IN - NBC/Marist: Donnelly +2

[KingSweden]

Is FOX going to do another of their massive polling dumps, or Indiana only?

They usually release all at once

[KingSweden]

Why are people calling a +2 poll a toss up?

Because it’s close enough to a tie that a turnout differential could send it the other way (or, by the same token, see a bigger Donnelly win). Totally reasonable nomenclature

[KingSweden]

2016, can you please stop unskewing using crosstabs like indies? This poll had 29% indies among likely voters, which is n=144. That would have an MOE of over 8 points with Indiana's population.

It isn't just Indies. Braun gets only 60% of the Evangelical Christian Vote...not even close to right. These Marist Polls have HUGE Flaws no matter how you slice it.

Donnelly doesn't have the gay pride marching, abortion-loving, coastal elite image that Hillary did.  While he won't do well with them, he won't get blown out of the water with Hillary margins, either.  In 2008, exit polls showed Obama winning about 30% of Indiana evangelicals, and he was already tarnished with the coastal elite image in the primary.

Are Indiana evangelicals more willing to vote D than in the South, because 25% D seems high admittedly.

Southern evangelicals are considerably more partisan (also, “evangelical” is a term so overbroad it’s effectively vague)