Fox Polls: AZ: Tie ; IN: Donnelly +7; MO: Tie; TN: Blackburn +9; ND: Cramer +9

[libertpaulian]

N U T at those Indiana numbers!!!

Air Claire still tied...

Bredesen and Heitkamp are done.

McSally can't lead even in a FOX poll.

[libertpaulian]

Maybe those Chnage Research polls from Indiana weren't so craptackular after all.

[libertpaulian]

As I was explaining in another thread a few days ago, this Indiana poll shows exactly why models do not counteract their fundamentals predictions too fast based on a small number of challenger-friendly polls.

However, the undecideds in the Indiana poll do look like they would probably tilt Republican. Whites without college degrees have 12% undecided, while whites with college degrees have only 2% undecided. And the former group is definitely more Republican than the latter.

in a state like indiana, not necessarily

Young won whites no college by 15%.

[libertpaulian]

As I was explaining in another thread a few days ago, this Indiana poll shows exactly why models do not counteract their fundamentals predictions too fast based on a small number of challenger-friendly polls.

However, the undecideds in the Indiana poll do look like they would probably tilt Republican. Whites without college degrees have 12% undecided, while whites with college degrees have only 2% undecided. And the former group is definitely more Republican than the latter.

in a state like indiana, not necessarily

Young won whites no college by 15%.

That's not what I'm seeing on the CNN exit polls. https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/indiana/senate

They show that Young was actually +26 (60-34) with whites no degree and +15 (55-40) with white college graduates. So, an 11-point difference.

You're right.  I mistakenly looked at the overall non-college vote and not the white non-college vote.

[libertpaulian]

Regarding Indiana, the suburban vote is VERY pro-Donnelly.  Assuming he wins IN-05, then I'll bet my assets that Danny O'Connor wins in OH-12.

[libertpaulian]

I don't want to hear sh**t anymore like "let's wait for Fox". lol they missed Indiana by 13 points. That's inexcusable.

Fox polls have this phenomenon where they get the Democratic candidate's vote % just right, but all the undecideds break for the Republican.

See: Doug Jones vs Roy Moore, and these 2018 polls

Indiana is a reverse Nevada in that polling tends to underestimate the GOP (whereas in Nevada, it underestimates the Democrats).

John Gregg went from leading in the polls by mid-single digits all throughout the post-Labor Day polling to being statistically tied with Eric Holcomb in the final two weeks.  We all know who ended up becoming Governor...