Canadian Election 2019

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Unless there's a last-minute stop-Scheer swing from the NDP/Greens to the Libs, that is...

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Re potential NDP over/underperformance:  I wouldn't be surprised if thanks to the Jagmeet factor, this'll be one election where there's a lot more voter enthusiasm among the young than among the old, the latter whom are likelier to abide by the media party line of the campaign being all dreary negativity and "why bother"--thus a shallower gradation btw/younger and older turnout than the norm...

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EPP's final tally: 145 Lib, 120 Con, 37 Bloc, 32 NDP, 3 Green, 1 PPC.

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It's Fredericton, not Beausejour.

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To be honest, I don't think the Liberals are going to do as good as the others in this thread think. Atlantic Canada, which is typically titanium L, is showing to be a mural of not only red, but also blue, and a little green and orange. If this is how they're doing in THEIR territory, may God help them as this night goes on.

Although to be honest, the night is still very young, and anything can truly happen.

Most of the seats that flipped are basically Safe Tory, it's not a massive concern for the Grits. West Nova an exception though - anyone know what's happening there?

Strong Tory candidate (he's an MLA in the region).

Makes sense. Suppose I underestimate just how elastic Canada is.

Also, Lib candidate caught up in a youthful social-media scandal.

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Going up fast; but little W of Ontario so far.

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And re the Bloc in Quebec: my sense was correct in how today's Bloc has less "urban appeal" than it once did, i.e. strongholds like LSM, Hochelaga, Quebec eluding them...

The fact that in LSM, the NDP finished ahead of the Bloc says everything.

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So much for PPC Ford Nation: Renata Ford got 2.8% in Etobicoke North, barely above the Greens.

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Wow, the left wing blew dozens of seats by splitting the vote, fdck them.

Arguably, that always happens in Canada.

That's depressing bro.

Ah, such is Americans not accustomed to electoral orders that aren't strictly binary.

What *I* find depressing is how the Cons just keep getting more stratospheric in the West, i.e. all the 75%+ and even 80%+  mandates with opposition all in single digits--and really, that should be depressing to *them*, too, in a dumbed-down "why bother having elections?" way...

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What *I* find depressing is how the Cons just keep getting more stratospheric in the West, i.e. all the 75%+ and even 80%+  mandates with opposition all in single digits--and really, that should be depressing to *them*, too, in a dumbed-down "why bother having elections?" way...

Between that and a few other things, I'm starting to think that for the health of the Canadian polity (if not necessarily the party) it would be a good idea for the NDP to have a Westerner as leader for a while.

Similarly, the Tories probably should put a non-westerner in charge at some point

Had Charlie Angus won the NDP leadership, he'd probably have gone a good way t/w that end.

But really; is there any end in sight?  These Western Con seats are looking like cartoons of electoral democracy.  They're...electoral swamps, like provincial Liberal seats in Anglo Montreal or "urban" Dem congressional districts in the US.  That.  Is.  Not.  Healthy.  

I mean, I might be fine with the Cons getting 2/3 of the vote in such ridings--but 4/5 or 5/6, sheesh.  *No wonder* this election's been followed by rekindled talk of Western separation...

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I'm not saying the left wing would take all of them, that's why I labeled many tossup, but like there is no doubt vote splitting cost the left wing like a couple dozen seats ish.

***So.  Freaking.  What.***  Such is non-binary FPTP.  You win some, you lose some.

And y'know; whatever one's partisanship, that's what makes Canadian elections and election results so much more *interesting* than when it's pared down to a strict US-style binary.  Like, take a Lib-NDP marginal race like Davenport; if it were the US, the seat would be 80-90% Democratic.  *Bo-ring*...

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I'm going to be contrarian, and suggest that this is a very good result for the NDP in that it will be a great opportunity for them.

The result is very similar to Jack's first election in 2004. 4th place, 16% of the vote, Liberal-led minority government. The big difference was the gain in seats, but they only won a paltry 19 seats. Another difference was that the NDP didn't quite hold the balance of power. But, now they do. The NDP has more power now than they did in 2011 when they were opposition.

The minority governments of the 2000s were great for the NDP, and ultimately led to the Orange crush in 2011. The same could happen now.

Not too long ago, the NDP were poised for a single digit election night, but Jagmeet pulled them out from that. Sure, it fell rather short from what we hoped, but it's still a relief. Jagmeet is a great campaigner, he's not going anywhere.

I agree here; even if it was a comedown from Jagmeetmania's hopes as well as 2015's raw numbers, Jagmeet comes out of this in a *lot* better shape than Mulcair in 2015.

And if it's a *meh* result like 2015, it's coming from the opposite direction--for Mulcair, it was a comedown from being on the brink of victory; for Jagmeet, it was a come-*up* for a party that seemed, a month or two ago, poised for a rock-bottom Audrey '93 reprise.  And if anything, the final result was vestigially pressed down by those recently-prevailing circumstances; that is, the NDP as a broke and sick party--but even if Jagmeetmania was too little too late and still a little too fairy-dustish, it finally blazed a trail away from broke-sickdom...

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Bloc got a swing towards them in 77 of the 78 Quebec ridings.

And -5.5 in Laurier--Ste-Marie.

Of course, that was with Gilles Duceppe running in 2015--but they were even behind the NDP in *2019*.

Essentially, seats like LSM, Hochelaga, and Quebec which once would have been central to the PQ/BQ urban-social-democratic base are increasingly defined by a "millennial cosmopolitanism" that's more inclined t/w the Lib-NDP-Green-QS realm.  And if they're out of Bloc reach today, it's for roughly the same reasons why, provincially, they're out of CAQ reach.  Today's Bloc has better fish to fry elsewhere.

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The Toronto seat the Tories were closest in was Willowdale (12.9% Liberal margin, down from 16.4%) followed by Scarborough-Agincourt (13.1% Liberal margin, down from 13.9%) and then York Centre (13.7% Liberal margin, up from 2.9%).

Willowdale is weird--I suppose it's candidate-related; otherwise, it's the kind of seat I'd imagine swinging increasingly *leftward* with all the North York Centre condo asparagus...

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I'm not saying the left wing would take all of them, that's why I labeled many tossup, but like there is no doubt vote splitting cost the left wing like a couple dozen seats ish.

***So.  Freaking.  What.***  Such is non-binary FPTP.  You win some, you lose some.

And y'know; whatever one's partisanship, that's what makes Canadian elections and election results so much more *interesting* than when it's pared down to a strict US-style binary.  Like, take a Lib-NDP marginal race like Davenport; if it were the US, the seat would be 80-90% Democratic.  *Bo-ring*...

Excitement and how interesting something is? Wut? This isn't some game. A safe and boring left wing hold sounds just fine, thank you very much.

Also, this benefitted the left wing in canada in almost no races whatsover, instead it prolly cost the left wing a couple dozen seats. So f%ck that, bring on the mundane.

You have to realize, though: in this forum, you're dealing with psephologists.  Election geeks who are into poll-by-poll statistics and election maps and whatnot: documents which express the electoral "soul" of the land, if you will.  We may have our political inclinations; but we're willing to suspend them on behalf of fascinated bystanderdom relative to maps like this (Toronto 2011: a wonderful patchwork of blue, red, and orange)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-a0qWaCgupOk/Tib2R82-bRI/AAAAAAAAAGs/NAsWVtrTH2Q/s1600/toronto2011.png
It's kind of like opting for an electoral Route 66 over the electoral Interstate.  And if you'd rather take the Interstate even as a "leisurely" option, that's your problem.

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The comments about Scheer and Singh's results are classic Atlas.

Scheer: +25 seats, wins the popular vote. "He has to go"
Singh: -15 seats, worst share in 15 years. "Here's a list of reasons why he should stay"

Scheer and Singh were both unknowns in their first campaigns. Scheer’s personal popularity plummeted over the course of the campaign and he now has the highest net disapproval of any of the party leaders. His performance w as very weak in the campaign and Canadians just don’t like him. He reminds me failed Ontario PC leader Tim Hudak.

Singh in contrast saw his stock go way up during the campaign and he now has sky high net approval. He was dealt very bad cards but he played them well.

Also, there are lots of viable alternatives to Scheer as Tory leader. The NDP has no viable alternative to Singh.

Plus, the NDP literally can't *afford* a leadership contest now.  Whereas the Cons eternally can.

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Do people speculate about coalitions every time a Canadian election produces a minority government, or is something unique about this time around?

Not usually, but given the proposed coalition back in 2008-9 (and the Tories raising the specter of it again in the 2011 campaign) it gets mentioned now more than it used to be.

Two things to that:

First, there's a much sharper Lib-Con divide now than there was back in the days of the PCs.  And secondly, a lot of the present coalition talk was contingent on the likelihood of the Cons getting a seat plurality as well as a vote plurality--which, of course, didn't happen.  So now that the Libs have a clear seat plurality, the coalition discussion's toned down--it's more likely that we'll see a reprise of the NDP contingency-support of Lib minorities in the 60s and 70s, than an outright coalition...

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Gutted at Ruth Ellen losing, she could have been the next NDP leader.

Being a folk hero doesn't make one a national leadership contender.

Though in that folk-hero light, there might be an argument that Jenica Atwin's the new Ruth Ellen Brosseau.  (And I *can* see her ultimately parlaying that folk-heroness into leadership--or at least, she's a readymade answer to "who could possibly succeed Elizabeth May".)

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Trudeau talks and comes off like an effeminate hippy and a hardcore SJW. That's not 100% true mind you, but those elements are there in his personality, and if you dislike thise things you will latch onto them. He is EXTREMELY minority-friendly and LGBTQ-friendly as well. You can see how some traditional conservatives will view this. His actual policy isn't noticed as much as his personality by his detractors, but they DO notice when he does controversial liberal things like giving taxpayer money to Syrian refugees and dressing full-on Indian on his trip to India.

TL;DR: He isn't a "man's man" that you want to drink beer, watch hockey and chase girls with, he's a liberal p__sy.

Though it doesn't quite explain the Cons' reach in places like Mayor Nenshi's Calgary.

When it comes to the urban West, it's a matter of being minority/LGBTQ-friendly on their own terms.  (Remember how as a federal politician, Jason Kenney was basically *the* Conservative face for multicultural outreach)

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Incidentally, I did a quick once-over of a united NDP-Green result, and they had the net plurality in an additional 7 Liberal seats and 1 Conservative seat.  (I could be off a bit.  Or not.)

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The East-West split has been around for quite a few years and has taken different forms in terms of which party does well where. As a general rule, the same party doesn't do well in both urban Ontario and the Prairies (unless it's a big landslide).

And Manitoba takes a middling position between Ontario and Alberta/Saskatchewan.

Speaking of that, I wonder if it might be argued that a vestigial "Scheer effect" even leaked eastward into Northern Ontario--obviously with the Kenora pickup, but also in the Conservatives being second *everywhere else* except Sudbury and Nickel Belt--yes, even unexpectedly versus the NDP's Angus and Hughes...

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Speaking of that, I wonder if it might be argued that a vestigial "Scheer effect" even leaked eastward into Northern Ontario--obviously with the Kenora pickup, but also in the Conservatives being second *everywhere else* except Sudbury and Nickel Belt--yes, even unexpectedly versus the NDP's Angus and Hughes...

It's not a "Scheet effect", no. Trudeau's not really too popular in Northern Ontario compared to 2015, and Singh's not as popular of a leader that past NDP leaders were because of reasons (guess which ones!). That being said, the Liberals still did pretty well in the region. And Kenora has a history of electing Conservatives too, both federally and provincially.

Though I'm also taking calibre of candidates and conventional wisdom into account (the incoming Kenora Con being a lot "rawer" than Greg Rickford--though in a funny way, I wonder whether Premier Ford's Kenora visit actually *helped* CPC here).

And in some ways, my point might be more regarding seats like Algoma (where 2015's Lib candidate was running again) and Timmins--even if Justin was less popular, few would have called for *those* seats to be second-place Conservative unless Scheer was polling in clear seat-plurality territory...

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Globally it appears that populist or right-leaning parties have gained ground in rural areas, while more liberal, centrist, or left-wing parties have lost ground in rural areas while making gains in urban areas. However in Canada the Liberals who epitomize liberalism and centrism have held strongly onto rural areas of Atlantic Canada, while completely being removed from the picture in the rural prairies. This is not the first time this has happened I believe, but what drives this?

For example if you hop over the border to Maine or even Upstate New York we saw huge swing to Trump in 2016. Why aren't these trends playing out in Canada?

More of a "Celtic Fringe" dynamic in the Maritimes.  Even the provincial Tories tend to be more Ruth Davidson-like.

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I'm sort of surprised I missed Edmonton-Wetaskiwin, either a larger electorate or just significantly higher turnout (I'm assuming the latter as I'm assuming it's a more suburban riding).

The population went up from 110,000 in 2011 to nearly 160,000 in 2016.  A beneficiary of boomburbia, much like Vaughan in 1993.

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With all the talk of votes vs seat pluralities, it's interesting how when it comes to Student Vote Canada, the third place party in votes got the most seats, and the party with the most votes was third place in seats.  (And nobody got more than 25.1% of the vote.)
 https://studentvote.ca/canada/results/