I know everyone says “early voting numbers don’t matter” and the at might be accurate in other states but in AZ early voting is 80% of the election and as much of a proud dem in AZ that I am, we aren’t doing so good.
AZ-08 AZ-08 AZ-08
how many times does this need to be said
Wrong, CNN said Sinema lead Early Vote 54-43 and Marist said 51-47. Both of these Polls are just pure FANTASY.
GOP currently has a 116K Ballot Advantage in AZ. For starters for Sinema to be tied in the Early Vote she would need to have NPA Voters 70-30 in her favour. That is not happening, no way. ZERO Chance. Even if Sinema holds D's in Early Voting 94-6 and McSally holds Republicans let's say 88-12 Sinema still would need NPA Voters to break her way 68-32 or something like that.
So, the notion that Sinema is leading EV is completely Baloney.
FWIW, in the NYT/Siena poll, if you look at the microdata you can see how people with different party registrations who said they early voted voted, to see how they came up with McSally leading early voters. Caveat being that this is a small sample size, but if you want to actually see how they got their #s, you can see.
Counting unweighted #s of people, out of 178 people in the poll who said they early voted, 69 (39%) were registered Rs, 58 (33%) were registered Ds, and 51 (29%) were registered Ds.
The registered Ds split their vote 49-7-2 (Sinema-McSally-Refused_to_say)
The registered Rs split their vote 8-59-2 (Sinema-McSally-Refused_to_say)
The registered Indepents/NPAs split their vote 32-18-1 (Sinema-McSally-Refused_to_say)
In percentage terms, that is Sinema winning registered Ds 84%-12%, McSally winning registered Rs 86%-12%, and Sinema winning registered Independents/NPAs 63%-35%.
And overall, that comes out to Sinema winning the early voters 50%-47%.
Then if you apply the NYT/Siena polls weighting, that gets you to Sinema leading among early voters 51%-45%.
Granted, this does not prove that Sinema is leading with early voters, and these are small sub-samples. But this is how Sinema can be leading with early voters despite Rs having a registration advantage.
And indeed, Sinema is handily winning voters with no party affiliation in the sample, which is how she can win even if there is an R registration advantage. Granted also the sample could be somewhat off, and it is quite possible that McSally could be winning early voters (but probably not by much). We have had several polls all with Sinema winning or competitive among the early vote subsample. That does suggest that despite party registration, Sinema will at least be fairly competitive in the early vote, and then we have to see what the election day vote is like.
You are just being deliberately obtuse or willfully blind, you are smart enough that there is no way that you do not understand this.
Party registration /= votes. Duh.
