Canadian Election 2019

[King of Kensington]

Yes, the swing away from the Tories was among non-Orthodox.  Hampstead has more Orthodox Jews than Cedarvale does.  But it's so monolithically Jewish that I'm pretty sure that a majority of E day voters there were Jewish. 

[King of Kensington]

And many of those "affluent urban cultural class" voters in St. Paul's (and University-Rosedale) are Jewish as well (but obviously not voting by special ballot for religious reasons).

[King of Kensington]

In terms of the big three visible minority groups, it's pretty clear South Asian and Black Canadians vote massively Liberal.  Chinese are probably even split or have a slight Conservative lean.

[King of Kensington]

Could you do Scarborough North?

[King of Kensington]

The Scarborough maps are fascinating.  Goes from boring red "Bloc Scarberia" to the 2011 free for all/Tamil flirtation with the NDP/Karygiannis holding back a Chinese swing to the Tories to the 2015 to present scenario of mega-Liberal South Asians and increasingly Conservative Chinese Canadians.

[King of Kensington]

Regina

Conservatives  55,653  50.9%
NDP  23,793  21.8%
Liberals  23,793  21.6%

Saskatoon

Conservatives  67,693  50.6%
NDP  41,859  31.3%
Liberals  17,100  12.8%

[King of Kensington]

Unfortunately for the NDP Toronto lacks a more "naturally left" Winnipeg Centre/Hamilton Centre/east Van-type of seat.  The Liberal Party is popular among all classes and in racialized and immigrant communities.  Likely to be a red fortress for the indefinite future.

Only hope for them is an "urban hipster" Parkdale + southern Davenport seat and I doubt even that would have gone Liberal last year.

[King of Kensington]

The ultimate emblem of how the NDP dropped the ball in downtown Toronto: they even lost Toronto Island.  (Though the fact that Adam Vaughan's rep is that of a "community politics" Liberal helps--it's hard to see a Tony Ianno capturing Toronto Island progressives in quite the same way)

I wonder if they won the Island vote in 1993.

[King of Kensington]

From selected communities in West Van-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country.

West Vancouver

Conservatives 8,064 42.7%
Liberals 7,344 38.9%
Greens 2,074 11%
NDP 982 5.2%

Bowen Island

Liberals 899 39.3%
Greens 750 32.8%
NDP 299 13.1%
Conservatives 292 12.8%

Squamish

Liberals 4,016 33.5%
Greens 3,503 29.2%
Conservatives 2,134 17.8%
NDP 2,030 16.9%

Whistler

Liberals 2,608 40.7%
Greens 1,863 29.1%
Conservatives 1,051 16.4%
NDP 732 11.4%

Gibsons

Liberals 1,348 28.7%
Greens 1,318 28%
NDP 1,008 21.4%
Conservatives 890 18.9%

[King of Kensington]

Burnaby North-Seymour riding:

North Burnaby

NDP  11,707  35%
Liberals  10,727  32.1%
Conservatives  7,220  21.6%
Greens  2,473  7.4%

Seymour (North Vancouver)

Liberals  5,808  43.4%
NDP  3,316  24.8%
Conservatives  1,885  14.1%
Greens  1,777  13.3%

[King of Kensington]

Guess I need to get my eyes checked! 

[King of Kensington]

Three Toronto exurbs

Caledon  

Conservatives  14,519  40.8%
Liberals  13,247  37.2%
NDP  4,161  11.7%
Greens  2,778  7.8%

King  

Conservatives  6,663  50.3%
Liberals  4,628  34.9%
Greens  961  7.3%
NDP  729  5.5%

Whitchurch-Stouffville

Conservatives  7,433  31%
Liberals  7,421  31%  
Jane Philpott (Independent) 6,775  28.2%
NDP  1,298  5.4%
Greens  655  2.7%

[King of Kensington]

From Simcoe-Grey riding:

The Blue Mountains

Liberals  2,096  41%
Conservatives  1,829  35.8%
Greens  728  14.2%
NDP  368  7.2%

Collingwood

Liberals  5,055  40.7%
Conservatives  3,909  31.4%
Greens  1,873  15.1%
NDP  1,296  10.4%

Wasaga Beach

Conservatives  5,339  43.1%
Liberals  4,004  32.3%
NDP  1,490  12%
Greens  1,199  9.7%

New Tecumseth

Conservatives  8,545  44%
Liberals  6,197  31.9%
NDP  2,256  11.6%
Greens  1,828  9.4%

[King of Kensington]

The NDP apparently targeted Parkdale-High Park but lost by 10,000 votes.  Singh seemed to make more appearances there than anywhere else in Toronto.  How much can that be explained away by "no incumbency"?

Danforth also saw an 8000 vote loss.  No Jack effect this time?

[King of Kensington]

Agreed. Obviously Jagmeet Singh should get a pass for the Quebec losses, but going backwards in Toronto, when Trudeau was tainted by scandal is not good at all, and absolutely needs to be corrected next time around.

I'm curious what the NDP post-mortems about the area have concluded.

Singh has gotten a remarkably free pass in the NDP.  They're using the yardstick of "we could have lost party status" and "he did as well as Layton the first time out."

[King of Kensington]

Stratford votes very differently from the rest of the "rurban" riding of Perth-Wellington it is located in.

Stratford

Liberals  6,456  37.2%
Conservatives  5,067  29.2%
NDP  3,397  19.6%
Greens  1,942  11.2%

[King of Kensington]

What "Jagmeetmania"?

[King of Kensington]

You see North Toronto-ization in the Beaches too - the sort of eastern mirror image of Bloor West/Swansea.

[King of Kensington]

Mulcair's campaign was catastrophic indeed.  His defenders insisted "second best result ever."  With 44 seats that was technically true but highly misleading (as Ed Broadbent's 43 seats in 1988 was a bigger share of a smaller House of Commons).  Plus he lost 1 million votes and more than half the seats.

[King of Kensington]

Why did Jagmeet's NDP do so badly in Windsor?

[King of Kensington]

Looking at the results, it's interesting that Ajax had the highest Liberal share in the 905.  North Ajax has basically become the 905 extension of eastern Scarborough (and Scarborough-Rouge Park, at 62.1%, was the highest share for the Liberals in the country).  Conservatives are as weak in Ajax as they are in Brampton, but with no "Jagmeet effect" the NDP vote is lower too.

[King of Kensington]

The Liberal candidates in 2019 - Sandra Pupatello in Windsor West and Irek Kusmierczyk in Windsor-Tecumseh - were far superior to the poteaux they ran in 2015.

Ironically Pupatello is the one we heard the most about - but she was the one who didn't get elected.  Windsor West being the "inner city" seat (and Masse's longer incumbency) may have had something to do with it?

[King of Kensington]

London has really trended away from the Conservatives.  It was the NDP that benefitted from the wearing off of the Trudeau wave there.

[King of Kensington]

I'm guessing the Liberals received a plurality of the votes of union members.

[King of Kensington]

In Windsor specifically, maybe.  Nationally I'm sure the Liberals took it.  The NDP might have won it in 2011.