Canadian Election 2019
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Author Topic: Canadian Election 2019  (Read 189111 times)
Krago
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« Reply #2225 on: April 19, 2020, 03:40:26 PM »

Victoria BC











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Krago
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« Reply #2226 on: April 19, 2020, 03:42:29 PM »

York Region











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adma
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« Reply #2227 on: April 19, 2020, 05:08:42 PM »


I did say, "*seemed to* start to kick in".  That is, the post-debate boomlet--but in the end, its net effect was merely to bring the party up to the 15% threshold rather than what earlier seemed to be destined as single digits and behind the Greens.  That is, even if Jagmeet turned out to be quite good on the stump, the party he was leading was still deemed not ready for prime time; "but hey, maybe next time", etc.

Basically, it's what turned Parkdale-High Park into an "only" 1.5:1 margin for the Liberals rather than the 2:1 or worse it seemed destined for at the beginning.

But again, I'm noticing that the party actually seemed to hold its own in the no-hope Rest Of Ontario--shades of Howard Hampton in 2003 (increased share, but fewer seats and lost OPS) or even Jack Layton in 2004 (underwhelming in raw seat numbers, but overperforming in weird heartland Ontario seats).  And there were a *lot* more Ontario seats where they dead-cat-bounced into winning at least one polling station in 2019 than 2015, FWIW.  (Which is also saying something about how catastrophic Mulcair's 2015 campaign was)
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #2228 on: April 19, 2020, 05:35:33 PM »
« Edited: April 19, 2020, 05:50:20 PM by King of Kensington »

Mulcair's campaign was catastrophic indeed.  His defenders insisted "second best result ever."  With 44 seats that was technically true but highly misleading (as Ed Broadbent's 43 seats in 1988 was a bigger share of a smaller House of Commons).  Plus he lost 1 million votes and more than half the seats.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2229 on: April 19, 2020, 05:37:41 PM »

Why did Jagmeet's NDP do so badly in Windsor?
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #2230 on: April 20, 2020, 03:54:07 AM »

I think the argument for Singh isn't that it was a good result, it's that his personal ratings are good and that ought to count for something in an election where people aren't just reflexively voting for what they view as the best anti-Conservative option.

It's not that great an argument, but then again it's more of an argument than you can give for anybody else in the NDP at the moment.
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adma
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« Reply #2231 on: April 20, 2020, 05:52:55 AM »

Sort of like, Mulcair's campaign in 2015 let the NDP off the cliff; and Jagmeet's campaign in 2019 put a cushion at the bottom of the cliff.  Which still led to unavoidable injury (after all, pre-writ planning and resources could have substituted an airbag for the cushion); but at least they lived to see another day, recoverably so.

In many ways, ironically enough, Jagmeet's campaign was like Mike Harris's first campaign in 1990 when the Ontario PCs were in the dumpster--still third place and their worst share ever, but at least they showed fire in the belly which foretold Harris's victory in 1995.  (Which'd make Mulcair something of a triangulating-into-oblivion Larry Grossman figure.)
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2232 on: April 20, 2020, 01:32:34 PM »

Looking at the results, it's interesting that Ajax had the highest Liberal share in the 905.  North Ajax has basically become the 905 extension of eastern Scarborough (and Scarborough-Rouge Park, at 62.1%, was the highest share for the Liberals in the country).  Conservatives are as weak in Ajax as they are in Brampton, but with no "Jagmeet effect" the NDP vote is lower too.
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Krago
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« Reply #2233 on: April 20, 2020, 05:27:52 PM »

Why did Jagmeet's NDP do so badly in Windsor?

The Liberal candidates in 2019 - Sandra Pupatello in Windsor West and Irek Kusmierczyk in Windsor-Tecumseh - were far superior to the poteaux they ran in 2015.
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Krago
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« Reply #2234 on: April 20, 2020, 05:30:05 PM »

London











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Krago
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« Reply #2235 on: April 20, 2020, 05:32:00 PM »

Prince Edward Island











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Krago
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« Reply #2236 on: April 20, 2020, 05:34:10 PM »

St. John's











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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2237 on: April 20, 2020, 06:10:41 PM »

The Liberal candidates in 2019 - Sandra Pupatello in Windsor West and Irek Kusmierczyk in Windsor-Tecumseh - were far superior to the poteaux they ran in 2015.

Ironically Pupatello is the one we heard the most about - but she was the one who didn't get elected.  Windsor West being the "inner city" seat (and Masse's longer incumbency) may have had something to do with it?
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2238 on: April 20, 2020, 06:18:23 PM »

London has really trended away from the Conservatives.  It was the NDP that benefitted from the wearing off of the Trudeau wave there.
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adma
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« Reply #2239 on: April 21, 2020, 06:31:02 AM »

Looking at the results, it's interesting that Ajax had the highest Liberal share in the 905.  North Ajax has basically become the 905 extension of eastern Scarborough (and Scarborough-Rouge Park, at 62.1%, was the highest share for the Liberals in the country).  Conservatives are as weak in Ajax as they are in Brampton, but with no "Jagmeet effect" the NDP vote is lower too.


Though even there, in a repeated "wasted vote" pattern, the NDP had a dead cat bounce: their vote total was up more than 50% from 2015 (a bit because it had earlier been "strategized away" in a high-profile Con-vs-Lib race).  Which was a common under-the-wire pattern that was overshadowed by their inner-urban "promiscuous progressive" losses: single-digit shares becoming double-digit shares, etc.

And in both this case and Mississauga-Malton (second highest at .22% lower), the Liberal was a high-profile "machine incumbent" who bounced back in 2015 after 2011 losses.
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adma
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« Reply #2240 on: April 21, 2020, 06:41:09 AM »

Why did Jagmeet's NDP do so badly in Windsor?

The Liberal candidates in 2019 - Sandra Pupatello in Windsor West and Irek Kusmierczyk in Windsor-Tecumseh - were far superior to the poteaux they ran in 2015.

Hard to say about Kusmierczyk; it's more that he was ironically lifted by Pupatello's coattails, and Cheryl Hardcastle was the NDP's weakest link in Windsor.

And then there's the matter of Essex, where the *Conservative* candidate benefited--but to a degree, that could have been foretold by the same candidate giving the supposedly "bombproof" Taras Natyshak a provincial scare in 2018.  That is, it's the Ontario version of the kinds of Labour/Leave strongholds that would have opted for Boris last year.
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adma
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« Reply #2241 on: April 21, 2020, 06:48:53 AM »

London has really trended away from the Conservatives.  It was the NDP that benefitted from the wearing off of the Trudeau wave there.

Indeed, there's proof of my point re NDP "vote efficiency": the NDP won no polls whatsoever in London NC & W in 2015, but they won a fair number in 2019.

And it's interesting how the trending-away has even bled into the exurban polls of adjacent ridings that otherwise swung against the Liberals--the likes of Arva and Komoka are on a Liberal-red trajectory, it'd seem...
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2242 on: April 21, 2020, 12:31:12 PM »

I'm guessing the Liberals received a plurality of the votes of union members.
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adma
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« Reply #2243 on: April 22, 2020, 06:36:59 AM »

I'm guessing the Liberals received a plurality of the votes of union members.

Or more like, the NDP was to some degree reduced to the hardcore "union member" core; whereas the not-necessarily-unionized soft centre--in usual-suspect suburbanizing/middle-class places like S Windsor and Tecumseh, as well as gentrifying downtown pockets like Walkerville--gravitated Gritward.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2244 on: April 22, 2020, 12:30:24 PM »
« Edited: April 22, 2020, 12:37:54 PM by King of Kensington »

In Windsor specifically, maybe.  Nationally I'm sure the Liberals took it.  The NDP might have won it in 2011. 
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adma
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« Reply #2245 on: April 22, 2020, 01:07:14 PM »

In Windsor specifically, maybe.  Nationally I'm sure the Liberals took it.  The NDP might have won it in 2011. 

Yeah I was referring specifically to Windsor.  Though there's probably still a NDP/Con swing element in places like Essex and Oshawa (or even Hamilton, where in the NDP strongholds of much of the East End and on the Mountain the Cons challenged or even surpassed the Libs for 2nd place)
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2246 on: April 22, 2020, 01:14:21 PM »

NDP vote dropped in Sarnia too, a riding that seems to be fool's gold for them.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2247 on: April 22, 2020, 02:39:57 PM »

Seat composition in three regional pockets with a history of industrial trade unionism and working class social democracy.

Windsor-Essex

2019  NDP 1, Liberals 1, Conservatives 1
2015 NDP 3
2011 NDP 2, Conservatives 1
2008 NDP 2, Conservatives 1
2006 NDP 2, Conservatives 1

Hamilton-Niagara

2019 Liberals 4, Conservatives 3, NDP 2
2015 Liberals 4, Conservatives 3, NDP 2
2011 NDP 4, Conservatives 4
2008 NDP 4, Conservatives 4
2006 Conservatives 4, NDP 3, Liberals 1

Northern Ontario

2019 Liberals 6, NDP 2, Conservatives 1
2015 Liberals 7, NDP 2
2011 NDP 6, Conservatives 3
2008 NDP 7, Conservatives 2, Liberals 1
2006 Liberals 7, NDP 2
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VPH
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« Reply #2248 on: April 22, 2020, 03:25:05 PM »

Seat composition in three regional pockets with a history of industrial trade unionism and working class social democracy.

Windsor-Essex

2019  NDP 1, Liberals 1, Conservatives 1
2015 NDP 3
2011 NDP 2, Conservatives 1
2008 NDP 2, Conservatives 1
2006 NDP 2, Conservatives 1

Hamilton-Niagara

2019 Liberals 4, Conservatives 3, NDP 2
2015 Liberals 4, Conservatives 3, NDP 2
2011 NDP 4, Conservatives 4
2008 NDP 4, Conservatives 4
2006 Conservatives 4, NDP 3, Liberals 1

Northern Ontario

2019 Liberals 6, NDP 2, Conservatives 1
2015 Liberals 7, NDP 2
2011 NDP 6, Conservatives 3
2008 NDP 7, Conservatives 2, Liberals 1
2006 Liberals 7, NDP 2

It's interesting that the right hasn't advanced as much in these areas as demographic trends in other Western democracies (US, France, UK) would suggest. Sure, you had Kenora and a few swings towards the Tories in various places, but the rural and blue-collar center-left seems oddly resistant in Ontario. Unionization perhaps? Higher indigenous populations in Northern ridings? I've wondered about this for a few years.
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adma
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« Reply #2249 on: April 22, 2020, 04:15:13 PM »

Seat composition in three regional pockets with a history of industrial trade unionism and working class social democracy.

Windsor-Essex

2019  NDP 1, Liberals 1, Conservatives 1
2015 NDP 3
2011 NDP 2, Conservatives 1
2008 NDP 2, Conservatives 1
2006 NDP 2, Conservatives 1

Hamilton-Niagara

2019 Liberals 4, Conservatives 3, NDP 2
2015 Liberals 4, Conservatives 3, NDP 2
2011 NDP 4, Conservatives 4
2008 NDP 4, Conservatives 4
2006 Conservatives 4, NDP 3, Liberals 1

Northern Ontario

2019 Liberals 6, NDP 2, Conservatives 1
2015 Liberals 7, NDP 2
2011 NDP 6, Conservatives 3
2008 NDP 7, Conservatives 2, Liberals 1
2006 Liberals 7, NDP 2

It's interesting that the right hasn't advanced as much in these areas as demographic trends in other Western democracies (US, France, UK) would suggest. Sure, you had Kenora and a few swings towards the Tories in various places, but the rural and blue-collar center-left seems oddly resistant in Ontario. Unionization perhaps? Higher indigenous populations in Northern ridings? I've wondered about this for a few years.

Probably because Ontario hasn't had the history of "aggrievement" that has led to the populist right's gains in such jurisdictions--or at least, the urban ones.  Though I'd suggest that there definitely has been a rural-populist swing to the right, in that a lot of SW Ontario seats with a swingy or predominantly Liberal history even pre-Chretien are now pretty solid Conservative--and of course, in the other direction, Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke going from one of 1984's Liberal survivors to one of 2000's two Alliance gains in Ontario and solidly Conservative ever since.

Remember, too, that a lot is camoflauged by the NDP's relative weakness as a political entity compared to left/social-democratic proxies elsewhere--that is, where they *are* winningly strong in Ontario, there tends to be "special conditions" that don't work on behalf of CPC.
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