Canadian Election 2019

[King of Kensington]

On twitter there is data for Ontario subregions

Toronto: LPC 44 CPC 29 NDP 15
GTHA postal code L : LPC 37 CPC 35 NDP 19
East: LPC 41 CPC 24 NDP 21
SW: LPC 29, CPC 40 NDP 17
North (sample of 64): LPC 33 CPC 23 NDP 24 Green 17   

Does anyone have City of Toronto popular vote for 2015?

[King of Kensington]

Anyway, I think Angus will lose his seat to the Liberal candidate (same goes for Hughes in AMK).

It is possible.  What seats do you think they will hold?

[King of Kensington]

What's the likelihood that the NDP vote share in Brampton East is higher than second tier TO ridings like Beaches-East York and University-Rosedale?

[King of Kensington]

If Singh is struggling with the traditional labor left, the NDP is also facing some challenges with their professional middle class electorate too:  the rise of the Greens who compete for the anti-Liberal "progressive" vote and strategic voting.

[King of Kensington]

The NDP is split between its "labor-left" and "metropolitan left" wings.  It doesn't mean the latter is anti-union and not every NDP pol neatly fits into either box, but Singh is clearly from the latter group.

[King of Kensington]

Davenport is the NDP's best bet for a seat in Toronto.  It's arguably the most left-wing seat in Toronto now.  Andrew Cash is running again and he's been working since December.

[King of Kensington]

Davenport is the NDP's best bet for a seat in Toronto.  It's arguably the most left-wing seat in Toronto now.  Andrew Cash is running again and he's been working since December.

I can see that, mostly. Davenport does not have (from what I know) a wealthier enclave like some other seats that are arguably also very left-wing. But North of Davenport Road or St. Clair this is more Liberal then progressive/NDP (this is where the LPC won polls in the 2011 NDP sweep)

Parkdale-High Park -> If High Park was no within this riding, Parkdale would be already an NDP riding i'd argue, and is arguably one of the most leftist areas of the city. (LPC won polls in High Park during 2011)

Toronto-Danforth -> overall I'd argue the most progressive, generally an NDP riding, but swings to the LPC with large swings. It's made up of more, but smaller wealthier areas BUT still socially liberal/progressive, less Liberal. (LPC won 0 polls in 2011; to give you perspective, in 2011 the NDP won 60%, in 2015 the LPC won 42% during big swings for both parties. Of note, Jack Layton then NDP leader won Toronto-Danforth) But if you look provincially, in 2014 the ONDPs TO crush, the NDP still hung on here with 44%.

I do think the NDP will win one, if not all three of these... depending on how the campaign goes.

Danforth kind of reverted to post-Layton "normalcy" in 2015 (though Tabuns' incumbency gave him a boost in 2018 that put it at the top for popular vote) , but is not as progressive municipally as the west end wards.

Davenport, meanwhile, is kind of looking like Trinity-Spadina in the 1980s and 1990s.

[King of Kensington]

Yeah, I feel a Liberal majority coming.

[King of Kensington]

Better than the PPC platform.

[King of Kensington]

Looks like the Cons are running a Christian conservative pro-life activist in York Centre.  Pretty sure Michael Levitt will hang on.  Knocks it off at the top of "most likely TO seats to go Conservative" list (I think it's Scarborough-Agincourt).

https://twitter.com/Carolyn_Bennett/status/1172121813977042946

[King of Kensington]

Ya, that won't really work in TO... knock off a few points for the CPC. Ya, Scarborough-Agincourt the CPC pulled in 40% in the 2017 by-election. You then have to look at Etobicoke Centre and Don Valley North and Don Valley West as the next top targets I think  (probably less so Don Valley West, even though it is wealthier, I Think Oliphant is a more high profile incumbent)

Scarborough-Agincourt is clearly the seat where the Conservatives are most likely to win a seat.  Ironically it was one of two Liberal holdouts in 2011 due to the popularity of the very conservative Jim Karygiannis and the weakness of the NDP there.  

The main fault line in Scarborough politics, as adma has pointed out, is "Chinese" vs. "non-Chinese" Scarborough.  That was very evident in the provincial election where the PCs cracked 50% in Agincourt and Scarborough North but were held below 40% in the other ridings.  It'll be interesting to see if Scarborough North comes in at a clear #2 for Conservative vote in Scarborough.  It is heavily Chinese but has countervailing tendencies in its eastern half that Agincourt lacks.  

[King of Kensington]

Singh -> cool and calm, spoke to people and about people, the most personable. But should have delved deeper into policies, I felt he was lacking on some detail. Went right after Scheer and Trudeau, even May, but nailed Scheer with a few jabs he was not expecting (around Trump in particular). Moderators were all united here, this was Singh's to claim as a win, and performed better then expected.

It was good for Singh in that he exceeded the very low expectations of him. 

[King of Kensington]

I'm getting the sense that Toronto's suburbs are looking more like the Vancouver ones, in terms of ethnic voting trends. Chinese communities leaning more conservative while the South Asian community leaning more progressive (Liberal and or NDP)

Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto, Winnipeg and Vancouver all voted rather similarly in 2015.

[King of Kensington]

The Conservative running in Eglinton-Lawrence is a better fit for that base. 

[King of Kensington]

I wonder if Rachel Willson signed up a lot of Filipino community members.

[King of Kensington]

York Centre is basically Eglinton-Lawrence minus North Toronto. 

[King of Kensington]

Tories attack Harper-appointed GG David Johnston as a Liberal stooge:

https://twitter.com/CBCKatie/status/1173670456882339846

[King of Kensington]

Scheer's response is too opportunistic, Singh has shined in the past few days.  He looks like a serious player, rather than desperately fighting with the Greens for third place.

[King of Kensington]

South Asian and Black Canadians are (were?) probably the loyalest Trudeau demographics in the country. 

[King of Kensington]

True, Scheer gains by subtraction from the Liberal tally.

[King of Kensington]

It's really in the aftermath of the 1988 "free trade election" that the modern "unite the left to stop the right" era began (never mind that there were other issues in 1988 besides free trade)--and then it went into overdrive once premiers like Mike Harris started to be elected, and of course Ralph Nader "thwarting" Al Gore in 2000, etc.  Up to that time, such strategic hysteria tended to be more the preserve of the stop-the-socialist-hordes *right* (cf Socred-era BC)

Yeah, strategic voting on the center-left really began in 1988.  1984 was the year Broadbent campaigned against the "Bobsey twins of Bay St" (corporate lawyers Brian Mulroney and John Turner).  But in the free trade election, the argument fell flat.

[King of Kensington]

So called strategic voting started long before that. The first election I was aware of was in 1974 and in that election the NDP lost half its seats because so many people were “terrified” that Stanfield would
Impose wage and price controls and switched from NDP to Liberal to stop Stanfield. Of course one year later the Trudeau Liberal brought in wage and price controls themselves but I digress

Were there national campaigns saying defeat the Conservative in your riding?  Or was 1974 more of a situation where voters stampeded to the Liberals out of fear on their own volition?

[King of Kensington]

Latest Ekos:

https://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2019/09/initially-severe-impact-of-blackface-fades-suggesting-unsettled-and-volatile-electorate

Some quick observations:

1. Cons are sure piling up votes in AB/SK

2. The NDP is really in deep trouble

3. The offense to PM Blackface seems to be mostly feigned outrage from Conservative supporters of a partisan nature.

4. Visible minorities remain solidly behind the Liberals

[King of Kensington]

Translation: Support for Israel isn't going to be much of a "wedge issue" in the Canadian Jewish community this year

https://www.cjnews.com/news/canada/the-jewish-canadian-election-battleground

[King of Kensington]

Mainstreet has the NDP in third in Stratchona and the Conservatives retaking Edmonton-Mill Woods.  Will there be any non-Conservative seats in AB/SK after this election?