WI-Marquette: Tied

[libertpaulian]

This race will probably be even closer than Kemp-Abrams.

[libertpaulian]

If Walker wins this thing, he truly does have nine lives.

[libertpaulian]

Don't get complacent, Dems. Keep fighting...even when it looks hopeless right now.

Tie = Hopeless?

Those on the fence were prolly just shy GOPers in the height of the Pittsburgh shooting...they are coming home as the Dem bump wears off in a week.

Um, Election Day will be OVER in a week.

[libertpaulian]

If this race truly is a tie, Evers is going to need Dallet-like margins in Dane and Milwaukee to eke this out.

[libertpaulian]

This is different from past years, usually Walker dominates with Indys:

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1057689577866125314

One noticeable thing: Walker has consolidated his base (96%) more than Evers has (93%).  However, the gap in indys is good for Evers.

[libertpaulian]

Favorables are about the same:

Evers - 42/41
Walker - 48/49

Not a good sign this close to Election Day how many people still have no opinion on Evers

I didn't have much of an opinion on Todd Young in 2016, yet I voted for him anyway.  Guess what?  He won in a landslide.

This is my last post of the day, but I will end with this: If Evers does indeed win, then I will be regarding MU Law as Walker's secret R internal from now on!

I can't wait until the vaguely subpar Emerson poll gets released this Friday, which will most likely show Evers with a lead! Also, Suffolk might be releasing a poll for WI soon, too!

That is not logical. There is clearly a margin of error here and this poll result is a tie. If Evers wins by 6-7, then yes, this poll will have been way off. But if he wins by 2-3, this poll was not bad. I think you're reading this as a Walker win when it's not.

Exactly.  This race is going to be a pure base turnout election, with a few moderates and undecideds thrown in.

[libertpaulian]

Breakdown of the major groups:

Let's compare these to 2016, shall we?

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Trump won this group by a 23% margin last time.

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Clinton and Trump tied with this group.

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Trump won this demographic by 16%.

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Clinton won this group by 23%.

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Clinton won this group by 55%.

So, some good and some bad for each candidate.  Evers has cut into the white non-college men slightly and has made significant inroads with non-college women.  However, Walker has made dents of his own with college-educated white men and women, as well as with non-whites.

[libertpaulian]

Breakdown of the major groups:

Let's compare these to 2016, shall we?

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Trump won this group by a 23% margin last time.

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Clinton and Trump tied with this group.

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Trump won this demographic by 16%.

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Clinton won this group by 23%.

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Clinton won this group by 55%.

So, some good and some bad for each candidate.  Evers has cut into the white non-college men slightly and has made significant inroads with non-college women.  However, Walker has made dents of his own with college-educated white men and women, as well as with non-whites.

Yep, and with college educated being more likely to vote...easy win.

Wisconsin is a less-educated state, though.  55% of Wisconsin voters had a high school diploma or less in 2016, a good year for Republicans in Wisconsin.

[libertpaulian]

This poll is good to Walker.

https://twitter.com/ScottWalker/status/1057696261363642370

You really think he's going to spin this negatively?!

[libertpaulian]

I'm just curious: What methodology does MU Law use to make the governor's race tilt R compared to other pollsters?

BTW I do think Evers is favored, but MU Law always destroys any confidence I have surrounding this race.....until the next poll shows Evers with a lead (which will most likely happen with the Emerson poll tomorrow).

Memerson?!  Seriously?! 

There'd better be a CNN, FOX News, or Marist poll this weekend to accompany that one.

[libertpaulian]

I'm just curious: What methodology does MU Law use to make the governor's race tilt R compared to other pollsters?

BTW I do think Evers is favored, but MU Law always destroys any confidence I have surrounding this race.....until the next poll shows Evers with a lead (which will most likely happen with the Emerson poll tomorrow).

Memerson?!  Seriously?! 

There'd better be a CNN, FOX News, or Marist poll this weekend to accompany that one.

Marist is just as reliable as MU, right?

Marist is a gold standard poll, IMO.  If a pollster like that shows even the slightest hint of a good sign for Walker, THEN I'd say it's time to hit the panic button.