Canadian Election 2019

[DC Al Fine]

Election models are pretty good at the national leevel, but maaaann are they bad at the riding level. Seeing a lot of predictions that the NDP will pick up Acadie-Bathurst despite not running Yvon Godin. The models really need some sort of adjustment for candidates.

[MaxQue]

Election models are pretty good at the national leevel, but maaaann are they bad at the riding level. Seeing a lot of predictions that the NDP will pick up Acadie-Bathurst despite not running Yvon Godin. The models really need some sort of adjustment for candidates.

They are running Daniel Thériault, long time president of the Acadien Festival, which is considered a star candidate.

[DC Al Fine]

Election models are pretty good at the national leevel, but maaaann are they bad at the riding level. Seeing a lot of predictions that the NDP will pick up Acadie-Bathurst despite not running Yvon Godin. The models really need some sort of adjustment for candidates.

They are running Daniel Thériault, long time president of the Acadien Festival, which is considered a star candidate.

Hmm, may have to eat crow tonight then.

[KaiserDave]

I'm saying Liberal minority, I think polls are somewhat overestimating liberals.


But I don't like any of the party leaders soooooo

[Walmart_shopper]

Will there be turnout updates throughout the day at the national or provincial level?

[Oryxslayer]

I'm saying Liberal minority, I think polls are somewhat overestimating liberals.


But I don't like any of the party leaders soooooo

I think a lot of people want both Trudeau and Scheer to get punished today, but the window of outcomes where that occurs is rather narrow, unless the NDP/BQ/others surge.

[Canis]

Rooting for Jagmeet and the NDP but I also take Justin over Scheer everyday so this is gonna be interesting

[Matty]

Wait....if I am reading this right, center right and right-wing parties in canada will barely combine for 1/3 of the vote? That is embarrassing.

[Canis]

Wait....if I am reading this right, center right and right-wing parties in canada will barely combine for 1/3 of the vote? That is embarrassing.

It's Canada not Louisana

[Matty]

Wait....if I am reading this right, center right and right-wing parties in canada will barely combine for 1/3 of the vote? That is embarrassing.

It's Canada not Louisana

I get that, but the U.K., Germany, etc are also not Louisiana and center right parties combine for way more there than Canada.

[Oryxslayer]

Wait....if I am reading this right, center right and right-wing parties in canada will barely combine for 1/3 of the vote? That is embarrassing.

It's Canada not Louisana

I get that, but the U.K., Germany, etc are also not Louisiana and center right parties combine for way more there than Canada.

Best way to understand Canada is that ~1/3 of the seats are located in a region comparable to NY/IL, and a majority of the national seats are  in sub/urban areas. That's not a recipe for a strong conservative party, which is why they often have to win 'red-tories' to remain relevant.

[Intell]

Wait....if I am reading this right, center right and right-wing parties in canada will barely combine for 1/3 of the vote? That is embarrassing.

It's Canada not Louisana

I get that, but the U.K., Germany, etc are also not Louisiana and center right parties combine for way more there than Canada.

Many center-right voters vote for the liberals.

[Hatman 🍁]

Wait....if I am reading this right, center right and right-wing parties in canada will barely combine for 1/3 of the vote? That is embarrassing.

It's Canada not Louisana

I get that, but the U.K., Germany, etc are also not Louisiana and center right parties combine for way more there than Canada.

Many center-right voters vote for the liberals.

Indeed, despite their reputation, the Liberals are Canada's centrist party.

Election models are pretty good at the national leevel, but maaaann are they bad at the riding level. Seeing a lot of predictions that the NDP will pick up Acadie-Bathurst despite not running Yvon Godin. The models really need some sort of adjustment for candidates.

They are running Daniel Thériault, long time president of the Acadien Festival, which is considered a star candidate.

Hmm, may have to eat crow tonight then.

Don't worry, the NDP has no chance in Acadie-Bathurst. "Star candidate" or not.

[Matty]

Wait....if I am reading this right, center right and right-wing parties in canada will barely combine for 1/3 of the vote? That is embarrassing.

It's Canada not Louisana

I get that, but the U.K., Germany, etc are also not Louisiana and center right parties combine for way more there than Canada.

Many center-right voters vote for the liberals.

I see. Thanks for clarifying. Are the liberals a “big tent” party?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/MikeMontrealer/status/1186110065989824512

Forum's last poll's regional breakdown. Seat/Vote -wise it is:

Lib: 140/31.7
Con: 111/29.9
NDP: 38/17.5
Bloc: 48/8.3
Green: 1/9.0
PPC: 0/3.0

[RaphaelDLG]

From what I gather, is the likely outcome?
1. Liberals lose a lot of seats but still have a plurality
2. Conservatives make big gains
3. NDP loses a few seats
4. BQ surges massively

[Oryxslayer]

From what I gather, is the likely outcome?
1. Liberals lose a lot of seats but still have a plurality
2. Conservatives make big gains
3. NDP loses a few seats
4. BQ surges massively

Change 3 to: NDP makes gains outside of Quebec, but is offset by their losses in Quebec.

[cp]

Wait....if I am reading this right, center right and right-wing parties in canada will barely combine for 1/3 of the vote? That is embarrassing.

It's Canada not Louisana

I get that, but the U.K., Germany, etc are also not Louisiana and center right parties combine for way more there than Canada.

Many center-right voters vote for the liberals.

I see. Thanks for clarifying. Are the liberals a “big tent” party?

In a manner of speaking. They are highly adept at a kind of flexible centrism/moderation. In the 60s they leaned noticeably to the left, in the 90s and 00s they leaned noticeably to the right. They are rarely so 'big tent' that they include, for comparison's sake, Ted Cruz, Hilary Clinton, and Bernie Sanders all at the same time. But there have been periods when they've all but jettisoned one 'wing' they could appeal to because it is not electorally viable.

The best comparison for the Canadian federal Liberals is the UK Conservative party. They are the party of old money and the well connected, reluctantly embracing change and more concerned with power than policy at the end of the day. Unlike the UK Tories, however, the Liberals have never found common cause with any truly radical right wing politics (nor left wing, really, notwithstanding the Liberals' right-leaning opponents tiresome insistence to the contrary).

For the record, the Liberals are, historically speaking, in a more left-leaning mode, though very slightly. That might change after tonight.

[Gass3268]

Is it raining anywhere (perferablely with a No- prefix attached to it) that will result in mass panic and cancelation of left leaning parties?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wait....if I am reading this right, center right and right-wing parties in canada will barely combine for 1/3 of the vote? That is embarrassing.

It's Canada not Louisana

I get that, but the U.K., Germany, etc are also not Louisiana and center right parties combine for way more there than Canada.

In purely functional terms (and Bagehot was right: really, what else matters in politics?) the Liberal Party of Canada has spent most of the the time since the 1980s operating to the right of all significant German parties other than the AfD and not always that much more to the left of the British Conservatives.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The best comparison for the Canadian federal Liberals is the UK Conservative party. They are the party of old money and the well connected, reluctantly embracing change and more concerned with power than policy at the end of the day. Unlike the UK Tories, however, the Liberals have never found common cause with any truly radical right wing politics (nor left wing, really, notwithstanding the Liberals' right-leaning opponents tiresome insistence to the contrary).

Neither party would welcome the comparison, but it is accurate.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Discounting the possibility that there are some Liberal waverers that are considering the Tories strikes me as a mistake. At this stage, it seems that there aren't many Liberal supporters who dislike Trudeau and the Liberals have ran a rather centrist campaign but even a late shift of ~5% of Liberals to the Tories could be disastrous in marginal ridings.

Different context but, in 2011 and 2018, I was shocked by the degree to which "blue Liberals" were willing to back the Conservatives against the NDP in the GTA. These same voters have, at times, bailed on the Liberals at the last minute. Doesn't seem plausible at all this time but should be considered imo.

[cp]

Wait....if I am reading this right, center right and right-wing parties in canada will barely combine for 1/3 of the vote? That is embarrassing.

It's Canada not Louisana

I get that, but the U.K., Germany, etc are also not Louisiana and center right parties combine for way more there than Canada.

In purely functional terms (and Bagehot was right: really, what else matters in politics?) the Liberal Party of Canada has spent most of the the time since the 1980s operating to the right of all significant German parties other than the AfD and not always that much more to the left of the British Conservatives.

That was probably true up until 5 years ago or so. Trudeau's no lefty, but he's decidedly less right-leaning than Paul Martin, and WAY less right wing than Theresa May (or Merkel, for that matter); he'd probably find more overlap with Johnson if it weren't for the fundamentalism of Brexit screwing everything up.

[Philly D.]

Is it raining anywhere (perferablely with a No- prefix attached to it) that will result in mass panic and cancelation of left leaning parties?

Only in Vancouver.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

The Liberal Party of Canada occupies a very unique space. It is similar to the Liberal Democrats in Japan or the PRI in Mexico in terms of its image as a party of power and as a party without a well-defined ideology. In practice, even if it is a shape-shifting entity, it usually governs more like a center-right party than anything else and, when it does not, it's usually due to the influence or threat of the NDP. During electoral campaigns, it always positions itself as a center-left party but, predictably, it always governs more like a center-right party.

I'd argue that the Canadian electorate basically allows it to occupy this space because Canada is such a disparate country. The Western wackos who have tended to dominate the Conservative Party since the functional demise of the Progressive Conservatives lack credibility with Canadians outside of the Prairies, oilfields - it's too adversarial and too clearly about Western interests vs. everyone else when there isn't a concerted effort to broaden the base.

Maybe I'm off-base here but I tend to be fascinated by the inability of the NDP to gain traction as a major second party at the national level when it has done so with ease in many provinces. Contrasting the achievements of NDP governments with Liberal governments always serves as a reminder of the gigantic gulf that exists between the two parties and I tend to be baffled by the existence of left-leaners who almost always vote for Liberals. I guess the specter of the wackos and nutjobs coming to power is enough of an inducement? Wynne and McGuinty were a disgrace but when compared with Ford or Harris, I can grasp why the Liberals are able to justify themselves.