Canadian Election 2019

[Krago]

Vancouver/Burnaby














Jody Wilson-Raybould's winning polls in 2019 are coloured in shades of gray.

[Krago]

Could you do Scarborough North?

"One of these is not like the others..."

[Krago]

Montreal

[Krago]

Oshawa/Whitby

[Krago]

Fredericton

[King of Kensington]

The Scarborough maps are fascinating.  Goes from boring red "Bloc Scarberia" to the 2011 free for all/Tamil flirtation with the NDP/Karygiannis holding back a Chinese swing to the Tories to the 2015 to present scenario of mega-Liberal South Asians and increasingly Conservative Chinese Canadians.

[Krago]

Halifax

[Krago]

Kitchener-Waterloo/Cambridge/Guelph

[Krago]

Regina

[Krago]

Saskatoon

[King of Kensington]

Regina

Conservatives  55,653  50.9%
NDP  23,793  21.8%
Liberals  23,793  21.6%

Saskatoon

Conservatives  67,693  50.6%
NDP  41,859  31.3%
Liberals  17,100  12.8%

[Krago]

Downtown Toronto

[adma]

The ultimate emblem of how the NDP dropped the ball in downtown Toronto: they even lost Toronto Island.  (Though the fact that Adam Vaughan's rep is that of a "community politics" Liberal helps--it's hard to see a Tony Ianno capturing Toronto Island progressives in quite the same way)

[King of Kensington]

Unfortunately for the NDP Toronto lacks a more "naturally left" Winnipeg Centre/Hamilton Centre/east Van-type of seat.  The Liberal Party is popular among all classes and in racialized and immigrant communities.  Likely to be a red fortress for the indefinite future.

Only hope for them is an "urban hipster" Parkdale + southern Davenport seat and I doubt even that would have gone Liberal last year.

[Tintrlvr]

Unfortunately for the NDP Toronto lacks a more "naturally left" Winnipeg Centre/Hamilton Centre/east Van-type of seat.  The working class is dispersed and the Liberal Party is popular among all classes and in racialized and immigrant communities.  Likely to be a red fortress for the indefinite future.

Maybe there will be a Bloordale-Parkdale seat drawn some day that would have voted NDP even in 2015 and maybe 2019 I think.

[King of Kensington]

The ultimate emblem of how the NDP dropped the ball in downtown Toronto: they even lost Toronto Island.  (Though the fact that Adam Vaughan's rep is that of a "community politics" Liberal helps--it's hard to see a Tony Ianno capturing Toronto Island progressives in quite the same way)

I wonder if they won the Island vote in 1993.

[adma]

The ultimate emblem of how the NDP dropped the ball in downtown Toronto: they even lost Toronto Island.  (Though the fact that Adam Vaughan's rep is that of a "community politics" Liberal helps--it's hard to see a Tony Ianno capturing Toronto Island progressives in quite the same way)

I wonder if they won the Island vote in 1993.

By my recall, they actually *might* have.  (Though that's when Jack Layton, of all people, was making his suicide run in Toronto Centre--which it was part of at the time.  And were it part of Trinity-Spadina, it almost certainly would have.)

[King of Kensington]

From selected communities in West Van-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country.

West Vancouver

Conservatives 8,064 42.7%
Liberals 7,344 38.9%
Greens 2,074 11%
NDP 982 5.2%

Bowen Island

Liberals 899 39.3%
Greens 750 32.8%
NDP 299 13.1%
Conservatives 292 12.8%

Squamish

Liberals 4,016 33.5%
Greens 3,503 29.2%
Conservatives 2,134 17.8%
NDP 2,030 16.9%

Whistler

Liberals 2,608 40.7%
Greens 1,863 29.1%
Conservatives 1,051 16.4%
NDP 732 11.4%

Gibsons

Liberals 1,348 28.7%
Greens 1,318 28%
NDP 1,008 21.4%
Conservatives 890 18.9%

[King of Kensington]

Burnaby North-Seymour riding:

North Burnaby

NDP  11,707  35%
Liberals  10,727  32.1%
Conservatives  7,220  21.6%
Greens  2,473  7.4%

Seymour (North Vancouver)

Liberals  5,808  43.4%
NDP  3,316  24.8%
Conservatives  1,885  14.1%
Greens  1,777  13.3%

[adma]

Burnaby North-Seymour riding:

North Burnaby

NDP  11,707  35%
Liberals  10,727  32.1%
Conservatives  7,220  21.6%
Greens  2,473  7.4%

Seymour (North Vancouver)

Liberals  5,808  43.4%
NDP  3,316  24.8%
Conservatives  1,885  14.1%
Greens  1,777  13.3%

I suppose that ethnicity explains the higher Conservative share (for disallowed candidate Heather Leung) in N Burnaby than in Seymour.

And speaking of matters of ethnicity and whatever else: it's interesting how, in Markham-Stouffville, Jane Philpott's strongholds were heavily concentrated in Old Stouffville--but her share plummeted quite noticeably in Stouffville's newburbia; and likewise, she did better in Markham Village than its newer environs.  Seems that, as I suspected, her following was very much defined by "Red Tory Old Ontario", so to speak (and it's why her independent candidacy wasn't the up-the-middle drop-in-the-bucket for the Conservatives that some expected)

[Njall]

Krago, these maps are really great. Would you be able to do some for Calgary and Edmonton?

[Former President tack50]

From those maps I think Davenport is most certainly not lost for the NDP? They should at least remain competitive there. Plus several of the downtown Toronto districts look like possible "reach districts" if the local conditions are just right? (say a scandal plagued Liberal candidate, or a big NDP resurgence)

[Krago]

Burnaby North-Seymour riding:

North Burnaby

NDP  11,707  35%
Liberals  10,727  32.1%
Conservatives  7,220  21.6%
Greens  2,473  7.4%

Seymour (North Vancouver)

Liberals  5,808  43.4%
NDP  3,316  24.8%
Conservatives  1,885  14.1%
Greens  1,777  13.3%

[Krago]

Krago, these maps are really great. Would you be able to do some for Calgary and Edmonton?

Calgary














Edmonton

[Krago]

Winnipeg