Canadian Election 2019

[Krago]

Hamilton

[Krago]

Brampton/Mississauga

[Krago]

Berthier-Maskinongé/Trois-Rivières

[Krago]

Quebec City

[Krago]

Richmond/Delta/Surrey

[Krago]

If you compare the 2015 and 2019 maps for Brampton and Surrey, you can see the dramatic effect that Jagmeet Singh had on bringing Sikh voters over to the NDP.

[King of Kensington]

Guess I need to get my eyes checked! 

[King of Kensington]

Three Toronto exurbs

Caledon  

Conservatives  14,519  40.8%
Liberals  13,247  37.2%
NDP  4,161  11.7%
Greens  2,778  7.8%

King  

Conservatives  6,663  50.3%
Liberals  4,628  34.9%
Greens  961  7.3%
NDP  729  5.5%

Whitchurch-Stouffville

Conservatives  7,433  31%
Liberals  7,421  31%  
Jane Philpott (Independent) 6,775  28.2%
NDP  1,298  5.4%
Greens  655  2.7%

[King of Kensington]

From Simcoe-Grey riding:

The Blue Mountains

Liberals  2,096  41%
Conservatives  1,829  35.8%
Greens  728  14.2%
NDP  368  7.2%

Collingwood

Liberals  5,055  40.7%
Conservatives  3,909  31.4%
Greens  1,873  15.1%
NDP  1,296  10.4%

Wasaga Beach

Conservatives  5,339  43.1%
Liberals  4,004  32.3%
NDP  1,490  12%
Greens  1,199  9.7%

New Tecumseth

Conservatives  8,545  44%
Liberals  6,197  31.9%
NDP  2,256  11.6%
Greens  1,828  9.4%

[adma]

From those maps I think Davenport is most certainly not lost for the NDP? They should at least remain competitive there. Plus several of the downtown Toronto districts look like possible "reach districts" if the local conditions are just right? (say a scandal plagued Liberal candidate, or a big NDP resurgence)

Though the picture might be skewed a touch by Davenport having been "supertargeted" via an Andrew Cash comeback bid--and given the party's depleted resources going into the election, that might have been all they were *really*, quietly, banking on.  But it's safe to say that most anything that's currently held by the ONDP provincially is a potential "reach district" federally.  (Maybe not Toronto-St. Paul's--then again, in Alok Mukherjee, they might well have had their "highest-profile" Toronto candidate there after Cash)

[DC Al Fine]

The ultimate emblem of how the NDP dropped the ball in downtown Toronto: they even lost Toronto Island.  (Though the fact that Adam Vaughan's rep is that of a "community politics" Liberal helps--it's hard to see a Tony Ianno capturing Toronto Island progressives in quite the same way)

Agreed. Obviously Jagmeet Singh should get a pass for the Quebec losses, but going backwards in Toronto, when Trudeau was tainted by scandal is not good at all, and absolutely needs to be corrected next time around.

I'm curious what the NDP post-mortems about the area have concluded.

[CumbrianLefty]

Thank you for those excellent maps, shame we can't go into that level of detail over here

[King of Kensington]

The NDP apparently targeted Parkdale-High Park but lost by 10,000 votes.  Singh seemed to make more appearances there than anywhere else in Toronto.  How much can that be explained away by "no incumbency"?

Danforth also saw an 8000 vote loss.  No Jack effect this time?

[King of Kensington]

Agreed. Obviously Jagmeet Singh should get a pass for the Quebec losses, but going backwards in Toronto, when Trudeau was tainted by scandal is not good at all, and absolutely needs to be corrected next time around.

I'm curious what the NDP post-mortems about the area have concluded.

Singh has gotten a remarkably free pass in the NDP.  They're using the yardstick of "we could have lost party status" and "he did as well as Layton the first time out."

[King of Kensington]

Stratford votes very differently from the rest of the "rurban" riding of Perth-Wellington it is located in.

Stratford

Liberals  6,456  37.2%
Conservatives  5,067  29.2%
NDP  3,397  19.6%
Greens  1,942  11.2%

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Agreed. Obviously Jagmeet Singh should get a pass for the Quebec losses, but going backwards in Toronto, when Trudeau was tainted by scandal is not good at all, and absolutely needs to be corrected next time around.

I'm curious what the NDP post-mortems about the area have concluded.

Singh has gotten a remarkably free pass in the NDP.  They're using the yardstick of "we could have lost party status" and "he did as well as Layton the first time out."

does Singh have any potential at all to become the next Jack Layton?

[cp]

Agreed. Obviously Jagmeet Singh should get a pass for the Quebec losses, but going backwards in Toronto, when Trudeau was tainted by scandal is not good at all, and absolutely needs to be corrected next time around.

I'm curious what the NDP post-mortems about the area have concluded.

Singh has gotten a remarkably free pass in the NDP.  They're using the yardstick of "we could have lost party status" and "he did as well as Layton the first time out."

does Singh have any potential at all to become the next Jack Layton?

Not really, especially if a breakthrough in Québec is considered integral to being the next Jack Layton.

[adma]

The NDP apparently targeted Parkdale-High Park but lost by 10,000 votes.  Singh seemed to make more appearances there than anywhere else in Toronto.  How much can that be explained away by "no incumbency"?

Danforth also saw an 8000 vote loss.  No Jack effect this time?

Re PHP, I think it wasn't just "no incumbency", but "no Peggy Nash" as well--in some ways, her popularity transcended affiliation.  And of course, the messy nomination battle to replace her didn't help.  Sans Nash, areas like Bloor West settled into more of a natural North Toronto-ish kind of upper-middle Lib-friendly gravity.

And by and large, by the time Jagmeetmania *seemed* to start to kick in, the inner-416 oblivion was hardwired, with a bit of ballast from anti-Scheer strategizing.

[King of Kensington]

What "Jagmeetmania"?

[King of Kensington]

You see North Toronto-ization in the Beaches too - the sort of eastern mirror image of Bloor West/Swansea.

[CumbrianLefty]

What "Jagmeetmania"?

Glad its not just me who wondered that

[Krago]

Victoria BC

[Krago]

York Region

[adma]

What "Jagmeetmania"?

I did say, "*seemed to* start to kick in".  That is, the post-debate boomlet--but in the end, its net effect was merely to bring the party up to the 15% threshold rather than what earlier seemed to be destined as single digits and behind the Greens.  That is, even if Jagmeet turned out to be quite good on the stump, the party he was leading was still deemed not ready for prime time; "but hey, maybe next time", etc.

Basically, it's what turned Parkdale-High Park into an "only" 1.5:1 margin for the Liberals rather than the 2:1 or worse it seemed destined for at the beginning.

But again, I'm noticing that the party actually seemed to hold its own in the no-hope Rest Of Ontario--shades of Howard Hampton in 2003 (increased share, but fewer seats and lost OPS) or even Jack Layton in 2004 (underwhelming in raw seat numbers, but overperforming in weird heartland Ontario seats).  And there were a *lot* more Ontario seats where they dead-cat-bounced into winning at least one polling station in 2019 than 2015, FWIW.  (Which is also saying something about how catastrophic Mulcair's 2015 campaign was)

[King of Kensington]

Mulcair's campaign was catastrophic indeed.  His defenders insisted "second best result ever."  With 44 seats that was technically true but highly misleading (as Ed Broadbent's 43 seats in 1988 was a bigger share of a smaller House of Commons).  Plus he lost 1 million votes and more than half the seats.