Canadian Election 2019

[adma]

And in today's Nanos: the Con swoon continues (from 35.5 to 34.3; Lib inched up from 32.9 to 33.1)

NDP also went down (14.0 to 12.; Green went up by almost as much (9.5 to 10.6); Bloc 5.3 to 5.8 and PPC 2.2 to 2.9 (highs for each party since Aug 2)

[Don Vito Corleone]

I’m not going to post the numbers, but today’s Nanos (last few Nanos polls actually) has the Liberals doing far better with 60 and above than 18 to 29. I checked some other polls, and aside from Forum (which also has the Conservatives leading with Enbys), they have the age relationship one would expect. It’s odd, wonder why that is.

[DC Al Fine]

I’m not going to post the numbers, but today’s Nanos (last few Nanos polls actually) has the Liberals doing far better with 60 and above than 18 to 29. I checked some other polls, and aside from Forum (which also has the Conservatives leading with Enbys), they have the age relationship one would expect. It’s odd, wonder why that is.

Trudeau making a play for the older white nationalist vote

Serious time; what are the margins of error like on the age crosstabs? Those can often be quite large sometimes, especially for some of the smaller ones like 18-29 or Atlantic Canadian voters. If a more plausible old Tory/younger progressive relationship is still within the margin of error, I'd say it's just noise. If it's outside the margin of error, and Nanos is the only non-lolForum pollster showkmg it, there might be a systematic error (against the Tories presumably).

[adma]

And if they're weaker among 18-29, might it be a matter of, on behalf of *whom*?  (I can see NDP/Green overperforming w/that cohort, perhaps at the expense of the Libs)

[Don Vito Corleone]

I’m not going to post the numbers, but today’s Nanos (last few Nanos polls actually) has the Liberals doing far better with 60 and above than 18 to 29. I checked some other polls, and aside from Forum (which also has the Conservatives leading with Enbys), they have the age relationship one would expect. It’s odd, wonder why that is.

Trudeau making a play for the older white nationalist vote

Serious time; what are the margins of error like on the age crosstabs? Those can often be quite large sometimes, especially for some of the smaller ones like 18-29 or Atlantic Canadian voters. If a more plausible old Tory/younger progressive relationship is still within the margin of error, I'd say it's just noise. If it's outside the margin of error, and Nanos is the only non-lolForum pollster showkmg it, there might be a systematic error (against the Tories presumably).

Doesn’t say what the MOEs are.

[DL]

FWIW, after all the hyperventilating, it seems to be that the electoral impact of Trudeau taking part in a minstrel show will be pretty marginal. If this had happened four years ago, it would have been fatal for Trudeau, but now he has a record as PM and that is something for people to balance this against. These scandals just don't seem to have the impact they once did.

The whole story likely did two things - it gave NDP leader Jagmeet Singh an opportunity to hit the ball out of the park with his reaction and to gain profile AND it torpedoes the Liberal strategy of going after Tory candidates for things they said or did in the past...but in the end i don't think it changes the fundamentals and I am still predicting what I predicted months ago - Liberals lose majority, remain largest party and a Trudeau minority gov't likely lasts a full 4 years

[DC Al Fine]

FWIW, after all the hyperventilating, it seems to be that the electoral impact of Trudeau taking part in a minstrel show will be pretty marginal. If this had happened four years ago, it would have been fatal for Trudeau, but now he has a record as PM and that is something for people to balance this against. These scandals just don't seem to have the impact they once did.

The whole story likely did two things - it gave NDP leader Jagmeet Singh an opportunity to hit the ball out of the park with his reaction and to gain profile AND it torpedoes the Liberal strategy of going after Tory candidates for things they said or did in the past...but in the end i don't think it changes the fundamentals and I am still predicting what I predicted months ago - Liberals lose majority, remain largest party and a Trudeau minority gov't likely lasts a full 4 years

I agree for the most part, but why a full four years?

[DC Al Fine]

I have the Wikipedia candidate list a quick skim to see which riding has the most candidates. Ottawa Centre appears to be the winner with a whopping twelve:

• All the major parties
• Two independents
• Animal Protection
• Christian Heritage
• Communist
• Libertarian
• National Citizens Alliance

That will make for an intreresting candidates debate.

[cp]

FWIW, after all the hyperventilating, it seems to be that the electoral impact of Trudeau taking part in a minstrel show will be pretty marginal. If this had happened four years ago, it would have been fatal for Trudeau, but now he has a record as PM and that is something for people to balance this against. These scandals just don't seem to have the impact they once did.

The whole story likely did two things - it gave NDP leader Jagmeet Singh an opportunity to hit the ball out of the park with his reaction and to gain profile AND it torpedoes the Liberal strategy of going after Tory candidates for things they said or did in the past...but in the end i don't think it changes the fundamentals and I am still predicting what I predicted months ago - Liberals lose majority, remain largest party and a Trudeau minority gov't likely lasts a full 4 years

Trudeau's travails last week have probably precluded any really aggressive/sanctimonious harping by the Liberals about some future Tory/NDP candidate's past misdeeds, but I don't think it has torpedoed any strategy. For one thing, if the misdeed is bad enough to be reported on the media and/or non-Liberal parties will do more than enough to make a (mini)scandal out of it. Also, I'm skeptical that the Liberals planned *that much* of their campaign strategy around anticipated Tory candidate embarrassments. Or at any rate, if they did plan their campaign around that, then they have much bigger problems than Trudeau in blackface!

[DL]

FWIW, after all the hyperventilating, it seems to be that the electoral impact of Trudeau taking part in a minstrel show will be pretty marginal. If this had happened four years ago, it would have been fatal for Trudeau, but now he has a record as PM and that is something for people to balance this against. These scandals just don't seem to have the impact they once did.

The whole story likely did two things - it gave NDP leader Jagmeet Singh an opportunity to hit the ball out of the park with his reaction and to gain profile AND it torpedoes the Liberal strategy of going after Tory candidates for things they said or did in the past...but in the end i don't think it changes the fundamentals and I am still predicting what I predicted months ago - Liberals lose majority, remain largest party and a Trudeau minority gov't likely lasts a full 4 years

I agree for the most part, but why a full four years?

I should have said that a "Liberal" minority would last a full four years...its possible Trudeau himself might not stick around the whole time. I just think that it will not be in the interest of the smaller parties to force an early election. The NDP and Greens will be broke for years to come. Its possible that after three years the government could fall because the NDP doesnt want to go into the next election having backed the government every step of the way...but I think we would be in a situation similar to Harper 2008-2011 where the minority government survives for a surprisingly long time because everyone is afraid to trigger a snap election.

[mileslunn]

FWIW, after all the hyperventilating, it seems to be that the electoral impact of Trudeau taking part in a minstrel show will be pretty marginal. If this had happened four years ago, it would have been fatal for Trudeau, but now he has a record as PM and that is something for people to balance this against. These scandals just don't seem to have the impact they once did.

The whole story likely did two things - it gave NDP leader Jagmeet Singh an opportunity to hit the ball out of the park with his reaction and to gain profile AND it torpedoes the Liberal strategy of going after Tory candidates for things they said or did in the past...but in the end i don't think it changes the fundamentals and I am still predicting what I predicted months ago - Liberals lose majority, remain largest party and a Trudeau minority gov't likely lasts a full 4 years

I agree for the most part, but why a full four years?

I should have said that a "Liberal" minority would last a full four years...its possible Trudeau himself might not stick around the whole time. I just think that it will not be in the interest of the smaller parties to force an early election. The NDP and Greens will be broke for years to come. Its possible that after three years the government could fall because the NDP doesnt want to go into the next election having backed the government every step of the way...but I think we would be in a situation similar to Harper 2008-2011 where the minority government survives for a surprisingly long time because everyone is afraid to trigger a snap election.

Depends on numbers.  If Liberals can rely on either Greens, NDP, or BQ then I think their chances are better as much like with Harper each can take turns.  If relying on one, probably will least at least 2 years, maybe 3, but four becomes a challenge.  Lets remember the Liberals supported Harper more than any other party while I don't think you will see the Conservatives even abstain (all they need to do) so that means for NDP they need to get votes in favour not just abstentions.  I think if Liberals form minority, government will last minimum 2 years agreed, but I doubt full four years.

[mileslunn]

I think if any impact of Black face, it forced Liberals to focus more on policies rather than gotcha moments.  If you look at since made several announcements of policies that would seem popular, although 3 of the 4 steal from other parties or are to counter others.  An assault weapons ban which is probably to trip up the Tories since either they support it and help the PPC split the right or as they have oppose it and they can attack them as being in the pockets of the gun lobby.  Most who feel civilians should be allowed to own these are already voting Tory so little downside and plenty up. 

Then there is the rise in basic personal exemption so I think that was in response to Scheer's universal tax cut which was more progressive and helped middle class more than Trudeau's 2015 middle class tax cut, so this was a way to regain the upper hand on being the party for middle class and those wishing to join it.  Also promise lower cell phone bills and now pharmacare which are also taken right from the NDP.

Biggest weakness is their policies unlike Tories and NDP haven't been fully costed and that leaves them somewhat vulnerable there.  Not on left flank as I don't think those on left are too concerned about higher taxes (since assume it will only hit higher income earners who they want to tax more) or deficits, but amongst centrist voters may concern some if it becomes a focal point.  I think Wynne and Horwarth fell short as people liked their promises, but felt they were unaffordable.  People aren't allergic to deficits, but they like to see some fiscal anchor even if not a balanced budget to show governments not spending like crazy.  Also for tax hikes on rich, PBO website shows only $400 million increase per % so unless they go after top three brackets, not just top, very little revenue to tap there.  Perhaps though copying from NDP, they will include a wealth tax and raise capital gains tax inclusion to 2/3 or 75% as both those would bring in far more revenue although still not quite enough to cover all promises, but at least a lot closer. 

[jaymichaud]

Mainstreet has their full three days of post brownface polling out. (Change from pre-brownface polling in parentheses)

Conservative: 34.8% (+0.4)
Liberal: 33.9% (-3.3)
NDP: 11.4% (+1.6)
Green: 10.7% (+0.6)
Bloc 4.9% (+0.4)
People's: 3.6% (+0.3)

NDP definitely benefitting the most as expected.

[the506]

I have the Wikipedia candidate list a quick skim to see which riding has the most candidates. Ottawa Centre appears to be the winner with a whopping twelve:

• All the major parties
• Two independents
• Animal Protection
• Christian Heritage
• Communist
• Libertarian
• National Citizens Alliance

That will make for an intreresting candidates debate.

There seem to be a lot more minor party candidates in general this election, almost as many as 1993 when some ridings had as many as 13 and most big city seats as a rule had at least 9-10.

(Full disclosure: my brother is one of them, he's running as a Libertarian in Fredericton.)

[Hatman 🍁]

I have the Wikipedia candidate list a quick skim to see which riding has the most candidates. Ottawa Centre appears to be the winner with a whopping twelve:

• All the major parties
• Two independents
• Animal Protection
• Christian Heritage
• Communist
• Libertarian
• National Citizens Alliance

That will make for an intreresting candidates debate.

Ottawa Centre always has interesting debates. Also fun (related?) fact: Ottawa Centre had the highest turnout of all ridings in 2015.

[DC Al Fine]

I think if any impact of Black face, it forced Liberals to focus more on policies rather than gotcha moments.  If you look at since made several announcements of policies that would seem popular, although 3 of the 4 steal from other parties or are to counter others.  An assault weapons ban which is probably to trip up the Tories since either they support it and help the PPC split the right or as they have oppose it and they can attack them as being in the pockets of the gun lobby.  Most who feel civilians should be allowed to own these are already voting Tory so little downside and plenty up. 

Then there is the rise in basic personal exemption so I think that was in response to Scheer's universal tax cut which was more progressive and helped middle class more than Trudeau's 2015 middle class tax cut, so this was a way to regain the upper hand on being the party for middle class and those wishing to join it.  Also promise lower cell phone bills and now pharmacare which are also taken right from the NDP.

Biggest weakness is their policies unlike Tories and NDP haven't been fully costed and that leaves them somewhat vulnerable there.  Not on left flank as I don't think those on left are too concerned about higher taxes (since assume it will only hit higher income earners who they want to tax more) or deficits, but amongst centrist voters may concern some if it becomes a focal point.  I think Wynne and Horwarth fell short as people liked their promises, but felt they were unaffordable.  People aren't allergic to deficits, but they like to see some fiscal anchor even if not a balanced budget to show governments not spending like crazy.  Also for tax hikes on rich, PBO website shows only $400 million increase per % so unless they go after top three brackets, not just top, very little revenue to tap there.  Perhaps though copying from NDP, they will include a wealth tax and raise capital gains tax inclusion to 2/3 or 75% as both those would bring in far more revenue although still not quite enough to cover all promises, but at least a lot closer. 

Link? That data sounds interesting.

I have the Wikipedia candidate list a quick skim to see which riding has the most candidates. Ottawa Centre appears to be the winner with a whopping twelve:

• All the major parties
• Two independents
• Animal Protection
• Christian Heritage
• Communist
• Libertarian
• National Citizens Alliance

That will make for an intreresting candidates debate.

Ottawa Centre always has interesting debates. Also fun (related?) fact: Ottawa Centre had the highest turnout of all ridings in 2015.

Any good stories come to mind?

[mileslunn]

I think if any impact of Black face, it forced Liberals to focus more on policies rather than gotcha moments.  If you look at since made several announcements of policies that would seem popular, although 3 of the 4 steal from other parties or are to counter others.  An assault weapons ban which is probably to trip up the Tories since either they support it and help the PPC split the right or as they have oppose it and they can attack them as being in the pockets of the gun lobby.  Most who feel civilians should be allowed to own these are already voting Tory so little downside and plenty up. 

Then there is the rise in basic personal exemption so I think that was in response to Scheer's universal tax cut which was more progressive and helped middle class more than Trudeau's 2015 middle class tax cut, so this was a way to regain the upper hand on being the party for middle class and those wishing to join it.  Also promise lower cell phone bills and now pharmacare which are also taken right from the NDP.

Biggest weakness is their policies unlike Tories and NDP haven't been fully costed and that leaves them somewhat vulnerable there.  Not on left flank as I don't think those on left are too concerned about higher taxes (since assume it will only hit higher income earners who they want to tax more) or deficits, but amongst centrist voters may concern some if it becomes a focal point.  I think Wynne and Horwarth fell short as people liked their promises, but felt they were unaffordable.  People aren't allergic to deficits, but they like to see some fiscal anchor even if not a balanced budget to show governments not spending like crazy.  Also for tax hikes on rich, PBO website shows only $400 million increase per % so unless they go after top three brackets, not just top, very little revenue to tap there.  Perhaps though copying from NDP, they will include a wealth tax and raise capital gains tax inclusion to 2/3 or 75% as both those would bring in far more revenue although still not quite enough to cover all promises, but at least a lot closer. 

Link? That data sounds interesting.

I have the Wikipedia candidate list a quick skim to see which riding has the most candidates. Ottawa Centre appears to be the winner with a whopping twelve:

• All the major parties
• Two independents
• Animal Protection
• Christian Heritage
• Communist
• Libertarian
• National Citizens Alliance

That will make for an intreresting candidates debate.

Ottawa Centre always has interesting debates. Also fun (related?) fact: Ottawa Centre had the highest turnout of all ridings in 2015.

Any good stories come to mind?

Here it is which is the PBO site http://readyreckoner.ca/ .  Limits how far you can change things, but you can multiply based on ratio to get rough estimate.  Actually easiest way to fund promises is to raise GST back to 7% as that is a whopping $16 billion.  Main reason Harper cut that is to make new federal programs less likely as unlike income tax cuts rates, this has a much bigger bite and would be political suicide for any party to reverse.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think if any impact of Black face, it forced Liberals to focus more on policies rather than gotcha moments.  If you look at since made several announcements of policies that would seem popular, although 3 of the 4 steal from other parties or are to counter others.  An assault weapons ban which is probably to trip up the Tories since either they support it and help the PPC split the right or as they have oppose it and they can attack them as being in the pockets of the gun lobby.  Most who feel civilians should be allowed to own these are already voting Tory so little downside and plenty up. 

Then there is the rise in basic personal exemption so I think that was in response to Scheer's universal tax cut which was more progressive and helped middle class more than Trudeau's 2015 middle class tax cut, so this was a way to regain the upper hand on being the party for middle class and those wishing to join it.  Also promise lower cell phone bills and now pharmacare which are also taken right from the NDP.

Biggest weakness is their policies unlike Tories and NDP haven't been fully costed and that leaves them somewhat vulnerable there.  Not on left flank as I don't think those on left are too concerned about higher taxes (since assume it will only hit higher income earners who they want to tax more) or deficits, but amongst centrist voters may concern some if it becomes a focal point.  I think Wynne and Horwarth fell short as people liked their promises, but felt they were unaffordable.  People aren't allergic to deficits, but they like to see some fiscal anchor even if not a balanced budget to show governments not spending like crazy.  Also for tax hikes on rich, PBO website shows only $400 million increase per % so unless they go after top three brackets, not just top, very little revenue to tap there.  Perhaps though copying from NDP, they will include a wealth tax and raise capital gains tax inclusion to 2/3 or 75% as both those would bring in far more revenue although still not quite enough to cover all promises, but at least a lot closer. 

Link? That data sounds interesting.

I have the Wikipedia candidate list a quick skim to see which riding has the most candidates. Ottawa Centre appears to be the winner with a whopping twelve:

• All the major parties
• Two independents
• Animal Protection
• Christian Heritage
• Communist
• Libertarian
• National Citizens Alliance

That will make for an intreresting candidates debate.

Ottawa Centre always has interesting debates. Also fun (related?) fact: Ottawa Centre had the highest turnout of all ridings in 2015.

Any good stories come to mind?

I seem to recall some candidate shenanigans in the past, but nothing specific comes to mind. I've only been to one myself. and all I can remember about it is Marijuana Party candidate standing out.

Things are much more boring in Ottawa South.

[136or142]

Anybody else think Justin Trudeau is insane? 

He didn't realize the Aladdin costume was racist?  Look at the incredible attention to detail.  He not only knew it was racist, he wore it because it was racist.  He wanted to be the center of attention.  I don't think he's just an extreme narcissist though, I've come to the conclusion that Justin Trudeau reality is being an actor in real life. 

I don't know if this is all that serious though for a Prime Minister.  From what I've read, Mackenzie King was also quite insane and he was Prime Minister for around 22 years.

[136or142]

Anybody else think Justin Trudeau is insane?  

He didn't realize the Aladdin costume was racist?  Look at the incredible attention to detail.  He not only knew it was racist, he wore it because it was racist.  He wanted to be the center of attention.  I don't think he's just an extreme narcissist though, I've come to the conclusion that Justin Trudeau's reality is play acting through life.

Amazingly, I don't know if this is disqualifying though for a Prime Minister.  From what I've read, Mackenzie King was also quite insane and he was Prime Minister for around 22 years.

[mileslunn]

Anybody else think Justin Trudeau is insane?  

He didn't realize the Aladdin costume was racist?  Look at the incredible attention to detail.  He not only knew it was racist, he wore it because it was racist.  He wanted to be the center of attention.  I don't think he's just an extreme narcissist though, I've come to the conclusion that Justin Trudeau's reality is play acting through life.

Amazingly, I don't know if this is disqualifying though for a Prime Minister.  From what I've read, Mackenzie King was also quite insane and he was Prime Minister for around 22 years.

I always thought that of him, although didn't Reagan mention all politicians are actors.  Still I think Liberals made a big mistake in choosing him.  Marc Garneau probably would have not built the excitement Trudeau did, but if he was PM, would probably have a 10 point lead and be coasting to a second term.  Off course maybe Mulcair would have won instead as 2015 was more about getting rid of Harper vs. electing anyone.  If Mulcair won, I think if party stood behind him, he would be in good shape for re-election, but problem is much of the party felt he wasn't left wing enough so if he saw a drop like Trudeau, party would have knifed him in an instant and put in a more left wing leader.  Trudeau is safe as majority of Liberal MPs wouldn't be MPs if it wasn't for him.

[DC Al Fine]

Anybody else think Justin Trudeau is insane? 

He didn't realize the Aladdin costume was racist?  Look at the incredible attention to detail.  He not only knew it was racist, he wore it because it was racist.  He wanted to be the center of attention.  I don't think he's just an extreme narcissist though, I've come to the conclusion that Justin Trudeau reality is being an actor in real life. 

I don't know if this is all that serious though for a Prime Minister.  From what I've read, Mackenzie King was also quite insane and he was Prime Minister for around 22 years.

I believe the technical term to describe him is "goober".

[Pericles]

Anybody else think Justin Trudeau is insane?  

He didn't realize the Aladdin costume was racist?  Look at the incredible attention to detail.  He not only knew it was racist, he wore it because it was racist.  He wanted to be the center of attention.  I don't think he's just an extreme narcissist though, I've come to the conclusion that Justin Trudeau's reality is play acting through life.

Amazingly, I don't know if this is disqualifying though for a Prime Minister.  From what I've read, Mackenzie King was also quite insane and he was Prime Minister for around 22 years.

I always thought that of him, although didn't Reagan mention all politicians are actors.  Still I think Liberals made a big mistake in choosing him.  Marc Garneau probably would have not built the excitement Trudeau did, but if he was PM, would probably have a 10 point lead and be coasting to a second term.  Off course maybe Mulcair would have won instead as 2015 was more about getting rid of Harper vs. electing anyone.  If Mulcair won, I think if party stood behind him, he would be in good shape for re-election, but problem is much of the party felt he wasn't left wing enough so if he saw a drop like Trudeau, party would have knifed him in an instant and put in a more left wing leader.  Trudeau is safe as majority of Liberal MPs wouldn't be MPs if it wasn't for him.

Only Trudeau could have won 2015 for the Liberals imo. The NDP would have replaced the Liberals without him.

[mileslunn]

Anybody else think Justin Trudeau is insane?  

He didn't realize the Aladdin costume was racist?  Look at the incredible attention to detail.  He not only knew it was racist, he wore it because it was racist.  He wanted to be the center of attention.  I don't think he's just an extreme narcissist though, I've come to the conclusion that Justin Trudeau's reality is play acting through life.

Amazingly, I don't know if this is disqualifying though for a Prime Minister.  From what I've read, Mackenzie King was also quite insane and he was Prime Minister for around 22 years.

I always thought that of him, although didn't Reagan mention all politicians are actors.  Still I think Liberals made a big mistake in choosing him.  Marc Garneau probably would have not built the excitement Trudeau did, but if he was PM, would probably have a 10 point lead and be coasting to a second term.  Off course maybe Mulcair would have won instead as 2015 was more about getting rid of Harper vs. electing anyone.  If Mulcair won, I think if party stood behind him, he would be in good shape for re-election, but problem is much of the party felt he wasn't left wing enough so if he saw a drop like Trudeau, party would have knifed him in an instant and put in a more left wing leader.  Trudeau is safe as majority of Liberal MPs wouldn't be MPs if it wasn't for him.

Only Trudeau could have won 2015 for the Liberals imo. The NDP would have replaced the Liberals without him.

That's probably true although one caveat is it was Niqab issue that caused NDP to plummet in Quebec and thus fall to third thus causing progressives elsewhere to shift to Liberals.  That would have happened no matter who was leader as even when NDP was in lead, quite inefficent as big lead in BC and Quebec, but behind elsewhere although competitive.  Either way long term Trudeau may do more harm than good but we shall see.

[Pericles]

Anybody else think Justin Trudeau is insane?  

He didn't realize the Aladdin costume was racist?  Look at the incredible attention to detail.  He not only knew it was racist, he wore it because it was racist.  He wanted to be the center of attention.  I don't think he's just an extreme narcissist though, I've come to the conclusion that Justin Trudeau's reality is play acting through life.

Amazingly, I don't know if this is disqualifying though for a Prime Minister.  From what I've read, Mackenzie King was also quite insane and he was Prime Minister for around 22 years.

I always thought that of him, although didn't Reagan mention all politicians are actors.  Still I think Liberals made a big mistake in choosing him.  Marc Garneau probably would have not built the excitement Trudeau did, but if he was PM, would probably have a 10 point lead and be coasting to a second term.  Off course maybe Mulcair would have won instead as 2015 was more about getting rid of Harper vs. electing anyone.  If Mulcair won, I think if party stood behind him, he would be in good shape for re-election, but problem is much of the party felt he wasn't left wing enough so if he saw a drop like Trudeau, party would have knifed him in an instant and put in a more left wing leader.  Trudeau is safe as majority of Liberal MPs wouldn't be MPs if it wasn't for him.

Only Trudeau could have won 2015 for the Liberals imo. The NDP would have replaced the Liberals without him.

That's probably true although one caveat is it was Niqab issue that caused NDP to plummet in Quebec and thus fall to third thus causing progressives elsewhere to shift to Liberals.  That would have happened no matter who was leader as even when NDP was in lead, quite inefficent as big lead in BC and Quebec, but behind elsewhere although competitive.  Either way long term Trudeau may do more harm than good but we shall see.

Trudeau also got the Liberals to a position where they were on 30% and able to capitalize on a strategic voting rush rather than be swamped by it. If the NDP were on 35% and the Liberals on 25% the NDP would have benefited from anti-Harper strategic voting.