Canadian Election 2019

[Jeppe]

When we're dealing with certain polls that show CPC with the only *double digit* share in Sask, then it's like being non-NDP provincially in Edmonton in 2015, or non-Lib federally in the Maritimes in 2015.

Oh, and today's Nanos shows Lib bouncing back into the lead--and the NDP sorta-correcting itself after a week or so in the Nanos doldrums (12.7 to 14.5; the same that the Cons dropped by).  The Greens also corrected themselves after a one-day down blip, at the expense of the Bloc, so to speak (who are back below 5% after several days of blackface-boosted overachievement)

Yeah, those SK numbers are not accurate. The population in Regina and Saskatoon are still majority left-leaning, it’s just that the vote split is very amenable to the Tories in a lot of urban seats here.

[adma]

Speaking of today's Nanos it has the Greens (!) second in Atlantic Canada (granted, a very distant second, but still).

If that were the case, then forget CPC takebacks in NB et al  (Speaking of which, how well's PPC doing out there?)

[Njall]

Mainstreet has the NDP in third in Stratchona and the Conservatives retaking Edmonton-Mill Woods.  Will there be any non-Conservative seats in AB/SK after this election?

FWIW, I work in Edmonton Strathcona and from all I can see, there's no way that the NDP are in third here. Inasmuch as lawn signs on private property are an indicator, the NDP is leading the way with the Conservatives in second and Liberals in a distant third. Linda Duncan is doing everything she can here to get Heather McPherson elected as her successor.

[Poirot]

Mainstreet riding poll for Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques.

BQ 29. LPC 25, CPC 18, NDP 15, Green 6, PPC 2

Margin of error is 4%. Bloc has a big lead with younger voters which is starnge since it usually doesn't do well with that age group.

https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/sondage-mainstreet-legere-avance-du-bloc-a-rimouski-b8258222c1c92c6ebf93dbbbd8a64131

The mayor of Rimouski has said people should for for the candidate from the party most likely to win because it is easier to get projects realised when you have a voice in government.

Léger had a poll recently showing the Bloc first in a three way race in the Rest of Quebec (not Montreal area or Quebec City) so the riding poll would confirm this, the Bloc can be competitive in some areas.

[Poirot]

May, Blanchet and Trudaeu are at the climate march in Montreal. Greta Thunberg is there also. It is expected to be big. Singh is at a march in Victoria.

[King of Kensington]

Given the close calls in York Region last time (and 50%+ PC vote there provincially last year) what's the likelihood it'll be blue while the rest of the 905 GTA stays mostly red?

[mileslunn]

Given the close calls in York Region last time (and 50%+ PC vote there provincially last year) what's the likelihood it'll be blue while the rest of the 905 GTA stays mostly red?

Possible, but I think Durham region will be almost as competitive.  Halton region could too, but hard to say as more your traditional fiscal conservatives who would be turned off by Ford but were okay with Harper.  Peel region will likely be the Tory's weakest and wouldn't be surprised if Liberals sweep this again.

[adma]

Given the close calls in York Region last time (and 50%+ PC vote there provincially last year) what's the likelihood it'll be blue while the rest of the 905 GTA stays mostly red?

Possible, but I think Durham region will be almost as competitive.  Halton region could too, but hard to say as more your traditional fiscal conservatives who would be turned off by Ford but were okay with Harper.  Peel region will likely be the Tory's weakest and wouldn't be surprised if Liberals sweep this again.

Keep in mind, though, w/Durham Region, the best PC result there last year was lower than the worst PC result in York Region.

[Don Vito Corleone]

Speaking of today's Nanos it has the Greens (!) second in Atlantic Canada (granted, a very distant second, but still).

If that were the case, then forget CPC takebacks in NB et al  (Speaking of which, how well's PPC doing out there?)

Not very well, as you'd expect.

[urutzizu]

Made this mainly for self-interest, but Asian Canadians are a very important and fast growing electorate, so here are their candidates being run by the two major parties:



Both Slates are quite diverse, but the Conservatives seem to be running more East-Asian, esp. Chinese and Korean Candidates, as well as more Pakistani-Canadians, while the Liberals seem to be running more Indian-Canadians.

[Poirot]

Mianstreet riding poll for Laurier-Sainte-Marie. Margin of error is 4% and pollster for this one included the candidate's name. Don't know if the pollster will start doing this going forward after the declaration deadline but here it helps the very well known environmentalist Steven Guilbeault.

https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/elections-2019/sondage-mainstreet-large-avance-pour-guilbeault-dans-laurier-sainte-marie-882ad296c54cebe4562033452d6b141d

LPC 41, Bloc 27, NDP 13, Green 9, CPC and PPC 4

I thought it would be hard for the NDP to hold it considering general level of support but could retain more support since it is one of the target.

[DC Al Fine]

I had a chance to drive around Halifax the past few days, so here is my unscientific take on the sign war.

Darmouth-Cole Harbour: Liberals have far and away the most. Tories have a repeat candidate so they had a decent enough number of signs up quickly. Few NDP and no Green signs.

Halifax: Weird three way race between the Liberals, NDP and Greens, who are all running strong candidates and all have favourable parts of the riding. The old money part of Halifax has a few Tory signs but I didn't see them anywhere else.

Halifax West: Speaker Geoff Regan probably has the best organization of anyone in Halifax. Has had the most signs of anyone in the city. Tories and Greens both have solid #'s (Greens are running a city councilor). Very few NDP signs.

Sackville-Preston-Chezzetcook: Liberals have the most, with Tories in a close second. Most shocking part was how few NDP signs I saw. Traditionally Sackville would be plastered orange all campaign, but I guess the NDP organization in Sackville was more Peter Stoffer loyalists than NDP supporters.

[rob in cal]

  Quebec question.  Would there be a lot of potential tory voters who might vote tactically for the Bloc as a good way to defeat either a Liberal or NDP candidate, with the idea that a Bloc MP would be a potential vote for toleration of a minority Scheer government?

[DL]

  Quebec question.  Would there be a lot of potential tory voters who might vote tactically for the Bloc as a good way to defeat either a Liberal or NDP candidate, with the idea that a Bloc MP would be a potential vote for toleration of a minority Scheer government?

No. First of all very very few voters are that "strategic" and especially not in Quebec. There has been zero discussion of how the BQ would act in a minority situation and in fact if there was much discussion of the BQ being willing to tolerate a Scheer government - it would likely harm the BQ since a lot of their voters are very anti-Conservative. In any case the number of "core" Tory voters is very small in Quebec and any votes they get beyond the 15% mark are largely "non-of the-above" votes from people who might have voted NDP or BQ in the past..

[DL]

Just as an FYI, as i understand it, when Mainstreet does their riding polls they just ask a generic party vote question. They do not provide names of local candidates.

[mileslunn]

If BQ held the balance of power, my guess is we would have an election sometime next year, otherwise government wouldn't last long whomever formed power.  Still at the moment it looks like a Liberal government, question just whether a majority or minority.  Only thing Conservatives might have going for them is their supporters are more motivated so if turnout is low they may outperform polls.

[King of Kensington]

Keep in mind, though, w/Durham Region, the best PC result there last year was lower than the worst PC result in York Region.

Ajax/Pickering has increasingly become a suburban extension of (non-Chinese) Scarborough.

[VPH]

  Quebec question.  Would there be a lot of potential tory voters who might vote tactically for the Bloc as a good way to defeat either a Liberal or NDP candidate, with the idea that a Bloc MP would be a potential vote for toleration of a minority Scheer government?

No. First of all very very few voters are that "strategic" and especially not in Quebec. There has been zero discussion of how the BQ would act in a minority situation and in fact if there was much discussion of the BQ being willing to tolerate a Scheer government - it would likely harm the BQ since a lot of their voters are very anti-Conservative. In any case the number of "core" Tory voters is very small in Quebec and any votes they get beyond the 15% mark are largely "non-of the-above" votes from people who might have voted NDP or BQ in the past..

Really depends on what part of Quebec we're talking though. There is definitely a large Tory "core" vote in the Quebec City suburbs and exurbs.

[rob in cal]

  Just put a small wager against Scheer becoming next pm at predictit. Odds were about 40%, and that seems too high to me.

[adma]

Today's Nanos is bizarre: Libs dipped from 34.4 to 32.6, Cons up from 33.7 to 34.1, NDP down from 15 to 14.4, Bloc from 4.4 to 3.8, PPC 1.8 to 1.3--and Greens up from 10.5 to 13.2!!!

That made no sense to me, until I realized that it was a likely response to yesterday's Global Climate Strike protests.  So if this blip subsides, don't say I didn't warn you.

[DL]

I completely agree. The last few have seen more attention paid to climate change than ever before what with Greta Thunberg and all the climate strikes. IMHO for a couple of days you will see people saying they would vote Green as a way of expressing a sentiment that climate change is an important issue. It’s certainly not the result of people suddenly liking Elizabeth May anymore than they did before...she has actually campaigned poorly and had a lot of gaffes. I know that regional samples are small but it’s notable that in Quebec the BQ seemed to be the on the move when everyone was talking about Bill 21 and Quebec issues...but when the focus shifts to climate change the BQ drops because it’s an issue where they have nothing to say.

For the Conservatives the challenge in this campaign is that so far the issues that have dominated have been racism as a result of the blackface photos and now climate change, both issues that are very bad issues for them

[adma]

What I find interesting here is: has there ever been a tracking poll that's been so blatantly, and presumably momentarily and deceptively, swayed by something so electorally external as the climate protests?  It's like this reflects less of a voting-preference dynamic than a search-engine/likes/shares/retweets dynamic...

[Estrella]

This may be a little bit off topic, but I'd like to ask a question: why is the area around Québec City so c/Conservative? I've heard people saying it's because of radio poubelle, which would be understandable, but do radio stations really have such a huge impact on politics? And if they do, why aren't they popular in other parts of the province?

Plus, a somewhat related question: why is Beauce so right-wing and federalist, despite being lily-white Franco? Is Maurice Duplessis still alive there?

[adma]

Plus, a somewhat related question: why is Beauce so right-wing and federalist, despite being lily-white Franco? Is Maurice Duplessis still alive there?

It's sort of an entrepreneurial heartland for Quebec--somethimg to which Bernier-style economic libertarianism has long been suited.  (I think the old saw was something like Beauce being "Quebec's Alberta".)

[mileslunn]

Plus, a somewhat related question: why is Beauce so right-wing and federalist, despite being lily-white Franco? Is Maurice Duplessis still alive there?

It's sort of an entrepreneurial heartland for Quebec--somethimg to which Bernier-style economic libertarianism has long been suited.  (I think the old saw was something like Beauce being "Quebec's Alberta".)

Chaudiere-Appalaches region has lots of small business owners so a very entrepreneurial culture that you don't see as much elsewhere in Quebec.  Capitale Nationale is a bit different, although the central part of the city is pretty left wing, its more the suburban parts that go Conservative.  If you look back to pre-amalgmation boundaries, generally Tories do poorly in the Quebec City parts, but win the parts amalgmated which were suburbs before.  A lot of it is as second largest city, there is a strong anti-Montreal attitude so they generally go the opposite way Montreal leans.  Sort of like Calgary vs. Edmonton.