Canadian Election 2019

[DistingFlyer]

Another curious thing: the Tories are about to exceed 6 million votes. This will make only the third time this has ever happened (Liberals in 2015 with 6.9 million & Tories in 1984 with 6.3 million are the other two).

The overall shares of the vote aren't too far off from how things looked mid-campaign, as opposed to the last few days.

Strangely, the last time polls at the start of the campaign got the result right was 1988: they showed 43%-33%-22%, then the campaign itself got very volatile, but then things settled back again to 43%-32%-20% on election night.

Now the total number of votes has exceeded those cast in 2015 (a new high); turnout's down, but population's up more.

[Sir Mohamed]

Even though Trudeau won, He still lost a lot of his power tonight as he's reduced to a minority government.

Yup, but considering he could have lost easily, the result is pretty much ok. I hope he works out an agreement with the NDP.

[cinyc]

There are 2 seats left to be called - Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine, where 1 poll is outstanding from who-knows-where, and Kitchener-Conestoga, where 6 polls are outstanding plus some special votes, from New Hamburg. Liberals lead both - it’s a race with the Bloc in Gaspesie--Les-Iles-de-la-Madeleine and a race with the Conservatives in Kitchener-Conestoga.

Does anyone know how New Hamburg voted in 2015? Naturally, all the images from our 2015 thread have been eaten, and the two interactive maps I found either aren’t working (election-atlas.ca) or don’t have popups with results.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What a dismal election. At least we've avoided PM Scheer, I guess (although I'm sure he or someone even more heinous will make a triumphant comeback at the next election). Otherwise, the Singh Surge proved to be a dud and NDP lost half its seats for no good reason, BQ is back and more nakedly racist than ever, the most worthless green party in the developed world has gained a bigger platform (both developments that probably contributed to ing over the NDP), and the upcoming government is going to represent barely a third of the electorate through the combined magic of FPP and Canada's ridiculous boner for minority governments. What an utter and pathetic failure on all parts.

[Oryxslayer]

A lot of people have noted how these results were bad for everyone not named the Bloc. It will be interesting to see how many of the current crop of Leaders are still around in six months or so once the dust settles. One could make serious arguments for all getiing replaced.

Trudeau: Yes he won reelection with a sizable minority. Now, Trudeau could have done far worse, but he also could have done far better. His new government also could be on a tight leash and have to walk between the policies desired by the NDP for the most part and the plains pipeline Tories for certain issues. Trudeau however hasn't exactly been that type of leader in the past. The Liberal caucus has to note that this time around they won In Spite Of rather than Thanks To their charismatic leader, and things could have been far worse eif Ford wasn't hated in Ontario.

Sheer: Sheer has the problem that he didn't really prove himself to be the leader the Tories need. Most of the seats he picked up tonight were the lowest hanging fruit, with the wipe-away of the opposition West of Ontario just being a reversion to the mean. Sheer needed to do, at minimum, one  of three things: Win a sizable amount of seats in Ontario proving their distance from Ford, convert CAQ voters in Quebec, or sweep the rural Atlantic. None of these potential inroads occured. The only prize Scheer can point to is his popular vote win. His candidacy and platform was certainly popular in the Oil Plains, and they turbo-charged the Conservative vote inefficiency.

Singh: Unless Singh can get a coalition deal out of the Libs, he has nothing to show for his time at the healm. Yes, the NDP was polling near wipeout territory a while back, but this doesn't excuse the fact that the NDP looked to be on track for an okay showing based on last-week polls. Quebec was always going to be lost, that was built in. The problem is that some projections put Singh close to giving the NDP their best non-quebec numbers ever. That of course didn't happen, and the NDP only really lost seats - even outside of Quebec. No pickups in urban Toronto or with the minority communities in Peel that Singh could have appealed to. Three seats were gained for the NDP this night, and all three could be justifiably the result of the local candidate more then Singh. Who knows, maybe the NDP will return to their doldrums post-election, now that the Singh moment never materialized.

May: This ones more up to her. Yes she increased her caucus, and yes it was outside of BC. However she has expressed an interest in stepping down from the helm of the party, simply because of the demands that the position requires. So she may just step down in keeping with her previous hints.

[Walmart_shopper]

Wow, the left wing blew dozens of seats by splitting the vote, fdck them.

Actually, Liberal vote efficiency was incredible. They won many more ridings than they lost thwnks to anti-Conservative strategic voting.

[cinyc]

There are 2 seats left to be called - Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine, where 1 poll is outstanding from who-knows-where, and Kitchener-Conestoga, where 6 polls are outstanding plus some special votes, from New Hamburg. Liberals lead both - it’s a race with the Bloc in Gaspesie--Les-Iles-de-la-Madeleine and a race with the Conservatives in Kitchener-Conestoga.

Does anyone know how New Hamburg voted in 2015? Naturally, all the images from our 2015 thread have been eaten, and the two interactive maps I found either aren’t working (election-atlas.ca) or don’t have popups with results.

I'll answer my own question: There were 3,359 non-advance votes cast in the 17 New Hamburg poll divisions in 2015. The Conservatives won them, but only by 288 votes. The current margin is 273 votes. Only 5 polls are out, so unless there's some shift from 2015 or the advance vote has yet to be counted, the Liberal candidate should hold on here - barely.

It was close in 2015 and will be close in 2019.

[mgop]

Results are perfect. Trudeau remains prime minister, but have to depend on BQ or NDP. And cpc loses again, beautiful.

[Continential]

Singh almost lost in Bunaby South.

[DabbingSanta]

What would have the results been under proportional representation?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Should I not be surprised the NDP picked up Nunavut? Seemed a bit unexpected.

[Person Man]

It’s as if the election was decided on negative reverse coattails. It would be as if Murdoch and Akin were blamed for Romney’s loss or more precisely on nuts like Steve King, Paul LaPage, and Louis Gohmert.

[DC Al Fine]

Should I not be surprised the NDP picked up Nunavut? Seemed a bit unexpected.

Literally every possible result up North should be unsurprising

[jaichind]

Other than BQ being weaker and the CPC vote share actually beat LPC is this election not just a repeat of 2004 ?

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

What would have the results been under proportional representation?

I’ll get back on that one. I’m gonna wait until we have basically everything in.

[LabourJersey]

It’s as if the election was decided on negative reverse coattails. It would be as if Murdoch and Akin were blamed for Romney’s loss or more precisely on nuts like Steve King, Paul LaPage, and Louis Gohmert.

That example ignores how Ontario is far and away the biggest province, with the largest metro area and the most marginal seats.

It would be as if the New York, LA and Chicago metros were all combined and in a single state, and the governor of that state was a hilariously unpopular Republican. Of course that governor's bad approvals would hurt the national GOP nominee.

[adma]

Wow, the left wing blew dozens of seats by splitting the vote, fdck them.

Arguably, that always happens in Canada.

That's depressing bro.

Ah, such is Americans not accustomed to electoral orders that aren't strictly binary.

What *I* find depressing is how the Cons just keep getting more stratospheric in the West, i.e. all the 75%+ and even 80%+  mandates with opposition all in single digits--and really, that should be depressing to *them*, too, in a dumbed-down "why bother having elections?" way...

[LabourJersey]

Wow, the left wing blew dozens of seats by splitting the vote, fdck them.

the Liberal party also isn't really left-wing, no matter what Trudeau makes people think. It's rhetorically center-left but it's historically a centrist/catch-all party and normally governs from the center.

[VPH]

Other than BQ being weaker and the CPC vote share actually beat LPC is this election not just a repeat of 2004 ?

tbh the map even kind of looks similar

[mgop]

are people in alberta n sask so filthy rich n selfish or just full of hate we will never know

[lfromnj]

Canada is so woke they made Trudeau a minority so his blackface is acceptable.

[super6646]

are people in alberta n sask so filthy rich n selfish or just full of hate we will never know

If you see it like that, you are less than clueless about the current issues in Canada (and specifically those two provinces).

[CumbrianLefty]

This result reminds me of the 2005 GE here (a pretty depressing and uninspired affair too) but if anything more so.

Gutted at Ruth Ellen losing, she could have been the next NDP leader.

[StateBoiler]

Was the Bloc resurgence expected? After the downgrade to minority government, biggest news to me.

[lilTommy]

Wow, the left wing blew dozens of seats by splitting the vote, fdck them.

the Liberal party also isn't really left-wing, no matter what Trudeau makes people think. It's rhetorically center-left but it's historically a centrist/catch-all party and normally governs from the center.

Bang on. The LPC did what it does when it is desperate, and it worked here. Fear monger the CPC (with some legitimacy) and rally this false "vote Strategically" which is code for Vote Liberals. This works well in places like TO, progressives are swingers here. But actually caused some conservative wins and some NDP losses.

NDP and Jagmeet ran a strong campaign, but the polling numbers just did not translate, many progressives held their nose and voted Liberal to stop Scheer. Some very few bright spots for the party like St. Johns East, Nunavut, Winnipeg Centre, holding Edmonton-Strathcona (the ONLY non-CPC seat in Alberta and SASK) and saving most of Vancouver Island. Devastation in Quebec and Saskatchewan, disappointment in Ontario.
The NDP and BQ will have the balance of power which is good, both are arguably progressive left parties who will push the LPC to the left (that's my hope)

Nothing stopping those NDP MPs who lost in QC from staying involved to help re-build the party, like REB, Caron, Dusseault. Sad to see them lose.