As I was explaining in another thread a few days ago, this Indiana poll shows exactly why models do not counteract their fundamentals predictions too fast based on a small number of challenger-friendly polls.
However, the undecideds in the Indiana poll do look like they would probably tilt Republican. Whites without college degrees have 12% undecided, while whites with college degrees have only 2% undecided. And the former group is definitely more Republican than the latter.
That's not what I'm seeing on the CNN exit polls.
https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/indiana/senateThey show that Young was actually +26 (60-34) with whites no degree and +15 (55-40) with white college graduates. So, an 11-point difference.
