Canadian Election 2019

[lilTommy]

CPC: 33% (-1)
LPC: 29% (-)
NDP: 19% (+2)
GPC: 8% (-1)
BQ: 8% (+1)
PPC: 3%  (-)

ONTARIO          BC                  QUEBEC        ATLANTIC        SK/MB
CPC - 34%        CPC - 32%     LPC - 29%     CPC - 37%      CPC - 50%
LPC - 34%        LPC - 26%       BQ - 32%      LPC - 29%     NDP - 23%
NDP - 20%       NDP - 26%     CPC - 17%     NDP - 17%     LPC - 18%
GPC - 9%         GPC - 9%        NDP - 12%    GPC - 15%      GPC - 5%
                                             GPC - 6%
Angus Reid / October 15, 2019 / n=1984 / MOE 2% / Online

(% chg w Oct 10)

*Leader Favourabilities:

Jagmeet Singh: 64% (+5)
Yves Francois Blanchet: 56% (+4)
Elizabeth May: 47% (+3)
Andrew Scheer: 37% (-1)
Justin Trudeau: 36% (+1)
Maxime Bernier: 17% (+2)

*Those who have already voted:

CPC: 32%
LPC: 28%
NDP: 18%
BQ: 7%
GPC: 7%
PPC: 3%

http://angusreid.org/election-2019-final-week/

[Former President tack50]

Wow, BQ winning Quebec! Are they still actively trying for separatism or have they evolved into a sort of "Quebec interests" party after the failed referendums and what not?

[EastAnglianLefty]

What's the likelihood of either Wilson-Raybould or Philpotts winning as an independent? I guess that might be relevant to the electoral calculus if Lib + NDP is about the same as Con.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Why have the Liberals lost so much ground in the Atlantic since their sweep last time? Dogsh**t provincial governments?

[lilTommy]

What's the likelihood of either Wilson-Raybould or Philpotts winning as an independent? I guess that might be relevant to the electoral calculus if Lib + NDP is about the same as Con.

I think, my observation, is that Wilson-Raybould has a better chance of winning then Philpott does.

[DC Al Fine]

Wow, BQ winning Quebec! Are they still actively trying for separatism or have they evolved into a sort of "Quebec interests" party after the failed referendums and what not?

It's an internal party divide. They had a hardline seperatist leader who got turfed last year. The Quebec interest types are firmly in control right now.

Why have the Liberals lost so much ground in the Atlantic since their sweep last time? Dogsh**t provincial governments?

Partially, but a lot of it is just regression to the mean. Harper was a uniquely bad fit for the region and he reformed unemployment benefits in his last term, which is a perpetual vote loser in Atlantic Canada, where seasonal unemployment is a way of life (see also: 1997).  Those factors aren't there anymore, or at least aren't as fresh in voters minds.

[jaichind]

What's the likelihood of either Wilson-Raybould or Philpotts winning as an independent? I guess that might be relevant to the electoral calculus if Lib + NDP is about the same as Con.

I think, my observation, is that Wilson-Raybould has a better chance of winning then Philpott does.

Why are CON and NDP contesting those seats.  Should they not step aside to back these two to highlight their concern and anger over the Lavalin affair ?  Especially when Wilson-Raybould seat it seems neither CON nor NDP has much of a chance anyway.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

What's the likelihood of either Wilson-Raybould or Philpotts winning as an independent? I guess that might be relevant to the electoral calculus if Lib + NDP is about the same as Con.

Fairly low for Jane Philpott I would think. Jody Wilson-Raybould chance at victory is probably close to 50/50 at this point.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/BarackObama/status/1184528998669389824

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/BarackObama/status/1184528998669389824

eLeCtIoN mEdDlInG

[Walmart_shopper]

https://twitter.com/BarackObama/status/1184528998669389824

If only Justin can get Trump to endorse Scheer the Liberal majority will be cemented.

[lilTommy]

What's the likelihood of either Wilson-Raybould or Philpotts winning as an independent? I guess that might be relevant to the electoral calculus if Lib + NDP is about the same as Con.

I think, my observation, is that Wilson-Raybould has a better chance of winning then Philpott does.

Why are CON and NDP contesting those seats.  Should they not step aside to back these two to highlight their concern and anger over the Lavalin affair ?  Especially when Wilson-Raybould seat it seems neither CON nor NDP has much of a chance anyway.

That generally doesn't happen in Canada; parties generally still want their names on the ballot for party loyalists, polling, etc. Their also use to be a deposit issue up until 2017, if you got under a certain % of the vote you lost your deposit.
By-elections we see smaller parties, like the Greens in particular, that used to bow out (most recently in Burnaby South)
Their has been some un-official campaigning by May for Wilson-Raybould and I wouldn't be surprised if many NDP/Green and even LPC voters were happy if she won. Independents though, don't last very long in Canadian Parliaments from what I remember

[MaxQue]

What's the likelihood of either Wilson-Raybould or Philpotts winning as an independent? I guess that might be relevant to the electoral calculus if Lib + NDP is about the same as Con.

I think, my observation, is that Wilson-Raybould has a better chance of winning then Philpott does.

Why are CON and NDP contesting those seats.  Should they not step aside to back these two to highlight their concern and anger over the Lavalin affair ?  Especially when Wilson-Raybould seat it seems neither CON nor NDP has much of a chance anyway.

Because Wilson-Raybould was a very incompetent Justice minister.

[DC Al Fine]

What's the likelihood of either Wilson-Raybould or Philpotts winning as an independent? I guess that might be relevant to the electoral calculus if Lib + NDP is about the same as Con.

I think, my observation, is that Wilson-Raybould has a better chance of winning then Philpott does.

Why are CON and NDP contesting those seats.  Should they not step aside to back these two to highlight their concern and anger over the Lavalin affair ?  Especially when Wilson-Raybould seat it seems neither CON nor NDP has much of a chance anyway.

That generally doesn't happen in Canada; parties generally still want their names on the ballot for party loyalists, polling, etc. Their also use to be a deposit issue up until 2017, if you got under a certain % of the vote you lost your deposit.
By-elections we see smaller parties, like the Greens in particular, that used to bow out (most recently in Burnaby South)
Their has been some un-official campaigning by May for Wilson-Raybould and I wouldn't be surprised if many NDP/Green and even LPC voters were happy if she won. Independents though, don't last very long in Canadian Parliaments from what I remember

This

The most relevant and recent examples are Andre Arthur (Tories bowed out in '08 and '11 but he was almost a de facto Tory), and Bill Casey (only the Greens bailed).

[lilTommy]

First "Progressive" candidate to step aside to endorse another. The ABCs have begun.
Greens endorsing the NDP in Edmonton-Strathcona

https://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/election-2019/edmonton-strathcona-green-party-candidate-quits-endorses-ndp

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

https://twitter.com/BarackObama/status/1184528998669389824

Neo Liberal shill!

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://twitter.com/BarackObama/status/1184528998669389824

Neo Liberal shill!

Obama loves phonies. Justin Trudeau was recently in some climate change protest. Maybe he was protesting Prime Minister Justin Trudeau who wants to drill all the tar sands, raising global temperatures by 0.15C by itself.

[Hatman 🍁]

Why have the Liberals lost so much ground in the Atlantic since their sweep last time? Dogsh**t provincial governments?

Probably a small sample size in the Angus Reid poll. We still have them well ahead. Not quite as much as in 2015, but as DC mentioned it's more of a reversion to the mean.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

https://twitter.com/BarackObama/status/1184528998669389824

Honestly, this is such bullish-t to me. What the hell does Barack Obama know about Indigenous issues and the horrendous way Trudeau has used these communities as props? There are other progressive options in the race.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

https://twitter.com/BarackObama/status/1184528998669389824

Honestly, this is such bullish-t to me. What the hell does Barack Obama know about Indigenous issues and the horrendous way Trudeau has used these communities as props? There are other progressive options in the race.

He doesn't. But he probably likes Justin and had a personal friendship. And that's sometimes all it takes.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

https://twitter.com/BarackObama/status/1184528998669389824

Honestly, this is such bullish-t to me. What the hell does Barack Obama know about Indigenous issues and the horrendous way Trudeau has used these communities as props? There are other progressive options in the race.

He doesn't. But he probably likes Justin and had a personal friendship. And that's sometimes all it takes.

I guess I just hoped Obama was above being a brash sycophant.

[Oryxslayer]

So, I have not been following this election that much beyond the newspapers. This is especially shocking considering how much effort I poured into keeping on top of Quebec and Ontario's elections. Anyway, my question to all the Canadians is: how likely is govt gridlock post-election similar to what happened in Spain? If polls and history is to be trusted, the Libs will more likely than not be positioned to form the next govt, but not without some NDP/Bloc cooperation. In such a situation, Trudeau will no doubt try to stand firm to the history of Canadian minority govts, but Singh seems to want more from the Liberal government than just "not the Tories." So what's the chance we end up with a prolonged coalition vs minority standoff?

[Pragmatic Conservative]

https://mobile.twitter.com/quito_maggi/status/1184618084700696576

[Walmart_shopper]

The Libs won Manitoba in 1997, Quito.

But, seriously. I think he's right. Ontario probably will save the Grits' majority.

[DL]

In 1997 the Liberals just barely eked out a majority by five seats...but they didn’t just win Ontario that year. They won 101 out of 103 seats in Ontario due to the conservative vote being split down the middle between the PCs and the Reform Party.. I expect the Liberals to get a plurality off seats in Ontario and to likely end up with more seats than the Tories in a minority parliament, but if anyone tunings the Liberals will win all but one or two seats in Ontario like they did in 1997, all I can say is, you’ve gotta be nuts