Absolutely not. NM-Sen was clearly always Safe D even though Heinrich was polling sub-50 against a split field.
Fair enough, strong third parties mess up the formula, but in general - unless the candidate regularly polls high enough to guarantee a win regardless of where the undecideds go.
Exactly. Back in the summer of 2016, most polls showed Clinton in the upper 40s in Michigan and Pennsylvania while Trump only upper 30s. Reason Trump won is most undecided as well as the Libertarians who were around 8% swung over to him while Clinton remained in the high 40s. If consistently over 50% then pretty safe.
That being said in multi-party elections outside the US, being over 50% is not usually necessary, you can look at polls relative to historical data and make an educated guess based on that as actually outside the US (excluding countries with run off elections and only for final round) it is very rare for the winner to get over 50%. US is the only G7 country on first round where the winner routinely tops the 50% (France does too but on a runoffs not first round while extremely rare in Canada, never in Germany or UK, sometimes for slates in Japan and Italy, but almost never for a single party).