja vu re Allen's current polling underperformance.
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adma
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« Reply #57 on: July 23, 2019, 08:25:09 PM »

and some they've won provincially that I would be quite shocked if they win this fall. 

Etobicoke North for one, I presume.
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adma
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« Reply #58 on: July 24, 2019, 06:17:40 AM »

and some they've won provincially that I would be quite shocked if they win this fall. 

Etobicoke North for one, I presume.

Yeah I am pretty sure the Tories won't win that, although I think the swing in their favour will probably be more favourable than most ridings in the province, but still a lot of ground to overcome and not sure what riding view is on Ford now.  He has dropped massively provincewide, so expect some drop there, but also that is the turf of Ford Nation so probably polling better than in most parts of the province but doubt it will be nearly enough for Tories to win in this fall.

Though one wild card in Ford Nation turf: Renata Ford's PPC candidacy.
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adma
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« Reply #59 on: July 26, 2019, 08:25:36 PM »

Re the Cons: remember, of course, that NC is basically an Obama/Trump type of riding, so at this point it's not *too* surprising if they've absorbed a bit of the "populist" end of NDP support.

And re the NDP in Whitby: remember that the *provincial* party somewhat surprisingly came within 10 points of winning last year.

Libs: to be only barely behind in Whitby after everything *is* a good sign for them.  And in the end, I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes a "stealth retain" for the Libs...
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adma
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« Reply #60 on: July 27, 2019, 05:22:45 PM »


Sven Robinson is outspoken and probably could get media attention and visibility.

Excellent idea, if the idea is to actually kill off the NDP for real this time.

Not that it's *good* or anything, but I suppose one can *very* inexactly compare him to Corbyn (i.e. hard-left senior citizen figurehead)
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adma
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« Reply #61 on: August 03, 2019, 05:40:37 AM »

Internal polling at this stage needs to be taken with a grain of salt the size of Canada...

Indeed.

Boulerice is the only Dipper who I see winning in Quebec. Don't give me any of the Brosseau/Caron/Dusseault strong incumbent stuff. That won't save them now (although obviously if Boulerice wasn't a strong incumbent, it could easily be 0)

And with that in mind, I still feel there might be a particularly sharp "Montreal vs ROQ" divide re what's left of NDP support; so even in open seats like Hochelaga and LSM, the Dippers could be poised to far outpoll Brosseau, or just generally hold their base better.  In the midst of urban cosmopolitanism, they're not as hung up about turbans.
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adma
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« Reply #62 on: August 08, 2019, 06:49:28 PM »

  Both Hudak in 2014 and Harper in 2006 started with similar numbers, while Hudak just re-enforced the negative image thus his poor showing while Harper improved it dramatically thus won.

I don't know if Harper improved it dramatically so much as the Paul Martin Liberals' negatives exploded mid-campaign through sponsorship scandal revelations.  (Except, maybe, as regards the CPC's breakthrough in Quebec that year)
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adma
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« Reply #63 on: August 09, 2019, 06:49:40 AM »

  Both Hudak in 2014 and Harper in 2006 started with similar numbers, while Hudak just re-enforced the negative image thus his poor showing while Harper improved it dramatically thus won.

I don't know if Harper improved it dramatically so much as the Paul Martin Liberals' negatives exploded mid-campaign through sponsorship scandal revelations.  (Except, maybe, as regards the CPC's breakthrough in Quebec that year)

Actually Harper was damaged fairly badly by bozo eruptions and hidden agenda in 2004 so he started with fairly negative numbers.  His 5 promises in many ways helped him as well as the Liberals also did almost nothing before Christmas assuming no one would pay attention while Harper was active.  On Nanos poll tracker in December, Liberals maintained lead, but on best PM Harper pulled ahead before his party did.  Off course Martin ran a disastrous campaign too so it was a combination of both.  I think if Liberals won an okay campaign they could have barely held on and Tories likewise if a medicore would have lost.

But "hidden agenda" matters still dogged Harper in '06, to the point where it continued to hold back gains in places like the GTA--at that point, national support for the Cons was more "probationary" than anything.
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adma
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« Reply #64 on: August 12, 2019, 06:29:45 PM »


I think after past split in the 90s, plus more recent one in Alberta, most on right have learned you cannot win unless you are united under one banner and most on right loathe Trudeau so desire to remove Trudeau trumps everything else.  Still there is a strong libertarian and right wing populist element in the party, after all Bernier nearly won, so if Scheer loses and doesn't stay on, its not out of the realm the next leader won't be in this mode, but no one I can think of at the moment who fits that mold and has high enough name recognition to win.

*harrumph* *harrumph* Doug Ford, except that at this point his "high enough name recognition" isn't exactly of the winning sort...
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adma
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« Reply #65 on: August 13, 2019, 06:35:42 PM »


In 1974, 1997 and 2000 the federal NDP suffered heavy losses in BC because of the unpopularity of the BC NDP governments in those times.

For BC in 1993 and 2000, NDP performed badly coast to coast so while BC NDP probably did hurt federal counterparts, it wasn't as obvious, however the case in 1997 was somewhat stronger as NDP bombed in the four largest provinces (hadn't ever done well in Quebec or Alberta at the point, while bad memories of Rae still persisted in Ontario), but they did okay in the smaller provinces.

Actually, I seem to recall that the Harcourt government *was* beset by enough controversy by 1993 so as to affect federal results--which together with Rae in Ontario, made for a 1-2 whammy that almost obliterated the federal NDP.  (Whereas in Saskatchewan, the only province with a "popular" NDP provincial government, they kept 5 of the 9 seats they were able to salvage nationwide.)

It's a wonder that DL didn't mention the NDP in 1993--it wasn't all about Audrey McLaughlin's inadequacy; in fact, that is *the* classic case of unpopular provincial governments crippling the federal party.

Also, in 1988, the messy collapse of the provincial NDP government in Manitoba adversely affected the party's federal results, with two of their longtime central Winnipeg strongholds falling to the Liberals.  (Which brings us to an inverse matter: that of the federal Liberals in 1988 being *boosted* by popular provincial parties--Carstairs-mania in Winnipeg, and the Peterson government in Ontario, especially)
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adma
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« Reply #66 on: August 14, 2019, 06:03:56 AM »

Also, in 1988, the messy collapse of the provincial NDP government in Manitoba adversely affected the party's federal results, with two of their longtime central Winnipeg strongholds falling to the Liberals.  (Which brings us to an inverse matter: that of the federal Liberals in 1988 being *boosted* by popular provincial parties--Carstairs-mania in Winnipeg, and the Peterson government in Ontario, especially)


Speaking of 1988, the PCs were damaged by unpopular provincial governments in Saskatchewan and (in Socred guise) BC--and in both cases, the federal NDP gains reflected their provincial status as OO and governments-in-waiting...
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adma
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« Reply #67 on: August 14, 2019, 05:52:12 PM »


Nonetheless you are right, despite unpopularity, often leaders stay on.  It was pretty obvious with both Wynne and Selinger they were going to lose, yet both insisted on staying on so lots of leaders out there don't know when to quit.  Heck even with Harper it was pretty clear he was not going to win a majority in 2015 and that if he fell short of a majority, the Liberals and NDP would gang up to defeat him on the throne speech, but he still stayed on thinking he could somehow pull off a majority or the supply and confidence between NDP and Liberals would never materialize.

I actually don't know how clear it was to Harper--I think the federal Cons were counting on the added seats through redistribution, a massive fundraising advantage, the Liberals as a depleted third party force under a lightweight leader and the NDP being the NDP.  And, maybe, the extended writ period as an opportunity to wear the opposition down, so to speak.  They really thought they could "fix" the election to their advantage...
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adma
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« Reply #68 on: August 14, 2019, 05:55:00 PM »

Mainstreet research showed PPC and CPC tied in Beauce, but with riding polls not having a great track record, tough to know.  Beyond that one, I don't expect them to win elsewhere.  Cornelius Chisu was an unknown backbencher so don't expect him to have any impact and Gurmant Grewal was over a decade ago and riding has changed a lot since so doubt he will have much impact either.  Steven Fletcher won't win, but he may create strong enough splits to allow the Liberals to hold the riding as right now I have that one leaning Tory, but local factor could save Liberals.  For Renata Ford, she will probably have one of the better showings, but considering how poorly the Tories normally do here, I expect Kirsty Duncan to hold the riding without too much difficulty.

I'm also wondering whether they're setting sights on New Brundwick, in light of NB's Confederation of Regions/People's Alliance tradition of dissident forces on the right...
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adma
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« Reply #69 on: August 15, 2019, 06:00:16 PM »


Seems weird at first, but don't forget how crazy and disorganised the Liberal candidate and local party were last time - some of the voters who wanted to vote liberal last time may get a chance this time and so are returning. Still, +15 when they tanked further up the island is something. And remember it's a riding poll from Mainstreet, which can sometimes be wildly off.

Another thing: are these figures candidate-specific, or are they just based on generic federal preferences?  (Might explain both Lib and Con being up--I can see both options "strategized" downwards come e-day)
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adma
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« Reply #70 on: August 21, 2019, 06:34:31 PM »



I'm sure Godin is welcome to run if he wants. It would've also been nice if he had entered provincial politics.

Yeah. Parties have limited resources and they ought to spend them on

a) Marginal seats
b) Investing in seats that might trend your way for whatever reason (e.g. IIRC the Tories spent a lot of $$$ in Quebec City in 2004 and 2006).

I can't think of anywhere in New Brunswick that fits those categories for the NDP.

Well, strictly building on 2015, Acadie-Bathurst (where the replacement for Yvan Godin got 39.4%) and Madawaska-Restigouche (NDP 2nd at 26%, almost 10 points ahead of PC incumbent Bernard Valcourt)  That is, *strictly* building.  But it sounds like they're not even trying.  (And oddly enough, NB's a place where the federal NDP in recent elections has noticeably overperformed what they "should" be doing given their dismal provincial record--in both 2008 and more predictably 2011, all their NB candidates got over 15%)
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adma
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« Reply #71 on: August 23, 2019, 05:27:31 PM »


I think it's more like you're taking the "bad news" too much at face value without considering that the Poll Tracker's really at the mercy of whatever polls cross its windscreen at whatever particular moment.  And at this point, the 4-seat swing is too picayune to be an indicator of anything deeper or more lasting...
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adma
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« Reply #72 on: August 24, 2019, 04:50:23 PM »


I think it's more like you're taking the "bad news" too much at face value without considering that the Poll Tracker's really at the mercy of whatever polls cross its windscreen at whatever particular moment.  And at this point, the 4-seat swing is too picayune to be an indicator of anything deeper or more lasting...

But if the Liberals were making gains since last few updates of CBC's forecast, and now they had stopped doing that - then you can call it "bad news". Also please note that I am relatively new to Canadian politics.

Another thing to keep in mind that there's been a bit of an "aggregator backlash" lately, with some pollsters shrinking at providing their figures to CBC on "proprietary" et al grounds.  So beyond the shifts being incremental and often momentary or by chance, it's increasingly questionable whether we'll get the full, accurate picture from such forecasts...
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adma
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« Reply #73 on: September 03, 2019, 06:49:43 PM »

The NDP saved face in 1993 by having a popular government in Saskatchewan. None of the seats they won in that election are "safe NDP" seats nowadays, and most of them weren't even won by the party in 2011. The NDP didn't even win Vancouver East in 1993.

While the provincial NDP is popular in BC, they could get outflanked by the Greens there. Things could be very bad indeed.



Actually, the interesting thing about 2019 as opposed to 1993 is how the present crisis in the federal NDP seems entirely self-inflicted, and there isn't some massive provincial spectre a la Bob Rae further weighing down party fortunes--in fact, for the most part the provincial parties (or reasonable quasi-proxies a la QS) seem in reasonable enough shape; or it's the feds pushing *them* down as opposed to vice versa.  The biggest black hole (not counting the provincial NPD in Quebec) is New Brunswick--but compared to the Rae government in '93, that ought to be nothing, the optics of the present defection aside.

So, let's see, 1993 vs 2019 provincially...

BC: the Horgan gov'ts less beleaguered than Harcourt's was at that juncture.  So things are up.
Alta: Notley lost in '19, but with the integrity of a decent opposition caucus--by comparison, in King Ralph's first election, the NDP was wiped out completely.  So things are up.

Sask: Things obviously down from Romanow days; but presently in a treading-water way--what's more relevant is the provincial-federal schism over Erin Weir et al.

Man:  Sort of "up" relative to par in both elections--Doer faring well in opposition then, Kinew faring well in the provincial election so far.

Ont: Definitely up from Rae--even if not *really* capitalizing on OO status the way they might.  Jagmeet doldrums might be weighing them down; but it certainly isn't Andrea doldrums weighing Jagmeet down.

QC: up by default, particularly if one counts QS.  But post-Orange Crush circumstances and the so-far embarrassing attempts to set up a provincial NPD offer a "deflationary" tableau, anyway--it only looks good compared to the 1.5% in 1993.

NB: down; but then, they had a provincial caucus-of-one in '93,  so it's not like they're going down from a lot.  The Green symbolism's what's important here.

PEI: down due to same Green symbolism; but for them, it was *zilch* in '93.

NS: sorta-down: they were small-but-chipper provincially then under Alexa, whereas they're larger-but-deflationary now (Zann's federal party jump; losing Timberlea, which had been one of the seats they *held* in '93, in a byelection)

Newf: up against a down grain, i.e. outperforming the lack of a full slate.
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adma
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« Reply #74 on: September 07, 2019, 07:29:32 PM »

Why don't they run candidates in New Brunswick? They have a sizable french minority in there.

Simple answer--it's the Bloc Quebecois, not the Bloc Francophone.
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