WI-Marquette: Tied

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Ugh!

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This election just might be disappointing. I guess it is possible that Walker and Baldwin can get re-elected at the same time.

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MU has been loyal to Walker all cycle.

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I will be shocked if there is an 11 point difference between the two races.

SAME! What the heck is happening?

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Honestly Baldwin likely puts Evers over the finish line.

Doubt it. If he can't keep it within 10 pts. of her, that speaks to the unique strength of the Walker campaign. 

Ugh.

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If Walker actually wins re-election at the same time that Stabenow/Whitmer/Wolf/Casey landslide, I think that answers the question of which Trump state would be the toughest nut to crack of those three.

The difference here is that Walker is the only incumbent Republican because Wisconsin doesn't have term limits. Evers is also not a great candidate. He is not the least bit inspiring and cannot talk smoothly to save his life. This doesn't mean Wisconsin is a redder state.

In other words, Evers isn't a skilled liar like Walker. Walker is good at sounding convincing.

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This is my last post of the day, but I will end with this: If Evers does indeed win, then I will be regarding MU Law as Walker's secret R internal from now on!

I can't wait until the vaguely subpar Emerson poll gets released this Friday, which will most likely show Evers with a lead! Also, Suffolk might be releasing a poll for WI soon, too!

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This is my last post of the day, but I will end with this: If Evers does indeed win, then I will be regarding MU Law as Walker's secret R internal from now on!

I can't wait until the vaguely subpar Emerson poll gets released this Friday, which will most likely show Evers with a lead! Also, Suffolk might be releasing a poll for WI soon, too!

That is not logical. There is clearly a margin of error here and this poll result is a tie. If Evers wins by 6-7, then yes, this poll will have been way off. But if he wins by 2-3, this poll was not bad. I think you're reading this as a Walker win when it's not.

Fair enough.

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I am very concerned with this poll's sample of non-white voters. Yes, Wisconsin is a very white state, but there is no way that Walker is getting 37% of non-white voters or Vukmir getting 30%. I've looked at the precinct numbers for the entire decade in the City of Milwaukee (where like 90% of non-whites in the state live) and Republicans are lucky to get over 10% in those places typically.

I know I said my last post would be my last on this thread, but I must say the crosstabs seem really off!

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This poll is good to Walker.

https://twitter.com/ScottWalker/status/1057696261363642370

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This poll is good to Walker.

https://twitter.com/ScottWalker/status/1057696261363642370

Are you done panic posting yet, friend?

Not until Election Day!

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I'm just curious: What methodology does MU Law use to make the governor's race tilt R compared to other pollsters?

BTW I do think Evers is favored, but MU Law always destroys any confidence I have surrounding this race.....until the next poll shows Evers with a lead (which will most likely happen with the Emerson poll tomorrow).

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I'm just curious: What methodology does MU Law use to make the governor's race tilt R compared to other pollsters?

BTW I do think Evers is favored, but MU Law always destroys any confidence I have surrounding this race.....until the next poll shows Evers with a lead (which will most likely happen with the Emerson poll tomorrow).

Memerson?!  Seriously?! 

There'd better be a CNN, FOX News, or Marist poll this weekend to accompany that one.

Marist is just as reliable as MU, right?

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Okay. So, I will apologize for my panic posts on this thread - I'm just hoping that MU is wrong and the race won't be this close. However, my concerns over this poll have waned down a little after doing some research and looking at some of the crosstabs, I've found some of them to be questionable.

First of all, I doubt 2 percent of the electorate will be Evers-Vukmir voters:

https://twitter.com/PollsAndVotes/status/1058135740813590528

Secondly, I doubt Evers will do 10 points worse than Burke did in Milwaukee in 2014. Could something be off, or am I misinterepreting anything?