Fox Polls: AZ: Tie ; IN: Donnelly +7; MO: Tie; TN: Blackburn +9; ND: Cramer +9

[Calthrina950]

The IN poll is garbage (WAY too high undecideds). The rest are not very revelatory.

Indiana does seem to be unrealistic. I can see Donnelly leading, but not by that margin. The NBC/Marist poll is probably closer to the truth. The other polls, however, do seem very reasonable. Blackburn and Cramer are virtually guaranteed to win at this point, while Sinema and McCaskill each have a 50-50 shot. McCaskill's prospects actually appear to be a little better than I thought, though I have never written her off completely.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Senate Races:
AZ: Sinema 46% McSally 46%
IN: Donnelly 45% Braun 38%
MO: McCaskill 43% Hawley 43%
TN: Bredesen 41% Blackburn 50%
ND: Heitkamp 42% Cramer 51%
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-north-dakota-senate-poll-10-31-2018


https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-trump-approval-remains-high-in-senate-battleground-states

I hope these are the real final numbers on November 6

AZ: Sinema 48% McSally 52%
IN: Donnelly 45% Braun 50% Brenton 5%
MO: McCaskill 45% Hawley 53% Jaspethwhateverhisname is 2%
TN: Bredesen 43% Blackburn 57%
ND: Heitkamp 42% Cramer 58%




note that in December 2017 they had it Moore 40% Jones 50% undecided 8% and the REAL FINAL RESULT was Moore 48% Jones 50% !!!!!!!!!!!

[Calthrina950]

Senate Races:
AZ: Sinema 46% McSally 46%
IN: Donnelly 45% Braun 38%
MO: McCaskill 43% Hawley 43%
TN: Bredesen 41% Blackburn 50%
ND: Heitkamp 42% Cramer 51%
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-north-dakota-senate-poll-10-31-2018


https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-trump-approval-remains-high-in-senate-battleground-states

real final numbers on November 6

AZ: Sinema 48% McSally 52%
IN: Donnelly 45% Braun 50% Brenton 5%
MO: McCaskill 45% Hawley 53% Jaspethwhateverhisname is 2%
TN: Bredesen 43% Blackburn 57%
ND: Heitkamp 42% Cramer 58%

You seem very confident about these races. While I would not be surprised if Blackburn and Cramer win by double digits, I highly doubt that Hawley, Braun, or McSally will receive an absolute majority, let alone win by more than 3-4 points.

[Mondale]

A 50 50 Senate looks like the most likely outcome. Fundamentals win again

[new_patomic]

note that in December 2017 they had it Moore 40% Jones 50% undecided 8% and the REAL FINAL RESULT was Moore 48% Jones 50% !!!!!!!!!!!

Imagine trying to extrapolate polling error from a December special election in Alabama to every poll nationally.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

note that in December 2017 they had it Moore 40% Jones 50% undecided 8% and the REAL FINAL RESULT was Moore 48% Jones 50% !!!!!!!!!!!

Imagine trying to extrapolate polling error from a December special election in Alabama to every poll nationally.

Well who knows, maybe it's a legit strategy

[MT Treasurer]

They also polled NV: Heller +5

/s

[Yank2133]

Senate Races:
AZ: Sinema 46% McSally 46%
IN: Donnelly 45% Braun 38%
MO: McCaskill 43% Hawley 43%
TN: Bredesen 41% Blackburn 50%
ND: Heitkamp 42% Cramer 51%
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-north-dakota-senate-poll-10-31-2018


https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-trump-approval-remains-high-in-senate-battleground-states

real final numbers on November 6

AZ: Sinema 48% McSally 52%
IN: Donnelly 45% Braun 50% Brenton 5%
MO: McCaskill 45% Hawley 53% Jaspethwhateverhisname is 2%
TN: Bredesen 43% Blackburn 57%
ND: Heitkamp 42% Cramer 58%




note that in December 2017 they had it Moore 40% Jones 50% undecided 8% and the REAL FINAL RESULT was Moore 48% Jones 50% !!!!!!!!!!!

You know, I don't mind you thinking R's will sweep all these races. But Hawley winning by 7 is stuff of hacks.

[IceSpear]

They also polled NV: Heller +5

/s

LOL, that wouldn't even surprise me if it was true.

[DataGuy]

As I was explaining in another thread a few days ago, this Indiana poll shows exactly why models do not counteract their fundamentals predictions too fast based on a small number of challenger-friendly polls.

However, the undecideds in the Indiana poll do look like they would probably tilt Republican. Whites without college degrees have 12% undecided, while whites with college degrees have only 2% undecided. And the former group is definitely more Republican than the latter.

[Joe "I Have No Empathy" Biden]

I got excited about the IN margin until I saw Donnelly at 45%. Damn.

[President Joe Biden. It's OVER.]

Maybe those Chnage Research polls from Indiana weren't so craptackular after all.

[cvparty]

As I was explaining in another thread a few days ago, this Indiana poll shows exactly why models do not counteract their fundamentals predictions too fast based on a small number of challenger-friendly polls.

However, the undecideds in the Indiana poll do look like they would probably tilt Republican. Whites without college degrees have 12% undecided, while whites with college degrees have only 2% undecided. And the former group is definitely more Republican than the latter.

in a state like indiana, not necessarily

[Chief Justice Keef]

LOL, Donnelly +23 among Indies. The Marist Crap Show continues.

Ya'll can gloat about that Poll BUT FOX NEWS will have apparently IN-SEN Poll as well @6pm.

[Yank2133]

LOL, Donnelly +23 among Indies. The Marist Crap Show continues.

Ya'll can gloat about that Poll BUT FOX NEWS will have apparently IN-SEN Poll as well @6pm.

lmao!

[President Joe Biden. It's OVER.]

As I was explaining in another thread a few days ago, this Indiana poll shows exactly why models do not counteract their fundamentals predictions too fast based on a small number of challenger-friendly polls.

However, the undecideds in the Indiana poll do look like they would probably tilt Republican. Whites without college degrees have 12% undecided, while whites with college degrees have only 2% undecided. And the former group is definitely more Republican than the latter.

in a state like indiana, not necessarily

Young won whites no college by 15%.

[MT Treasurer]

I don’t see AZ voting seven points to the right of IN just because Donnelly is the incumbent, and I highly doubt that Republicans have the same chance of winning AZ as MO.

[IceSpear]

all those Republicans will overperform. McSally will win by around +4, Braun will probably win by at least +2, Hawley will win by +6, Blackburn and Cramer will win by double digits.

With this type of clairvoyance, why are you wasting time on this forum and not winning the lottery daily?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Should have polled WV

[DataGuy]

As I was explaining in another thread a few days ago, this Indiana poll shows exactly why models do not counteract their fundamentals predictions too fast based on a small number of challenger-friendly polls.

However, the undecideds in the Indiana poll do look like they would probably tilt Republican. Whites without college degrees have 12% undecided, while whites with college degrees have only 2% undecided. And the former group is definitely more Republican than the latter.

in a state like indiana, not necessarily

Young won whites no college by 15%.

That's not what I'm seeing on the CNN exit polls. https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/indiana/senate

They show that Young was actually +26 (60-34) with whites no degree and +15 (55-40) with white college graduates. So, an 11-point difference.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

all those Republicans will overperform. McSally will win by around +4, Braun will probably win by at least +2, Hawley will win by +6, Blackburn and Cramer will win by double digits.

With this type of clairvoyance, why are you wasting time on this forum and not winning the lottery daily?

maybe I am winning the lottery daily. You don't know me

[KingSweden]

all those Republicans will overperform. McSally will win by around +4, Braun will probably win by at least +2, Hawley will win by +6, Blackburn and Cramer will win by double digits.

With this type of clairvoyance, why are you wasting time on this forum and not winning the lottery daily?

+1 for use of “clairvoyance”

[President Joe Biden. It's OVER.]

As I was explaining in another thread a few days ago, this Indiana poll shows exactly why models do not counteract their fundamentals predictions too fast based on a small number of challenger-friendly polls.

However, the undecideds in the Indiana poll do look like they would probably tilt Republican. Whites without college degrees have 12% undecided, while whites with college degrees have only 2% undecided. And the former group is definitely more Republican than the latter.

in a state like indiana, not necessarily

Young won whites no college by 15%.

That's not what I'm seeing on the CNN exit polls. https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/indiana/senate

They show that Young was actually +26 (60-34) with whites no degree and +15 (55-40) with white college graduates. So, an 11-point difference.

You're right.  I mistakenly looked at the overall non-college vote and not the white non-college vote.

[Georgia Democrat in 2021]

Not bad.  A D+1 result in the Senate is still very much in play.  Looking at the Trump approvals by state, Arizona seems too bullish on Trump and Indiana seems too bearish on Trump.

Would be nice to see a D+1 but I think 50:50 is probably best case scenario.  Heitkamp looks unlikely to survive, and unfortunately, it looks tough for Bredesen.  We'll have to hope for flips in Arizona and Nevada--and then look to a special election in 2019.  Still, it's looking better than a couple of weeks ago.

[President Joe Biden. It's OVER.]

Regarding Indiana, the suburban vote is VERY pro-Donnelly.  Assuming he wins IN-05, then I'll bet my assets that Danny O'Connor wins in OH-12.