IN - NBC/Marist: Donnelly +2

[libertpaulian]

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/31/indiana-senate-race-poll-democrat-joe-donnelly-leads-republican-mike-braun.html

If you include Lovable Lucy, his lead expands to three!

This will definitely hinge on turnout.

[libertpaulian]

The trend isn't great unfortunately, but at least he still leads.

True, but I think that's more of a matter of the candidates consolidating their bases than anything.

[libertpaulian]

42% college educated in this poll, how doe that compare to 2016?

In the Bayh vs. Young race, 47% of Hoosier voters were college grads, and they went 51-45% Young.  Non-college was 53%, and they broke 54-39% Young.

[libertpaulian]

N U T

[libertpaulian]

libertpaulian: 42% college educated, too high?

The Bayh vs. Young race was 47% college, 53% non-college.  Young won college by 6% and non-college by 15%.

[libertpaulian]

Marist has found surprisingly good numbers for Democrats pretty much everywhere this year. Not saying they’re necessarily wrong, but it’s something to keep in mind.

Of course, there's one exception to that...I'll leave everyone to guess what state that is.

Sounds familiar, doesn’t it? Also worth noting that this was Donnelly +6 last month. I’d still rather be Braun than Donnelly, #bold, I know.

With the Kavanaugh backlash being applied heavily to Donnelly and the Butternut Democrat counties trending further R, I'd rather be Donnelly, honestly.  With Brenton as a factor, Joe's numbers increase.  The fact that he's close to 50% is good.

[libertpaulian]

LOL, Donnelly +23 among Indies. The Marist Crap Show continues.

Ya'll can gloat about that Poll BUT FOX NEWS will have apparently IN-SEN Poll as well @6pm.

Eastern or Central?

[libertpaulian]

Marist has been bad all year long. They have D's AHEAD everywhere except TX & TN. I'll have to check their Polls from 2014 cuz if they underestimating R-Turnout the same way back then R's certainly looking pretty good in ND, IN, MO, TX and TN.

Trumps JA with Independents is -2 in Indiana yet Donnelly +23 over Braun with that Group. It doesn't make sense.

You.can approve of the President yet vote D, you know.

Using your logic, Joe Manchin would be getting destroyed by Pat Morrisey right now.

[libertpaulian]

Marist has been bad all year long. They have D's AHEAD everywhere except TX & TN. I'll have to check their Polls from 2014 cuz if they underestimating R-Turnout the same way back then R's certainly looking pretty good in ND, IN, MO, TX and TN.

Trumps JA with Independents is -2 in Indiana yet Donnelly +23 over Braun with that Group. It doesn't make sense.

You.can approve of the President yet vote D, you know.

Using your logic, Joe Manchin would be getting destroyed by Pat Morrisey right now.

I don't dispute that BUT +23 is a little bit too much, don't you think? Same in AZ where they have Sinema +27 among Indies where Trumps JA is clearly on the rise.

Possibly, given Donnelly beat Mourdock with indys by a lesser margin.  However, Dems are energized this year, and Braun is a less-than-exciting candidate with no real message. Weirder things happen.

[libertpaulian]

2016, can you please stop unskewing using crosstabs like indies? This poll had 29% indies among likely voters, which is n=144. That would have an MOE of over 8 points with Indiana's population.

It isn't just Indies. Braun gets only 60% of the Evangelical Christian Vote...not even close to right. These Marist Polls have HUGE Flaws no matter how you slice it.

Donnelly doesn't have the gay pride marching, abortion-loving, coastal elite image that Hillary did.  While he won't do well with them, he won't get blown out of the water with Hillary margins, either.  In 2008, exit polls showed Obama winning about 30% of Indiana evangelicals, and he was already tarnished with the coastal elite image in the primary.

[libertpaulian]

2016, can you please stop unskewing using crosstabs like indies? This poll had 29% indies among likely voters, which is n=144. That would have an MOE of over 8 points with Indiana's population.

It isn't just Indies. Braun gets only 60% of the Evangelical Christian Vote...not even close to right. These Marist Polls have HUGE Flaws no matter how you slice it.

Donnelly doesn't have the gay pride marching, abortion-loving, coastal elite image that Hillary did.  While he won't do well with them, he won't get blown out of the water with Hillary margins, either.  In 2008, exit polls showed Obama winning about 30% of Indiana evangelicals, and he was already tarnished with the coastal elite image in the primary.

Are Indiana evangelicals more willing to vote D than in the South, because 25% D seems high admittedly.

Donnelly got 27% of the born-again vote in 2012.