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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  IN - NBC/Marist: Donnelly +2		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: IN - NBC/Marist: Donnelly +2  (Read 2284 times)
gf20202
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« on: October 31, 2018, 04:00:22 PM »
Finally a quality Indiana poll!

New NBC/Marist poll of Indiana (likely voters):
Donnelly (D) 48%
Braun (R) 46%

(Was Donnelly 49%, Braun 43% in Sept)

Three-way:
Donnelly (D) 45%
Braun (R) 42%
Brenton (L) 7%

(Was Donnelly +3 here in Sept)

Oct 24-28
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Diogenes of Bethesda
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« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2018, 04:00:50 PM »
That's terrifyingly close, but I think Donnelly is a slim favorite here.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2018, 04:02:10 PM »
The king lives!!!!!
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2018, 04:02:42 PM »
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/31/indiana-senate-race-poll-democrat-joe-donnelly-leads-republican-mike-braun.html

If you include Lovable Lucy, his lead expands to three!

This will definitely hinge on turnout.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2018, 04:02:59 PM »
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2018, 04:03:21 PM »
Marist has found surprisingly good numbers for Democrats pretty much everywhere this year. Not saying they’re necessarily wrong, but it’s something to keep in mind.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2018, 04:03:31 PM »
The trend isn't great unfortunately, but at least he still leads.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2018, 04:04:32 PM »
Quote from: Fremont Speaker ON Progressive on October 31, 2018, 04:03:31 PM
The trend isn't great unfortunately, but at least he still leads.
True, but I think that's more of a matter of the candidates consolidating their bases than anything.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2018, 04:04:43 PM »
42% college educated in this poll, how doe that compare to 2016?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2018, 04:05:15 PM »
libertpaulian: 42% college educated, too high?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2018, 04:05:39 PM »
Toss up -> Toss up
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: October 31, 2018, 04:06:31 PM »
Quote from: Garfield County Republicans 4 Candidate Quality on October 31, 2018, 04:03:21 PM
Marist has found surprisingly good numbers for Democrats pretty much everywhere this year. Not saying they’re necessarily wrong, but it’s something to keep in mind.

Of course, there's one exception to that...I'll leave everyone to guess what state that is.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #12 on: October 31, 2018, 04:06:33 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 31, 2018, 04:05:15 PM
libertpaulian: 42% college educated, too high?

I believe the guy who runs Marist's polling said they weigh by income instead of education, which produces similar results (they tested education weighs once and it wasn't any different)
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Ebsy
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« Reply #13 on: October 31, 2018, 04:06:38 PM »
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #14 on: October 31, 2018, 04:06:56 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 31, 2018, 04:04:43 PM
42% college educated in this poll, how doe that compare to 2016?
In the Bayh vs. Young race, 47% of Hoosier voters were college grads, and they went 51-45% Young.  Non-college was 53%, and they broke 54-39% Young.
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #15 on: October 31, 2018, 04:07:10 PM »
I'll take it. Important Donnelly had better favorability numbers than Braun.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #16 on: October 31, 2018, 04:07:43 PM »
Quote from: libertpaulian on October 31, 2018, 04:06:56 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 31, 2018, 04:04:43 PM
42% college educated in this poll, how doe that compare to 2016?
In the Bayh vs. Young race, 47% of Hoosier voters were college grads, and they went 51-45% Young.  Non-college was 53%, and they broke 54-39% Young.

So given this is a midterm, 42% might be too low.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #17 on: October 31, 2018, 04:07:51 PM »
N U T
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Ebsy
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« Reply #18 on: October 31, 2018, 04:09:23 PM »
Here is the education breakdown in the probably flawed exit poll fwiw:
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #19 on: October 31, 2018, 04:09:39 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 31, 2018, 04:05:15 PM
libertpaulian: 42% college educated, too high?
The Bayh vs. Young race was 47% college, 53% non-college.  Young won college by 6% and non-college by 15%.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #20 on: October 31, 2018, 04:10:04 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on October 31, 2018, 04:06:31 PM
Quote from: Garfield County Republicans 4 Candidate Quality on October 31, 2018, 04:03:21 PM
Marist has found surprisingly good numbers for Democrats pretty much everywhere this year. Not saying they’re necessarily wrong, but it’s something to keep in mind.

Of course, there's one exception to that...I'll leave everyone to guess what state that is.

Sounds familiar, doesn’t it? Also worth noting that this was Donnelly +6 last month. I’d still rather be Braun than Donnelly. #bold, I know.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #21 on: October 31, 2018, 04:11:25 PM »
Quote from: Garfield County Republicans 4 Candidate Quality on October 31, 2018, 04:10:04 PM
Quote from: IceSpear on October 31, 2018, 04:06:31 PM
Quote from: Garfield County Republicans 4 Candidate Quality on October 31, 2018, 04:03:21 PM
Marist has found surprisingly good numbers for Democrats pretty much everywhere this year. Not saying they’re necessarily wrong, but it’s something to keep in mind.

Of course, there's one exception to that...I'll leave everyone to guess what state that is.

Sounds familiar, doesn’t it? Also worth noting that this was Donnelly +6 last month. I’d still rather be Braun than Donnelly, #bold, I know.
With the Kavanaugh backlash being applied heavily to Donnelly and the Butternut Democrat counties trending further R, I'd rather be Donnelly, honestly.  With Brenton as a factor, Joe's numbers increase.  The fact that he's close to 50% is good.
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2016
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« Reply #22 on: October 31, 2018, 04:13:18 PM »
LOL, Donnelly +23 among Indies. The Marist Crap Show continues.

Ya'll can gloat about that Poll BUT FOX NEWS will have apparently IN-SEN Poll as well @6pm.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #23 on: October 31, 2018, 04:14:16 PM »
Quote from: 2016 on October 31, 2018, 04:13:18 PM
LOL, Donnelly +23 among Indies. The Marist Crap Show continues.

Ya'll can gloat about that Poll BUT FOX NEWS will have apparently IN-SEN Poll as well @6pm.
Eastern or Central?
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Yellowhammer
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« Reply #24 on: October 31, 2018, 04:23:19 PM »
Quote from: libertpaulian on October 31, 2018, 04:14:16 PM
Quote from: 2016 on October 31, 2018, 04:13:18 PM
LOL, Donnelly +23 among Indies. The Marist Crap Show continues.

Ya'll can gloat about that Poll BUT FOX NEWS will have apparently IN-SEN Poll as well @6pm.
Eastern or Central?

Eastern
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