Canadian Election 2019

[King of Kensington]

NDP vote dropped in Sarnia too, a riding that seems to be fool's gold for them.

[King of Kensington]

Seat composition in three regional pockets with a history of industrial trade unionism and working class social democracy.

Windsor-Essex

2019  NDP 1, Liberals 1, Conservatives 1
2015 NDP 3
2011 NDP 2, Conservatives 1
2008 NDP 2, Conservatives 1
2006 NDP 2, Conservatives 1

Hamilton-Niagara

2019 Liberals 4, Conservatives 3, NDP 2
2015 Liberals 4, Conservatives 3, NDP 2
2011 NDP 4, Conservatives 4
2008 NDP 4, Conservatives 4
2006 Conservatives 4, NDP 3, Liberals 1

Northern Ontario

2019 Liberals 6, NDP 2, Conservatives 1
2015 Liberals 7, NDP 2
2011 NDP 6, Conservatives 3
2008 NDP 7, Conservatives 2, Liberals 1
2006 Liberals 7, NDP 2

[King of Kensington]

June 2019 Abacus poll:

Private sector union

Liberals  38%
Conservatives  30%
NDP  17%

Public sector union

Liberals  35%
Conservatives  24%
NDP  21%

Not in a union

Conservatives  34%
Liberals  31%
NDP  15%
 

https://abacusdata.ca/tight-race-between-conservatives-and-liberals-continues-as-voter-fluidity-remains-high/

[King of Kensington]

It's interesting that the right hasn't advanced as much in these areas as demographic trends in other Western democracies (US, France, UK) would suggest. Sure, you had Kenora and a few swings towards the Tories in various places, but the rural and blue-collar center-left seems oddly resistant in Ontario. Unionization perhaps? Higher indigenous populations in Northern ridings? I've wondered about this for a few years.

Should also note these regions with a tradition of class-based support for the ''labor party'' went NDP in the last provincial election and resisitedn even though Doug Ford had a strong blue collar/populist appeal.

[King of Kensington]

Looking at these poll by polls in inner Toronto it seems that the closet thing to an NDP "base" is in less affluent but gentrifying areas - Dufferin Grove, parts of Parkdale, Kensington Market area, Greenwood-Coxwell.  The Liberals and, in relative terms, the Greens do better among the "post-partisan" professionals.

Davenport has the most of that and no big upper middle class concentrations in it so it makes sense it's the strongest riding for the NDP.  There's a dropoff in the NDP vote when you hit St. Clair when "hip" Toronto gives way to a heavily Portuguese working class area but it's only a small pocket of the riding.

Parkdale-High Park, in contrast, has an affluent western side which is harder for the NDP to win, particularly without Peggy Nash's incumbency.

[King of Kensington]

The progressive center of gravity in Toronto has shifted westward.  Parkdale-High Park and Davenport were not in play for the federal NDP in the Broadbent era.

[King of Kensington]

Average income

University-Rosedale  $98,820
St. Paul's  $92,952
Spadina-Fort York  $66,906
Parkdale-High Park  $57,459
Beaches-East York  $56,130
Danforth  $54,560
Toronto Centre  $49,909
Davenport  $40,586

Top Decile

University-Rosedale  24.9%
St. Paul's  24.9%
Spadina-Fort York  19.2%
Parkdale-High Park  18.8%
Danforth  17.9%
Beaches-East York  16.7%
Toronto Centre  12.2%
Davenport  7.8%

Rent

Toronto Centre  70.9%
St. Paul's  60.5%
University-Rosedale  57.8%
Parkdale-High Park  57.5%
Spadina-Fort York  56.8%
Davenport  48.7%
Danforth  44.7%
Beaches-East York  44.4%

University Degree

University-Rosedale  67.2%
Spadina-Fort York  66.3%
St. Paul's  60.5%
Toronto Centre  56.4%
Parkdale-High Park  54.6%
Danforth  49.5%
Beaches-East York  46.8%
Davenport  38.1%

From these figures, PHP and Danforth are rather socioeconomically similar, though PHP has more renters.  Davenport seems to be the right mix of cultural workers/young people/few affluent people for the NDP.  Toronto Centre perhaps shows the most NDP "potential" as evidenced by the big swing in the provincial election - though it has a rather bifurcated character (Spadina-Fort York with lower incomes and more social housing).

[King of Kensington]

Link to those stats? I want to compare ridings in other metros.

https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2016/dp-pd/prof/index.cfm?Lang=E

[King of Kensington]

Looks like in Essex County, Tories pretty much cleaned up all the rural polls even ones in 2011 they failed to win, while it was the towns in Essex riding NDP won and Windsor NDP/Liberal so classic rural/urban split.

SW Ontario has a fair number of "rurban" ridings with a sizable manufacturing presence.  Essex, Sarnia, Chatham, Oxford etc.

[King of Kensington]

Looks like in Essex County, Tories pretty much cleaned up all the rural polls even ones in 2011 they failed to win, while it was the towns in Essex riding NDP won and Windsor NDP/Liberal so classic rural/urban split.

SW Ontario has a fair number of "rurban" ridings with a sizable manufacturing presence.  Essex, Sarnia, Chatham, Oxford etc.

But also, in a repeat of a pattern elsewhere (Western Canada, especially), electoral patterns are "sorting" much more dramatically on the Conservatives' behalf in rural/agricultural areas.  Whereas until quite recently, rural Essex retained a certain ancestral Windsor-zone "agrarian elasticity".

Yes, a lot of people work in manufacturing in SW Ontario likely live in a rural-ish setting, and they're more conservative than working class urban centers like Windsor. 

[King of Kensington]

You get an even better sense of ''urban left''-friendly demographics if you look at the old ward demographics which were close to federal/provincial ridings split in half.

Average income

Former Ward 32, Beaches-East York (Beaches)  $68,457
Former Ward 13, Parkdale-High Park (Swansea, Bloor West Village)  $66,833
Former Ward 30, Toronto-Danforth (Riverdale, Leslieville)  $55,953
Former Ward 29, Toronto-Danforth (Broadview, Greektown)  $55,081
Former Ward 14, Parkdale-High Park (Parkdale, Roncesvalles)  $47,164
Former Ward 18, Davenport (Dufferin Grove, Little Portugal)  $40,926
Former Ward 17, Davenport (Corso Italia, Pelham Park)  $39,246

Age 20-39

Former Ward 18, Davenport (Dufferin Grove, Little Portugal)  44%
Former Ward 14, Parkdale-High Park (Parkdale, Roncesvalles)  38%
Former Ward 17, Davenport (Corso Italia, Pelham Park)  33%
Former Ward 30, Toronto-Danforth (Riverdale, Leslieville)  31%
Former Ward 13, Parkdale-High Park (Swansea, Bloor West Village)  30%
Former Ward 29, Toronto-Danforth (Broadview, Greektown)  28%
Former Ward 32, Beaches-East York (Beaches)  26%

Rent

Former Ward 14, Parkdale-High Park (Parkdale, Roncesvalles)  70%
Former Ward 18, Davenport (Dufferin Grove, Little Portugal)  56%
Former Ward 29, Toronto-Danforth (Broadview, Greektown)  48%
Former Ward 13, Parkdale-High Park (Swansea, Bloor West Village)  45%
Former Ward 30, Toronto-Danforth (Riverdale, Leslieville)  42%
Former Ward 32, Beaches-East York (Beaches)  41%
Former Ward 17, Davenport (Corso Italia, Pelham Park)  40%

Occupations in Art and Culture

Former Ward 14, Parkdale-High Park (Parkdale, Roncesvalles)  13%
Former Ward 18, Davenport (Dufferin Grove, Little Portugal)  13%
Former Ward 30, Toronto-Danforth (Riverdale, Leslieville)  12%
Former Ward 32, Beaches-East York (Beaches)  11%
Former Ward 13, Parkdale-High Park (Swansea, Bloor West Village)  10%
Former Ward 29, Toronto-Danforth (Broadview, Greektown)  9%
Former Ward 17, Davenport (Corso Italia, Pelham Park)  6%

[King of Kensington]

But look at the SW. Big swings to PCs in Essex, Sarnia, Welland, etc. Basically Ontario's "midwest".

And Vaughan is Ontario's "Staten Island."